While we await updated Fed Day data, we renew our call for the Fed to cut rates, discuss the muted market response to international conflicts, and examine the important role of bonds in providing stability in investment portfolios. We also talk about Vanguard's less-than-stellar market forecast as we continue to stress the importance of maintaining a diversified, long-term investment approach 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - It’s time for the Fed to cut rates

[04:07] - The market reacts to Israel, Iran, and oil

[13:35] - Fools errands: forecasts & short-term strategies

[22:56] - The role of bonds in investment portfolios

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Around 26% of the world’s oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets NOT viewing Israel/Iran as safe haven event, but a crude oil supply shock story.

Vanguard forecasts US stocks to return 3.9% annually over the next decade.  

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg dive into the most recent inflation data, which was softer than expected, examining how and why disinflation is currently taking hold in the economy. Taking in real-time shelter numbers, they also discuss the limited effects of tariffs so far, market optimism, and why the Fed should cut rates soon. Finally, heading into the U.S. Open weekend, they debate their two favorite sports and find a surprisingly profitable investment on the course. 

Key Takeaways

[0:16] - Reacting to CPI data and how shelter factors in

[03:10] - Inflation, disinflation, jobs, and a September rate cut

[09:10] - CEO, Small Business, Consumer confidence all up

[12:38] - Musk vs. Trump, China deals, and S&P performance

[15:27] - Scottie Scheffler is the best investment you can make

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U.S. Inflation Remains Muted, With Limited Effects From Tariffs

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumps to the highest since February

Forget about the stock market, betting on Scottie Scheffler is the best investment around

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg begin this week’s episode with a critique of Jamie Dimon's forecasts regarding the bond market and financial predictions in general. They explore the rise of autonomous driving technology, the world-changing impact of American investment in innovation, and the influence of the political climate on markets and investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

[0:18] - Our reactions to Jamie Dimon’s bond market hurricane prediction

[04:50] - Forecasts are essentially worthless

[07:31] - The autonomous driving revolution is here

[10:27] - Magnificent 7 reinvesting cash flows with growth

[15:27] - Political bias should not influence investment decisions.

[18:02] - Market reaction to the new tax bill and Musk’s opposition

[23:16] - Could weak economic data/jobless claims lead to fed rate cuts?

View Transcript

Links

Jamie Dimon Says Crack in the Bond Market Is ‘Going to Happen’

Over the last ~100 years, the stock market has been up 76% of the time over all rolling 12-month periods

Barry Ritholtz Warns: Don't Mix Investing and Identity Politics

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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated

Doug and Greg discuss the recent court ruling on tariffs and the implications for the market. Highlighted by Nvidia's impressive earnings, they’ll also talk about the ongoing AI revolution and how it will affect inflation, decentralization, and the job market. They finish by looking at the housing market, which now has the highest recorded rate of sellers vs. buyers.

Key Takeaways

[0:18] - Tariff turmoil: the court's decision and market reactions

[12:37] - Nvidia earnings & the AI revolution

[17:27] - Bracing for job disruption that will come from AI

[22:16] - Shifting real estate market dynamics

View Transcript

Links

Federal court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law

Goldman, Morgan Stanley Say Trump Can Deploy Other Tariff Tools

Trump erupts when asked about 'TACO trade'

The Tech Industry Is Huge—and Europe’s Share of It Is Very Small

Cullen Roche’s Three Things – Exponential AI

The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record.

The repeat homebuyer age was 40 in 2000. It's 61 now.

Apartment List national rent data

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

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Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, we’re focusing on the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating. How did the market react? Does it raise real concerns? Does it have real long-term effects? We’ll also delve into the implications of the new tax bill and its potential ramifications on the economy. We wrap with a look at hurricane season and the gripping story of New Orleans’ jail escapees. 

Key Takeaways

[0:19] - Greg sums up an entire week of news in 3 minutes

[03:03] - Unpacking the Moody's downgrade

[08:02] - Narratives, treasuries, and the deficit

[12:11] - The new tax bill could stimulate economic growth

[18:30] - Hurricane forecasts = market prognostications?

