The ceasefire may be holding, but the indicators beneath the surface suggest the Middle East remains dangerously unstable.

As internet access slowly returns in Iran and diplomatic channels reopen, questions are growing about whether the US, Iran and Israel are genuinely moving towards a deal, or simply regrouping before the next escalation. Donald Trump is pushing for a wider regional settlement built around the Abraham Accords, while Iran is demanding access to frozen assets and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely: the nature of recent US and Iranian strikes, the strategic importance of Lebanon’s ceasefire, and the growing pressure for political progress before the conflict spirals again.

They’re joined by Lina Khatib from Chatham House.