In this week-before-Thanksgiving episode, Doug and Greg Stokes guess what we’ll be discussing around the dinner table next week. They combat the negativity/bubble talk and break down why we’re not in a euphoric period. They also examine historical data on normal, small market corrections, the life and cost-saving data on autonomous driving, and the productivity gains/cost reduction that will come from this tech revolution.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - Small market corrections are normal

[07:52] - The rise of autonomous driving is going to change the world

[11:20] - Inflation talk is back, but technology is deflationary

View Transcript

Links

Fear and Greed Index

The probability of default for AAA-rated to CCC/C rated

Tesla FSD: 6.4B miles, only ~2 reported fatalities

Bill McBride - The Future is So Bright

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Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes discuss the recent end of the government shutdown and the market rally that followed. They also check in on the narrative that the Magnificent 7 is carrying the market, the need to cut real estate red tape, and a financial reality check for AI. They finish by diving into the concept of 'inflection bubbles' and how speculative investments can coordinate future growth.

Key Takeaways

[00:16] - The government shutdown resolution

[04:03] - Is the market still driven by the Mag 7?

[06:46] - The need for cutting real estate red tape 

[13:11] - AI’s financial reality check

[16:09] - Speculative bubbles can create lasting infrastructure

View Transcript

Links

Carolson: 4 of the Mag 7 are now up less than 10% on the year

Linburg: building new apartments - even "luxury" - reduces rents down the spectrum.

JPMorgan warns AI boom needs $650 billion a year, just for 10% return

Thompson: The benefits of bubbles

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

After lamenting the struggles of our local sports teams, Doug and Greg delve into the New York City mayoral results and the economic implications. The conversation shifts to economic updates, including jobs, inflation, interest rates, and housing. The guys finish by looking at what history tells us about bear markets, recessions, and long-term strategies. 

Key Takeaways

[01:45] - The economic themes from Zohran Mamdani’s win in the NYC mayoral race

[11:45] - Jobs, inflation, and housing

[14:44] - Checking in on the long-term bond market

[16:33] - Not finding any indicators of a looming recession

View Transcript

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

In this Halloween week edition of Lagniappe, Greg and Doug discuss market momentum following the Fed’s latest rate cut, a thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions, and standout corporate earnings. They explore how AI-driven productivity is reshaping the labor market, from tech layoffs to rising demand for skilled trades, and close with reflections on political undercurrents and industry innovation cycles.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Rate cuts and market growth

[04:41] - Productivity gains and labor market shifts due to AI advancements.

[08:39] - How economic disparities fuel political changes

[12:01] - The K-shaped economy and corporate earnings

[14:40] - The innovator’s dilemma for large companies

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Links

K-Shaped Economy Also for Corporates

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Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We continue our weekly trend of talking about markets hovering around all-time highs and the AI revolution. We start with what’s driving the positivity in the bond and stock markets and what the rent growth numbers tell us about the direction of inflation. We then shift to discussing the energy demand needed for this massive AI build-out, plus the derivatives that come along with this unprecedented investment. We’ll finish by talking sports as a betting cycle rocks the NBA and Shohei continues to do things we’ve never seen before. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - What’s driving positivity in the bond and stock markets?

[03:24] - Single-family rent growth hits lowest level in 15 years

[05:48] - AI: build-out, not hype cycle?

[08:29] - Energy demand related to the AI build-out

[13:27] - The derivative explosion from AI investment

[16:07] - NBA betting scandal + Shohei is awesome

View Transcript

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, Greg and Doug focus on foreign policy, most notably the looming China Trade War, and why the markets remain relatively unfazed. They also discuss the anticipation of lower interest rates, the Fed’s dual mandate, America’s AI domination, and optimism for another era of technological innovation that will lead to prosperity, despite short-term disruptions.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - The markets are shrugging off Chinese tariff developments

