Lagniappe

A sweeping Democratic victory may have reshaped the political landscape, but what does it mean for investors? This week, Greg and Doug Stokes break down the election results, Wall Street's volatile reaction, and the sectors that could emerge as winners and losers.

Key Takeaways

00:01 - The Democratic wave and election surprises

03:15 - Wall Street reacts to the election results

05:39 - Market volatility and the presidential cycle

08:25 - SpaceX, Tesla, and the impact of political uncertainty

09:04 - Could Louisiana/New Orleans benefit from shifting investment?

10:55 - Data centers, inflation, and construction costs

12:33 - Why politics matters less to long-term investors

13:35 - The importance of financial planning and diversification

14:45 - The continued growth of Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Big Tech is taking a hit, but the broader market is holding its ground. This week on the Lagniappe Podcast, Greg and Doug Stokes examine the latest earnings disappointments among major tech companies, the changing influence of the Magnificent Seven, and why recent market volatility could present opportunities for long-term investors.

The brothers also discuss the increasingly attractive risk-reward dynamics in the bond market, including Treasury and municipal bonds, before turning their attention to the upcoming midterm elections and California's proposed wealth tax.

Plus, they explore the Federal Reserve's latest decision, the unintended consequences of higher interest rates, and how the ongoing conflict in Iran could influence inflation and financial markets.

Key Takeaways

00:17 - Halloween and fall in New Orleans

02:40 - The Magnificent Seven and diversification

05:04 - The opportunity in bonds

07:22 - Midterm elections and prediction markets

09:31 - California's proposed billionaire tax

11:06 - The Fed's pause and a December outlook

12:46 - Can higher interest rates fuel inflation?

14:21 - Labor shortages, Iran, and oil prices

15:43 - Congress and the War Powers Act

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

With midterm elections approaching, Greg and Doug examine the forces shaping financial markets, from shifting political expectations and falling Treasury yields, to concerns surrounding AI investment. They explore how oil exports from the Persian Gulf have surpassed prewar levels despite ongoing conflict, and why rising energy costs could weigh on economic growth even as interest rates decline. 

The conversation then turns to France, where widespread protests highlight deeper economic challenges. From government debt and stagnant growth to Europe's struggle with innovation, the brothers discuss the difficult choices facing France and what they could mean for the broader European economy.

Key Takeaways

00:17 – Midterm elections and market uncertainty

02:42 – Falling Treasury yields and concerns over AI investment

05:21 – Oil exports surge despite Middle East conflict

07:54 – How rising oil prices impact economic activity

09:34 – What a time for the Saints to play in Paris 

11:07 – France's debt crisis and economic stagnation

12:40 – Europe's innovation gap and economic challenges

16:02 – The political history behind Europe's economic struggles

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week on the Lagniappe Podcast, Doug and Greg Stokes unpack what's really driving higher Treasury yields, and why stronger economic growth, rather than runaway inflation, may be the bigger story. They explore the resilience of the U.S. dollar, the relationship between bond yields and long-term returns, and how rising diesel prices could complicate the inflation outlook. Plus, the guys discuss the risks facing housing development, AI's surprising role in hurricane forecasting, and how SpaceX's satellite technology could disrupt the traditional telecommunications industry.

Key Takeaways

00:01 — Hurricane forecasting gets an AI upgrade

02:28 — What's really driving higher Treasury yields? 

03:37 — The U.S. dollar's staying power 

09:30 — Why starting yields matter for bond returns

12:15 — Diesel prices and the inflation outlook 

15:25 — The housing shortage hiding around the corner 

16:54 — SpaceX takes aim at the telecom giants 

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Markets are knocking on the door of record highs even as the latest jobs report shows signs of a cooling labor market. Greg and Doug unpack why bad economic news can sometimes be good news for stocks, what’s keeping long-term interest rates elevated, and why today’s higher bond yields change the risk-reward equation for investors. 

They also look at improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the increasingly important question hanging over markets: will the massive investment in AI infrastructure ultimately produce the productivity and profits investors are counting on? Plus, why an uncertain outcome for AI may be one more argument for maintaining a balanced portfolio.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Bad news in the economy is good news for the markets

04:01 — Why higher bond yields provide more protection

07:40 — Why interest-rate forecasts keep missing the mark

09:45 — Oil flows return through the Strait of Hormuz

11:52 — What’s keeping long-term interest rates elevated?

