AST SpaceMobile Podcast

SpaceX buys Grain Management spectrum - why Anpanman says it's bullish for AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and locks in the carriers.

In this episode, Anpanman reacts to the news that SpaceX is acquiring Grain Management's low-band spectrum, alongside a major FCC order released the same day. He explains why the deal looks negative for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile at first glance, but strengthens the strategic case for AST SpaceMobile. The ASTS stock knee-jerk reaction, the carriers' after-hours selloff and what SpaceX's plan to become a fourth mobile network operator means for the direct-to-cell race are all covered.

Anpanman breaks down the FCC order opening up around 480 MHz of carrier spectrum for satellite direct-to-device use, and how the Telco JV fits in. He also covers the antitrust angle, T-Mobile's awkward position with Starlink and why a definitive AST agreement could come sooner than expected. The global picture includes sovereign satellite concerns, Japan and Europe, and Amazon, Globalstar and Iridium as alternatives.

The second half is a live Q&A on Grain's likely price, SpaceX's low-band timeline, launch updates including Blue Origin and Falcon 9, and whether the Telco JV should invest in AST.

00:00 Introduction

00:45 SpaceX acquires Grain Management spectrum

02:59 Carriers plus AST vs Starlink

04:26 Why not Amazon or Globalstar

05:40 FCC order opens carrier spectrum for direct-to-device

06:58 The Telco JV explained

09:01 T-Mobile and Starlink's awkward relationship

10:44 Antitrust review and JV pricing concerns

13:55 T-Mobile lock-in and carrier stock selloff

16:02 Global sovereignty and Starlink as an operator

20:54 Why SpaceX didn't buy an existing carrier

27:24 Launch updates and Falcon 9 bookings

29:39 Live Q&A begins

33:23 What was Grain's asking price

37:11 Is AST too late vs Starlink low-band

38:36 Biggest win and loss for AST

40:16 Will a T-Mobile announcement come soon

42:24 AST's competitive advantage vs Amazon and Iridium

44:25 Should the JV invest in AST

46:49 Closing thoughts

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#astspacemobile #SpaceX #TMobile

T-Mobile scrubbed Starlink from its T-Satellite site. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) news: Canada, the State Dept and Japan's $1B J-LEO.

In this episode, Anpanman breaks down why T-Mobile removing Starlink references from its T-Satellite website right after the carrier joint venture with AT&T and Verizon is such a big strategic signal for AST SpaceMobile. He covers T-Mobile's history with Starlink and spectrum, and why AST's wholesale direct-to-cell model leaves customer acquisition, billing, and spectrum to the carriers.

Anpanman then looks at Canada, where Telus completed integration testing with AST SpaceMobile, and at whether Rogers will move away from Starlink. He also covers the US State Department joint statement with Japan that named Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile, the $1B sovereign J-LEO satellite constellation, and how it could tie into Golden Dome, defense, sensing, electronic warfare, and PNT.

The episode wraps with listener Q&A on Canadian market share, the J-LEO joint venture status, and how many more ASTS stock offerings may be needed before service starts. Anpanman also discusses possible non-dilutive funding, a possible US government stake, production capacity, and the book The Kill Chain.

00:00 Introduction

00:42 T-Mobile scrubs Starlink from T-Satellite site

01:23 T-Mobile history and the Starlink spectrum deal

04:40 T-Mobile joins the AT&T and Verizon JV

06:31 AST's super wholesaler model

09:10 Why T-Mobile's shift matters

11:32 Canada: Telus integration testing

12:34 Rogers, Starlink and Lynk

14:43 Ligado spectrum and Block 3 BlueBirds

15:07 State Department US-Japan announcement

17:59 Rakuten J-LEO sovereign constellation

19:22 The Kill Chain and Golden Dome

23:54 Production capacity and government demand

25:51 Electronic warfare, sensing and PNT

29:24 Q&A: Canadian market share

31:03 J-LEO approval and JV status

33:02 Dilution and funding outlook

38:57 Closing thoughts

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#astspacemobile #TMobile #Rakuten

AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 11 came in nominal and batch 3 is in orbit. Kook breaks down the ASTS T-Mobile deal bet and more.

