Asia's Developing Future

“The US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has paved the way for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to dominate and have a greater influence in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Geethanjali Nataraj of India’s Institute of Public Administration at a recent Asian Development Bank Institute seminar.

Japan has picked up the baton and is trying save the TPP, without the US, and is open to inviting the PRC and the Republic of Korea, initially excluded from the negotiations, to join late-stage talks. Some members are shifting back to bilateral deals with the US.

The Asian economic region is scrambling to build alternative multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, but none will have the consensus of or be as comprehensive and expansive as the TPP.

One that is growing in popularity is the PRC’s “One Road One Belt” initiative, a 21st century land and sea Silk Road linking Asia through Central Asia to the European Union, and expected to involve 60 economies accounting for 40% of global GDP.

It is a centerpiece of the PRC’s foreign policy and timed to be in place by 2049, the country’s centenary.

Economists say it will relieve the pressure of overcapacity on the PRC’s economy by allowing it to spread its production base and bypass protectionism by importing and exporting finished products.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2vZMdSY

Watch the complete presentation

https://youtu.be/a-GMkiRYctU

Know more about ADBI’s work on the TPP

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Win-Win—How International Trade Can Help Meet the Sustainable Development Goals was recently published by ADBI and edited by ADBI senior economist Matthias Helble and Ben Shepherd, principal at Developing Trade Consultants.

The book looks at what can be realistically achieved after the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Summit, where some 150 world leaders adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including the Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs.

The 17 SDGs, also known as the Global Goals, aim to end poverty, hunger, and inequality; act on climate change and the environment; improve access to health and education; build strong institutions and partnerships; and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity.

Twenty-five economists and analysts examined the UN goals in the real context of developing economies, picking apart such areas as poverty, hunger, the role of women, job creation, inequality, the environment and climate change, fisheries, food safety, education, health care, urbanization, and infrastructure.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2xfEZcL

Read the book

https://www.adb.org/publications/win-win-how-international-trade-can-help-meet-sdgs

Edited by

Matthias Helble, ADBI senior economist and co-chair of the Research Department

https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/matthias-helble

Ben Shepherd, principal at Developing Trade Consultants

Know more about ADBI’s work on the Sustainable Development Goals

http://bit.ly/2xb7XuB

The debate about the influence of exchange rates volatility on trade is intensifying, as US President Donald Trump attempts to blame the People’s Republic of China’s exchange rate policy for the US current account deficit.

The link between exchange rates and trade is a complex one, and while there are several analyses of this relationship, none are considered definitive.

Some experts say exchange rate volatility increases the uncertainty of companies about potential export profit, leading them to reduce exports, but that is theoretical. Others say a significant proportion of companies will increase exports, aiming to offset the loss on each exported unit. The latter explanation is strongly contested.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2eTI5cI

Read the blog post

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/04/how-does-exchange-rate-volatility-affect-value-added-and-gross-trade/

Author

Yizhe Daniel Xie is a PhD candidate at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, and a non-resident fellow at the CSIS Pacific Forum.

Obesity has reached world-wide epidemic proportions. Overweight and obesity weaken the body, hamper lower-body mobility, and impede daily activities. In older people, they cause physical dysfunction and increase the risk of disability. Overweight and obesity also raise the risks for ischemic heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, and certain cancers.

Both conditions could severely undermine the economic and human development of the region, and seriously threaten the region’s prosperity.

What can be done?

Read the transcript:

http://bit.ly/2iV9Nu5

Read the report:

http://bit.ly/2rHNSZQ

Authors

Matthias Helble, ADBI senior economist and co-chair of the Research Department

https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/matthias-helble

Kris Francisco, ADBI research associate

https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/kris-francisco

Read a related ADBI blog post:

Obesity in Pacific Island countries and territories: How big a problem is it?

By Jillian Wate

http://bit.ly/2xqE5b5

Muhammad Yunus believes the world must look again at what banks should be—and what they should do. The Bangladeshi Nobel laureate and founder of Grameen Bank also wants to upend our thinking about jobs and entrepreneurship. He sent a video message to the Global Think Tank Summit held in Yokohama in May, and organized by the Asian Development Bank Institute and the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania. He spoke about the microcredit institution he founded some 40 years ago. He started Grameen after seeing the life-changing effects of lending his own money to poor villagers near his university at Chittagong.

Read the transcript:

http://bit.ly/2vCOtzz

Watch the full presentation:

http://bit.ly/2wWTH9l

With the United States walking away this year from multilateral deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement on climate change, is globalization doomed? Guntram Wolff, the director of Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel, thinks not, given the importance of Europe and Asia.

