Ballot to Talk About

This week’s episode looks ahead to the year 2023 in politics and elections, discussing the polls to look out for and the themes we might be talking about as the year rolls on. 2023 has numerous big elections in store in Spain, Argentina, Turkey, New Zealand and Nigeria to name just a few. This week, Sam and Chern preview the electoral calendar, picking out some highlights and previewing some stories that are likely to define the political year region by region. Will 2023 be a year of change as multiple incumbents look vulnerable heading into this cycle? What will be the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War in the neighbouring states of Estonia, Finland and Poland that all have elections this year? And will results in Turkey and Nigeria be as geopolitically significant as initially billed? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

The first episode of 2023 takes a look back at the turbulent US Speaker of the House election and discusses the state of Irish politics as the pre-arranged Taoiseach transition takes place. Kevin McCarthy was finally elected as the next Speaker of the House after nearly 4 days and 15 ballots, making it the longest Speaker election since 1859. How did McCarthy eventually manage to get enough holdouts onside? What does the turbulence say about the present state of the Republican Party? And is this setup and rules package sustainable?

In Ireland, Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martinhave changed jobs, and the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail coalition moves into its second half. Sam and Chern discuss the transfer of responsibility and the state of the Irish parties. Which party is benefitting more from the current governing arrangement? Why did Leo Varadkar opt for a very limited Cabinet reshuffle? What has motivated the growth of Sinn Fein into the poll leader? And can they continue that strength into the next election? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

The last episode of 2022 takes a look back at the recent political turmoil in Peru, and looks back at results from the final Indian state elections of the year. As Peru prepares for its sixth Prime Minister of 2022 and its second President in just over a year, Sam and Chern ask whether the country is governable in the short-term? Can Dina Boluarte turn things around? And what is next for the main players of Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori?

In India, elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat produced contrasting results for the BJP and Congress Party, and lay the ground for a competitive 2023. This week’s episode unpacks the two results and looks back on the year in state elections, discussing which of the Indian parties will be celebrating the most. What was the difference between the Gujarat BJP landslide and the tight election in Himachal Pradesh? With 5-2 to the BJP in state elections this year, are they still very well-positioned for the 2024 Lok Sabha election? And what will the role of the AAP be moving forward? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week’s episode takes a look at the results from the Georgia Senate run-off election and takes a big look back at 2022 in politics. Raphael Warnock has beaten Herschel Walker in Georgia and wins his first full term as Senator. How did Warnock manage to win his second election in two years? Did the shorter campaign make any difference? Will the 51st Democratic seat make a material difference on Senate procedures? And what will the impact of Kyrsten Sinema’s defection have on the party in the Senate?

Sam and Chern also take a look back at 2022 in politics with their annual series of awards. What was the most consequential election of the year and the biggest surprise? Did THAT really happen in 2022? Who was the worst politician this year? And which politicians should we be looking out for in 2023 and beyond? All these questions and more answered in this episode.

In the 100th episode of Ballot to Talk About, Sam and Chern take a look at the results from last weekend’s state election in Victoria, Australia. Daniel Andrews has led his Labor Party to a third term in decisive fashion over Matthew Guy’s Liberals and concludes a successful year for the Australian Labor Party across the country. How did Labor manage to pull off such a clear win? Did Labor win this election or is it more an indication of Liberal weakness? Why did the Teal Independents fail to make a similar splash to their Victoria results in the federal election? And how will the federal parties view these results and 2022 as a whole? All these questions and more answered in this episode.

This week’s episode takes a final dive into the results of this year’s US midterm elections as the dust has finally settled. As the party’s come to terms with the results and the divided Congress, Sam and Chern discuss the two party leadership elections and what may lie ahead. Have the Democrats finished in a position that leaves them favoured to retake the House in 2024? What is the legacy of Nancy Pelosi as she departs the Speaker’s Chair? Will Kevin McCarthy face a tough fight to be elected as Speaker? And what will the recently announced Donald Trump candidacy mean for Congressional Republican politics in this narrow majority environment? All these questions and more answered in this episode.

This week's episode looks back at elections in Israel and looks ahead to the upcoming state election in Victoria, Australia. In Israel’s fifth election in four years, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party looks set to be leading a Government once again. What led to the collapse of the Bennett/Lapid Government? How did Netanyahu win again? And will this new Government manage to stay the course?

In Victoria, as Daniel Andrews goes for a third term for his Labor Government, Sam and Chern break down the campaign and the seats to look out for. How has Andrews’ record in Government been, and how is Victoria expected to react after some of the toughest lockdowns in the world? Can Matthew Guy transform recent Liberal fortunes? And in what districts will this race be won or lost? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This slightly extended episode takes a dive into the results of last week’s US midterm elections, the first electoral test for incumbent President Joe Biden. As the Democrats retain control of the Senate and the Republicans look to be slight favourites to take a narrow majority in the House, Sam and Chern unpack the key races. Was there a national narrative or was this a very localised midterm? Why did the Republicans underperform traditional midterm expectations? What do these results mean for 2024? And do the results suggest that Donald Trump is a strength for the Republicans, or is he becoming a liability? All these questions and more answered in this bonus episode.

This week's episode looks back at national election results in both Brazil and Denmark. In Brazil, it took two rounds, but former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro to ensure he will enter 2023 as Brazil’s new leader. What were the demographic and geographic keys to Lula’s success? Why was the race much narrower than polls were originally expecting? Will this be the last of Bolsonaro’s career at the frontline of Brazilian politics? And has a “January 6th moment” been averted?

In Denmark, Mette Frederiksen looks set to continue as Danish Prime Minister after leading her Social Democratic Party to another victory, and a narrow majority for the traditional Red Bloc. Sam and Chern unpack the results as a whole and discuss what the new Government might look like. Will the Red Bloc hold, or will a new centrist Government be formed to break that mould? How did Frederiksen avoid the same fate as Magdalena Andersson earlier this year? What role will Rasmussen’s Moderates play after coming third? And what happened to the Venstre vote share? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.