AST SpaceMobile Podcast

AST SpaceMobile just got confirmed for space-based sensing and targeting - Kook breaks down the SDA filing and a $68 vs $210 price target debate.

Kook opens with the weekend chaos around a Spanish analyst named Amerito whose bearish $210-to-$68 DCF on $ASTS stock sparked a firestorm, and walks through why discount rate assumptions and duration risk make academic finance models misleading for a high-growth satellite name like AST SpaceMobile.

The episode digs into the Porsche versus Toyota analogy for premium direct-to-cell pricing, Ron Baron's simple big-picture investing style, and why taking first-mover advantage in satellite connectivity locks out future competitors. Kook also covers fresh developments in Japan with Rakuten and JLEO, Europe's Iris2 and Satellite Connect Europe efforts, and an SDA filing revealing AST SpaceMobile is being tested for space-based sensing and targeting.

Finally, Kook explains why Starlink may be quietly abandoning direct-to-cell in favor of AI data centers in space, breaks down T-Mobile blocking Starlink's MVNO ambitions, discusses spectrum scarcity and FCC moves to unlock more bandwidth, and gives an update on satellite production, BW11 tracking, and the new Amazon-AT&T Leo satellite partnership.

00:00 Introduction and AI regulatory capture chaos

00:41 Spain reacts to Amerito's bearish $ASTS analysis

07:03 Breaking down the DCF and discount rate debate

10:09 Duration risk and why academic finance fails on $ASTS

11:07 The Porsche vs Toyota analogy for $ASTS pricing

14:44 Segmented markets and emergency communications

19:00 Learning from Ron Baron's simple investing style

21:06 Why taking first mover advantage locks out competitors

25:34 Japan, Rakuten, and military use cases

26:41 Europe's Iris2 and Satellite Connect Europe

28:53 Scott Wisniewski's tens of billions revenue comment

31:48 T-Mobile blocks Starlink MVNO plans

32:19 Hybrid network architecture explained

34:55 Why Starlink may be abandoning direct-to-cell

39:09 SDA filing reveals space-based sensing and targeting

46:37 Oversubscription economics and spectrum scarcity

54:55 Satellite production updates and BW11 tracking

1:01:35 Amazon and AT&T Leo satellite partnership

1:02:40 Closing thoughts on investing through volatility

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#astspacemobile #Starlink #DirectToCell

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) update: Japan files a 136-satellite constellation at the ITU as Europe's big carriers move to counter Starlink.

In this episode, Anpanman breaks down why sovereignty has become the defining theme for AST SpaceMobile and the broader satellite sector. He walks through Japan's MIC filing with the ITU for a 136-satellite 'J-Bluebird' constellation on behalf of the Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile joint venture, filed on September 4th, and explains how it ties into Japan's plans for a golden dome-style, multi-layer defense and communications network.

Anpanman also covers a Bloomberg report that Europe's top four carriers - Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Telefonica - are in talks to form a joint venture using AST SpaceMobile to counter Starlink for 2GHz MSS spectrum, alongside the UK's new $7.8 billion sovereign space initiative. He highlights Berenberg's initiation of coverage on ASTS stock, including a scenario where a T-Mobile deal could add $1.1 billion in EBITDA by 2030 and roughly $29 per share of value.

Rounding out the episode, Anpanman discusses board member Adriana Cesneros's open-market stock purchase, the status of Bluebird satellites 14 through 16 and the timing of the next launch, recent military contract awards, and shares his perspective on tuning out noise and trolls while holding conviction through drawdowns.

00:00 Introduction and Labor Day catch-up

01:38 Sovereignty becomes the episode's key theme

02:31 Japan's MIC files 136-satellite constellation at ITU

05:01 Japan's golden dome-style defense network

05:54 How Starlink's Ukraine on/off switch changed everything

07:36 The risk of relying on one vertically integrated company

08:56 Europe's big four MNOs and SatCo Europe

09:26 Deutsche Telekom joins as an AST testing partner

12:38 UK unveils $7.8 billion sovereign space initiative

15:36 Why Starlink and Amazon's architecture clashes with sovereignty

17:52 Inside the J-LEO federated constellation economics

21:34 Why Starlink Mobile was the best thing to happen to AST

27:26 Bloomberg: Europe's big four in talks on anti-Starlink venture

35:56 Berenberg initiates coverage and models $29/share T-Mobile upside

41:26 Board member Adriana Cesneros buys AST stock

44:16 Launch update: no September launch, October targeted

45:25 Upcoming MNO conference appearances this week

46:43 On trolls, noise, and holding conviction through drawdowns

1:03:49 Closing thoughts: direct-to-device becomes a necessity

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#astspacemobile #Sovereignty #Starlink

AST SpaceMobile's BW11 satellite remains undeployed - Kook explains why, plus Adriana Cisneros just sent a bullish signal on $ASTS stock.

