In this jam packed news episode we cover a wide variety of stories, including:

• Market Transformation: The Ontario cottage market is experiencing significant price drops (up to 20.3%) amid increasing inventory and cooling demand, while Canadian investors are withdrawing from U.S. real estate investments with potential for $650+ million flowing back into Canadian markets.
• Economic Uncertainty: Major Canadian banks have widely divergent forecasts for Bank of Canada's next moves, with some predicting no rate cuts in 2025 while others expect cuts of 75 basis points by early 2026, as Toronto's mortgage delinquencies have tripled to a 12-year high.
• Regional Rental Landscape: Canada's provincial rent control policies vary dramatically in 2025, from Ontario's 2.5% cap to completely uncapped increases in Prairie provinces, creating different investment opportunities and challenges across the country.

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We are joined by our amazing hosts to discuss the national market updates as well as go over the CREA stats. 

• National home sales rose 2.8% in June 2025 (following a 3.6% increase in May), but prices remained flat at around $691,000, showing a rebound in activity but not in prices.
• Significant regional differences exist with Ontario and BC in buyers' market territory (Ontario at 38% sales-to-new-listings ratio, BC with 6.5 months of inventory), while Alberta and Manitoba remain sellers' markets with much lower inventory levels.
• "The Age of the Measured Move" where strategy and patience are key, with a stable but fragile market where buyers have real opportunities especially in Ontario and BC.

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We are joined by CMHC's Chief Economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, to discuss the findings of his new report. The report highlights the need to nearly double housing starts (from 250,000 to 480,000 annually) to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2035. 

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We explore Canada's economic stagnation, drawing parallels to Japan's "Lost Decade" of the 1990s. Canada is experiencing its own version of a lost decade with declining productivity (falling for 13 straight quarters despite an educated workforce), stagnant per capita wealth (producing no more wealth per person than in 2014), overreliance on real estate for economic growth (accounting for over 20% of GDP), lack of business investment in productivity-enhancing capital, rising household debt (101.2% of nominal GDP) with stagnant income growth, and housing shortages amid rapid population growth (creating a "population trap"). The hosts warn that conventional economic remedies may be insufficient, as demonstrated by Japan's decades-long stagnation despite trying various policy approaches.

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There are some major shifts in Canada's real estate market in 2025-2027, highlighting three key trends: Interest Rate Stabilization, Collapsing International Student Enrollment, Historic Population Growth Slowdown

• RBC predicts the Bank of Canada will maintain rates at 2.75% with no further cuts expected, forcing investors to adjust their strategies rather than hoping for lower rates.
• Many Canadian colleges are experiencing a 50% drop in international students due to federal policy changes, with some institutions like Conestoga College seeing up to 95% reductions. This is causing significant vacancy risks for student rental investors.
•  Canada's population grew by only 20,107 people (essentially 0%) in Q1 2025, the lowest growth in almost 80 years. This is primarily due to reduced immigration and a decrease of 61,000 non-permanent residents.

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Should you buy a rental property or invest in a REIT? In this episode, Dan welcomes Simon from the Canadian Investor Podcast to break down the pros and cons of both strategies. Simon goes over some of the key metrics to look at when analyzing a REIT. From payout ratios and leverage limits to tenant base and growth strategy, we cover the critical factors that separate the good from the bad. Whether you're new to real estate investing or looking to diversify your portfolio, this episode will help you decide which path makes the most sense for your goals.

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Did you know approximately 10% of home sales happen without ever being publicly listed? Off-market properties offer exclusivity and advantages for both buyers and sellers, including privacy, reduced competition, and potentially better negotiation terms.

We explore what makes these deals unique, the appeal of "insider" opportunities, and detail strategies for finding these hidden gems. From driving for dollars and mail campaigns to leveraging wholesaler relationships, this episode gives Canadian investors practical methods to find properties before they hit the market.

These strategies help investors of all experience levels avoid bidding wars and secure better deals off-market. We also address potential drawbacks including pricing challenges and limited exposure, providing a complete view of off-market investing.

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How do Cap Rates work? Why & how they change & why every investor needs to understand them, especially in a down market.

• Cap Rate Math Impact: A 2.5% cap rate increase (4% to 6.5%) can cause a 38.5% property value drop, potentially eliminating equity for leveraged investors.
• Recession Patterns: Cap rates rise during downturns as investors require higher returns for increased risk, even when interest rates initially fall.
• Investor Strategy: Savvy investors avoid assuming further cap rate compression and instead stress-test for expansion to ensure investments can withstand market changes.

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Homeownership remains a strong aspiration for many Canadians despite affordability challenges. A Habitat for Humanity/Deloitte study shows significant benefits of ownership versus renting, including income growth and improved health outcomes. Yet, Canada's homeownership rate dropped from 69% (2011) to 66.5% (2021), with young adults particularly affected. 

• Strong Desire Despite Challenges: 84% of young Canadians (18-38) believe homeownership is worthwhile despite affordability issues.
• Measurable Benefits: Homeowners experienced 28% higher incomes than comparable renters, with 73% reporting better physical health.
• Declining Accessibility: Homeownership among 25-29 year-olds fell from 44% to 36.5% over a decade.

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The Canadian housing market in May 2025 showed signs of movement but not a dramatic rebound. 

National home sales increased by 3.6% month-over-month, primarily driven by Toronto, Calgary, and Ottawa. However, supply is outpacing demand, with new listings up 3.1% and total active listings up 13.2% year-over-year. The market has entered what's being called a "negotiation market" where buyers have more leverage and choices.

• The market is showing increased activity but remains cautious - sales are up but still 4.3% below last year's levels
• Supply is increasing significantly with the sales-to-new listings ratio at 47%, below the 10-year average of 55%
• Prices are stabilizing with the national average at $691,299, down 1.8% from last May, with significant regional variations - Ontario and BC showing declines while Quebec, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are seeing increases

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