This week, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada's energy security weaknesses for crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and electricity.

First, they cover recent news, including the latest on US tariffs, the Canadian Prime Minister’s Canada-US Economic Summit held on February 7th, Mark Carney’s Climate Plan, interprovincial trade barriers, and the need to attract private capital to invest in expanding Canada’s energy infrastructure, such as ports, pipelines, rail, and transmission lines.

Next, Peter and Jackie consider Ontario and Quebec's heavy reliance on crude oil and natural gas transiting through the United States. They also discuss Canada’s imports of refined petroleum products and cross-border electricity trade. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney Climate Plan 
• CAPP Data Centre “Canadian Imports of US Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Refined Products”
• Peter Tertzakian’s story “The Long Way Around” also on Apple Podcasts 
• Financial Post, July 2020: “Cenovus first to announce it’s shipping Western oil to Eastern refineries through the Panama Canal.”
• EIA blog that Canada and US trade in electricity is close to balanced (November 2024)

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This week, our guest is Anne Applebaum, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, historian, and New York Times bestselling author. Her latest book, Autocracy Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World, explores the global rise of authoritarianism.

On February 6th, 2025, Anne spoke at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business annual PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series. This episode was recorded live at the event.

Jackie Forrest moderated the discussion with Anne Applebaum, which covered a wide range of topics, including the timing of her new book, the Trump administration’s early actions and executive orders, and the recent deterioration of Canadian-US relations.

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On February 1st, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border.” The order calls for a 25% tariff on virtually all Canadian goods imported into the United States and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, starting February 4th. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau imposed 25% tariffs on C$155 billion worth of American goods coming into Canada, with C$30 billion starting February 4th and the remaining 21 days later.

On February 3rd, after this podcast was recorded, President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau agreed to pause the tariffs for at least 30 days.

To help us understand the escalating trade war, we welcome the Honourable John Manley to the podcast. For over a decade, John served in the Federal Government as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Industry. He is currently the Chairman of Jefferies Securities Inc., a member of the Board of Directors of TELUS, and a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked the Honourable John Manley: What are your thoughts on the abrupt turn in US - Canada relations? What else should Canada be doing at this point? What are Canada’s energy vulnerabilities in this dispute? Does Canada have emergency measures it can use? Should Canada boost spending to support businesses and people, and does the prorogation of parliament limit these options?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• John Manley’s Op-ed in the Globe and Mail, “Dear Donald Trump: Your plan to create ‘the United States of Canada’ is brilliant” (January 15, 2025)
• The Main Project 25 Document Published in April 2023

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This week on the podcast, we discuss Donald Trump’s inauguration and his return to the Oval Office, including his memorandums and executive orders. Joining the conversation is Christopher Sands, Director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, a specialist on Canada, US-Canadian relations, and North American economic integration.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christopher: What is your reaction to President Trump's speech to the business leaders at Davos, specifically his remarks about not needing Canadian lumber, automobiles, or oil and gas? President Trump’s inauguration speech mentioned expanding territory; does that mean going to war? The executive order "American First Trade Policy" outlined a process to make trade recommendations by April 1st. However, President Trump also mentioned February 1st as the day tariffs could be imposed on Canada and Mexico. Which date do you expect? How important is it for Canada to increase its military spending? Some of President Trump’s executive orders, such as “Unleashing American Energy” and “Declaring a National Energy Emergency,” grant the federal government significant powers—akin to wartime measures—to expedite energy infrastructure development. Do you expect these powers will be challenged in the courts? President Trump has stated that he will end the Green New Deal, and one executive order froze the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds. What is your expectation regarding support for clean energy? Canada currently has a void of federal leadership, and Premiers are filling the gap and going to Washington, D.C.; how is that being viewed in the US?  What are your views on the top contenders for the next Prime Minister of Canada and their ability to negotiate successfully with President Trump and the new Administration?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• The Canusa Street Podcast
• Canada and the United States: Differences That Count, Fifth edition, David Thomas and Christopher Sands 

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This week, our guest is Michael Berends, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of ClearBlue Markets.  

ClearBlue Markets helps clients harness carbon markets to meet their climate objectives.  

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Michael: What is the overall sentiment toward carbon markets, especially after the Trump Administration's retreat from ESG initiatives? Are recent recommendations for new quality standards improving trust in voluntary carbon credits? Will COP29's global carbon market mechanism endorsement encourage more international trading? Why are Alberta TIER carbon market offsets discounted by 50%, and why do California LCFS and BC credit markets also have low prices? What are your expectations for Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credit prices, and could the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) repeal the regulation if elected? Why does Canada have 11 carbon markets? Can industrial emitters trade carbon offsets in Ontario? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• ICE has two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits

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The threat of tariffs on Canada’s trade with the United States continues to be top of mind, with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, recently returning from Mar-a-Lago after meeting with President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend.

