Twelve months after the coalition government torpedoed the new ferry plan it had inherited, along with a wild cost blowout, from the previous government, a much heralded announcement finally arrived, and it was not the decision were hoping for. What does the latest instalment in the great ferry saga tell us about the state of the coalition, with David Seymour getting tutted by the new minister for rail Winston Peters? What kind of ferries will we end up with? And will they ro-ro or won't they ro-ro? Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire grab the wheel.

Plus: what does a glut of new polls tells us about the state of the government as we approach Christmas, and did Christopher Luxon fail to adhere to his own big rock philosophy in coalition negotiations?

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After an acclaimed maiden speech, the new National MP for Rangitata faces his biggest test in politics yet: chairing the committee hearing Act’s controversial bill. He sits down with Toby Manhire to discuss the hearings ahead, and his own path to politics.

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Normally on The Fold, we discuss events in the wider media, but today, the subject is us and the future of The Spinoff. Published on site today is an open letter from Duncan, The Spinoff’s editor Madeleine Chapman, and its CEO Amber Easby. It toplines where The Spinoff is right now as a platform – this paradoxical place where our audience is the strongest it has ever been, outside of events like Covid or elections – but that the stagnant ad market, and a hard drop in public funding for our work, has left us in a really tricky situation needing to make a very real call for help.

First, Duncan speaks to our editor, Madeleine Chapman, and our head of audience, Anna Rawhiti-Connell about what we’re asking for and why we’re asking for it. Duncan is then joined by Spinoff CEO Amber Easby to dig into some numbers that show just how radically our revenue picture has changed and explain why our audience is now our last, best shot at retaining the ability to carry on doing what we do.

Please take the time to read the open letter at https://thespinoff.co.nz/sos.

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Today marks the first anniversary of the National-led coalition's swearing in. Ben Thomas, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Toby Manhire parse the prime minister's sit-down interviews to mark the occasion, from the lessons to the communications to the big rocks and boiling of the ocean. How has he performed, is David Seymour right about the "disproportionate" impact Act has achieved and why is Winston Peter talking about being married to the Act leader? Plus: last week witnessed a huge turnout as the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived at parliament. What did that say about the state of Crown-Māori relations? And how about those haka that reverberated around the world, from Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi Clarke and TJ Perenera?

All that, a word on the introduction of the gang patch ban, and we pay tribute to former minister and MP for Auckland Central Nikki Kaye, who has died aged 44.

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As the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti streams through Auckland, Annabelle Lee-Mather, Toby Manhire and Ben Thomas assess its impact, and the state of the Treaty Principles Bill. Plus: the day of apology for abuse in state care: what it did and didn't achieve. And at last the GBL decision desk is ready to make a call on who has won the US presidency (and speculate on what it means for New Zealand).

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Annabelle Lee-Mather reveals why she doesn't care who wins next week in the US, while she, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire all pick who they think will win. Then it's back to Aotearoa and a whistlestop tour of recent headlines: Darleen Tana is bounced out of parliament by peg-nosed Greens, Richard Prebble is appointed to the Waitangi Tribunal, Andrew Bayly's chilled out entertainer routine backfires dramatically, and Mike King says some puzzling stuff about mental health and booze as a "lifejacket".

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The once leader of the National Party these days pays minimum attention to NZ politics and spends as much time as possible watching the American election campaign. Here he talks to Toby Manhire about the state of the race, why Kamala Harris's momentum has ebbed, whether Donald Trump's former chief aide saying he's a fascist will impact things, and what it all means for New Zealand. Oh, and where he'd put his money if forced to bet on a winner.

Todd Muller is host of the podcast What's the Story, Old Glory.

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Twelve months after an election that delivered New Zealand its first three-party coalition, Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire cast their minds and hearts back, recall those heady early days and seek to assess the opening stanza of the Christopher Luxon government. How has he fared with two noisy partners? How are the opposition doing? Which politicians have impressed and surprised? And what are the tripwires and opportunities in the year ahead?

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The capital gains tax debate has lurched back on to the agenda thanks to the boss of our biggest bank and the housing issues faced by Christopher Luxon. Is it a good idea, and can Labour ever avoid getting electorally squashed by trying to push the rock up the slope again? Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas chew it over. Plus: did the government underestimate the strength of feeling in Dunedin over its long promised new hospital? Is the swap of a teacher te reo programme for more maths resource a good idea? And a journey through the crust of the Earth in pursuit of the source of Casey Chatbot Costello's "independent advice" on tobacco taxes.

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The treaty principles bill continues to attract criticisms - from the leaders of churches, from the leaders of political parties including National. In revising it, is David Seymour stumbling, or is it all playing out as he'd wish? Annabelle Lee-Mather, Toby Manhire and Ben Thomas chew it over. Plus: the crime statistic puzzle and the power-blasted mill closures.

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