The Mental Models Daily Podcast

Base Rate Fallacy


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The base rate fallacy, also known as neglecting base rates, occurs when an individual focuses on specific information or anecdotal evidence while ignoring broader statistical or base rate information. In other words, it involves underestimating the importance of general probabilities or prior knowledge when making judgments or decisions.


Avoid the 'Base Rate Fallacy'—don't overlook general statistical information in favor of specific anecdotes. 🧠📊 #BaseRateFallacy #MentalModels #CriticalThinking #Statistics #LogicalFallacies #DecisionMaking


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The Mental Models Daily PodcastBy Mental Models Daily

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