This week, our guest is Michael Berends, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of ClearBlue Markets.  

ClearBlue Markets helps clients harness carbon markets to meet their climate objectives.  

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Michael: What is the overall sentiment toward carbon markets, especially after the Trump Administration's retreat from ESG initiatives? Are recent recommendations for new quality standards improving trust in voluntary carbon credits? Will COP29's global carbon market mechanism endorsement encourage more international trading? Why are Alberta TIER carbon market offsets discounted by 50%, and why do California LCFS and BC credit markets also have low prices? What are your expectations for Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credit prices, and could the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) repeal the regulation if elected? Why does Canada have 11 carbon markets? Can industrial emitters trade carbon offsets in Ontario? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• ICE has two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits

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The threat of tariffs on Canada’s trade with the United States continues to be top of mind, with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, recently returning from Mar-a-Lago after meeting with President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend.

This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Polymarket: “Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada?” 

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Peter and Jackie start the new year by reviewing their predictions from 2024: what did they get right, and what did they miss?

Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.

Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft). 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Donald Trump’s January 2, 2025, X post on how tariffs create wealth for Americans 
• Final Clean Electricity Regulations (December 13, 2024)
• Jordan B. Peterson Podcast interview with Pierre Poilievre (released January 2, 2025)
• The deadline to provide a “Notice of Objection” on the oil and gas cap is January 8, 2025. Email the objection to [email protected]. See more information under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations 

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This is our last podcast of 2024! We will be back in the new year with a look back at 2024 and the energy themes we will be watching in 2025.

For the last podcast of the year, we welcome Elliot Mainzer, President & Chief Executive Officer, California Independent System Operator (CAISO).

California has integrated a large share of renewables into its electricity supply. As of 2023, almost 50% of California’s power generation came from renewables. Renewable power generation includes solar (19%), hydro (15%), wind (6%), geothermal (5%), and biomass (2%). 

Jackie and Peter asked Elliot: What is your expectation for future renewables growth? What is the future of natural gas generation?  Is transmission able to keep up with the addition of new power supply? Do you expect changes under the Trump administration could speed up the permitting for new transmission projects?  Are you concerned about the pace of demand growth and what is driving the acceleration?   Is it fair to say that high renewables penetration has caused California to have expensive power prices?  Alberta is making market changes to address the growth of renewables; how did California address these issues with market design in a way that continued to create a compelling investment opportunity for renewables?  How much electricity does California currently receive from Alberta and British Columbia?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Statement from CanREA on concerns about punitive market and transmission changes in Alberta, including a link to a Direction Letter from Minister Nathan Neudorf (December 10, 2024)
• Opinion: Alberta needs solar and wind to meet demand by Vittoria Bellissimo and Evan Wilson, December 12, 2024
• 2023 Total System Electric Generation for California (California Energy Commission) 

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This week, our guest is Arne Wohlschlegel, Managing Director at Siemens Energy Canada. Siemens Energy Canada provides a range of energy technologies, including natural gas turbines, grid equipment and digital solutions, wind turbines, and hydrogen electrolyzers.

Peter and Jackie asked Arne about the power equipment business, including how the potential new tariffs could impact the business and new manufacturing investments. They also discuss technologies for generating electricity from natural gas and efficiency rates. Other questions include: To decarbonize natural gas power generation, is it better to blend clean hydrogen into the feedstock or capture the carbon dioxide from the exhaust? What is the backlog for ordering new natural gas power plants and the waiting time for other key electrical components, such as large transformers? What digital technologies can increase the use of existing grid infrastructure? What are your expectations for offshore and onshore wind generation projects in Canada? Hydrogen development in Canada has been slower than initially expected back in 2022; why the delays, and what are your future expectations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Siemens Energy Canada 
• PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series, Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum will be in Calgary on February 6, 2025. Early Bird tickets are on sale until January 10. 
• The Ezra Klien Show, podcast with Anne Applebaum “Trump Kicks Down the Guardrails”
• ‘Hype’ meets reality as Canada’s plans to export hydrogen to Germany stall (October 6, 2024) 

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Peter and Jackie start the podcast by discussing President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and the potential impact on Canadian oil and gas markets and prices.

Next, Peter and Jackie welcome their guest, Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). CanREA is a national industry association and the voice for Canada's wind, solar, and energy storage solutions.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Vittoria: How would you describe the mood of renewable developers in Canada today? Tariffs on solar equipment could be added at the Canadian border; how will this impact the cost of developing solar and wind projects? Why has Canada recently imported more electricity from the United States? Does this mean Canada is already facing tighter electricity markets? Alberta is redesigning its electricity market, called the REM or Restructured Energy Market. Why is this change needed? What concerns do renewable generators have regarding the proposed changes for the Alberta market? Are you concerned about the potential electricity demand growth from AI data centres in Alberta and elsewhere?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• CanREA’s Clean Energy Procurement Calendar
• Dunsky report commissioned by CanREA, that defines the potential for onsite or behind-the-meter solar in Canada
• EIA note on how US exports of electricity to Canada have increased
• CanREA’s Go Solar Guide 2024, the go-to source for Canadians looking to install solar on their rooftops and homes 

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This week, the podcast begins with Jackie and Peter reviewing recent news, including key takeaways from COP29, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and discussions about potentially restarting the Keystone XL oil pipeline project. They also reviewed President Trump's nominations for the Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the US Department of the Interior and plans to launch a National Energy Council to coordinate policies and boost US energy production. 

