AST SpaceMobile Podcast

AST SpaceMobile's $1.3B Firefly rocket deal explained ahead of Monday earnings and Thursday's NYC event. ASTS stock risks and upside.

In this episode, Anpanman digs into AST SpaceMobile's surprise move to partner with Firefly on a purpose-built launch vehicle. He explains why he sees it as an option and a hedge rather than a pivot, and compares it to the Ligado L-band spectrum deal that shocked investors at first but made sense later. He also covers how the launch market has shifted with orbital data centers, fixed wireless, sovereign networks, and direct-to-cell demand all competing for rocket capacity.

Anpanman breaks down how the near-term satellite deployment plan was de-risked, including master launch agreements covering over 100 satellites and the DPAS rating that could move military-related launches up the queue. He walks through the deal terms, including the $1.3 billion foundation, the $250 million of engineering support, the engine supply, the possible 2028 first launch, and why he thinks mid-2029 is more realistic. He also addresses the Rocket Lab investor backlash.

Finally, Anpanman answers viewer questions on funding and dilution for ASTS stock, covering J-LEO, the XM financing, the Ligado SPV, and possible Office of Strategic Capital support. He also touches on Elon Musk's comments about buying Verizon and whether he has changed his own position size.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Earnings Monday and Thursday NYC event

01:22 Has the ASTS thesis changed?

02:04 Ligado spectrum lesson as a precedent

05:34 Is AST SpaceMobile becoming a launch company?

06:44 Launch-agnostic strategy continues

07:24 How the launch industry has changed

08:28 Orbital data centers, sovereigns and direct-to-device demand

14:18 De-risking launch with MLAs

16:26 The DPAS rating explained

18:57 Firefly deal terms

19:50 Eclipse design and three stages

24:16 First launch timeline and reusability

28:08 Rocket Lab investor backlash

34:47 Upside and the big commercial cargo customers

36:29 Q&A: funding and dilution

40:03 Musk, Verizon and antitrust

40:51 Position sizing and rocket risk

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#astspacemobile #Firefly #ASTS

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) is building a 20-ton Blacklift rocket with Firefly to launch Bluebirds. Big NYC event Nov 12.

Anpanman breaks down the surprise AST SpaceMobile and Firefly deal to build a dedicated 20-ton rocket called Blacklift, designed to deliver up to 5 Bluebird satellites to LEO. He covers how the joint development works, including licensing Firefly's engine technology after 175 Miranda engine hot fire tests, and why a first flight at the end of 2028 will probably slip to 2029.

Anpanman also explains why assured launch access matters for the direct-to-cell satellite buildout and for ASTS stock. He covers the 100 satellites secured for launch over 2027 and 2028, the new DPAS rating, the Space Force award, and the push by governments and MNOs for alternatives to Starlink. He weighs the build vs buy economics, the funding and dilution risks, and the extra 400,000 square feet approved in Midland.

The second half is live Q&A on reusability, launch pad location, why not buy Firefly or Vulcan, and whether the company can execute. Anpanman also flags the key dates ahead: earnings, the Firefly call, and the New York press event on November 12.

00:00 Introduction

00:38 AST's 20-ton rocket and the Firefly deal

01:46 Joint development and engine licensing

03:29 Why it's called Blacklift

04:38 Why assured launch access matters

07:23 100 satellites secured and DPAS rating

08:54 Space Force award and Starlink alternatives

12:05 Orbital compute and launch demand

13:45 Risks and how it gets funded

15:45 Build vs buy and launch cost savings

19:05 Competing constellations and global demand

21:57 Timing with the SDA award

22:47 Earnings, Firefly call and Nov 12 NYC event

23:56 Q&A: outsourcing, financing and reusability

26:51 Q&A: execution trust and AI data center capex

29:33 Q&A: launch pad, buying Firefly and Vulcan

37:15 Q&A: Starlink kill switch concerns

38:41 Q&A: dilution and announcement timing

40:44 Closing thoughts

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#astspacemobile #Blacklift #Firefly

AST SpaceMobile's exec reveals the first seamless satellite-to-tower handover, 60+ MNO deals and 3B reach. What it means for ASTS.

