Berlin Security Beat

Alistair Wellmann, a Practice Fellow at the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, and an expert on sanctions implementation and effectiveness, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, to talk about sanctions. They discuss:

Bibliography

Felbermayr Gabriel J./ Syropoulos, Constantinos/ Yalcin Erdal/ Yotov Yoto (2019): On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database. School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-3, July 2019, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3422152

Felbermayr, Gabriel J./ Kirilakha, Aleksandra/ Syropoulos, Constantinos/ Yalcin, Erdal / Yotov, Yoto V. (2020): The global sanctions data base, in: European Economic Review, Vol. 129, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292120301914

Hackenbroich, Jonathan/ Zerka, Pawel (2021): Economic arm-twisting is on the rise: Europe must learn how to resist it, in: https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2021/11/economic-arm-twisting-is-on-the-rise-europe-must-learn-how-to-resist-it

Hufbauer, Gary C./ Schott, Jeffrey J./ Elliott Kimberly A./ Oegg Barbara (2009): Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy, 3rd ed, Peterson Institute, https://www.piie.com/bookstore/economic-sanctions-reconsidered-3rd-edition-paper

Jordan, Joseph F. (2013): Sanctions Were Crucial to the Defeat of Apartheid, in: https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/11/19/sanctions-successes-and-failures/sanctions-were-crucial-to-the-defeat-of-apartheid

The Economist (2021): Sanctions are now a central tool of governments’ foreign policy, 04/24/2021, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/04/22/sanctions-are-now-a-central-tool-of-governments-foreign-policy

Zarate, Juan (2013): Treasury's War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare, PublicAffairs, New York, https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/juan-zarate/treasurys-war/9781610391160/

Julian Wucherpfennig, Professor of International Affairs and Security at the Hertie School, and an expert on ethnic civil war and terrorism, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks to talk about terrorism. They discuss:

Bibliography

Bapat, Navin A. (2019): Monsters to Destroy: Understanding the War on Terror, Oxford University Press, https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190061456.001.0001/oso-9780190061456

Bush, George W. (2001): Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People, 09/20/2001, Washington D.C., https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html

Bush, George W. (2001): Remarks by the President Upon Arrival, 09/16/2001, Washington D.C., https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010916-2.html

Cederman, Lars-Erik/ Hug, Simon/ Wucherpfennig, Julian: Sharing Power, Securing Peace? Ethnic Inclusion and Civil War, Cambridge University Press, forthcoming.

Downes, Alexandra B., & Monten, Jonathan (2013): Forced to be free? Why foreign-imposed regime change rarely leads to democratization, in: International Security, 37(4), 90-131, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/forced-be-free-why-foreign-imposed-regime-change-rarely-leads-democratization

Kurtz-Phelan, Daniel (2021): Who Won the War on Terror? in: Foreign Affairs, September October 2021 Issue, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issue-packages/2021-08-24/who-won-war-terror

Kydd, Andrew H., & Walter, Barbara F. (2006): The Strategies of Terrorism, in: International Security, 31(1), 49-80, https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/is3101_pp049-080_kydd_walter.pdf

Lake, David A. (2002): Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century, in: Dialogue IO, 1(1), 15-28, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/dialogue-io/article/rational-extremism-understanding-terrorism-in-the-twentyfirst-century/BF1544EC14CAEB60B0118EFB9D0B6E5C

Lipset, Seymour Martin (1959): Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy, in: The American Political Science Review, 53 (1), 69-105, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1951731?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

Mueller, John/ Stewart, Mark G. (2014): Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending, in: Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3), 237-48, https://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/services/Download/uon:19633/ATTACHMENT02

Polo, Sara M.T./ Wucherpfennig Julian (2021): As refugee numbers rise many countries want to shut them out for security concerns, in: The Washington Post/ Monkey Cage, /06/21/2021), https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/21/refugee-numbers-rise-many-countries-want-shut-them-out-security-concerns/

Polo, Sara M.T./ Wucherpfennig, Julian (2021): Trojan Horse, Copycat, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terrorism Nexus, in: The Journal of Politics, 83(1), https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/3824/file/Refugees_v9.3_journal.pdf

