Lagniappe

Markets are knocking on the door of record highs even as the latest jobs report shows signs of a cooling labor market. Greg and Doug unpack why bad economic news can sometimes be good news for stocks, what’s keeping long-term interest rates elevated, and why today’s higher bond yields change the risk-reward equation for investors. 

They also look at improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the increasingly important question hanging over markets: will the massive investment in AI infrastructure ultimately produce the productivity and profits investors are counting on? Plus, why an uncertain outcome for AI may be one more argument for maintaining a balanced portfolio.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Bad news in the economy is good news for the markets

04:01 — Why higher bond yields provide more protection

07:40 — Why interest-rate forecasts keep missing the mark

09:45 — Oil flows return through the Strait of Hormuz

11:52 — What’s keeping long-term interest rates elevated?

15:40 — The market’s massive bet on AI

18:09 — Why AI uncertainty makes the case for balance

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The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Interest rates are climbing, but the market doesn’t seem particularly bothered. Greg and Doug dig into why the 10-year Treasury has pushed above 5%, arguing that stronger economic growth, persistent inflation, and the massive AI infrastructure buildout may be doing more to drive rates than fears about U.S. debt. They also look at the relationship between Iran, oil prices and inflation; why higher rates may hurt traditional parts of the economy without slowing AI investment; and what the approaching midterm elections could mean for markets. Finally, they examine the historically strong stretch that tends to follow the first three quarters of a midterm year, and why falling political uncertainty could provide another tailwind for investors.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Why 5% interest rates aren’t scaring the market

04:57 — Iran, oil and the inflation expectation

06:39 — Are the U.S. and Iran moving closer to a deal?

08:02 — Why higher rates aren’t slowing the AI buildout

11:15 — The historically strongest stretch of the midterm cycle

14:45 — Why markets like falling uncertainty

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

The Fed is hiking again, bond yields are back above 5%, and inflation remains stubborn, but the economy and consumer continue to show surprising strength. Greg and Doug break down what the latest rate move means for markets, how the Iran conflict and massive infrastructure spending are pushing prices higher, and why retail sales and employment data don’t look particularly recessionary. Then they turn to AI, the latest warnings about its existential risks, and whether calls for tighter regulation are really about safety or established AI companies trying to protect themselves from competition.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — The Fed raises rates as inflation stays hot

04:13 — Infrastructure, Iran and what’s driving inflation

06:31 — Why Iran could be the key to markets and inflation

09:44 — The American consumer keeps spending

11:06 — AI isn’t destroying the job market

13:27 — Is AI really going to destroy humanity?

15:03 — AI regulation and the case for regulatory capture

17:11 — Putting AI doomsday fears in perspective

19:21 — Guardrails, cyber defense and managing AI risk

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and why good economic news can sometimes be bad news for markets when it raises the prospect of higher interest rates. They discuss the massive investment fueling the AI infrastructure boom, its impact on inflation and the bond market, and why Americans remain pessimistic about the economy despite strong employment and record markets. They also weigh the potential risks and enormous opportunities surrounding AI before closing with a reflection on NYC and the lasting significance of September 11.

Key Takeaways

00:17  -  A strong jobs report shakes up rate expectations

03:29  -  Why the recent job numbers are dominated by women 

05:09  -  When good economic news becomes bad market news

06:35  -  How AI is reshaping the bond market

09:21  -  New inflationary pressures

11:03  -  Why Americans still feel bad about the economy

15:14  -  Fear vs. optimism for AI

17:35  -  New York, 25 years after September 11

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The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Markets are digesting shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, stubbornly high interest rates, and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran. Doug and Greg discuss why government debt, not 5% interest rates, may be the bigger concern, how higher yields are changing the bond market, and why geopolitical tensions haven't derailed stocks. Plus, they look at what prediction markets are saying about the upcoming midterm elections, explain why politics shouldn't dictate your long-term investment strategy, and the good news behind interest rates.

Key Takeaways

00:02 — The markets react to the Fed

03:00 — Government spending & the cost of debt

05:05 — Are 5% interest rates really that high?