Anpanman brings you a keynote and panel from a Nokia-hosted event, with Luis of AST SpaceMobile explaining why the company builds the largest LEO satellites ever and keeps mobile operators in control. He covers the 60+ MNO partnerships with access to 3 billion subscribers, roughly 1 million square feet of manufacturing space, about 60 gateways in various stages of build-out, and why spectrum is now "more like diamond." For ASTS stock watchers, this is a detailed look at the direct-to-cell strategy behind the satellite buildout.

The talk then turns to the Nokia AirScale partnership, AI for networks and networks for AI, and the milestone Luis calls unprecedented: a native handover from the terrestrial network to the satellite and back without dropping or losing quality. He also cites GSMA research that 60% of consumers would pay more for universal connectivity and 47% would switch operators, with a 5% to 20% price uplift.

In the panel that follows, Skylo, Qualcomm, Anritsu, MDA Space and Airbus debate seamless TN and NTN integration, whether AI will replace standards, satellite SLAs, and whether satellite economics can ever match terrestrial. The episode closes with audience questions on AI-driven beam management and why 3GPP has zero terrestrial bands standardized for NR NTN.

00:00 Introduction

00:59 Luis's background and the Nokia satellite mockup

01:51 AST progress: manufacturing, MNOs, spectrum, gateways

04:15 Technology and strategic investors

05:07 How LEO satellites are disrupting the market

06:30 Why AST puts MNOs in control

08:07 Large satellites and low-band spectrum

09:24 Nokia AirScale partnership

10:59 AI for networks and networks for AI

13:43 NTN, 3GPP and the path to 6G

15:41 First seamless satellite-terrestrial handover

17:57 Can operators make money from satellite?

20:24 Call for MNO collaboration

22:16 Panel kickoff and introductions

30:35 Challenges of seamless TN and NTN integration

41:26 Will AI replace standards?

45:30 Can satellites guarantee an SLA?

51:23 Satellite economics versus terrestrial

1:01:54 Audience Q&A on AI beams and 3GPP spectrum

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#astspacemobile #Nokia #DirectToCell

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dipped to $35 as Democrats swept the midterms. Anpanman explains why he bought and sees it as bullish.

Anpanman discusses why the Democratic sweep of the House and Senate could be a major tailwind for AST SpaceMobile and ASTS stock. He walks through how the Musk-aligned Republican political environment fed the "lazy trade" of going long SpaceX and short the MNOs and ASTS. He also covers AST's heavy retail ownership and how institutions view the stock compared with names like Rocket Lab and its Iridium acquisition.

The conversation then turns to the new scrutiny on SpaceX and Elon Musk. Anpanman covers the Starlink Ukraine inquiry, the EchoStar deal, a possible Boost Mobile transaction, a SpaceX-Tesla merger, and the FCC balance under Brendan Carr. He also covers the Texas flip, Abel's story out of Midland, and SpaceX data center growth.

Finally, Anpanman explains why the US military and allies want alternatives to Starlink, citing Golden Dome, MDA Shield, the proliferated warfighter program and FirstNet. He covers the European spectrum allocation in May 2027 and how a satellite direct-to-cell player like AST SpaceMobile fits in. He closes with how hedge funds may reposition and why he sees ASTS as the pure play on these themes.

00:00 Introduction

00:12 ASTS Dips to $35 After the Midterms

01:22 Why a Democratic Sweep Is Bullish

02:02 Trump, Musk and the ASTS Narrative

03:27 SpaceX Enters Mobile

04:08 Retail Ownership and Institutional Views

05:24 The Lazy Short Trade

07:18 Midterm Blowout: Iran, Oil and Inflation

09:49 Texas Flips Blue and Abel's Story

11:25 Musk Loses Political Cover

12:46 Starlink Ukraine and EchoStar Scrutiny

14:34 Boost Mobile and Falcon 9 Pause Speculation

16:34 Data Centers and SpaceX Valuation

18:02 Tesla Merger and FCC Balance

20:45 Boost Deal and a SpaceX Breakup

25:46 Military Wants Alternatives to SpaceX

28:32 Spectrum Allocation in Europe

31:33 Hedge Fund Repositioning

34:26 Rocket Lab, Firefly and Launch Alternatives

37:03 Why ASTS Is the Pure Play

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #SpaceX

AST SpaceMobile and AT&T just completed a seamless satellite handoff on Oct 21. ASTS stock fell 6.8% anyway - here's the breakdown.