Kook dives into the mystery of Bluebird 11 not yet deploying, citing heightened solar activity and Labor Day staffing levels as the likely explanations, while noting the company's FCC filing confirming the satellite is otherwise nominal. He also highlights AST SpaceMobile director Adriana Cisneros buying ASTS stock as a confidence signal following August's momentum-driven selloff across the space sector.

Kook explores AST SpaceMobile as the satellite industry's true hyperscaler, pointing out the company launched satellite capacity equal to four Iridium constellations in just the past few months. He contrasts this with Viasat's talent exodus and dissects Starlink's direct-to-cell service as a repurposed IOT product compared to ASTS's true indoor connectivity capability.

The episode also covers hiring signals pointing to a potential Anduril radar partnership, Vodafone's enterprise use cases for satellite connectivity, and a Berenberg research note modeling how T-Mobile inclusion could boost 2030 EBITDA estimates. Kook closes by firing back at David Einhorn's dismissive SpaceX bubble comments and reviewing the latest updates on the European JV and Japan.

00:00 Introduction & Labor Day Catch-Up

00:11 BW11 Deployment Mystery Explained

04:02 FCC Letter Confirms Nominal Status

04:18 Adriana Cisneros Buys ASTS Stock

06:42 Viasat Talent Exodus vs ASTS Hiring

09:44 ASTS as Space's Hyperscaler

11:42 Starlink Direct-to-Cell "Red Herring"

12:43 Anduril Radar Hiring Speculation

14:36 The iTunes Phenomenon and Global MNOs

16:16 J Leo, Europe & All-Time High Chart

20:45 David Einhorn's SpaceX Bubble Take

25:41 Gavin Baker on Space Data Centers

29:30 Vodafone Enterprise Use Cases

30:34 Barons Coverage & Berenberg Report

33:01 Momentum Unwind Across Space Stocks

35:10 Dedicated Blackbird Shell for Radar

36:18 2degree, Rakuten & US Mobile Updates

38:37 Closing Thoughts

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#astspacemobile #Hyperscaler #DirectToCell

Bahrenberg initiates AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) coverage with a Buy rating and $92 price target - here's the full thesis.

In this episode, Bahrenberg walks through the full initiation report on AST SpaceMobile, breaking down why ASTS stock is positioned as the only proven space-based direct-to-cell broadband provider. The discussion covers ASTS's 60+ MNO partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers, its spectrum moat of 45 MHz of L-band and 60 MHz of S-band, and a revenue model projected to scale from $655 million in 2027 to $4.5 billion by 2030.

Bahrenberg also details the long list of near-term catalysts: Japan's J-Leo satellite project and its up to $1 billion in government funding, the accelerating satellite launch cadence toward 45+ Bluebirds, new defense contracts under the Golden Dome and Halo Europa programs, the upcoming FCC beta service launch, and the pending Grain management spectrum decision.

Finally, the episode explores the competitive landscape with Starlink, the potential for a T-Mobile partnership through the AT&T-Verizon direct-to-device JV, and Bahrenberg's full valuation framework - including a $242 blue sky scenario and a $23 bear case with a possible spectrum-based valuation floor.

00:00 Introduction

00:36 Bahrenberg Initiates Coverage on $ASTS

01:41 60+ MNO Partnerships Explained

02:17 The Spectrum Moat

03:05 Revenue and Profitability Inflection

03:59 A Story Rich With Catalysts

04:49 Key Catalysts Overview

04:57 Japan's J-Leo Project

07:21 Satellite Launches and Cadence

08:41 Defense Awards and Golden Dome

10:17 Beta Service Begins

12:48 Grain Management Spectrum Opportunity

14:44 FCC Approval of Ligado

15:27 T-Mobile: The Potential Third Chair

19:09 Starlink: A $10 Billion Foe

21:38 Grain Management as an On-Ramp

22:34 Chris Sambar's Move to T-Mobile

27:05 Valuation Framework

28:46 Blue Sky and Bear Case Scenarios

30:49 Closing Notes

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#astspacemobile #ASTS #Starlink

AST SpaceMobile hits satellite 48 in production as Bluebird 14 completes - Kook breaks down why $ASTS still has 10-20X upside despite the selloff.

