Introduction

In this interview, Becka Thompson and I discuss the upheaval at the Park Board, the realities of campaigning, and the growing strains on Minneapolis’s budget.

One of the biggest surprises this election cycle was the defeat of longtime Park Board Commissioner Steffanie Musich by Kay Carvajal Moran in District 5. Moran, a recent Augsburg University graduate with degrees in sociology and history, works as a case manager assistant for Hennepin County, helping tenants access rental assistance, mediation, and other supports. She is active with the Minnesota Immigrant Movement and centers her platform on expanding youth programming, strengthening economic opportunity, and promoting transit, green space, and pedestrian safety. Despite Musich’s decade of experience and deep institutional knowledge, voters favored Moran’s activist-driven platform and fresh political profile.

Moran received endorsements from several labor unions as well as Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, highlighting the shifting political dynamics that shaped this year’s Park Board outcomes.

The Fraud Train Speeds Ahead

If Thompson and I had recorded our interview just a few hours later, we might have discussed the article Met Council audit finds ‘high risk’ that nonprofit misused federal funds. That story—focused on Move Minneapolis, a transportation-focused subsidiary accused of potential misuse of federal dollars—fits squarely within the concerns we raised about why government spending continues to grow while accountability lags.

Across every level of government—city, county, state, and the Met Council—public agencies now rely on an expansive network of nonprofits and contractors to carry out core responsibilities. Housing support, health care, transportation programs, violence prevention, and more are increasingly outsourced. As we noted in the interview, outsourcing can work only when paired with strong oversight and regular, independent audits. Those protections are often missing. Daily headlines about fraud and misuse of funds reflect a system where elected officials have limited incentives to intervene, particularly when the organizations receiving contracts also form part of their political support structure. Scrutinizing finances risks alienating key constituencies. It’s a convoluted system that rewards fraud and inefficiency.

Each outsourced contract also carries a hidden cost rarely reflected in public reports: the internal staff time required to monitor compliance, track outcomes, and verify billing. Without dedicated oversight, fraud and misuse become more likely—further eroding trust in government and harming the very residents these programs are meant to serve. With the DFL controlling the city, county, and state, the lack of transparent accountability becomes a significant vulnerability. It leaves residents wondering whether those in power can effectively oversee the systems they run or deliver the public services they champion during election season.

There is also an unmistakable link between rising fraud and a shrinking corps of investigative reporters in Minnesota. With fewer journalists scrutinizing public contracts and records, the likelihood of malfeasances being caught declines. In this case, the Move Minneapolis audit emerged only because investigators were already examining allegations that former Minneapolis Regional Chamber CEO Jonathan Weinhagen had embezzled hundreds of thousands of dollars. The discovery was incidental, not systemic.

Minnesota has an abundance of goodwill—but that goodwill is too often taken advantage of at taxpayer expense. What the state needs far more of is independent auditing, stronger investigative journalism, and a commitment to ethical standards that put residents first.

Conversation Summary

In this wide-ranging conversation, former Park Board commissioner and recent Ward 12 city council candidate Becka Thompson reflects on Minneapolis’s turbulent 2024 election cycle. She describes how the Park Board—long a relatively drama-free body—was reshaped by surprise losses, shifting endorsements, and what she characterizes as a disorderly DFL convention process. Thompson argues that the lack of transparency, inconsistent rules, and mishandled delegate data in both the ward and citywide conventions undermined trust and helped flip control of the Park Board, erasing crucial institutional knowledge.

Looking back on her campaign, Thompson highlights the intense demands placed on candidates—especially those juggling work and family responsibilities—and the steep learning curve of modern Minneapolis politics. She speaks candidly about the “gamesmanship” behind the scenes, the growing influence of organized factions, and how campaign messaging differs from the realities of governing. She also reflects on communication strategies, noting that while social media expanded her visibility, different platforms reached distinct—and sometimes hostile—audiences.