Kook opens by reacting to the news that BlueBird 11 was nominal, walking through the competing theories about whether the satellite was stuck and why the deployment record for AST SpaceMobile stays perfect. He argues the flawless execution reflects a military-grade approach to testing and reliability, and covers the launch of batch 3 (BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16) on another SpaceX flight, with more launches expected soon.

Kook then lays out why he believes a T-Mobile deal is imminent, pointing to the completed MNO joint venture, T-Mobile scrubbing Starlink content from its website, new FCC filings, Grain spectrum, and the Ligado docket. He also explains why he sees Viasat and other would-be direct-to-cell competitors as lacking the people, prime contractors, designs and regulatory approvals to compete with ASTS.

The episode wraps with Sirius XM's COO joining the company, the vertical opportunity of tracking cows over direct-to-cell, satellites in the military kill chain, M&A hiring, and how ASTS stock has returned about 35% a year since the SPAC despite a 90% drawdown.

00:00 Introduction and sound check

00:38 BlueBird 11 nominal reaction

01:43 Perfect deployment record

04:01 The Kill Chain and military-grade assets

06:54 Abel's execution and team

08:56 Batch 3 launch BlueBird 14-16

10:54 Delays and the retail investor

12:31 Why competitors lack people

15:15 MNO joint venture and T-Mobile bet

17:19 T-Mobile scrubs Starlink

18:47 Mongolia and bear claims

21:22 Tracking cows and vertical TAM

24:57 Sirius XM COO joins ASTS

27:14 Spectrum, FCC and Ligado/Grain

30:03 Viasat leadership concerns

31:52 Iridium and Ligado docket

33:11 Satellites and the kill chain

36:18 M&A hiring and SpaceX

38:49 ASTS returns since the SPAC

40:30 Closing and stablecoin research

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#astspacemobile #TMobile #BlueBird

AST SpaceMobile ASTS: Anpanman breaks down the AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile telco JV and B. Riley's $85 to $65 downgrade.

Anpanman digs into the newly announced joint venture between AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile and explains why he believes it squarely fits AST SpaceMobile and was formed to counter Starlink. He covers the pooling of scarce low-band spectrum, open standards versus proprietary networks, the regulatory path through the DOJ and FCC, and why direct-to-cell competitors like Amazon and Iridium don't fit the JV's model.

Next, Anpanman reviews the new Chief Commercial Officer hire, Wayne Thorson, and goes point by point through the B. Riley downgrade of ASTS stock. Topics include satellite count and capex, spectrum needs in Europe and the US, GRAIN Management's 800 MHz spectrum, the 1.6 GHz FCC push, and pricing pressure from the Viasat and Space42 Equitas JV.

The episode wraps with a live Q&A covering Iridium's FCC opposition, New Glenn launch concerns, the J-LEO and Rakuten JV, and Anpanman's speculation on the Bluebird 14, 15 and 16 Falcon 9 launch window.

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Telco JV Announcement Overview

02:20 JV Built to Counter Starlink

06:43 Pooling Low-Band Spectrum

10:35 Open Competition and Regulatory Language

14:23 Open Standards and Bent-Pipe Architecture

17:37 Starlink, Amazon, and Iridium Proprietary Networks

21:12 Buyer Cartel Fears and Pricing

28:20 DOJ Second Request and Timeline

29:26 New CCO Wayne Thorson

37:05 B. Riley Downgrade Breakdown

42:39 Spectrum: Europe, GRAIN, and 1.6 GHz

50:42 Equitas and Pricing Pressure

59:40 Starlink Competition and Distribution

1:04:48 Q&A: IoT, Catalysts, and Acquisition

1:09:12 Iridium FCC Opposition

1:13:18 New Glenn Launch Questions

1:19:48 J-LEO and Rakuten JV

1:24:51 Bluebirds 14-16 Launch Speculation

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#astspacemobile #TelcoJV #BRiley

AST SpaceMobile's Bluebirds 14-16 are shipped and Bluebird 11 unfolded. Anpanman breaks down the ASTS news and launch window.