[05:45] - How the U.S. is trying to counter China’s manufacturing prowess

[09:01] - Israel/Gaza peace deal and Kushner’s influence in the Middle East

[13:34] - Trending back towards some sort of normal interest rate environment

[16:15] - The Fed’s dual mandate

[19:41] - Every serious technological innovation in history has led to prosperity

[23:01] - The U.S. has a massive lead in the AI/data center race

View Transcript

Links

Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future

GS: We Estimate That Tariff Increases Have Boosted Core PCE Prices by 0.44% So Far This Year and Will Boost Them by a Further 0.6% Eventually

The median S&P 500 stock is in a 15% drawdown

America remains the global leader in AI with ~2,000 more data centers than the next 10 largest countries combined.

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

It’s all AI this week, as there isn’t much jobs/inflation news amidst a government shutdown.  We’ll start with OpenAI’s AMD investment and focus on the implications of circular, vendor financing in the AI sector. We’ll explore similarities to the dot-com boom, market sentiment from the “intelligent”, and investing at all-time highs, and discuss how crazy it is to look at the top 10 companies just 10 years ago. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Looking at vendor financing in the AI world

[07:13] - How AI is affecting the job market

[10:13] - We’re always optimistic long-term. Here’s why we’re optimistic short-term

[13:22] - Looking back at the top 10 companies just 10 years ago

View Transcript

Links

Seeking Alpha: AMD-The OpenAI Deal Is A Real Game Changer To Savor

WSJ: The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There

Zaccardi: This bull market could go a lot longer and a lot higher JPMAM

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes wrap up the 3rd quarter with the markets again at all-time highs. As expectations for corporate profit growth, Energy/AI investments, S&P 500 Earnings, and GDP continue to go higher, this episode of the Lagniappe Podcast answers the questions: are we heading for a recession, and is it a good time to be invested in stocks?

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - October baseball

[03:16] - The effect (or non-effect) of the government shutdown

[04:25] - Q3 Report: all systems go

[13:10] - Can real estate join the positive party?

View Transcript

Links

Zaccardi: GS - The simple story is that non-recessionary rate cuts are usually positive for equities

Bilello: US Rents were down 0.8% over the last year, the 28th consecutive month with a YoY decline

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Coming off the heels of NVIDIA’s one hundred billion dollar investment in OpenAI, Doug and Greg Stokes discuss the current state of AI and where it’s headed, as they explore the parallels between recent growth and the tech bubble of the late 90s. The conversation also touches on safe haven assets, market performance after all-time highs, exuberance indicators, and a huge college football weekend coming up. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - AI, self-driving cars, and the relation to the late 90s tech bubble

[05:31] - The AI bubble isn’t here yet

[09:18] - Why stocks continue to reach new highs

[13:46] - Indicators of exuberance

[17:00] - The staggering investment going into energy and defense

[20:34] - Looking at a big college football weekend

View Transcript

Links

Derek Thompson on AI’s timeline and how it relates to self-driving cars.

Goldman’s Total Positioning Indicator is STILL slightly underweight US equities.

Yardeni: Gold as a percent of total reserves. How much is left to go?

TikTok investment club

Zaccardi: US data center energy consumption (TWh) and as % of total US power demand (RHS)

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes dive into the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, discussing the implications of a long-awaited quarter-point interest rate cut. They examine historical data on what happens when the Fed cuts interest rates at all-time highs and explore the impact on the S&P 500, small- and mid-cap stocks, and the bond market. They also discuss IPO trends, what’s really behind a weak labor market, and the potential for a market bubble.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - The Fed finally cut rates

[06:55] - The start of the next wave of enthusiasm in the markets

[12:01] - Job market, AI, and a potential bubble

View Transcript

Links

17 charts to consider as stocks rally and the economy cools

S&P 500 heatmap

MSNBC guest has no idea what Upstart does

Torsten Sløk: No Alpha Left in Public Markets

What has happened historically when the Fed cuts at all-time highs?

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.