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The Canadian real estate market is facing significant transitions in 2025, with the Bank of Canada's policy rate at 3.25% and 60% of homeowners facing mortgage renewals over the next two years⁠. National Bank forecasts potential rate cuts followed by hikes in 2026⁠1⁠, while strong December job numbers cast doubt on anticipated rate cuts⁠1⁠.

• Capital gains tax changes are creating uncertainty, with the CRA moving forward with a 67% inclusion rate despite pending parliamentary approval⁠1⁠.
• Demographic shifts show seniors are now more likely to have mortgages than young adults, with 49% of mortgage debt held by those aged 45-64⁠
• Variable-rate mortgages are expected to make a comeback in 2025 as interest rates trend downward⁠, though economic indicators and potential U.S. tariffs could impact the market

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We examine whether foreign buyers significantly impact housing affordability and discuss the effectiveness of government measures like the foreign ownership ban. With insights into the top countries investing in Canadian real estate and a look at the opportunities Canadians pursue abroad.

• Impact Analysis: Evaluate how foreign investment influences housing prices and availability in Canada.
• Regulatory Measures: Discuss the effectiveness and loopholes of the Canadian foreign ownership ban.
• Global Investment Trends: Highlight the top foreign countries investing in Canada and the destinations where Canadians are investing abroad.

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Justin Trudeau announces his resignation as Prime Minister amid a housing affordability crisis, following his father's historic "walk in the snow" forty years ago. As housing costs and mortgage rates squeeze Canadian homeowners and renters alike, the Liberal Party faces record-low polling numbers. Potential successors Freeland, Carney, and Fraser must now address the party's troubled housing legacy and propose solutions to Canada's real estate challenges.

• Mark Carney's background in financial markets and monetary policy positions him as a strong contender to address Canada's housing market instability and mortgage affordability crisis
• The Trudeau government's housing initiatives, including the Home Buyers' Bill of Rights and attempts to curb foreign investment, largely failed to contain soaring real estate prices and rental costs
• As housing remains a top election issue, opposition parties are gaining ground with alternative housing platforms, promising to boost supply and address affordability through various policy measures

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Canada's rental market in 2024 saw record new construction and higher vacancy rates (2.2%), though still below historical averages.

New tenants faced 23.5% rent increases, while overall two-bedroom rents rose 5.4%. Despite more availability, affordability remained challenging as new construction focused on luxury units.

• Calgary led rent increases, while Toronto saw slower growth due to rent control and increased supply
• Calgary and Edmonton saw significant construction but longer vacancy periods
• Rent affordability remained a challenge, particularly in Ontario where payment delinquencies increased

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Despite current challenges, Canada remains positioned for growth, ranking among top G7 nations in GDP, population, and employment growth. Interest rates are expected to decline to around 2.25% by spring 2025, with the Bank of Canada aiming for a soft landing. The real estate market shows signs of recovery across various sectors, with investment volumes projected to reach $48 billion in 2025.

• Immigration policy changes will moderate economic growth, with temporary residents reducing from 7% to 5% of the population
• Commercial real estate shows sector-specific trends: office spaces prioritizing experience, retail expanding to secondary markets, and industrial market working toward normalization
• The investment market is projected to recover with improved sentiment and increased lending activity, though with more conservative underwriting approaches

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We look at how PropTech (property technology) companies are moving from Canada to the US market. A close look at how much bigger the US market is - with $24.7 trillion in commercial real estate and $88.9 trillion in residential real estate. 

• Canada offers a strong foundation for PropTech companies with its robust education system, skilled talent pool, and favorable immigration programs that foster a thriving tech ecosystem
• The US real estate market is over ten times larger than Canada's, but the residential mortgage market is only 6.4 times larger, indicating Canada's higher home price-to-income ratio
• Successful expansion requires careful market selection, strategic partnerships, and focusing on customers with high growth potential

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Canadian real estate is showing recovery signs, with November sales up 2.8% and the first price increase in 18 months, but will it last? Winter activity has increased due to lower rates and mortgage reforms, though the recovery remains vulnerable to economic uncertainties.

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 59.2% in November, with inventory dropping to 3.7 months, indicating a tightening market favorable to sellers⁠⁠​
• Ontario and British Columbia saw significant price drops since 2022 peak (-20% and -11% respectively), while Atlantic provinces showed strong growth⁠⁠​
• Spring market performance will be crucial, with potential headwinds including economic downturn fears, slower population growth, and job losses⁠⁠​

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This episode explores the varying lifespans of different building types, from historical structures lasting 500-1,000 years to modern commercial buildings lasting 60-80 years. It covers the economic life of buildings, including factors like location, property type, and market conditions that influence their viability. 

• Building materials and construction quality significantly impact longevity, with concrete structures lasting around 100 years and steel structures lasting 100-150 years.
• The economic life of a building depends on multiple factors including location, property management, and market conditions, affecting its ability to generate revenue over time.
• Regular maintenance and understanding of depreciation are crucial for extending a building's lifespan, with various components having different life expectancies, from 15 years for paint to 100 years for masonry.

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The Emerging Trends report, collaboratively produced by ULI and PWC with 175 contributors, provides comprehensive insights into various markets and asset classes across Canada⁠. While some markets struggle with high interest rates and construction costs, others like Calgary and Edmonton are benefiting from strong population growth and relative affordability⁠⁠.

• Toronto's condo market faces its "toughest challenge in decades" with record-high unsold inventory of 25,893 units and numerous delayed projects⁠.
• Calgary leads as the top real estate prospect for 2025, driven by strong population growth (87,000 new residents) and economic diversification⁠
• Secondary markets like Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg are gaining attention for their affordability and growth potential, with Edmonton ranking 4th for overall real estate prospects in 2025

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