In this episode, Anpanman covers confirmation that the Bluebird 14, 15 and 16 satellites have shipped, and that the Bluebird 11 phased array unfolded successfully. He explains why the company may have delayed its PR, why it should keep the details of the unfolding private, and why AST SpaceMobile has a perfect record for satellites that reached orbit. Anpanman also looks at the expected Falcon 9 launch timing for this batch of direct-to-cell satellites.

The discussion then turns to the ASTS stock price. Anpanman argues that 30-year rates matching 2002 highs and the war are driving space stocks like Rocket Lab and Planet Labs, not company execution. He also covers Abel's meeting with FCC Chair Carr on 6 GHz spectrum and a possible 1600 MHz auction that would fit with Ligado, and he names a T-Mobile definitive agreement as a major potential catalyst.

Anpanman closes with a look at Block 2 engineering and the composite ring redesign, plus how Block 3 and Starlink V2 direct-to-cell compare. He also reflects on community FUD, critics tied to Viasat and the Ligado timeline, and why position sizing matters and options and margin are risky in a volatile name.

00:00 Introduction

00:34 Why the company delayed the PR

01:33 Bluebird 11 unfolding confirmed

03:10 Why details should stay proprietary

05:44 Perfect record and Bluebird 7

06:16 Rates and space stocks move together

08:11 Abel meets FCC Chair Carr on spectrum

10:39 Upcoming catalysts and T-Mobile

12:03 Falcon 9 launch timing and manifest

13:35 FUD and community behavior

17:45 Defending Abel and management

21:44 Getting it right beats moving fast

24:08 Block 2 engineering and the composite ring

27:35 Block 3 and Starlink V2 comparison

30:56 Position sizing and options risk

41:06 Critics, Viasat and the Ligado timeline

47:57 Falcon 9 fairing claims debunked

49:46 Government awards and closing thoughts

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #Bluebird11

AST SpaceMobile's new 8-K adds change-of-control severance. Anpanman breaks down what it means for ASTS stock and a possible deal.

In this episode, Anpanman digs into the AST SpaceMobile 8-K filed after the close, which sets up double-trigger change-of-control severance for senior executives. He explains how these packages work and why boards adopt them. He also covers why he sees this filing as off-cycle rather than routine housekeeping, and how the Iridium and Rocket Lab timeline offers a real precedent. Along the way he points to the hire of Ozzy Ramos and the Adriana Cisneros open-market share purchase as context.

Anpanman then walks through who might be talking to AST SpaceMobile about direct-to-cell partnerships, joint ventures, or strategic investments. The list includes T-Mobile, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Blue Origin, and Amazon. He also explains why Abel's high-vote shares make a sale unlikely for ASTS stock in the near term, and what price range a buyer might need to consider given spectrum value and industry comps like Globalstar, Iridium, and Viasat.

The Q&A covers a possible Blue Origin reverse merger, unusual call option flow, data sovereignty concerns, and the satellite production delays. Anpanman also shares his view that BlueBird 14, 15, and 16 are being shipped to Florida, with launches possible in October and November.

00:00 Introduction

00:07 Change of control severance and double triggers explained

02:31 Why companies put these plans in place

04:15 8-Ks as an event-driven research signal

06:48 Abel's high-vote control and why a sale is unlikely

10:29 Why this filing looks off-cycle

12:20 Ozzy Ramos hire and his telecom and space relationships

14:42 Adriana Cisneros share purchase and materiality

17:17 Iridium and Rocket Lab precedent

23:36 Strategic talks: MNOs and joint ventures

26:32 SpaceX and Tesla vertical stack, Blue Origin, Amazon

28:59 Google, Meta, and Microsoft rationale

40:27 Q&A: Blue Origin reverse merger

42:36 Unusual call option flow

44:08 BlueBird 14-16 delays and satellite shipping

50:00 Meta and data sovereignty

53:07 Takeout price range and Globalstar, Iridium, Viasat comps

58:06 Other reasons for executive protection

1:00:08 Launch outlook and closing thoughts

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

#astspacemobile #ASTS #ChangeOfControl

AST SpaceMobile's BB11 satellite may be stuck or deployed - Kook digs into TLE data, maxed-out shorts, and AT&T's direct-to-cell push.