In this week's episode, Kook tackles the brutal sentiment across satellite and space stocks, comparing AST SpaceMobile's chart to Rocket Lab, Redwire, and Planet Labs to argue this is dispersion within a sector selloff, not a bubble bursting. He pushes back on technical analysis-driven bearishness and explains why he remains focused on fundamentals over short-term chart patterns.

Kook covers the latest AST SpaceMobile production update, with Bluebird 14 complete and satellites 15 and 16 nearing completion, plus work-in-progress now extending through satellite 48. He highlights the 2degrees New Zealand mobile test as further third-party validation of direct-to-cell technology, and explains the hybrid network architecture that has MNOs excited about closing coverage gaps.

The episode also digs into the Grain Management spectrum opportunity flagged by Deutsche Bank, valuation comparisons against AT&T, and the emerging data centers in space narrative following Star Cloud's $250 million raise and ASTS's own compute capability plans for satellites 47 and 48. Kook wraps with launch capacity updates on SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Japan's H3 rocket, plus a theory on the $100 billion Situational Awareness unwind driving the recent collapse in implied volatility.

00:00 Introduction - market sentiment hits rock bottom

02:19 Comparing $ASTS to Rocket Lab's chart pattern

06:51 Bluebird satellite production update

09:00 Why Kook ignores near-term guidance misses

13:05 Charts vs fundamentals - looking through the windshield

18:32 2degrees New Zealand direct-to-cell demo

22:00 Hybrid network architecture and coverage gaps

24:31 Grain Management spectrum and Deutsche Bank analysis

26:24 Valuing $ASTS against AT&T and Clear Street forecasts

30:02 Gwen Shotwell's Starlink car story

31:18 Satellite WIP and production pipeline

32:11 Launch capacity - Japan, Blue Origin, SpaceX

35:47 Data centers in space and the Star Cloud raise

44:36 Innovator's dilemma and satellite market disruption

45:23 SpaceX small cell plan and Earl Lum's critique

47:43 Situational Awareness unwind and volatility

55:56 Closing thoughts - stay alive, stay grateful

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#astspacemobile #DirectToCell #DataCentersInSpace

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) craters to $58 as Fed rate fears crush high-beta stocks.

New Antonov delivery hints at a Q4 production surge.

Anpanman breaks down a brutal day for the market after Fed's Worsh turned hawkish, sparking September rate hike fears that hammered high-beta names across the board. AST SpaceMobile stock got caught in the sector-wide selloff alongside crypto, quantum, and neo-cloud names, even as SpaceX held up better thanks to its growing neo-cloud leasing revenue with Google and Anthropic.

On the fundamentals side, Anpanman digs into why Bluebird 14, 15, and 16 got delayed, tying it to testing issues the team likely caught and fixed before shipment. He covers the latest satellite due diligence, including new boxes spotted at the Odessa facility and an Antonov delivery carrying 7-8 composite rings from India, both signs that AST SpaceMobile is pushing to ramp production and launch cadence into the end of the year now that SpaceX's Falcon 9 manifest has freed up.

The episode also covers AST's famously conservative PR approach, the $125 million in military awards disclosed quietly on the Q2 call, the $1.3 billion contracted backlog, and speculation on a fourth US MNO tied to the AT&T-Verizon-T-Mobile joint venture. Anpanman closes with a heartfelt warning about margin and options trading in volatile markets, plus a reminder to protect your mental health through the drawdown.