If the United States doesn’t change course, he says, the responsibility for Europe and Asia to work jointly on sustaining the multilateral system will become fundamentally important.

Guntram Wolff is the director of Brussels-based economic think tank, Bruegel. He spoke at the Global Think Tank Summit in May 2017, in Yokohama.

Read the transcript:

http://bit.ly/2gaxFsL

Watch the full presentation:

http://bit.ly/2xxuCOs

Know more about the Global Think Tank Summit 2017:

http://bit.ly/2n9l5g2

Know more about ADBI’s work on globalization:

http://bit.ly/2xhkREO

Women in emerging Asian economies will be big winners in e-commerce and online trade, which will help them overcome geographic isolation and limited access to information and financing. But obstacles remain.

E-commerce helps women overcome the challenges of building a business. Working from home lowers overhead and setup costs, makes it easier to access the latest information, and removes geographic limitations through online trading.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2wL0j9P

Read the policy brief

https://www.adb.org/publications/development-dimension-e-commerce-asia-opportunities-and-challenges

Authors

Aladdin Rillo, ADBI senior economist, https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/aladdin-rillo

Valdimir dela Cruz, a former ADBI research associate

Know more about ADBI’s work on

Digital economy http://bit.ly/2ivDzFy

E-commerce http://bit.ly/2vaEDV8

Women and trade http://bit.ly/2oHrYW9

A fast-growing digital economy is opening new opportunities for small and large businesses, but developing Asia is hampered by a lack of infrastructure and outmoded regulations.

International cooperation and coordination with development partners will help standardize simple, transparent, and effective processes for global business, as will efficient and automated exchange of information.

The private sector should focus on market infrastructure to support a digitally driven economy. It needs to develop new business models and encourage innovation to realize the full impact of digital connectivity. It must reassure consumers that their privacy will be respected, that the goods will be of good quality and arrive on time, and that payment systems are secure and they can get their money back if needed.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2ivIVRe

Read the policy brief

https://www.adb.org/publications/development-dimension-e-commerce-asia-opportunities-and-challenges

Authors

Aladdin Rillo, ADBI senior economist, https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/aladdin-rillo

Valdimir dela Cruz, a former ADBI research associate

Know more about ADBI’s work on

Digital economy http://bit.ly/2ivDzFy

E-commerce http://bit.ly/2vaEDV8

Local communities in Japan are taking sustainable energy into their own hands, with small investors backing wind and solar projects instead of waiting for the government to act. Hometown investment trust funds are using the Internet to tap local investors for 100 dollars to 5,000 dollars to fund projects where they live.

Banks are reluctant to finance renewable energy projects, deeming them too risky. Alternative financing vehicles are supporting growth in risky sectors in Asia. Hometown investment trust funds have spread from Japan to Cambodia, Mongolia, Peru, and Viet Nam, and are also attracting attention from the government of Thailand and Malaysia’s central bank.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2xa9H3Z

Read the blog post

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/04/hometown-investment-trust-funds-a-sustainable-solution-for-financing-green-energy-projects/

Authors

Naoyuki Yoshino, dean, ADBI

https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/dean

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, assistant economics professor at Keio University, Tokyo

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/farhad-taghizadeh-hesary/

Know more about ADBI’s work on hometown investment trust funds

http://bit.ly/2vO13J0

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has delayed establishing an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by a decade as it strives to emulate the European Union and promote collective growth.

The AEC failed to reach agreement on 105 of 506 measures by its 2015 deadline. A successor blueprint, called the AEC Blueprint 2025, which lays out the work for ASEAN economic integration in the next 10 years, was adopted at the 27th ASEAN Summit in November 2015.

But economists question whether economic integration of such a disparate group of economies is feasible in scope and ambition. And even if possible, they question whether the AEC can do a better job of hastening reforms and binding ASEAN member states to their commitments at a time of increasing uncertainty and rising protectionist pressures in the global economy.

Simply put, the ASEAN Economic Community Council needs to replace the so-called “ASEAN Way” of doing business, which is consensus driven and any step can be blocked if one member doesn’t like the outcome. A whole way of thinking must change if 2025 is to amount to anything more than a date on a page.

Read the transcript

http://bit.ly/2wVE1Qz

Read the blog post

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/07/will-2025-be-the-final-deadline-for-the-asean-economic-community/

Authors

Jayant Menon, lead economist, Asian Development Bank

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/jayant-menon/

Anna Cassandra Melendez, consultant, Asian Development Bank

https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/anna-cassandra-melendez/

Know more ADBI’s work on ASEAN

http://bit.ly/2wVtzbJ