This week on the podcast, we discussed Jackie’s recent visit to St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, to attend the Energy NL conference. Energy NL is the province’s energy supply and service sector association, which annually hosts the province’s flagship conference on conventional and clean energy. 

This week, Charlene Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Energy NL, joins the podcast to explore Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy potential and the discussions at the conference. Among the topics covered were potential nation-building projects, such as the Churchill River hydroelectric development—a joint $33 billion potential initiative by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec that aims to add nearly 4 GW of new electricity generation capacity on the river. Another significant project discussed was Equinor’s Bay du Nord offshore oil development, which could open a new offshore basin 500 km off the coast of Newfoundland. 

In addition to covering the conference highlights, Jackie and Peter recapped the past week’s events, including the constructive First Ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon on June 2nd. During this meeting, Prime Minister Carney outlined the criteria for nation-building projects. Furthermore, on June 6th, the Carney government tabled new legislation, “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act.” The goal is to pass the bill into law by Canada Day. 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Visit Peter Tertzakian's art show at the Elevation Gallery in Canmore, “Persistence, Obsolescence and Renewal: A Visual Inquiry Into the Lifecycle of Energy Infrastructure.” 
• Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) approach to extensive load connections (Data Centres), June 4 
• Avik Dey, President and CEO of Capital Power, LinkedIn post regarding AESO’s approach to data centre development, June 4 
• Prime Minister of Canada Office, “First Ministers’ statement on building a strong Canadian economy and advancing major projects,” June 2 
• “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act,” tabled June 5 
• “Insiders say Mark Carney could compromise on the emissions cap,” Toronto Star, June 6 

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North American electricity demand is growing fast, driven by the increasing presence of data centers, as well as other load growth. In Alberta alone, the AESO has reported about 12 GW of requests for load grid connections from data centers. 

This week, our guest is Josh Schertzer, Chief Executive Officer at Beacon AI Centers, which recently announced plans to develop up to 4.5 GW of AI data centers in Alberta, representing an investment of up to C$10 billion. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Josh: Should Albertans be concerned about this substantial load growth and the potential for associated higher electricity prices, given that 4.5 GW would account for nearly a 50% increase in current average provincial demand? Can data centers introduce flexibility by curtailing demand during periods of power shortages? Will Beacon AI Centers rely on grid electricity, or will they build their own generation sources? Do the clients of data centers, such as major IT companies, view natural gas as an acceptable energy source, considering its greenhouse gas emissions? How much cooling water is required, and could freshwater availability become a growth constraint? Lastly, what is the employment impact of the projects, including construction, operations, and spin-off jobs associated with establishing a data center hub? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Globe and Mail, “Carney to brief premiers on plan to fast-track major nation building projects” (May 29, 2025)  
• The Logic, “Calgary firm eyes $10B AI data centre building blitz” (May 15, 2025) 
• Duke Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, “Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the potential for integration of large flexible loads in US power systems” (February 2025)

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The past week saw a surge in energy-related political developments in Canada. Prime Minister Carney issued a unified Mandate Letter to his cabinet on May 21, 2025, emphasizing that Canada “must build an enormous amount of new infrastructure at speeds not seen in generations. This includes the infrastructure to diversify our trading relationships; to become an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energies.” 

The newly appointed Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson, delivered a constructive message during his visit to Calgary, highlighting the importance of building energy infrastructure, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, the Premiers from Western Canada convened a meeting in Yellowknife. They released a joint statement agreeing to plan and develop an economic corridor for “transporting oil and gas, liquefied natural gas, uranium, electricity, and hydroelectricity to Canadian and world markets.” 

To discuss these developments, we are joined by our guest, The Honourable Gordon Campbell, President of Hawksmuir International Partners Limited. He is the former Premier of British Columbia (2001–2011), Canadian High Commissioner to the UK and Northern Ireland (2011–2016), and Mayor of Vancouver (1986–1993). 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter posed to The Honourable Gordon Campbell: Based on the Carney government’s constructive comments on energy infrastructure and attracting private investment, including the Energy and Natural Resources Minister’s trip to Calgary last week, would you anticipate a new approach from the Liberals compared to the previous decade? The Western Premiers issued a joint statement to develop economic corridors, including those for transporting electricity, natural gas, and oil. What types of projects do you expect David Eby’s NDP government to support in British Columbia?  Would you expect the Federal government to revise or repeal energy policies, particularly those that might deter capital investment, such as the industrial carbon pricing policy set to increase to $170 per tonne by 2030 or the oil and gas emissions cap? 