15:40 — The market’s massive bet on AI

18:09 — Why AI uncertainty makes the case for balance

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Interest rates are climbing, but the market doesn’t seem particularly bothered. Greg and Doug dig into why the 10-year Treasury has pushed above 5%, arguing that stronger economic growth, persistent inflation, and the massive AI infrastructure buildout may be doing more to drive rates than fears about U.S. debt. They also look at the relationship between Iran, oil prices and inflation; why higher rates may hurt traditional parts of the economy without slowing AI investment; and what the approaching midterm elections could mean for markets. Finally, they examine the historically strong stretch that tends to follow the first three quarters of a midterm year, and why falling political uncertainty could provide another tailwind for investors.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Why 5% interest rates aren’t scaring the market

04:57 — Iran, oil and the inflation expectation

06:39 — Are the U.S. and Iran moving closer to a deal?

08:02 — Why higher rates aren’t slowing the AI buildout

11:15 — The historically strongest stretch of the midterm cycle

14:45 — Why markets like falling uncertainty

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

The Fed is hiking again, bond yields are back above 5%, and inflation remains stubborn, but the economy and consumer continue to show surprising strength. Greg and Doug break down what the latest rate move means for markets, how the Iran conflict and massive infrastructure spending are pushing prices higher, and why retail sales and employment data don’t look particularly recessionary. Then they turn to AI, the latest warnings about its existential risks, and whether calls for tighter regulation are really about safety or established AI companies trying to protect themselves from competition.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — The Fed raises rates as inflation stays hot

04:13 — Infrastructure, Iran and what’s driving inflation

06:31 — Why Iran could be the key to markets and inflation

09:44 — The American consumer keeps spending

11:06 — AI isn’t destroying the job market

13:27 — Is AI really going to destroy humanity?

15:03 — AI regulation and the case for regulatory capture

17:11 — Putting AI doomsday fears in perspective

19:21 — Guardrails, cyber defense and managing AI risk

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and why good economic news can sometimes be bad news for markets when it raises the prospect of higher interest rates. They discuss the massive investment fueling the AI infrastructure boom, its impact on inflation and the bond market, and why Americans remain pessimistic about the economy despite strong employment and record markets. They also weigh the potential risks and enormous opportunities surrounding AI before closing with a reflection on NYC and the lasting significance of September 11.

Key Takeaways

00:17  -  A strong jobs report shakes up rate expectations

03:29  -  Why the recent job numbers are dominated by women 

05:09  -  When good economic news becomes bad market news

06:35  -  How AI is reshaping the bond market

09:21  -  New inflationary pressures

11:03  -  Why Americans still feel bad about the economy

15:14  -  Fear vs. optimism for AI

17:35  -  New York, 25 years after September 11

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Markets are digesting shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, stubbornly high interest rates, and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran. Doug and Greg discuss why government debt, not 5% interest rates, may be the bigger concern, how higher yields are changing the bond market, and why geopolitical tensions haven't derailed stocks. Plus, they look at what prediction markets are saying about the upcoming midterm elections, explain why politics shouldn't dictate your long-term investment strategy, and the good news behind interest rates.

Key Takeaways

00:02 — The markets react to the Fed

03:00 — Government spending & the cost of debt

05:05 — Are 5% interest rates really that high?

08:10 — Households are in better shape than governments

09:30 — Iran's impact on rates, oil, & inflation

15:43 — What prediction markets say about the midterms

19:26 — Why politics shouldn't change your portfolio

20:36 — The good news about 5% bond yields

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Louisiana is having an economic moment. Doug and Greg talk about the massive new SpaceX investment and why it could be one of the biggest development wins in state history. Then, they turn to the markets, where Nvidia’s staggering growth and continued AI infrastructure spending are showing few signs of slowing down. The guys also discuss why today’s AI boom looks fundamentally different from the speculative excesses of 2020–2021, what an upcoming wave of major IPOs could signal, and what they’re watching for as the market continues to push near record highs.

Key Takeaways

[00:00] — Markets await the Fed at Jackson Hole

[03:15] — SpaceX’s massive Louisiana investment

[06:08] — The bullish economic case for Louisiana

[10:15] — Nvidia & the AI spending boom

[13:12] — Is an IPO wave still coming?

[18:47] — The market fundamentally still looks great

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.