The Loonie Hour

Bond markets are deteriorating rapidly as yields rise and credit spreads begin to widen across the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan. We discuss what tightening financial conditions could mean for housing, equities, the broader economy, as well as the possibility that a short-term recovery in bonds could ultimately prove to be a bear trap. Meanwhile, B.C.’s condo market continues to struggle with thousands of completed and unsold units as developers face mounting pressure. We also discuss Canada’s debt maturity schedule, Saskatchewan's push toward nuclear power, taxes and talent retention, and the renewed debate over immigration and temporary foreign workers.

Join Us for The Loonie Hour Investor Series — Live in Ottawa with Ben Rabidoux on October 13th, and Live in Montreal on October 15th!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

04:28 Loonie Hour Investor Series

07:26 B.C. Election & David Eby’s Condo Tax

10:40 Taxing Unsold New Condos

12:31 B.C.’s Growing Condo Inventory

14:39 Developers Cutting Prices & Raising Commissions

16:19 Why Developers Can’t Simply Slash Prices

18:02 Bond Stress Meets the Housing Market

19:49 Loonie Hour Investor Series

21:39 The Global Bond Selloff

23:08 High-Yield Credit Spreads Are Moving

26:12 Is a Bond Market Recovery a Bear Trap?

27:52 Tightening Financial Conditions

30:42 Bond Market Warning Signals

33:55 U.S. Economy Complicates the Rate Outlook

36:59 Canada’s Coming Debt Maturity Wall

38:29 Canada Reshapes Its Debt Profile

40:17 Why U.S. and Canadian Bond Yields Differ

45:22 Canada Still Doesn’t Have a Budget

46:58 Saskatchewan Pushes Nuclear Power

50:04 Canada’s Changing Energy Policy

51:25 High Taxes & Canadian NHL Teams

53:45 Canada’s Talent Retention Problem

54:25 Property Tax Freeze for Seniors

56:00 Generational Inequality in Canada

56:22 Canada’s Immigration Debate Returns

01:01:18 Ottawa & Montreal Events

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #bondmarket

Today, we'll break down the renewed surge in global bond yields and what it could mean for interest rates, mortgages, housing, and the broader economy. Long-term yields are climbing across central banks globally, putting renewered pressure on borrowing costs just as households and businesses faces further challenges. We also discuss Canada's slowing population growth and rental market, mounting stress in US housing and multifamily real estate, weakness beneath the surface of the US consumer, and why companies like McDonald's are warning that sticky, elevated food inflation and flat customer traffic are the "new normal".

Join Us for The Loonie Hour Investor Series — Live in Ottawa with Ben Rabidoux on October 13th, and Live in Montreal on October 15th!

Get Your Tickets Here:

Ottawa - https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-loonie-hour-investor-series-with-ben-rabidoux-october-13th-tickets-2000313438341

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Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

07:09 BC Election & Canadian Politics

18:18 Canada’s Population Growth Slows

24:44 Canada’s Rental Market & Long-Term Interest Rates

25:05 Global Bond Yields Surge

29:34 Bond Market & Mortgage Rates

35:09 Canadian Mortgage Rates Move Higher

36:23 US Housing Market Problems

37:17 US Multifamily Debt Crisis

40:20 Loonie Hour Investor Series

43:31 Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

49:11 Mortgage Renewals & Higher Rates

51:05 Energy Prices Are Getting Worse

53:59 US Diesel Export Ban

58:06 Stock Market Warning Signs

01:01:00 McDonald’s, Inflation & Consumer Weakness

01:03:14 US Consumer Confidence Plunges

01:06:03 The Big Mac Index & Inflation

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #inflation

Central banks are turning increasingly hawkish as an escalating global energy crisis keeps inflation under pressure. We'll break down why policymakers are committing to higher interest rates even as the underlying inflation problem is increasingly driven by energy supply. They discuss the latest moves from the Fed and European central banks, rising global bond yields, surging oil and fuel costs, and what it could mean for Canadian mortgage rates. Meanwhile, Canada’s housing market remains frozen, with national home sales falling to their lowest year-to-date level since 2003.

Join Us For The Loonie Hour Investor Series - With Ben Rabidoux, Live In Ottawa on October 13th!

Get Your Tickets Here:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-loonie-hour-investor-series-with-ben-rabidoux-october-13th-tickets-2000313438341

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For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokers

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Check Out True North Mortgage's 40-Year Amortization Plan:

Visit https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/ today!

Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: [email protected]

Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📫 The Loonie Hour Substack:

https://looniehour.substack.com/about

📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

06:52 Canada Housing Hits a 23-Year Low

09:34 Housing Inventory & Cancelled Listings

11:11 Housing Starts Keep Falling

13:18 What Happened to the 500,000 Homes?

14:03 Should Canada Keep the Foreign Buyer Ban?

18:38 Canada’s Massive Investment Push

20:16 Canada Cuts Investment Taxes

22:55 Breaking Down the $500B Investment Commitment

24:53 Where Are the Foreign Investors?

27:13 Canada’s Biggest New Investment Projects

30:27 Did Trump Force Canada to Change Course?

34:24 Canada Embraces Energy Again

38:04 Why Investment Will Take Years to Materialize

42:26 Central Banks Turn Hawkish

46:22 Could the Bank of Canada Raise Rates?

48:02 Higher Rates Won’t Fix Energy Inflation

51:00 Global Bond Markets Under Pressure

56:12 The Global Energy Crisis Deepens

58:43 The World Is Running Out of Energy Capacity

01:01:07 Oil Tanker Costs Explode

01:02:19 Canadian Mortgage Rates Under Pressure

01:05:06 Mortgage Arrears Hit a Decade High

01:06:18 Canada & the European Union

01:09:49 Canada Already Has an EU Trade Deal

01:11:03 Europe’s Sovereign Debt Risks

01:12:28 Would Canadians Actually Move to Europe?

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #centralbank

Ben Rabidoux joins the show to break down the latest housing data, rising mortgage rates, record mortgage renewals, the ongoing shifting in economic alliances, and why delinquencies could continue climbing through 2027 and beyond. We also discuss the escalating Canada–U.S. trade dispute, inflation risks, rising global bond yields, weakness across several provincial housing markets, and how Canada’s booming energy sector might be helping keep government finances and mortgage rates under control.

Join Us For The Loonie Hour Investor Series - With Ben Rabidoux, Live In Ottawa on October 13th!

Get Your Tickets Here:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-loonie-hour-investor-series-with-ben-rabidoux-october-13th-tickets-2000313438341

Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings!

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Check Out True North Mortgage's 40-Year Amortization Plan:

Visit https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/ today!

Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: [email protected]

Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

https://stevesaretsky.substack.com

📫 The Loonie Hour Substack:

https://looniehour.substack.com/about

📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

08:12 Is Canada’s Housing Market Bottoming?

11:27 Mortgage Rates Are Moving Higher

16:05 When Will Bonds Become Attractive Again?

18:19 Bank of Canada Rate Hikes Are Coming

20:04 Inflation Expectations Matter

23:35 Europe Is Raising Rates Again

25:22 The Next Wave of Inflation

30:02 Canada’s Regional Housing Markets

31:40 Canada’s Rental Market Will Stay Weak

32:54 Canada-U.S. Trade War Escalates

35:01 Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record Highs

37:16 The Mortgage Renewal Wave Is Here

40:16 Canada’s Economy Faces More Pressure

41:44 The Risk To Canadian Banks

44:58 Canada’s Money Laundering Problem

49:40 How Iranian Capital Can Enter Canada

53:09 Good News For Canada

53:31 Foreign Investors Are Buying Canadian Bonds

54:28 Oil & Gas Is Helping Balance Canada’s Budget

56:08 Is Canada Becoming More Pro-Energy?

58:35 Canada’s Politically Charged Environment

01:02:38 Bank of Canada Rate Predictions

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #bondmarket

Global bond markets are flashing warning signs as long-term yields surge across Japan, the UK, France, and other major economies, raising new concerns about government debt, inflation, and financial stability. Meanwhile, Canada’s housing market remains under pressure, Vancouver records its slowest August sales since 2012, and rising energy prices could complicate the outlook for inflation and interest rates within the country.

Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings!

For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokers

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Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: [email protected]

Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📫 The Loonie Hour Substack:

https://looniehour.substack.com/about

📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

05:14 Vancouver Housing Sales Hit 2012 Lows

09:48 Builders Get Aggressive on Prices

14:56 Rent Controls & Canada’s Housing Supply

22:46 Why Rent Controls Don’t Work

27:50 Bank of Canada & Interest Rates

30:36 Central Banks Talk Tough on Inflation

38:01 Global Bond Yields Are Surging

41:39 Is a Sovereign Debt Crisis Coming?

43:15 The Ultimate Bond Market Bear Trap

45:38 Canada’s GDP Gets Revised Higher

47:55 Could the Bank of Canada Raise Rates?