Kook returns from being off the grid straight into fresh TLE data on BlueBird 11, weighing whether the satellite's array successfully unfurled, got stuck mid-deployment, or needs to be deorbited. He compares the situation to BW3's 2021 bolt issue, where a stuck deployment was fixed with new software and thermal cycling, and explains why difficulty doesn't mean disaster for AST SpaceMobile.

On the ASTS stock side, Kook breaks down why short interest just hit 100% utilization, why implied volatility has collapsed, and why Reddit posting activity is a useful (if imperfect) proxy for market complacency, all while the Falcon 9 launch queue clears behind Crew Dragon traffic.

He also connects the dots between AI and satellite connectivity, covering AT&T's direct-to-cell advertising push, a phone company's quote calling it the biggest thing since texting, Meta's Muse app, and why AI voice bandwidth is light enough for satellites to handle easily. Kook wraps with thoughts on Blue Origin's valuation, Canada diversifying away from SpaceX, and why he believes the space industry is becoming the next Mag-7.

00:00 Introduction and TLE data check

00:45 BB11 deployment difficulty theories

03:01 BW3's 2021 deployment issue recap

04:39 Stuck, deployed, or deorbit scenarios

05:52 Falcon 9 launch queue clearing

06:54 Short interest hits 100% utilization

07:33 Reddit and implied volatility signals

10:11 AT&T's direct-to-cell ad push

11:25 Phone company RPU growth quote

12:18 Meta's Muse app and AI flow

14:39 Is AI bandwidth-friendly for satellites?

17:06 MVNO frustrations and vertical integration

19:29 Canada diversifying away from SpaceX

21:34 Space industry as the next Mag-7

23:56 Equitus 2028 satellite mockery

26:00 Closing thoughts and TLE follow-up

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

#astspacemobile #BlueBird11 #ShortSqueeze

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) sentiment is near all-time lows while short interest hits record highs - Anpanman breaks down what's next.

Anpanman opens with the setup: implied volatility near all-time lows, short interest at an all-time high (65-94M shares), and sentiment washed out across Reddit and X. He argues these three ingredients, combined with looming catalysts, create the conditions for a violent rerating in ASTS stock, just like the move from $2 to $39 after the AT&T and Verizon deals.

He then digs into the near-term picture for satellite production and launches, including Bluebird 11 deployment questions, batch 3 and batch 4 shipment timing, and Blue Origin's New Glenn tower stacking ahead of a possible December static fire. Anpanman also covers Golden Dome, the 800 MHz Grain spectrum decision, the US Telco JV, and why a T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom direct-to-cell agreement could be the biggest catalyst yet.

The episode wraps with a candid warning about options and leveraged ETFs like ASTX, why sizing matters more than being right on catalysts, and a live Q&A covering beta service targets, commercial service timelines, Meta rumors, and potential long-term acquirers.

00:00 Introduction

01:38 Implied volatility near all-time lows

02:56 Short interest at an all-time high

03:51 Sentiment near all-time lows and communication concerns

06:10 Why delays are part of building something hard

07:38 The washed-out setup meets upcoming catalysts

09:02 Comparing ASTS to other space stocks

11:37 Lessons from the AT&T and Verizon rerating

12:31 Golden Dome and 800 MHz spectrum from Grain

13:06 US Telco JV and T-Mobile discussions

15:09 Bluebird 11 deployment update

17:19 Why losing a satellite isn't a big deal

19:35 More catalysts: T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, JLEO

20:07 Blue Origin New Glenn tower stacking update

21:19 Options risk and sizing lessons

27:19 Why leveraged ETFs like ASTX are dangerous

33:49 Reflecting on the current drawdown

41:18 Q&A: beta service targets and stock price outlook

48:15 Q&A: commercial service timeline and launch cadence

50:50 Q&A: Meta rumors and potential acquirers

54:16 Q&A: T-Mobile timing and radar award

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

#astspacemobile #TMobile #DirectToCell

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) went strangely quiet at the Paris satellite conference this week - Kook breaks down why, plus the Bluebird 11 mystery.