Wucherpfennig, Julian (2021): Executive Power Sharing in the Face of Civil War, in: International Studies Quarterly, https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/3990/file/wucherpfennig_powersharing_civilwar.pdf

Marina Henke, Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School and Director of the Centre for International Security, an expert on nuclear security, military interventions and European defense policy, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, to talk about nuclear security. They discuss:

Where to start? Marina Henke’s ‘Intro to Nuclear Security’ List

Heuser, Beatrice (1998): Nuclear Mentalities? Strategies and Beliefs in Britain, France and the FRG, Palgrave MacMillan, https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230377752

Schelling, Thomas C. (1960): The Strategy of Conflict, Harvard University Press, https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674840317&content=reviews

Schelling, Thomas C. (1966): Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300143379/arms-and-influence

Bibliography

Egeland, Kjølv/ Pelopidas, Benoît (2021): European Nuclear Weapons? Zombie Debates and Nuclear Realities, in: European Security, 30:2, 237-258, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09662839.2020.1855147

Fink, Anya L. (2017), The Evolving Russian Concept of Strategic Deterrence: Risks and Responses, Arms Control Today, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2017-07/features/evolving-russian-concept-strategic-deterrence-risks-responses

Gavin, Francis J. (2020): Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy, Brookings Institution Press, https://www.brookings.edu/book/nuclear-weapons-and-american-grand-strategy/

Holmes, Marcus (2015): Fight-or-Flight or Tend-and-Befriend? Stress and the Political Psychology of Crisis Diplomacy, The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, 10(1), 15-21, https://brill.com/view/journals/hjd/10/1/article-p15_4.xml

Kofman, Michael/ Fink, Anya/ Edmonds, Jeffrey (2020): Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts, https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/DRM-2019-U-022455-1Rev.pdf

Krepon, Michael (2021): Let’s Discuss Strategic Stability, https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212358/lets-discuss-strategic-stability/

Larsen, Jeffrey A. (2014): Limited War and the Advent of Nuclear Weapons, in: Larsen, Jeffrey A., and Kerry M. Kartchner, (eds): On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century, Stanford University Press, 2014, 3-20, https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780804790918/html

Lewis, Jeffrey (2021): The Nuclear Option: Slowing a New Arms Race Means Compromising on Missile Defenses, in: Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-02-22/nuclear-option

Pifer, Steven (2021): Germany’s upcoming election and the future of nuclear sharing, https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/

Press, Daryl G./ Sagan, Scott D./ Valentino, Benjamin A. (2013): Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons, in: American Political Science Review, 107: 1, 188–206, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/atomic-aversion-experimental-evidence-on-taboos-traditions-and-the-nonuse-of-nuclear-weapons/3F9FD4E39E19284555376D01AA36028E

Tannenwald: Nina (2018): The Vanishing Nuclear Taboo? How Disarmament Fell Apart, in: Foreign Affairs, 97:6, 16-24, https://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/news/2018/The%20Vanishing%20Nuclear%20Taboo%20-%20Foreign%20Affairs%202018.pdf

Ven Bruusgaard, Kristin (2020): Russian Nuclear Strategy and Conventional Inferiority, in: Journal of Strategic Studies, 1-33, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2020.1818070

More from Marina Henke:

Henke, Marina (2019): Constructing Allied Cooperation: Diplomacy, Payments, and Power in Multilateral Military Coalitions, Cornell University Press, https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501739712/constructing-allied-cooperation/#bookTabs=1

Tarah Wheeler, a Cyber Project Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and an expert on information security and international conflict, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, to talk about cyber security. They discuss:

Bibliography

Tarah Wheeler’s Choice for Best Cyber “Beach Read”

Andrea Ruggeri, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Oxford, and an expert on peacekeeping and civil wars, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, to talk about UN peacekeeping. They discuss:

Bibliography

Blair, Robert (2021): UN Peacekeeping and the Rule of Law, in: American Political Science Review, 115(1), 51-68, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/un-peacekeeping-and-the-rule-of-law/0ACAA5D97E5E1A49B9EC1BE20F2171F2