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Fed's Worsh Goes Hawkish - Rate Hike Fears

02:38 True Inflation Data vs Fed Narrative

04:03 Market Selloff: High-Beta Sectors Get Crushed

06:16 Venezuela Oil and Strait of Hormuz Update

07:35 Why AST SpaceMobile Isn't the Reason Space Stocks Are Down

10:46 SpaceX's Resilience: Neo-Cloud Revenue Breakdown

17:50 Bluebird 14-16 Delay Explained

21:50 5 Boxes Spotted at Odessa Facility

22:41 AST's Conservative PR Philosophy

25:16 $125M in Military Awards - No PR Needed

31:39 Comparing AST's Fundamentals Today vs 2023

36:41 Antonov Lands With 7-8 Composite Rings

40:39 Falcon 9 Manifest Opens Up for More Launches

53:34 Q&A: Citadel's Heavy Trading Activity

1:01:18 Troll Comment and Company Rebuttal

1:04:16 Margin and Options: A Warning to Investors

1:09:29 Closing Thoughts and Mental Health

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#astspacemobile #SpaceX #FederalReserve

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) news: White House unveils new space policy, SpaceX's MNO strategy backfires, and Grain spectrum drama heats up.

Kook breaks down the White House's new National Space Transportation Policy signed on August 20th, framing it as a generational tailwind for AST SpaceMobile and the broader satellite direct-to-cell industry, drawing parallels to past government-driven capital cycles like the housing boom and China's commodity supercycle.

Kook then unpacks insider commentary from a SpaceX expert call revealing that SpaceX systemically dismissed ASTS as a competitor, and explains how SpaceX's aggressive MNO strategy - including demands for upfront payments - pushed Verizon, AT&T and Vodafone toward ASTS instead, culminating in the new Vodafone Portugal direct-to-cell deal.

Finally, Kook digs into the Grain spectrum saga, Elon Musk's denial of a SpaceX bid, FCC filings hinting at an existing ASTS-T-Mobile testing agreement now tied to the MNO joint venture, the ongoing Ligado FCC docket, and Goldman Sachs' forecast of a $1.8 trillion space economy by 2035.

00:00 Introduction

01:36 White House National Space Transportation Policy

04:00 Historical parallels: China, oil, and tooling phases

07:05 Government thumb on the scale and liquidity flows

10:39 SpaceX expert call: dismissing ASTS as a competitor

13:02 Why MNOs chose ASTS over SpaceX

17:51 T-Mobile and the SpaceX pressure release theory

18:52 Vodafone Portugal deal and stock reaction

20:39 Tooling phase and the AST SpaceMobile vision

23:05 Grain spectrum, Ligado and gray zone coverage

24:23 Elon Musk denies SpaceX spectrum bid

26:10 Game theory of the Grain spectrum sale

32:03 FCC filing clues: ASTS, T-Mobile and AT&T

36:57 Goldman Sachs $1.8 trillion space economy forecast

41:02 Comparing ASTS to Rocket Lab and Redwire

42:23 Crypto tangent: Hyperliquid

43:26 Looking ahead: shipments, Grain, Ligado, JSAT

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#astspacemobile #SpaceX #Ligado

AT&T's COO just gave AST SpaceMobile a massive public endorsement over Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum test. Here's why it matters.

Anpanman breaks down AT&T COO Jeff McElfresh's LinkedIn post congratulating AST SpaceMobile on receiving an FCC Special Temporary Authority to test Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum for satellite direct-to-cell service. Anpanman explains why the timing and wording of the post, published before the Bloomberg article on Grain's spectrum sale, ranks among the most bullish signals for ASTS stock in recent memory.

The discussion covers how Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum sits directly adjacent to AT&T and Verizon's 850MHz holdings, potentially allowing for wider combined channels for satellite-based connectivity. Anpanman ties this to McElfresh's reference to AT&T's satellite joint venture, suggesting the carriers, including T-Mobile which has economic upside tied to Grain's spectrum, may be coordinating closely with AST SpaceMobile rather than competing for the spectrum.

Anpanman also addresses the Bloomberg report claiming Grain is seeking $6 billion for its spectrum and that AST SpaceMobile or SpaceX could be interested buyers, noting John Slinky's denial and speculating on what a first round of interest expected in early September could reveal. The episode wraps with a note that satellite shipping updates for AST SpaceMobile are expected imminently.