This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Polymarket: “Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada?” 

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Peter and Jackie start the new year by reviewing their predictions from 2024: what did they get right, and what did they miss?

Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.

Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft). 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Donald Trump’s January 2, 2025, X post on how tariffs create wealth for Americans 
• Final Clean Electricity Regulations (December 13, 2024)
• Jordan B. Peterson Podcast interview with Pierre Poilievre (released January 2, 2025)
• The deadline to provide a “Notice of Objection” on the oil and gas cap is January 8, 2025. Email the objection to [email protected]. See more information under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations 

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This is our last podcast of 2024! We will be back in the new year with a look back at 2024 and the energy themes we will be watching in 2025.

For the last podcast of the year, we welcome Elliot Mainzer, President & Chief Executive Officer, California Independent System Operator (CAISO).

California has integrated a large share of renewables into its electricity supply. As of 2023, almost 50% of California’s power generation came from renewables. Renewable power generation includes solar (19%), hydro (15%), wind (6%), geothermal (5%), and biomass (2%). 

Jackie and Peter asked Elliot: What is your expectation for future renewables growth? What is the future of natural gas generation?  Is transmission able to keep up with the addition of new power supply? Do you expect changes under the Trump administration could speed up the permitting for new transmission projects?  Are you concerned about the pace of demand growth and what is driving the acceleration?   Is it fair to say that high renewables penetration has caused California to have expensive power prices?  Alberta is making market changes to address the growth of renewables; how did California address these issues with market design in a way that continued to create a compelling investment opportunity for renewables?  How much electricity does California currently receive from Alberta and British Columbia?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Statement from CanREA on concerns about punitive market and transmission changes in Alberta, including a link to a Direction Letter from Minister Nathan Neudorf (December 10, 2024)
• Opinion: Alberta needs solar and wind to meet demand by Vittoria Bellissimo and Evan Wilson, December 12, 2024
• 2023 Total System Electric Generation for California (California Energy Commission) 

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This week, our guest is Arne Wohlschlegel, Managing Director at Siemens Energy Canada. Siemens Energy Canada provides a range of energy technologies, including natural gas turbines, grid equipment and digital solutions, wind turbines, and hydrogen electrolyzers.

Peter and Jackie asked Arne about the power equipment business, including how the potential new tariffs could impact the business and new manufacturing investments. They also discuss technologies for generating electricity from natural gas and efficiency rates. Other questions include: To decarbonize natural gas power generation, is it better to blend clean hydrogen into the feedstock or capture the carbon dioxide from the exhaust? What is the backlog for ordering new natural gas power plants and the waiting time for other key electrical components, such as large transformers? What digital technologies can increase the use of existing grid infrastructure? What are your expectations for offshore and onshore wind generation projects in Canada? Hydrogen development in Canada has been slower than initially expected back in 2022; why the delays, and what are your future expectations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Siemens Energy Canada 
• PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series, Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum will be in Calgary on February 6, 2025. Early Bird tickets are on sale until January 10. 
• The Ezra Klien Show, podcast with Anne Applebaum “Trump Kicks Down the Guardrails”
• ‘Hype’ meets reality as Canada’s plans to export hydrogen to Germany stall (October 6, 2024) 

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Peter and Jackie start the podcast by discussing President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and the potential impact on Canadian oil and gas markets and prices.

Next, Peter and Jackie welcome their guest, Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). CanREA is a national industry association and the voice for Canada's wind, solar, and energy storage solutions.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Vittoria: How would you describe the mood of renewable developers in Canada today? Tariffs on solar equipment could be added at the Canadian border; how will this impact the cost of developing solar and wind projects? Why has Canada recently imported more electricity from the United States? Does this mean Canada is already facing tighter electricity markets? Alberta is redesigning its electricity market, called the REM or Restructured Energy Market. Why is this change needed? What concerns do renewable generators have regarding the proposed changes for the Alberta market? Are you concerned about the potential electricity demand growth from AI data centres in Alberta and elsewhere?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• CanREA’s Clean Energy Procurement Calendar
• Dunsky report commissioned by CanREA, that defines the potential for onsite or behind-the-meter solar in Canada
• EIA note on how US exports of electricity to Canada have increased
• CanREA’s Go Solar Guide 2024, the go-to source for Canadians looking to install solar on their rooftops and homes 

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