08:10 — Households are in better shape than governments

09:30 — Iran's impact on rates, oil, & inflation

15:43 — What prediction markets say about the midterms

19:26 — Why politics shouldn't change your portfolio

20:36 — The good news about 5% bond yields

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Louisiana is having an economic moment. Doug and Greg talk about the massive new SpaceX investment and why it could be one of the biggest development wins in state history. Then, they turn to the markets, where Nvidia’s staggering growth and continued AI infrastructure spending are showing few signs of slowing down. The guys also discuss why today’s AI boom looks fundamentally different from the speculative excesses of 2020–2021, what an upcoming wave of major IPOs could signal, and what they’re watching for as the market continues to push near record highs.

Key Takeaways

[00:00] — Markets await the Fed at Jackson Hole

[03:15] — SpaceX’s massive Louisiana investment

[06:08] — The bullish economic case for Louisiana

[10:15] — Nvidia & the AI spending boom

[13:12] — Is an IPO wave still coming?

[18:47] — The market fundamentally still looks great

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg discuss rising Treasury yields, America’s growing debt load, the wild financials surrounding the LA Dodgers, and why the U.S. consumer and labor market may be much stronger than the prevailing economic narrative suggests.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Rising interest rates & the bond market

03:51 — The reality of America’s $40 Trillion debt

08:00 — Why investors don’t want to own bonds

11:10 — The financial engineering behind the LA Dodgers

15:29 — What retail earnings say about the U.S. consumer

16:48 — The K-shaped economy & wage growth

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Markets are hitting new highs, corporate earnings are growing rapidly and inflation continues to cool. Doug and Greg discuss why the economic backdrop remains strong and why today’s market looks very different from the tech bubble of the late 1990s.

They also dig into the very different ways Americans are experiencing inflation, from homeowners with low-rate mortgages to buyers facing today’s borrowing costs. From there, the conversation turns to the American traveler, the extraordinary spending power of U.S. households, and what packed airports and booming tourism might tell us about the economy.

Finally, they guys look at signs that the housing recession may be ending, how rising wealth could be allowing some Americans to retire earlier than expected, and whether cryptocurrency still has a long-term role or is simply waiting for its next speculative wave.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Markets hit new highs as earnings surge

02:03 — Inflation is cooling

04:50 — Just how wealthy are Americans?

10:59 — Why it’s hard to to call this any sort of tech bubble

13:55 — Is the housing recession over?

15:15 — Rising wealth and early retirement

16:45 — Is cryptocurrency here to stay?

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week on the Lagniappe Podcast, Doug and Greg break down an unusual economic picture: job growth has stalled, interest rates remain elevated, and inflation continues to complicate the Fed’s next move — yet corporate earnings and the stock market remain surprisingly strong.

They discuss why bad news for the labor market can sometimes be good news for stocks, how lower rates could unlock pent-up housing and real estate development, and why oil prices could play an important role in the inflation outlook. Plus, they dig into impressive S&P 500 earnings growth and why AI-driven productivity could give investors plenty to be optimistic about over the long term.

Key Takeaways

00:17 — Jobs Report and the Market

02:01 — Why Bad Economic News Can Be Good for Stocks

03:11 — How Higher Interest Rates Slow the Economy

04:27 — Could Lower Oil Prices Give the Fed an Opening?

07:59 — What Happens If Interest Rates Fall + A Coming Housing Supply Problem

11:44 — S&P 500 Earnings Are Surging

13:16 — Why AI Makes Greg Bullish Long Term

15:44 — The Big Takeaway on Earnings

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg discuss one of the market's most volatile weeks in recent memory. After a sharp selloff following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady while signaling a more hawkish outlook, markets rebounded dramatically thanks to blockbuster earnings from Microsoft and encouraging AI-related results. The guys explore why individual stock volatility remains unusually high, why the broader market looks healthier than headlines suggest, and how strong corporate earnings continue to support economic growth. They also touch on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and what the current political landscape could mean heading into the 2028 election.

Key Takeaways

[0:00] – Market rebound

[2:29] – Why individual stock picking has become so difficult

[4:19] – Volatility beneath the surface of the market

[6:55] – Middle East tensions, oil prices, and the market moving on

[12:35] – Corporate earnings are exceeding expectations

[15:08] – Is America really experiencing a K-shaped economy?

[16:30] – The road to the 2028 election

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.