In this quick live reaction, Anpanman breaks down the AT&T and AST SpaceMobile announcement of a successful handoff between a terrestrial tower and a satellite. The test was a voice call over LTE, and the handoff happened in milliseconds instead of seconds. Anpanman explains why this matters for direct-to-cell service, how Ericsson and Nokia fit in, and why AST's 3,900 patent-pending claims and bent pipe architecture make a satellite behave like a tower in space. He also contrasts this with Starlink's separate roaming approach, which today can't do voice over the satellite.

Anpanman also covers the ASTS stock selloff in a risk-off market, with the election adding uncertainty. He then moves to launch and production updates, including Falcon 9's expected return to service on November 29 and composite rings delivered to Midland.

Finally, Anpanman digs into the Washington Post report that SpaceX may be talking to EchoStar about Boost Mobile. He covers the roughly 7 million subscribers, the abandoned tower leases, the AT&T and T-Mobile MVNO change-of-control issues, and SpaceX's widening credit default swaps.

00:00 Introduction

00:24 Risk-off market and ASTS stock selloff

00:49 Election uncertainty and the market

01:37 AT&T and AST seamless handoff announced

02:26 Ericsson and Nokia roles

03:31 Why seamless voice handoffs are so hard

04:38 3,900 patent claims and the secret sauce

05:41 Bent pipe architecture and MNO integration

06:19 How Starlink compares on voice

09:08 Test details: Granite Falls, October 21

10:48 Block 1 and Block 2 satellites

11:31 AT&T tweet and 98 Mbps peak speeds

12:24 Falcon 9 return to service and launch timing

12:51 Composite rings and production update

13:27 SpaceX, EchoStar and Boost Mobile report

17:06 What SpaceX would get: 7M customers and MVNO issues

20:03 Why the story may have leaked

23:16 SpaceX credit default swaps and data centers

27:27 AT&T tweet and wrap-up

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#astspacemobile #ATT #BoostMobile

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock at $40: Kook breaks down the launch priority code theory, the Falcon 9 pause, and Viasat's spectrum fight.

Kook opens by re-underwriting the ASTS stock thesis after a brutal week, using AI to dig through filings. He focuses on AST SpaceMobile's spectrum position, including the 2 GHz auctions in Europe, the new Chilean award, and a loose theory that European MNOs could bid for Viasat's L-band through a JV. He also argues that Viasat's spectrum value may be shrinking.

The main thread is launch. Kook explains why he thinks AST SpaceMobile may receive government priority codes under DPAS, pointing to radar work, SDA-related STAs, hiring data, and the Golden Dome sensing layer. He covers the SpaceX pause, open Falcon 9 capacity, the Cygnus NG-25 launch on November 29 as a possible tell, and the ULA and Blue Origin launch outlook.

He also covers production and the wider direct-to-cell race. Topics include employee retention in Midland, 40 composite rings on site, Rakuten and other satellite partners, Starlink and a potential SpaceX MVNO, antitrust risk, and the status of the Ligado FCC docket ahead of earnings on November 9.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 2 GHz Auctions and European MNOs

02:19 Chile Spectrum Win

04:09 Launch Concerns and SpaceX Capacity

06:21 Priority Code Theory (DPAS)

10:57 Viasat, Tim Ferrar and Abel in Spain

13:06 SpaceX Pause and Falcon 9 Manifest

15:09 Talent Flow and Retention

16:52 Composite Rings and Production

19:44 STA Filings and Golden Dome Radar

21:03 Rakuten and Global Spectrum Portfolio

22:35 Cygnus NG-25 Test and Small Markets

26:18 Google Space Data Center

28:27 Big Tech Spectrum Ambitions

33:03 Starlink Economics and MVNO Questions

37:46 SpaceX Antitrust Risk

40:23 Cost of Building an MNO

42:15 ULA, Blue Origin and Launch Market

45:07 Ligado FCC Docket

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #Viasat

AST SpaceMobile earnings are Nov 9, and SpaceX just paused Falcon 9 for 6 weeks. What it means for ASTS and the Bluebird launch rush.