51:15 The Overlooked Energy Trade

52:55 Russia-Ukraine Energy Infrastructure Attacks

56:32 Global Oil & Natural Gas Supply Tightens

59:38 The Bull Case for Commodities

01:01:50 Energy Prices Are Spiking

01:04:36 The Opportunity in Higher Oil Prices

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #bondmarket

We are joined by chief economist Peter Berezin at BCA Research to discuss the intensifying trade wars, the AI Boom, and the sovereign debt bubble.

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Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

04:29 Canada-US Trade Deal Falls Apart

05:59 Carney Moves Closer to Europe

08:20 What Happens Without a Trade Deal?

11:13 Is This Really About Canada or China?

12:21 Peter Berezin Joins the Show

13:33 Economic Impact of the Canada-U.S. Trade War

15:20 Could Canada Actually Win?

17:09 Risk of Canada Losing Manufacturing

17:49 Could More Stimulus Be Coming?

19:36 Canada's Productivity Problem

22:22 How Canada Can Turn Things Around

24:05 How Transformational Will AI Really Be?

26:26 The Massive AI Spending Boom

27:37 AI's $10 Trillion Revenue Problem

30:26 Are Corporate Margins Sustainable?

33:40 AI Agents, Stablecoins & Crypto

35:06 Why Long-Term Bond Yields Keep Rising

37:50 The Growing Government Debt Problem

40:06 Fed Liquidity & Quantitative Easing

41:20 Stock Market Outlook

42:14 Peter's Portfolio

43:39 Inside Goldman Sachs During the 2008 Crisis

45:57 Current Investment Opportunities?

49:08 Final Thoughts on Peter Berezin

51:05 The Coming Food Inflation Problem

54:50 Are We Entering a Commodity Boom?

55:35 Could the Bank of Canada Cut Rates?

58:21 Final Thoughts

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #tradewar

The U.S. Treasury is taking steps that could help suppress long-term interest rates as exploding government debt and interest costs put increasing pressure on the financial system. We break down what this shift means for bonds, the U.S. dollar, commodities, Canadian housing and global markets. We also touch on Canada-U.S. trade, the Churchill Falls energy deal, rising diesel prices, Argentina, various speculative assets like crypto and Bitcoin skyrocketing, and the worsening economic slowdown in China.

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Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

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Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

08:21 Canadian Housing Update

13:22 Mortgage Rates and Housing Risk

16:04 Canada-U.S. Trade Deal

17:48 Churchill Falls Energy Megadeal

26:53 The U.S. Bond Market Intervention

30:58 How the Treasury Is Suppressing Long Rates

35:53 America’s Exploding Interest Costs

40:36 Canada’s Debt Problem

46:37 What Higher Rates Would Do to Housing

50:48 Commodities vs Financial Repression

54:17 The Commodity Supercycle

56:50 Diesel Prices Are Surging

57:57 Argentina and the Currency Crisis

01:02:52 China’s Economy Is Getting Worse

01:07:25 Global Macro Trends Are Strengthening

01:08:03 Canada Inflation Update

01:08:45 Closing Thoughts

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #globaldebt

We sit down with Jim Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, where he believes that we are setting up for a Secular Bull Market coming up. We go through the global debt problem, and why AI could fuel a massive new investment cycle. Lastly, we'll touch on falling rates, explosive earnings growth, Bitcoin’s generational opportunity, and whether today’s technology boom ultimately ends like the dot-com bubble. We also discuss Canada’s economic challenges, a country deserving to be one of wealthiest in the world, yet decades of poor policy and underinvestment have left us falling behind.

Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings!

For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokers

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Check out Saily at https://www.saily.com/looniehour and use our promo code 'LOONIEHOUR' to get 15% off your first purchase!

Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

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Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

04:41 Introducing Jim Thorne

10:39 What Went Wrong With Canadian Finance?

13:45 Why Canada Is Falling Behind

16:04 Canada’s Natural Resource Problem

22:41 The Global Debt Problem

24:36 Canada Enters Secular Stagnation

29:01 The AI CAPEX Supercycle

33:15 What Happens to Canada and Europe?

34:43 Trump’s Economic Strategy

36:17 Carney Understands the Global Pivot?