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This week, our guest is Dr. Heather Exner-Pirot, a Senior Fellow and Director of Energy, Natural Resources and Environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, a Special Advisor to the Business Council of Canada, and a Research Advisor to the Indigenous Resource Network. Heather has twenty years of experience in Indigenous, Arctic and resource development and governance. She has published on Indigenous economic and resource development, energy security, and politics. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Heather: Does Canada have defense and security issues in the north? Politicians, including our Prime Minister, support Arctic export ports—do you expect to see new export corridors to the north? The Russians ship LNG from the Arctic, so why not Canada? What are your concerns about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s climate policy, as outlined in his Liberal leadership and election platforms? What are the issues with Canada’s greenwashing rules that were made law about one year ago? How would you recommend Canada move forward with speeding up the development of large projects—should the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69) be scrapped or just modified? What are the prospects for deploying small or micro nuclear reactors (SMRs) in the north? What does the future hold for Indigenous equity participation in major projects? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Northern Corridors: Hype or Hope? Macdonald-Laurier Institute, April 2025 
• Heather Exner-Pirot: Mark Carney’s climate plan is already outdated, The Hub, February 2025 
• Canada’s Greenwashing Amendment: A failure of process and policy, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, February 2025 
• From emergency to miracle – Germany’s LNG Acceleration Law shows that Western states can still build when they need to, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, January 2024 
• Learn more about Ontario Power Generation’s SMR project, including a video of the site preparation progress, Spring 2025

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After averaging around $US 75/B over the past few years, the WTI oil price fell below $US 60/B in early May. The weakness is driven by growing concerns about a potential recession resulting from US tariffs and announcements from the OPEC+ group that they will accelerate adding supply to the market, just as demand may be softening. 

To help us understand the recent volatility in oil prices, our guest this week is Jeremy Irwin, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jeremy: Is this a repeat of 2015, when OPEC decided to flood the market to weaken US shale oil producers? Is President Trump influencing the OPEC+ strategy, as he may want lower oil prices to help offset the inflationary effects of US tariffs? At current price levels, how will US oil production respond? If profit is tight at lower prices, will US oil producers prioritize paying shareholders or capital spending? How might changes to US sanctions on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran impact the oil market? When do you expect global (and China’s) oil demand to peak? In the short term, how serious is the threat of recession to oil demand? Do you expect Canadian oil export infrastructure to expand? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• See the Energy Aspects website to learn more about their research data, tools, and consulting services

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Canadians voted for Mark Carney and the Liberal government on April 28th, 2025. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney asserted, "It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy." 

This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. 

Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”

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This week, our guest is John Kousinioris, President and CEO of TransAlta, one of Canada's largest power generators. TransAlta owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the US, and Western Australia, producing electricity from renewable sources and thermal generation. 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada? 

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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss the latest news on the Canadian federal election, including takeaways from the leaders' debate on April 17th and the platform released by the Liberal Party on April 19th. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had not yet released a full platform document at the time of recording.

Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy.  Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining.  Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion. 

 Content referenced in this podcast:

• Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)
• Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)
• BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition 
• White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)
• Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025) 
• Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)

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To begin this week’s podcast, Peter and Jackie recap the past week's events, including President Trump's tariff U-turn and the escalating US-China tariff war.

Next, the conversation turns to Canada, the upcoming federal election, and Arctic export ports. To help us understand the opportunities and challenges with Arctic ports, Chris Avery, CEO of the Arctic Gateway Group joins the show. The Arctic Gateway Group is an Indigenous and community-owned transportation company that operates the Port of Churchill—Canada’s only Arctic seaport serviced by rail—and the Hudson Bay Railway, connecting The Pas to Churchill, Manitoba.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Chris: What is the condition of the rail line to the port now? What types of goods are currently exported from the port, and what types are expected to be exported in the future? Is it a deep-water port? How much of the year is Hudson Bay covered by ice, preventing exports? Is it feasible to break the ice? They also discussed whether the port could be suitable for LNG exports. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney, Liberal platform, economic pillars for change with a plan for Arctic ports (note, the Conservative party of Canada also has an Arctic control and sovereignty plan, but it does not explicitly identify energy export ports). 
• Energy News “Arctic Pipelines to Capture European Market” (March 26, 2025), reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s initiative aimed at expanding the country’s oil infrastructure toward the Arctic
• LNG Industry, “Ice-breaking LNG carrier for Yamal LNG project named Vladimir Rusanov” (January 2018)
• Ship Technology “Mikhail Ulyanov Ice-Class Tanker” (December 2008)
• The BC Government announces more flexibility for the LNG net-zero 2030 policy, see March 28, 2025 letter to project proponent and updated Climate Action Secretariat’s Net Zero Plan Requirements 

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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the significant volatility in the financial markets due to the escalating global trade war unleashed by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. Economists and banks are sounding the alarm about the increased risk of a global recession. At the same time, oil prices have fallen by about $US 10/B due to fears of a recession and news that OPEC+ is adding more supply than expected into the market. In Canada, the uncertainty is further compounded by the upcoming federal election scheduled for April 28th, 2025.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Financial Times, “In charts: winners and losers from Trump’s new tariffs” (April 4, 2025)
• BNN Bloomberg, Trump’s tariffs to send U.S. into recession: JP Morgan (April 6, 2025)
• Polymarket, “ US recession in 2025?”
• Reuters, “OPEC+ unexpectedly speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops” (April 3, 2025)
• 338Canada, Canadian Federal Election Polling

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