Anpanman discusses the latest AST SpaceMobile news ahead of earnings. He starts with a hedge fund factor analysis that puts ASTS stock down 8% once momentum, growth and low quality earnings factors are stripped out. Then he covers the reported six-week SpaceX Falcon 9 pause tied to the first Starship launch from Florida. He explains why Bluebirds 14 and 16 sit at Astrotech, how year-end launches could get backloaded, and what the Amazon Vulcan launch on November 13 and a possible Blue Origin New Glenn return to flight in December mean for the satellite schedule.

Next, Anpanman breaks down SpaceX's filing to use the Grain Management 800 MHz spectrum for supplemental coverage from space. The filing signals SpaceX wants low band direct-to-cell service globally, which puts MNOs on notice. He also digs into Tim Farrar's rumor that Amazon will buy Viasat, why Viasat's L-band spectrum is worth less without Ligado, and why Amazon could be a bigger threat to MNOs than Starlink. He touches on Mike Sievert stepping down from T-Mobile.

Finally, he walks through tomorrow's FCC meeting on freeing up 482 MHz of spectrum for direct-to-cell use and why non-contiguous bands could be a big positive for AST SpaceMobile. He closes with audience questions on a T-Mobile agreement, New Glenn launch risk, the Ligado approval and the midterm political landscape.

00:00 Introduction

00:20 ASTS stock performance and factor analysis

02:13 SpaceX Falcon 9 six-week pause

03:36 Why Bluebirds went to Astrotech

07:06 Shipping boxes and launch cadence

09:14 Year-end launch backlog

10:37 Vulcan Nov 13 and New Glenn return to flight

13:35 Antonov and composite rings for Midland

15:24 SpaceX Grain Management spectrum filing

24:06 Amazon-Viasat acquisition rumor

37:05 Why MNOs may fear Amazon

44:16 Mike Sievert steps down from T-Mobile

46:45 Would Amazon buy AST SpaceMobile?

50:47 FCC meeting and spectrum agenda

58:26 Q&A: T-Mobile, New Glenn risk, Ligado

1:03:01 Midterms and political risk

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#astspacemobile #SpaceX #Viasat

ASTS stock crashed from $130 to $40. Kook breaks down AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX's spectrum move, and the launch clues that keep him locked in.

Kook opens with a brutal week for ASTS stock, which fell about 70% as SpaceX's apparent purchase of the Grain spectrum shocked generalist investors. He explains the "terror of prices," what he got wrong, why he stays focused on terminal value, and why AST SpaceMobile doesn't owe anyone a flood of press releases while launch contracts, J-LEO, and Golden Dome play out.

From there Kook lays out his launch "murder mystery" theory covering Amazon's unused Falcon 9 slots, ULA capacity, and New Glenn's return. He also covers the unusual FCC filings and low-power Grain spectrum testing, the possible NSSL angle, J-LEO and Mitsubishi H3, and new Brazil MNO deals.

He also looks at the European MNO consortium of Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, and Vodafone bidding for MSS spectrum, and what that means for direct-to-cell competition with Starlink. The episode closes with new AST SpaceMobile hires from Boingo and Google, the e-band filing, and why Kook expects a launch date for the next satellite batch soon.

00:00 Introduction

01:29 SpaceX, the Grain spectrum, and the shock

03:55 Secular winners and holding through crashes

05:54 Hubris, arrogance, and lessons learned

08:25 Capitulation, social proof, and market panic

10:55 Snapback potential and the macro backdrop

12:24 Expert calls on T-Mobile and Starlink

14:46 Why substantive news beats press releases

19:12 The launcher murder mystery: Amazon, ULA, Falcon 9

21:53 Grain spectrum testing and NSSL theories

25:29 J-LEO and Mitsubishi H3

28:15 Brazil MNO deals

29:32 Price vs value and Blue Origin's return

30:56 Strategic value and buyout thinking

34:40 European MNO consortium bids for MSS spectrum

38:48 Viasat, Iridium, and the Ligado docket

41:22 Elon, Europe, and building a mobile network

51:03 New hires: Boingo CTO and ex-Google commercial chief

56:02 New Glenn, bandwidth demand, and Elon's call

59:06 Next week: e-band and a launch date

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #SpaceX #DirectToCell #Starlink #SpaceStocks #Spectrum

Starlink eyes 80,000 cell sites and MNOs sell off. Anpanman breaks down what it means for AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and direct-to-cell.