Bove, Vincenzo/ Ruffa, Chiara/ Ruggeri, Andrea (2020): Composing Peace: Mission Composition in UN Peacekeeping, Oxford University Press, https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198790655.001.0001/oso-9780198790655

Bove, Vincenzo/ Ruggeri, Andrea (2019): Peacekeeping Effectiveness and Blue Helmets’ Distance from Locals, in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(7), 1630-1655, https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/VhUDww4kW2CQH4CHw98f/full

Di Salvatore, Jessica/ Ruggeri, Andrea (2020): The Withdrawal of UN Peace Operations and State Capacity: Descriptive Trends and Research Challenges, in: International Peacekeeping, 27:1, 12-21, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13533312.2019.1710368

Gowan, Richard (2020): UN Peacekeeping in a Fragmenting International Order, (11/25/2020), https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/un-peacekeeping-fragmenting-international-order

Gowan, Richard/ Dreisbach, Tristan (2015): United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS), in: Koops, Joachim A./ Tardy, Thierry/ MacQueen, Norrie/ Williams Paul D. (eds.): The Oxford Handbook of United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199686049.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199686049-e-14

Henke, Marina E. (2019): Networked Cooperation: How the European Union Mobilizes Peacekeeping Forces to Project Power Abroad, in: Security Studies, 28:5, 901-934, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2019.1662480

Hultman, Lisa/ Kathman, Jacob D./ Shannon, Megan (2019): Peacekeeping in the Midst of War, Oxford University Press, https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198845577.001.0001/oso-9780198845577

Ruggeri, Andrea/ Dorussen, Han/ Gizelis, Theodora-Ismene (2017): Winning the Peace Locally: UN Peacekeeping and Local Conflict, in: International Organization, 71(1), https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/winning-the-peace-locally-un-peacekeeping-and-local-conflict/9B61C8D64514F995C96A994AD5613CA3

Ruggeri, Andrea/ Dorussen, Han/ Gizelis, Theodora-Ismene (2018): On the Frontline Every Day? Subnational Deployment of United Nations Peacekeepers, in: British Journal of Political Science, 48(4), 1005-1025, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/abs/on-the-frontline-every-day-subnational-deployment-of-united-nations-peacekeepers/3044ED55C33F9F8A0F9770EFEE34D9D9

Walter, Barabara, Howard, Lise, & Fortna, V. Page (2020): The Extraordinary Relationship between Peacekeeping and Peace, in: British Journal of Political Science, 1-18, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/abs/extraordinary-relationship-between-peacekeeping-and-peace/D2D5D262B60315387B0B23D1D4F79CC9

Williams, Paul D./ Bellamy, Alex J. (2021): Understanding Peacekeeping, 3rd edition, Wiley, https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Understanding+Peacekeeping,+3rd+Edition-p-9780745686721

Andrea Ruggeri’s Choice for ‘Coolest’ IR Paper

Di Salvatore, Jessica (2019): Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations? In: American Journal of Political Science, 63(4), 840-858, https://ajps.org/2019/09/05/peacekeepers-against-criminal-violence-unintended-effects-of-un-peacekeeping-operations/

Howard, Lise M./ Dayal, Anjali K. (2018): The Use of Force in UN Peacekeeping, in: International Organization, 72(1), 71-103, http://lisehoward.georgetown.domains/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Howard-and-Dayal-2018-The-Use-of-Force-in-UN-Peacekeeping.pdf

And… just for fun

Niemann, Christoph (2020): Coffee, https://www.christophniemann.com/detail/coffee/

Sara Mitchell, Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa, and an expert on international conflict, esp. territorial, river and maritime issues, joins Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre for International Security, to talk about maritime disputes. They discuss:

Bibliography:

Caverly, Jonathan/ Mitchell, Sara M. (2021): A Liberal Case for Seapower?, 02/25/2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/02/a-liberal-case-for-seapower/

