Opportunity is pitching itself as an alternative kingmaker to Winston Peters and New Zealand First for the 2026 election. But is the kingmaker scenario really that common across 10 MMP elections? Peter Dunne, who has seen the inside of many post-election negotiations, says not. He joins Toby to talk about the role smaller parties play in our elections, the challenge that awaits Opportunity as it hovers around the 5% threshold, and whether major parties at 30% is an aberration or the new normal.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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The Labour Party has registered just 25.9% in a new poll for the Taxpayers’ Union by Curia. That’s lower than their calamitous result in 2023, and lower than National, who themselves fell to a low 29%. Lyric Waiwiri-Smith joins Toby to talk through the pickle that Chris Hipkins finds himself in. Is the small target strategy backfiring, are there bold visions to come, and what can they do to turn it around?
Plus, in How Good, Hayden Donnell is here to share his fascination with the breeding habits of kākāpō, for it is their season…
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Sam Stubbs once looked a lot like a finance bro – he’d made a small fortune at places like Goldman Sachs in London and Hong Kong. But 10 years ago, the gamekeeper turned poacher; Stubbs founded Simplicity, a KiwiSaver non-profit. In the years since it’s spawned a housing developer and now an infrastructure engine, InfraKiwi.
Stubbs is rarely shy about sharing his views on politics, and so he’s paying close attention to the 2026 election, which comes at what he calls a crucial juncture for the country. He sits down with Toby to talk about KiwiSaver, about tax, and about the election campaign. Plus: given his political engagement, could he go one step further and stand for parliament?
Then, in How Good, the Spinoff’s Sophie Albornett goes to hand-pulled noodle heaven at FJ Noodles and Dumplings in Wellington.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Tim Groser was posted to Washington by John Key on the basis that the trade minister turned ambassador would likely be engaging with a US administration led by President Hillary Clinton. Instead, in came Donald Trump.
The former National Party MP joins Toby to revisit those years, Trump’s approach to trade and the international order, and whether New Zealand is right to keep its head largely below the parapet in response.
But wait, there’s more: Tim Groser has more stories to share, including a high-octane day in Moscow as Putin invaded Crimea, his time as a staffer for Rob Muldoon and his role in the night of the snap election, and the truly formative years, on the stage in Wellington with Sam Neill and Paul Holmes.

At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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The annual conference for senior doctors and dentists is about to start but one person is missing: the minister of health has pulled out. In an election year, with health ranked the second top issue for voters, and countless headlines about hospitals and workforces at breaking point, what would members of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists be telling Simeon Brown if he were there? We asked Sarah Dalton, executive director of the union.
Plus, in How Good, Henry Oliver is hooked on Spanish football.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Suddenly politicians of almost every stripe are jumping on board the rooftop solar train. But does the argument for a transformation in our energy mix really stack up? Mike Casey, the celebrated electric cherry orchardist and CEO at Rewiring Aotearoa, joins Toby to talk through the vision, the hurdles ahead, and the lessons he learned from the campaign. Where did it all go right?
Plus: Emma Gleason celebrates the glories of the sporting mullet.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Christopher Luxon sailed into NZ politics six years ago as a champion of localism. Since becoming prime minister, his government has fallen deeply out of love with devolution. Changes including a rates cap and National’s ruling out of a bed tax have especially irked Wayne Brown, mayor of Auckland and the most powerful local politician in New Zealand. He’s gone from denial to anger to … what exactly? Joel MacManus and Hayden Donnell – fresh from interviewing Brown – join Toby to tell the story.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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A new law has been drafted to ban social media for under-16s in New Zealand. Robbie Nicol joins Toby to answer all the big questions. Which platforms meet the definition of “social media”? How will it be enforced? When will the rules kick in? And is it really a government bill? Winston Peters doesn’t think so. We work through some of the objections, from NZ First, Act, the Greens and Labour. (Since this podcast was recorded, Labour has announced it will support the bill on first reading, and urged the government to proceed before the election.)
Plus, in How Good, Alex Casey sings the praises of Lynda Topp on Guy Montgomery’s Spelling Bee.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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After years of malaise, the economy is bouncing back – or it is, at least, in some pockets of the country. Shamubeel Eaqub joins Toby to crunch the numbers that tell us which parts of New Zealand are on the up, which parts are stuck in the doldrums, and why.
Plus: In How Good, Lyric Waiwiri-Smith reports from Election Meltdown, the political comedy show at Circa Theatre in Wellington.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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Whether it’s Woolworths’ little plastic Disney Ooshies or New World’s fancy Smeg knives, supermarket promotions have seeped into the national consciousness, prompting secondary markets and school bans. Alex Casey joins Toby to talk through the allure of these campaigns in a cost of living gloom, and to look back at some of the greatest and strangest supermarket promotions of the 21st century.
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠.

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