In this episode, Anpanman reacts to news that SpaceX is exploring a terrestrial network and talking to Crown Castle about roughly 80,000 cell sites. He explains why carriers and the ASTS stock sold off, and why he argues the news makes AST SpaceMobile more strategically important as the satellite counter to Starlink. He also covers spectrum, including C-band and the lack of low band, and why satellite coverage is becoming table stakes for every MNO.

Anpanman then walks through the international picture: the European joint venture of Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone, a possible push for S-band spectrum, and three regional Brazilian operators with 700 MHz commercial agreements. He also covers Claro, Tim and Vivo, the Rakuten visit to Midland, the J-LEO joint venture, and a Scotiabank upgrade of ASTS.

Finally, Anpanman looks at Amazon and Globalstar, T-Mobile's Starlink partnership as a business case study, a possible Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile merger, and why SpaceX buying a carrier would face FCC and DOJ hurdles.

00:00 Introduction

00:16 MNOs sell off on SpaceX terrestrial network news

01:04 Crown Castle talks and 80,000 cell sites

01:34 Spectrum, C-band and cable's WiFi failure

03:27 Why ASTS is the strategic counter

04:51 Satellite becomes table stakes for MNOs

08:12 Europe and Brazil opportunity

09:27 Risk-off market and record short interest

10:45 SpaceX economics of a terrestrial buildout

14:13 Rakuten tweet controversy

14:50 Scotiabank upgrades ASTS

18:04 Rakuten visit to Midland and J-LEO

22:43 European joint venture and S-band spectrum

24:48 Brazil regional operators and 700 MHz

27:30 Claro, Tim and Vivo

29:26 Amazon and Globalstar

31:15 T-Mobile's Starlink own goal

33:22 Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile merger

36:54 Could SpaceX buy an MNO?

40:03 Closing thoughts and conviction

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#astspacemobile #Starlink #Rakuten #ASTS #DirectToCell #SpaceStocks

AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock sells off with the whole space sector. Anpanman breaks down the macro, launch timing, and Starlink news.

Anpanman discusses a brutal day for ASTS stock, as rates, oil at a 12-year high, Iran headlines, and a violent rotation out of momentum and growth hit every space name. He explains why Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and the neo-clouds are all down together, and why the drawdown since May looks macro-driven rather than company-specific. He also covers SpaceX earnings, neo-cloud CapEx risk, and the SpaceX lockup expiry.

The episode then turns to investor psychology and risk management. Anpanman walks through what would have happened if you sold AST SpaceMobile at $130, why most people would have bought back lower, and the 50-70% drawdown test every holder should run. He also recaps the European MNO press releases, the commitment to initial direct-to-cell service in 5 markets by year end, and the 3 satellites waiting at Cape Canaveral for a launch date.

Finally, Anpanman looks at the launch landscape, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA returning to service, and what that means for the satellite buildout. He closes with the Wall Street Journal report that Trump called Musk to lift Starlink limits in Ukraine, why that strengthens the case for sovereign and diversified suppliers, and his own lessons from 2008 on protecting your mental health.

00:00 Introduction

00:08 Rates, Treasuries and AI credit crowding

01:38 Iran headlines and oil at a 12-year high

02:53 Factor moves: momentum vs value

03:28 SpaceX earnings, neo-cloud risk and lockup

06:19 The drawdown since May

08:35 Friend asks if something bad is coming

10:14 European MNO press releases and 5-market service

12:09 Planet Labs down 75%

16:56 What if you had sold the top in May?

21:12 The 50-70% drawdown test

25:39 Space names down today

26:23 Weathering the storm: hold, buy or sell

29:37 Launch date watch: 3 satellites at the Cape

32:11 SpaceX anti-competitive risk and regulators

34:47 Blue Origin and ULA return to service

39:38 Live Q&A

48:45 Trump, Musk and Starlink in Ukraine

56:06 Lessons from 2008

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #SpaceStocks #DirectToCell #Starlink #SpaceX