00:00 Introduction

00:19 AT&T COO's LinkedIn Post on Grain Management

01:38 Jeff McElfresh's Close Ties to AST SpaceMobile

02:07 Breaking Down the LinkedIn Post

04:05 Grain's 800MHz vs AT&T/Verizon 850MHz Spectrum

04:35 Implications for the Carrier Joint Venture

05:03 Bloomberg's $6 Billion Grain Spectrum Report

06:19 T-Mobile's Economic Stake in Grain Spectrum

06:33 First Round of Interest Due Early September

07:17 Shipping Update and Closing Thoughts

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#astspacemobile #GrainManagement #ATT

Grain Management's $6 billion spectrum sale has AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX both in the mix - here's what's really happening.

Anpanman breaks down the Bloomberg report claiming SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are both circling Grain Management's 800MHz low-band spectrum, a swath valued at roughly $6 billion. He walks through the FCC-mandated timeline Grain must follow after its spectrum swap with T-Mobile, including the November 5th deadline to select a direct-to-cell partner or face building out an expensive terrestrial network instead.

The episode digs into how a deal could actually be structured - a Ligado-style cash-plus-revenue-share licensing agreement with AST versus an outright cash purchase from SpaceX - and why AST is already testing this spectrum with its Block 1 and Block 2 satellites. Anpanman also explains why Elon Musk's public denial doesn't necessarily kill the story, and why bankers leaking details to Bloomberg is a classic tactic to drive up competitive tension.

Finally, the discussion turns to the bigger strategic picture: how AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile could use a joint venture structure to keep this spectrum out of SpaceX's hands, why spectrum screening rules limit which carriers can even bid, and what this all means for AST SpaceMobile's long-term positioning as a satellite-to-cellular player.

00:00 Introduction

00:15 Grain's spectrum swap with T-Mobile explained

01:23 FCC approves the 800MHz spectrum sale

02:24 Why AST is the only low-band satellite player

03:21 The Bloomberg report: SpaceX and AST both bidding

04:31 FCC build-out requirements explained

05:47 Charlie Ergen's failed terrestrial network lesson

08:03 Grain's regulatory timeline breakdown

10:53 Why bankers leak stories like this

13:34 SpaceX's perspective: they can outbid anyone

16:47 The MVNO carrot-and-stick strategy

20:56 What a deal with AST could look like

23:49 Building a real business vs quick cash

26:04 The joint venture and a possible fourth player

29:56 Countering SpaceX with a carrier-backed JV

32:05 Audience Q&A begins

36:39 How the leak actually happened

41:41 Why AST wouldn't play chicken with Grain

46:37 Wrapping up thoughts

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#astspacemobile #GrainManagement #SpaceX

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) stock dipped near $64 before rebounding this week.

Anpanman explains why a T-Mobile deal could be the next major catalyst.

Anpanman opens this space by addressing the recent AST SpaceMobile stock volatility, noting ASTS has essentially chopped between $53 and $73 since June despite continued execution. He compares the muted reaction to Moderna's 177% single-day rally, arguing ASTS has pulled off similarly explosive moves before, like the Verizon-driven run from $5 to $39.

He dives into why he's confident in an eventual T-Mobile agreement, pointing to FCC filings referencing agreements tied to Grain Management spectrum testing on 800 MHz, and explains how the AT&T-Verizon joint venture pools resources without breaking AST's exclusive commercial agreements. He also breaks down why Wall Street analysts like Goldman Sachs give more airtime to Starlink and Amazon's direct-to-cell ambitions than to AST SpaceMobile.

The conversation closes with a broader macro view, covering China Landspace's reusable rocket landing, the strategic importance of earth observation highlighted by the Iran conflict, a possible US government equity stake in space companies, and why Anpanman remains fully bullish on satellite connectivity despite the drawdown.

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Crashing out over stock price swings

01:28 ASTS flat since June despite volatility

03:05 Moderna's 177% rally vs ASTS history

04:38 Why trust in management matters

07:09 T-Mobile talks and Grain Management testing

08:02 AT&T-Verizon joint venture explained

10:33 Wall Street favors Starlink and Amazon

13:17 August lull and staying focused

15:33 Twitter, sentiment, and investor therapy

17:36 Macro rotation: Moderna, Treasury, crypto

19:07 China's rocket landing and the space race

21:26 Iran conflict proves earth observation stakes

23:51 Could the US take equity stakes in space firms

28:44 Why AST isn't hyping PR yet

30:11 T-Mobile and Starlink MVNO risk

31:52 Wrap up

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#astspacemobile #TMobile #DirectToCell