Cunningham, Fiona S. (2020): The Maritime Rung on the Escalation Ladder: Naval Blockades in a U.S.-China Conflict, Security Studies, 29 (4), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2020.1811462?journalCode=fsst20

Grossman, Derek/ Ma, Logan (2020): A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us, 04/06/2020, https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/a-short-history-of-chinas-fishing-militia-and-what.html#4

Hayton, Bill (2018): Two Years On, South China Sea Ruling Remains a Battleground for the Rules-Based Order, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2018/07/two-years-south-china-sea-ruling-remains-battleground-rules-based-order

Hensel, Paul R./ Mitchell, Sara M. (2019): The Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project, http://www.paulhensel.org/icow.html

Mitchell, Sara M. (2021): The Path from Iowa Farm Girl to Iowa Professor, H-Diplo Essay 325, Essay Series: Learning the Scholar’s Craft: Reflections of Historians and International Relations Scholars, https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/7414373/h-diplo-essay-325-sara-mclaughlin-mitchell-learning-scholars

Mitchell, Sara M. (2020): Clashes at Sea: Explaining the Onset, Militarization, and Resolution of Diplomatic Maritime Claims, Security Studies, 29(4), 637-670, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2020.1811458?journalCode=fsst20

Schmidt, Cody J., Lee, Bomi K. and Mitchell, Sara M. (2021): Climate Bones of Contention: How Climate Variability Influences Territorial, Maritime, and River Interstate Conflicts, Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 132–150, https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/DU4JWEKYKQFC9BPVJBM5/full

Wirth, Christian/ Schatz, Valentin (2020): South China Sea "Lawfare": Fighting over the Freedom of Navigation, (GIGA Focus Asien, 5), Hamburg: GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Asien-Studien, https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/20691035-south-china-lawfare-fighting-over-freedom-navigation/

Zhang, Ketian (2019): Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve, and Beijing's Use of Coercion in the South China Sea, International Security, 44(1), 117–159, https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/44/1/117/12241/Cautious-Bully-Reputation-Resolve-and-Beijing-s

Sara Mitchell’s Choice for Best Article/Book:

Daxecker, Ursula/ Prins, Brandon (2021): Pirate Lands: Governance and Maritime Piracy, Oxford, https://global.oup.com/academic/product/pirate-lands-9780190097394?cc=us&lang=en&

Thomas, Jakana L. (2021). Wolves in Sheep's Clothing: Assessing the Effect of Gender Norms on the Lethality of Female Suicide Terrorism. International Organization, 1-34, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/wolves-in-sheeps-clothing-assessing-the-effect-of-gender-norms-on-the-lethality-of-female-suicide-terrorism/D9BFE04ECEDC0DC9E96818C0FBA6DE8B

Bibliography

Badi, Emadeddin/ Lacher, Wolfram (2021): Agree to Disagree: Libya’s New Unity Government, in: Sada, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/83839

Cole, Peter/ McQuinn, Brian (eds) (2015): The Libyan Revolution and its Aftermath, London: Hurst Publishers, https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190210960.001.0001/acprof-9780190210960

Costantini, Irene (2016): Conflict Dynamics in Post-2011 Libya: A Political Economy Perspective, in: Conflict, Security & Development, 16(5), 405-422, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14678802.2016.1212534

Dassù, Marta (2020): Why the War in Libya is a Test for Italy – and for a Geopolitical European Commission, https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_the_war_in_libya_is_a_test_for_italy_and_for_a_geopolitical/

Kuperman, Alan J. (2015): Obama's Libya Debacle: How a Well-Meaning Intervention Ended in Failure, Foreign Affairs, 94 (2), 66-77, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2019-02-18/obamas-libya-debacle

Lacher, Wolfram (2021): Unser schwieriger Partner: Deutschlands und Frankreichs erfolgloses Engagement in Libyen und Mali [Our Difficult Partner: Germany’s and France’s Unsuccessful Engagement in Libya and Mali], SWP-Studie 2021/S 03, https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/deutschlands-und-frankreichs-erfolgloses-engagement-in-libyen-und-mali/ (in German)

McQuinn, Brian (2013): Assessing (In) security after the Arab Spring: The Case of Libya, in: PS: Political Science and Politics, 46 (4), 716-720, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/abs/assessing-insecurity-after-the-arab-spring-the-case-of-libya/07D6A2263601379C0B33E9B0C5BEA253

McQuinn, Brian (2016): DDR and the Internal Organization of Non-State Armed Groups, in: Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 5(1): 2–25.