Kook opens with a candid look at retail sentiment hitting rock bottom, admitting he's been distracted by a personal stablecoin (USDe) investment while ASTS stock stays quiet. He dives deep into the Bluebird 11 satellite mystery, walking through TLE tracking data, mean motion comparisons to BW12 and BW13, and the theories around possible station-keeping testing.

The episode covers the surprisingly muted Paris Air Show appearance from AST SpaceMobile, founder Abel Avellan's hands-on leadership style, and why Kook remains skeptical of Viasat's Equatus JV and its prime-contractor approach. He also unpacks the sovereignty and defense trend accelerating across Europe and Asia, Michael Pollock's comments on U.S. Space Force interest, and fresh FCC approvals for international IMT and V-band spectrum.

Rounding out the discussion is a look at the Rocket Lab ATM's odd correlation with ASTS price action, a Wells Fargo forecast on Starlink subscriber growth, New Glenn's return to the pad, and why Kook believes AI data centers in space and direct-to-cell connectivity are two of the biggest long-term secular trends in the sector.

00:00 Introduction and retail sentiment check

01:00 Kook's crypto distraction and stablecoin investing

04:00 Flashback to the May 2024 ASTS run

06:00 The oddly quiet Paris conference recap

08:38 Founder engagement: Abel Avellan's couch story

11:48 Bluebird 11 station-keeping theory and TLE data

14:10 Trusting management vs the Rocket Lab correlation

17:50 The one bar problem and gray area coverage

20:56 Viasat's Equatus JV and prime contractor risk

22:44 Sovereignty and Europe's defense rearmament

24:51 Michael Pollock's Paris comments on Space Force

28:44 Batch 3 satellites and launch tracking

30:56 The poker analogy: launch capacity and cargo backlog

31:47 AI data centers in space

35:28 FCC approvals and spectrum filings

36:02 Rocket Lab ATM and options expiry theory

38:53 SpaceX and Starlink subscriber growth forecast

41:02 New Glenn's return and the launch capacity race

43:40 Closing thoughts

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

#astspacemobile

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) rallies post-Fed as 48 Bluebirds sit in production. Anpanman breaks down the real story behind the delays.

In this episode, Anpanman discusses the Fed's quarter-point rate hike and how the resulting relief rally lifted AST SpaceMobile and the entire high-beta space sector, including Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and Redwire. He explains why negative sentiment toward ASTS stock has spiked in recent weeks and why that negativity mirrors what's happening across nearly every momentum name in the market.

Anpanman walks through AST SpaceMobile's production update, including 48 Bluebird satellites currently in the manufacturing pipeline, new composite rings delivered by Antonov, and expanding shipping capacity. He compares the company's execution challenges to SpaceX's own historically difficult path with Falcon 9 and Starship, and explains why satellite shipments have been delayed due to rigorous testing.

The episode also covers direct-to-cell momentum in Europe, with Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone, and Telefonica all voicing support for a European satellite solution tied to AST SpaceMobile. Anpanman details new spectrum testing requests from the Space Development Agency and Space Force, addresses accusations that management misled investors, and offers advice on how retail investors can actually reach out to company IR.

00:00 Introduction

00:36 Fed Rate Hike and Market Reaction

01:48 Sentiment Turns Negative on High Beta Stocks

03:34 Execution vs Promotional Companies

04:55 Lessons from SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship

06:38 The Origin Story of Direct-to-Device

08:14 Production Line Criticism Debunked

09:33 PR Backlash: Damned If You Do

12:47 Sector-Wide Relief Rally, Not Just AST

15:56 Anonymous Accounts and Short Seller Tactics

17:07 Social Media's Effect on Investor Psychology

19:33 Why the Satellite Shipment Is Delayed

21:06 SpaceX Crew Launch Scheduling Conflicts

23:03 Reviewing AST's Actual PR Track Record

24:41 Addressing Claims That Management Lied

25:43 Blue Origin's New Glenn Setback Impact

29:39 Signs of Execution: Rings, Hiring, Regulatory Wins

33:09 How to Actually Get Access to Management

34:59 Closing Thoughts

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

#astspacemobile #DirectToCell #DeutscheTelekomSTILL NO SHIPMENT?