ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week, our guest is the Honourable Christy Clark, the 35th Premier of British Columbia and Canada’s longest-serving female Premier. Christy Clark is currently a Senior Advisor for Bennett Jones LLP.

Politics is top of mind for energy decision-makers with the upcoming US election, Canadian federal by-elections, the possibility of an early federal election in Canada, and a provincial election next month in Christy Clark’s home province of British Columbia.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christy Clark:

Are you surprised that the NDP has been slipping in the polls in BC? Explain the BC United Party (former BC Liberal Party) recently folding into the Conservative Party of BC. Is there potential for the provincial Conservative Party to win in BC next month? Is climate change still an important issue for BC voters? You worked to get BC’s LNG industry started, with over 15 potential projects expected at one point; what is your view on the industry now? Is more electrical generation capacity needed to meet future demand, besides the Site C hydro dam? Now that it has started, how do people feel about the Trans Mountain expansion oil pipeline? With the federal NDP ripping up their agreement to cooperate with the Liberals, do you expect the federal election will occur sooner than October 2025? What are the chances that Justin Trudeau will withdraw from the federal Liberal leadership before the election? Do you have any federal political aspirations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Current polling of BC provincial election at 388canada.com 

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This week, our guest is Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy. Founded in 2019, the research firm aims to help decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition. Rob lives nine time zones away in Estonia and is an uber-productive energy expert who covers a wide range of topics in his consultancy. 

Rob explains why he hates S-curves, since they are often used to assume future growth rates for new energy technologies instead of properly analyzing what is realistic.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rob: What do you think of the recent sell-off of clean energy stocks and the reasons behind some company failures? How much do you think the electricity demand will grow due to AI? Will there be investment in new natural gas-fired generation to meet this demand growth, despite the concerns about carbon emissions?  Why do you think solar is the most important energy source in the world? Why do you see power grids as the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition? Do you think naturally found hydrogen in the earth’s subsurface, also called “gold hydrogen,” could be the next “gold rush”? 

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• Thunder Said Energy website, see past research notes and sign up for daily email: https://thundersaidenergy.com/ 
• FT article “More cleantech companies fail as fundraising challenges emerge (ft.com),” September 2, 2024 

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So long summer!  Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months. 

They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. 

Content referenced on this podcast:  

• McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) 
• Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  
• BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. 
• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) 

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This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture. 

Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro. 

Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCO’s recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024) 

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This week, on our Calgary Stampede podcast edition, our guest is Avik Dey, President and Chief Executive Officer of Capital Power. Capital Power is a publicly traded North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta. Capital Power owns renewable and thermal power generation facilities, totaling over 9 GW of power generation capacity across 32 facilities.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Avik: Is it possible to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable electricity? Does Capital Power currently generate any electricity from coal? Do you expect small modular reactors (SMRs) to be built in Alberta in the future? Texas generates a greater share of its electricity from renewables than Alberta, yet Alberta is hitting the brakes on renewable development – how is Texas managing the increase in renewables, and what can Alberta learn? Are you concerned by the potential for rapid growth in electricity demand to fuel AI data centers in Alberta? Why did Capital Power recently cancel its proposed $2.4 billion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genesee project in Alberta? Considering the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, would you still invest in new natural gas generation in Canada? Any comments on Quebec’s plan to build and operate large-scale renewable projects in the province versus procuring the power from independent power producers?  

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On June 20, 2024, Bill C-59 received Royal Assent and officially became law, implementing its provisions into Canadian legislation. The Bill, along with Bill C-69, which was passed on the same day, introduced new subsidies to encourage investment in clean energy in Canada. Bill C-59 established the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Tax Credit. Bill C-69 created the Federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee, the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, and the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit. 

However, the positive impact of these new subsidies was overshadowed by the greenwashing regulations added late in the process for Bill C-59. The new greenwashing rules amend the Competition Act to require that claims made by companies about environmental, ecological, or climate change benefits can be verified. Because of the ambiguity of what is needed to comply with the rules, many energy companies have deleted all GHG emissions and other sustainability content from their websites, including annual sustainability reports and commitments to improve environmental performance in the future. 

This week on the podcast, our guest, Kaeleigh Kuzma, a Partner at Osler in the Competition, Trade, and Foreign Investment Group, explained the new greenwashing rules. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Kaeleigh: Why is greenwashing included in the Competition Act? Can you explain the provisions? What does “proper substantiation in accordance with internationally recognized methodology” mean? Why are the rules so vague, and what is the process for clarity? Do these rules only affect oil and gas and other heavy-emitting companies, or do they also apply to clean energy companies? What is the process for filing a complaint against a company to the Competition Bureau? What are the methods of enforcement? 

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

•  Osler’s detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. 
• Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) 
• Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act 
• Kevin  Krausert opinion “Ottawa’s anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovation” (June 20, 2024)

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Stephen Poloz, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Author, Special Advisor at Osler, and recently appointed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to lead a working group to explore how to catalyze greater domestic investments by Canada’s pension funds.  

This is Stephen's second appearance on the podcast. The first was in 2022 after he released his book The Next Age of Uncertainty.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Stephen: What precipitated the thesis that Canadian pensioners are better off with more investment in Canada? What can you say about the pension investment working group, the deliverable you are working towards, and the potential timing? Why has inflation been so persistent in Canada and globally? What are your expectations for Canadian interest rate announcements in the future? Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, recently said in a speech, it's time to “break the glass” and respond to Canada's productivity “emergency” – do you agree that productivity is an emergency? How important is free trade with the United States for Canada’s economy? What are your thoughts on the Canadian government committing tens of billions of dollars to support the EV sector in Canada? Are you concerned about Canada’s ongoing deficit budgets and growing debt levels?  

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This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).  

The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Remarkable digital notepad 
• Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado  
• Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba 

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According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.  

In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.

In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion. 

Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• CAPP Data Centre 
• US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) 
• Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC) 

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This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States.
 
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls?  Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province?  Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?  

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry  
• Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website 
• Supreme Court of Canada Judgment:  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec 

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