McQuinn, Brian/ Couchesne, Laura (2020): Armed-Group Proliferation: Origins and Consequences, Armed Conflict Survey, 6:1, 14-18, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761609?journalCode=tarm20

Megerisi, Tarek (2019): Libya’s Global Civil War, Policy Brief, https://ecfr.eu/publication/libyas_global_civil_war1/

Pack, Jason/ Pusztai, Wolfgang (2020): Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli, Policy Paper, Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Turning%20the%20Tide%20-%20How%20Turkey%20Won%20the%20War%20for%20Tripoli.pdf

Reuters (2020): Factbox: Who's involved in Libya's war and why, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-intervention-factbox-idUSKBN2351W0

Vandewalle, Dirk (2012): After Qaddafı: The Surprising Success of the New Libya, in: Foreign Affairs, 91 (6), 8–15, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2012-09-16/after-qaddafi

Wehrey, Frederic (2020): “This War Is Out of Our Hands”: The Internationalization of Libya’s Post-2011 Conflicts From Proxies to Boots on the Ground, https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/14/this-war-is-out-of-our-hands-internationalization-of-libya-s-post-2011-conflicts-from-proxies-to-boots-on-ground-pub-82695

Brian McQuinn’s Choice for Best Article/Book:

Abdul-Ahad, Ghaith (2013): How to Start a Battalion (in Five Easy Lessons), in: London Review of Books, 35 (4), https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n04/ghaith-abdul-ahad/how-to-start-a-battalion-in-five-easy-lessons

Lewis, Janet (2020): How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bibliography

Biden, Joseph R. (2021): Remarks by President Biden on America’s Place in the World, (02/04/2021), U.S. Department of State Headquarters, Washington DC., https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/

Brands, Hal (2017): The Unexceptional Superpower: American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump, Survival, 59:6, 7-40, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2017.1399722

Drezner, Daniel W./ Krebs, Ronald R./ Schweller, Randall (2020): The End of Grand Strategy: America Must Think Small, in: Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2020-04-13/end-grand-strategy

Ehrhardt, Andrew/ Ryan, Maeve (2020): Grand Strategy is no Silver Bullet, But it is Indispensable, in: War on the Rocks, (05/1/2020), https://warontherocks.com/2020/05/grand-strategy-is-no-silver-bullet-but-it-is-indispensable/

Foreign Affairs (2020): Should U.S. Foreign Policy Focus on Great-Power Competition? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts, (10/13/2020), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/2020-10-13/should-us-foreign-policy-focus-great-power-competition

Goddard, Stacie (2018): “The US and China are playing a dangerous game. What comes next?” Washington Post, (10/3/2018), https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/03/from-tariffs-to-the-south-china-sea-beijing-is-pushing-back/

Goddard, Stacie (2018): Embedded Revisionism: Networks, Institutions, and Challenges to World Order, in: International Organization, 72(4), 763-797, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/embedded-revisionism-networks-institutions-and-challenges-to-world-order/638F5371CD30CE51C304065D9F2FF360

Goddard, Stacie (2020): Revolution from the Inside: Institutions, Legitimation Strategies, and Rhetorical Pathways of Institutional Change, Global Policy, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12853

Goddard, Stacie (2020): The Authors Respond – Stacie Goddard, in: Journal of East Asian Studies, 20(2), 172-176, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-east-asian-studies/article/abs/authors-respond-stacie-goddard/A8352CA3F2BD7D1CA49B04FA3F7C2F4B

Goddard, Stacie/ Krebs, Ronald (2015): Rhetoric, Legitimation, and Grand Strategy, in: Security Studies, 24(1), 5-37, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2014.1001198?journalCode=fsst20

Goddard, Stacie/ Krebs, Ronald (2018): Constructivism and the Logic of Legitimation, in: James, Patrick/ Bertucci, Mariano/ Hayes, Jarrod (eds.): Constructivism Reconsidered, University of Michigan Press, 67-86.