38:37 The Problem With Canadian Banks

39:24 Canada’s Coming Structural Adjustment

44:21 Why Higher Rates Can Increase Inflation

45:19 The Fed’s Next Move

49:36 AI, Growth, and the Stock Market

50:19 Why Jim Thinks Bond Yields Fall

56:09 Trump, Crypto, and Tokenization

57:31 The Great Bond Debate

58:07 The Bitcoin Debasement Trade

58:31 “Bitcoin Is a Generational Opportunity”

01:00:40 Post-Interview Reaction

01:02:47 The End of the Keynesian Supercycle

01:05:08 America’s Exploding Interest Bill

01:06:00 Gold, Bitcoin, and Debasement

01:09:35 Can AI Solve the Demographic Problem?

01:11:24 America Is Sucking Capital From the World

01:12:31 The AI Agent Economy

01:13:51 Another Dot-Com Bubble?

01:15:27 Outro

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #bullmarket

Why is the US stepping in to help Japan, and what does it mean for Canadians? China’s multi-decade tax crackdown, and $2.7 billion in new federal funding for rental units - plus the latest data on Canadian housing and rate expectations.

Stay Up To Date With The Loonie Hour Substack:

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Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings!

For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokers

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Schedule an exploration call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: [email protected]

Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

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Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

06:29 Canada’s Housing Market Still Struggling

09:24 Condo Inventory Is Finally Falling

10:50 Where Are Canadian Mortgage Rates Going?

14:58 Is the Housing Crisis Already Being Solved?

18:42 Canada’s Housing Affordability Is Improving

20:11 Is Canada Becoming a Nation of Renters?

23:06 China Launches a Global Tax Hunt

25:21 China’s Banking System Is in Trouble

29:55 Real Estate vs Gold as a Store of Wealth

33:04 Japan’s Yen Crisis Explodes

35:39 The U.S. Steps In to Help Japan

38:13 Why Global Bond Yields Are Rising

41:06 Why America Is Helping Japan

43:34 The U.S. Dollar “Escape Room”

47:15 Trump, Warsh and the Federal Reserve

49:09 Is the Treasury Manipulating the Yield Curve?

51:34 U.S. Housing Is Completely Frozen

53:28 The Politics Behind the Yen Intervention

55:22 Could Jackson Hole Bring a Major Policy Shift?

56:35 America’s 7% Mortgage Problem

58:31 Where Does the Yen Go From Here?

01:00:25 Gold Is Starting to Move Again

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #federalreserve

The Federal Reserve is changing how it communicates with markets, and the ripple effects are being felt across bonds, currencies, housing, and equities. We break down Kevin Warsh’s shift away from forward guidance, why long-term Treasury yields continue to climb, and what it could mean for interest rates going forward. We also discuss New York’s proposed second-home tax and government-backed grocery stores, the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Korea’s margin-call meltdown, growing weakness in the bond market, pressure on the Canadian dollar, and why the energy sector may present one of today’s most compelling investment opportunities.

Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings!

For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokers

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Schedule a call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/

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Stay up to date with our information -

📫 My Real Estate Substack:

https://stevesaretsky.substack.com

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📊➡️ Loonie Hour Socials: https://linktr.ee/looniehour

🎙️ Listen to the Podcast on Your Preferred Platform:

https://linktr.ee/looniehour

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

04:58 Canada’s Housing Bailouts Aren’t Working

09:14 Will Higher Taxes Drive Capital Away?

15:31 Canada’s Empty Homes Taxes

16:57 When Homeowners Are Forced to Sell

20:10 Could Canadian Housing Stagnate for a Decade?

21:51 Kevin Warsh’s New Federal Reserve

22:51 The End of Forward Guidance

24:44 Why the Fed May Raise Interest Rates

26:22 Is the US Dollar About to Explode Higher?

28:34 Quantitative Easing Never Really Ended

30:50 What to Expect at Jackson Hole

32:19 US 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge

33:49 Could Long-Term Rates Eventually Reach 20%?

37:02 America’s Growing Debt Wall

39:01 Why the Bond Market Keeps Deteriorating

41:48 The US-Iran War Escalates Again

42:44 Are We Already in World War III?

45:13 The Rotation Out of Technology Stocks

46:22 Korea’s Leveraged Investing Disaster

47:02 The AI Hedge Fund That Blew Up

50:59 The Market’s Back-to-Back Bubbles

52:15 Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on the Canadian Dollar

54:26 The Market’s Biggest Current Debate

55:12 US Mortgage Rates Reach a One-Year High

56:19 America’s Multifamily Housing Crisis

57:06 Cheap Money Created an Oversupply Problem

57:30 The Feds Inflated Home Prices

Disclaimer:

The information within our content is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a "loonie" into any of these financial markets.

#LoonieHour #macroeconomics #geopolitics