At Large with Toby Manhire

Which way will the special votes go, who cast them, and what does the surprisingly low turnout tell us? Lara Greaves, associate professor of politics at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Toby to work through some of the pressing questions that remain after Saturday’s cliffhanger New Zealand election.

Also on the list: How much impact did the overhang campaigns have, how might the mechanism be removed, and will the politicians have the stomach for it anyway? Could recounts come into play? And did the enrolment changes amount to “voter suppression”?

At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Three decades of parliamentary life is coming to an end for Gerry Brownlee. He joins Toby to revisit a career that has spanned roles including deputy National leader, a range of senior ministerial positions, the Christchurch earthquake recovery and speaker of the house. He also shares his view on the negative campaign National ran in 2026, the overhang and its proponents, and the levels of vitriol in parliament across those years. Plus: working with Bolger, the Christchurch response and those “carping and moaning” remarks, a friendship with Golriz Ghahraman, and his advice for the new intake of MPs.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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The Opportunity Party has made history by breaking into parliament. Three years ago, Qiulae Wong couldn’t have fathomed the idea of leading such a project.
Her team broke out the champagne at their Eden Park celebration on Saturday night. Less than 48 hours later, it’s getting real. With the numbers still not locked and specials still to count, where is her head at, which options are on the table, and has Christopher Luxon called yet?
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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As the campaign hours tick down, a pantheon of the Spinoff’s brightest gather at the roundtable to sum it all up. What were the most memorable moments, the characters, and the words of the campaign? Lyric Waiwiri-Smith, Hayden Donnell, Liam Rātana and Joel MacManus join Toby to revisit the highlights and lowlights, and square up for a Dragons’-Den-esque showdown to convince you which electorate race will be the most exciting on Saturday night. Vote in the comments!

Plus: how are we all doing on the mojo-meter, and our predictions on the number of overhang seats for the next parliament.

At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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The opinion polls are coming thick and fast in the final days of the 2026 NZ election campaign. But when two emerge at the same time delivering markedly different results, should we be sceptical about the story they tell? Murray Campbell of The Research Association of New Zealand joins Toby to discuss the varying methods for collecting opinion data, the processes by which that information is weighted, and what the margin of error can and can’t tell us.
Plus: are the media fairly presenting the results, what are the challenges with electorate polls, including Māori seats, what to make of brands like Infrastructure NZ and the Taxpayers’ Union bankrolling polls, and what is the deal with Curia withdrawing from the pollsters’ association?
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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The Māori electorates are always exciting but this time it’s really edge-of-the-seat. TVNZ Māori affairs correspondent Te Aniwa Hurihanganui joins Toby to walk through the electorate, and explain why Te Tai Tokerau is the pick of the bunch.

Plus: the issues and personalities dominating the debate among Māori, and reflections on the kaupapa Māori debate, which Hurihanganui chaired with Scotty Morrison.

At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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With just over a week to the election, the Labour leader is in with a shot of becoming the first New Zealander since Keith Holyoake to serve non-consecutive terms as prime minister. In the latest of our leader interviews, he defends an approach criticised for its small target and lack of boldness, discusses the impact of overhang and legitimacy, and reveals how embracing the philosophy of stoicism has changed his life.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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In March 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick became co-leader of the Greens – right in the middle of what can only be described as a crisis year for the party. Today, they’ve jumped to around 15% in polling, and Swarbrick is under intense fire from Nicola Willis and the incumbent coalition. So how did they turn it around, do the Greens’ economic prescriptions hold up to scrutiny, and could they really work coherently with Labour?
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Across 12 years as Act leader, David Seymour has taken the party from 0.5% to two terms with a decent sized caucus and 18 months in the role of deputy prime minister. He goes into the 2026 election presenting as the stable leg of the coalition tripod, but how does that square with the scenes sparked by his treaty principles bill and this new focus on “one law for all”?

In the latest of our leader series for At Large, Seymour tells Toby whether he still thinks people who didn’t get enrolled are “dropkicks”, Epsom and the overhang strategy, how he’s got on working with Winston Peters, whom he once called a “clown”, Adam Smith and Pharmac.

At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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At its fourth time of trying, the Opportunity Party is on track for something unprecedented: making it to parliament. And a massive part of that is down to its new leader: Qiulae Wong. What is she doing differently? How does the party, with its powerful board, work? Is it really a party of change? What does she say to the allegations from former members about a “toxic” culture? And has she even met Gareth Morgan? Wong sits down with Toby for the latest At Large leader interview.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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