Kennedy, Paul (1991): Grand Strategy in War and Peace: Toward a Broader Definition, in: Kennedy, Paul (ed): Grand Strategies in War and Peace, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Lawless, Scott (2020): American Grand Strategy for an Emerging World Order, in: Strategic Studies Quarterly (14/2), 127-147, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26915280?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

Posen, Barry (1984): The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

Tie for No. 1 on Stacie Goddard’s Reading List

Hamalainen, Pekka (2019): Lakota America: A New History of Indigenous Power, New Haven: Yale University Press.

St. John Mandel, Emily (2020): The Glass Hotel, New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.

Bibliography

Bremmer, Ian/ Kupchan, Cliff (2021): Risk 9: Europe after Merkel, in: Eurasia Group: Top Risks 2021, https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-9-europe-after-merkel

Brummer, Klaus/ Oppermann, Kai (2014): Patterns of Junior Partner Influence on the Foreign Policy of Coalition Governments, in: British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 16 (4), 555-571. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-856X.12025?journalCode=bpia

Bulmer, Simon/ Paterson, William E. (2019): Germany and the European Union: Europe's Reluctant Hegemon? Macmillan International Higher Education, London. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644008.2019.1572958

Collier, David (2011): Understanding Process Tracing, in: Political Science and Politics, 4 (2011), 823-30, https://polisci.berkeley.edu/sites/Understanding_Process_Tracing.pdf

Franke, Ulrike (2021): Why a ‘Black-Green’ German government could finally create a coherent defence policy, in: Note From Berlin, 01/19/2021, https://ecfr.eu/article/why-a-black-green-german-government-could-finally-create-a-coherent-defence-policy/

Gaskarth, Jamie/ Oppermann, Kai (2019): Clashing Traditions: German Foreign Policy in a New Era, in: International Studies Perspectives, Online First (2019). https://academic.oup.com/isp/advance-article/doi/10.1093/isp/ekz017/5581524

Gassert, Philipp (2017): Wie man eine Bundestagwahl verliert [How to Lose a German Federal Election], in: Die Zeit, https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-09/wahlentscheidung-bundestagswahl-eu-fluechtlinge-vertrauen-d17

Harnisch, Sebastian (2015): Deutschlands Rolle in der Libyen-Intervention: Führung, Gefolgschaft und das angebliche Versagen der Regierung Merkel [Germany’s Role in the Libya Intervention: Leadership, Fealty and the Alleged Failure of the Merkel Administration], in: Kneuer, Marianne (Hg.): Standortbestimmung Deutschlands: Innere Verfasstheit und internationale Verantwortung, Baden-Baden, 85-122. https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/9783845252841/standortbestimmung-deutschlands-innere-verfasstheit-und-internationale-verantwortung

Kirste, Knut/ Maull, Hanns W. (1996): Zivilmacht und Rollentheorie [Civilian Power and Role Theory], in: Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen 3(2), 283-312. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40844107?seq=1

Maull, Hanns W. (2000): Germany and the Use of Force: Still a ‘Civilian Power’? in: Survival, vol. 42, no. 2 (Summer 2000): 56—80. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/238401888_Germany_and_the_Use_of_Force_Still_a_Civilian_Power

Oppermann, Kai (2012): National Role Conceptions, Domestic Constraints and the New ‘Normalcy’ in German Foreign Policy: the Eurozone Crisis, Libya and Beyond, in: German Politics, 21 (4), 502-519. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644008.2012.748268

Oppermann, Kai (2019): Between a Rock and a Hard Place? Navigating Domestic and International Expectations on German Foreign Policy, in: German Politics, 28 (3) (2019), 482-498. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/76617/3/Between_a_Rock_and_a_Hard_Place-_Kai_Oppermann.pdf