Next, Peter and Jackie welcome their guest, Bob Dhillon, the Founder, President, and CEO of Mainstreet Equity Corp., which is a Calgary-based real estate company specializing in acquiring, redeveloping, and managing mid-market residential rental apartment buildings across Western Canada.

Buildings, including apartment buildings, are a significant source of emissions. According to the Canada Green Building Council (CAGBC), “residential, commercial, and institutional buildings contribute 17% of Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Considering building materials and construction brings that number closer to 30%, making the building sector Canada’s third-highest carbon emitter.”

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Bob: What is your perspective on the Canadian housing crisis? What are some solutions for solving the housing shortage? Who pays for energy in Mainstreet’s apartment buildings? What projects have you undertaken to reduce energy use in the buildings? Who pays for the escalating carbon tax? How would a net zero building code impact the housing shortage?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Liberty Energy’s Report “Bettering Human Lives”
• Mainstreet Equity Corp. website: https://www.mainst.biz/

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On November 9th, 2024, the Canadian Government published a proposed policy to cap oil and gas sector emissions, known as Canada Gazette Part 1. While the final targets will not be set until 2026, the Government estimates that this policy, in conjunction with other policies, will reduce GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector by 35% in the early 2030s compared to 2019. When flexible compliance options are considered, actual emissions are targeted to decline by 19% from 2019 levels.

This week, Sander Duncanson, Partner at Osler and Co-Chair of Osler's national Regulatory, Indigenous, and Environmental practice, joins the podcast. Osler is a leader in Canadian business law.

Peter, Jackie and Sander discuss their concerns with the proposed policy. Topics covered include:

• The low likelihood of the regulation becoming final law.
• The potential for the policy to create winners and losers, market distortions, and other unintended consequences.
• The complexity of Canada’s regulatory framework which reduces investment.
• Concerns that Canada and the United States are moving in opposite directions regarding carbon policy. Canada is increasing stringency, while the US is expected to reduce its carbon policy, thereby creating the threat of investment moving from Canada to the US (carbon leakage).
• The options to provide feedback on the proposed policy are available until January 8th, 2025.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations (November 9th, 2024)
  • Consultation feedback can be provided within a series of online forms in the Gazette, Part 1 link above, by January 8th, 2025. Another option for feedback is to submit a “Notice of Objection” by the same date. More information on this option can be found under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in the Gazette.
• Peter Tertzakian’s commentary in The Hub “DeepDive: It’s time for a carbon policy time-out” (November 2nd, 2024)
• Osler’s Blog “Federal government announces constitutionally questionable oil and gas sector emissions cap” (November 8th, 2024)

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On November 5th, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States. The Republicans gained a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. There were also recent provincial elections in Canada, including British Columbia, where the incumbent NDP party nearly lost power to the Conservatives. Federally, in Canada, there is potential for a spring election.

This week, Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, joins the podcast to talk about the recent elections and polling.

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Shachi: What does the election of Donald Trump tell you about the state of democracies? How important of an issue is immigration? To what extent do Canadians support Trump's policies and approach? What is the likelihood of US import tariffs of 10-20% being applied to Canada? What are the likely energy policies from the Trump administration? What are the priorities in British Columbia post-election, and do you expect any change with respect to natural resource development and LNG? How could the election of President Trump impact the next Canadian election?  Do you expect any leadership changes for the Liberals?  How does climate change rate as a priority for Canadian voters?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Angus Reid Institute
• Shachi Kurl, Ottawa Citizen Article, “Don’t expect a unified ‘Team Canada’ approach to Donald Trump this time” (Nov 8, 2024) 
• Awaiting the next President: Canadians prefer Trudeau to deal with Harris, Poilievre to work with Trump (Nov 4, 2024)

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This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie discuss what they are watching for from the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, better known as COP29. The conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11th to 22nd, 2024. 

Next, they delve into the IEA’s recently released World Energy Outlook 2024. This annual report is widely read and used for discussions on the future of energy. They review some key points that caught their attention, including an outlook for abundant energy supply in the latter part of the 2020s, peak fossil fuels by 2030, electricity’s growing role, and the adoption of EVs.

They also consider a few new EV labels: extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs).

They also introduce Peter’s recent article on the proposed cap on Canada’s oil and gas emissions.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• UN Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please! (October 2024)
• UN “It’s Climate Crunch Time” video about three future scenarios, including game over (October 2024)
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2024
• Peter Tertzakian’ s commentary “It’s time for a carbon policy time-out (November 2024)

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