[21:21] - Shawshank, Nola version

View Transcript

Links

What Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating means for your money

NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast warns of a busy season

You can bet on when New Orleans jail escapees will be captured

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

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Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

The last 40 days have seen the market sharply decline and come roaring back, and now, the market is positive on the year. We’ll look at how pending trade deals and tariff reductions have positively impacted the markets and discuss the strength of the American economy and consumer. We also talk real estate dynamics, interest rate projections, and how our beloved home state is poised for an economic boon. 

Key Takeaways

[0:19] - Harsh decline leads to roaring back

[07:57] - The strength of the American economy and consumer

[11:32] - The real estate market and household balance sheets

[19:35] - Louisiana/Nola poised for economic success

View Transcript

Links

If an investor starting with $10,000 had missed the best five investment days between 1/1/80 and 12/31/22, they would’ve missed out on ~$411,000 in growth

Companies aren't withdrawing guidance, but there's a big caveat

Mortgage applications up as borrowers respond to growing inventory

GS: U.S. household balance sheets remain in fine health

Louisiana wins again with Hyundai plant

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We start by commemorating Warren Buffett's retirement, which marks a significant moment in investing history. We’ll examine his philosophies and Berkshire Hathaway’s remarkable gains under Buffett's leadership. We then shift to the market rebounding after April volatility, noting strong job creation and consumer spending. As tariff-related headlines drive market movements, we look at AI investments, the potential for stagflation, and how the Federal Reserve's decisions will significantly impact market direction.

Key Takeaways

[0:19] - Warren Buffett's retirement and legacy

[08:13] - The market’s rebound after a volatile April

[10:54] - AI investments expected to continue despite economic uncertainties

[14:06] - Job creation/consumer spending indicate resilience in U.S. economy

[15:58] - Are we heading into a time of stagflation?

[18:09] - The Fed’s role & positive indicators for future growth

View Transcript

Links

'Washed up' Warren Buffett has supposedly lost a step. The investor has scored an $11 billion gain on Apple this year.

DeepSeek and tariffs fail to undermine the AI investment boom (so far)

Torsten Sløk: Stagflation coming

Commodity prices, the dollar and stagflation risk

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, we look back on an interesting/memorable month as the market experiences a wall of worry, reflecting optimism despite economic disruptions. We look at historical data showing that investing at market tops can still yield positive returns over time. We also advise on why maintaining cash reserves and fixed income is crucial for navigating market volatility, especially for retirees. We’ll then examine the rumors about the dollar, showing why it remains strong and is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status in the near term, and we look at international markets' performance, highlighting the importance of diversification in investment portfolios. Finally, we discuss the correlation between stocks and bonds and why investors should focus on long-term growth rather than short-term market fluctuations. 

Key Takeaways

[0:19] - Climbing the wall of worry

[06:12] - What if the market is wrong?

[09:43] - The Dollar's reserve status and global implications

[17:31] - Individual stocks & a historical perspective on stock and bond correlation

View Transcript

Links

Empty shelves are coming, Apollo economist says — and so is a 'voluntary' recession

What if you only invested at market tops?

The Dollar Endures: Strength, Stability, and Global Trust

Warren Buffett's net worth grows by $24B in 2025 while $5T vanishes from US markets

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We’re back from Spring Break, and…there’s a lot to catch up on! We dive right into the market volatility driven by tariff-related news and its implications for the economy. We’ll discuss the overwhelming need for certainty, the issues that come with a lack of trade with China, how paring back tariffs would be a business tailwind, and the Fed’s plan to get back to business as usual. We’ll also examine the decoupling of Bitcoin and gold from traditional asset classes and draw parallels to similar, past economic events.

Key Takeaways

View Transcript

Links

Connect with our hosts

Subscribe and stay in touch

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

There’s only one thing to talk about this week. We discuss the recent volatility surrounding tariffs and the implications for investors. We explore historical trends during periods of uncertainty, the opportunities that arise in fixed income investments, and the potential impact of economic uncertainty on consumer behavior. Weeks like this emphasize the importance of financial planning and present the opportunity to reassess investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

View Transcript

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• Detrick: Adding Liberation Day to a chart of Dow Jones + geopolitical events since 1900 doesn’t look so bad

Connect with our hosts

Subscribe and stay in touch

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.