Oppermann, Kai (2019): Koalitionspolitik und nationale Rollenkonzeptionen: Der Stellenwert von Multilateralismus und Antimilitarismus für die „Zivilmacht“ Deutschland [Coalition Politics and Role Conceptions: The Significance of Multilateralism and Anti-Militarism for the „Civilian Power“ Germany], in: Brummer, Klaus/ Kießling, Friedrich (Hg.): Zivilmacht Bundesrepublik?, 273 – 294. https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/koalitionspolitik-und-nationale-rollenkonzeptionen-der-stellenwert-von-multilateralismus-und-antimilitarismus-fuer-die-zivilmacht-deutschland

Smith, Michael E. (1996): Sending the Bundeswehr to the Balkans: The Domestic Politics of Reflexive Multilateralism, in: German Politics & Society, Vol. 14, No. 4 (41), pp. 49-67, https://www.jstor.org/stable/23736427

Tisdall, Simon (2021): 2021: The Story of a Year in 12 Leaders, in: The Guardian, 01/01/2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/2021-the-story-of-a-year-in-12-leaders

Kai Oppermann’s Favorite Election Movie/Documentary:

Levinson, Barry (1997): Wag the Dog, United States: New Line Cinema.

Pennebaker, D. A. and Hegedus, Chris (1993): The War Room, United States: McEttinger Films/ Pennebaker Associates.

ACLED (2019): Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020, https://acleddata.com/2020/01/23/ten-conflicts-to-worry-about-in-2020/

ACLED (2020): Mid-Year Update: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020, https://acleddata.com/2020/08/18/mid-year-update-10-conflicts-to-worry-about-in-2020/#1597759395479-dd34f4e9-c05f

Cedermann, Lars-Erik, Nils B. Weidmann (2017): Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations? In: Science, 355(6324), 474-476, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324/474

Chiba, Daina, Metternich, Nils W., & Ward, Michael D. (2015): Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework, in: Political Science Research and Methods, 3(3), 515-541, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/every-story-has-a-beginning-middle-and-an-end-but-not-always-in-that-order-predicting-duration-dynamics-in-a-unified-framework/6D6CD38441830E877284845252A985AB

Çiflikli, Gökhan, Metternich, Nils W., Weber, Sigrid, & Rickard, Kit (2019): Taking Time Seriously When Evaluating Predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data, SocArXiv, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tvshu

Graham, David A. (2014): Rumsfeld's Knowns and Unknowns: The Intellectual History of a Quip, in: The Atlantic (03/27/2014), https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/03/rumsfelds-knowns-and-unknowns-the-intellectual-history-of-a-quip/359719/

Kampf, David (2020): Why Ethiopia’s conflict could spill beyond its borders: Civil wars rarely remain purely domestic affairs, in: The Monkey Cage (12/01/2020), The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/01/why-ethiopias-conflict-could-spill-beyond-its-borders/

Lilla, Mark (2020): No One Knows What’s Going to Happen: Stop asking pundits to predict the future after the coronavirus. It doesn’t exist, in: The New York Times, 05/22/2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-prediction-future.html

Metternich, Nils W., et al. (2019): Predicting the Severity of Civil Wars: An Actor-centric Approach, SocArXiv, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/92y58

Rose, Gideon (2020): What’s Inside: How can responsible policymakers prepare for the next crisis while grappling with current ones? In: Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issue-packages/2020-10-13/what-are-we-missing

Scoblic, J. Peter/ Tetlock, Philip E. (2020): A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future, in: Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/better-crystal-ball

Tetlock, Philip E. (2005): Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How can We Know? Princeton University Press.

Nils Metternich’s Choice for Best Books of 2020

Hultman, Lisa/ Kathman, Jacob D./ Shannon, Megan (2019): Peacekeeping in the Midst of War, Oxford University Press.

Pan, Jennifer (2020): Welfare for Autocrats: How Social Assistance in China Cares for Its Rulers, Oxford University Press.

Weidmann, Nils B./ Rød, Espen Geelmuyden (2019): The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies, Oxford University Press.