Turning to the city’s future, Thompson expresses deep concern about Minneapolis’s financial trajectory, pointing to rising property taxes, shrinking commercial corridors, and declining tax payment rates as warning signs of instability. She argues that the city has become too reliant on a patchwork of nonprofit contracts and calls for independent audits, stronger oversight, and a return to city-run services. Looking ahead to the new council term, she sees a closely divided body where a few swing members will determine whether Minneapolis moves toward fiscal restraint and transparency or continues on its current course. Despite her disappointment with the election, Thompson closes by affirming her commitment to the city she calls home.

Introduction

Our interview with Phil Fuehrer and Bill Halter was a reminder that politics doesn’t have to look the way it does today. As we continue to search for a political home, we were reminded that there is another option beyond the current DFL/Republican duopoly. The newly formed Forward Independence Party is positioning itself as that alternative, with an emphasis on ethical candidates, problem-solving, and a willingness to work across traditional party lines.

The Forward Independence Party will announce its first slate of endorsed candidates for Governor, State Auditor, and Congressional District 6 on Thursday, November 20, at the State Capitol. You can learn more about the party and its candidates on their website: forwardindependencemn.org.

The DFL Listening Tour Gets an Earful

The DFL’s listening session at Sabathani Community Center on Thursday, Nov. 13, underscored the deep internal divide within the party. On one side are those urging the DFL to move toward the center; on the other, activists pushing for a platform closer to that of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). As expected, DFL State Chair Richard Carlbom was peppered with pointed questions and criticism, much of it from people who participated in the city convention and likely supported Omar Fateh, Jazz Hampton, or DeWayne Davis.

Only about a quarter of those who wanted to speak actually got a turn at the microphone. The hour allotted to “listening” was too short—especially given that roughly 20 minutes were consumed by a polished PR presentation that boiled down to a message about prioritizing “affordability.” It’s reasonable to assume the 40 or so people still in line would have voiced frustrations similar to the dozen who did speak. Carlbom did his best to acknowledge the dissatisfaction and said he wants to “enlarge the DFL tent,” but there weren’t many in the room who seemed convinced.

The schism in the Minneapolis DFL may not significantly affect statewide races; many disillusioned voters on the left have nowhere else to go if they are aligned with the DSA platform—they’re not about to vote Republican. The bigger challenge for the state DFL may be in the suburbs and rural Minnesota. Party leaders must persuade those voters that, despite the fraud, waste, and abuse that have occurred under Walz and Flanagan, they remain the safest pair of hands to guide the state’s future. That task becomes harder when they must also explain how the state DFL differs from the more liberal Minneapolis DFL. For many outside the city, Minneapolis is already viewed as a crime-stricken, morally adrift “other.” If they come to see the DFL as a quasi-socialist party as well, those voters may be out of reach.

The Property Tax Shakedown

This week, Hennepin County’s Proposed Levies & Taxes statement arrived in the mail. Ours shows a 10.1% property tax increase—in a single year. The county’s tax levy is set to rise 7.79%, pushing its annual budget above $3 billion. While a few outlets cover Minneapolis city politics, coverage of the Hennepin County Board is sparse. That gap is a symptom of a weakened news ecosystem: good reporting is expensive, and it’s increasingly hard to sustain a local media business. Covering levies and county board meetings doesn’t drive clicks.

We live in District 4, represented by Commissioner Angela Conley who was one of the commissioners that voted to raise their salaries by 49%. Her biography on the Hennepin County website notes that she “has worked tirelessly to change systems at the macro level, both at the state and county, in ways that are holistic, person-first and seamless.” Her stated goals include “focus[ing] on housing as a fundamental human right, eliminating race-based disparities in Hennepin County and improving the health and well-being of all Hennepin County residents.” These are worthy aspirations.

But aspirations are not a substitute for accountability. In 2022, Conley ran unopposed and received 98.5% of the vote. In 2026, she will hopefully face an opponent—someone who will talk about the budget and how the county can better contain costs. If no one is willing to challenge her from within the DFL, the Forward Independence Party may become a springboard for a candidate who is tired of constant cost escalation and the ever-rising tax burden. Residents deserve leaders who can balance “person-first and seamless” systems with the everyday pocketbook realities that are making Hennepin County increasingly unaffordable for many of the people who live here.

Conversation Summary

The conversation opens with an introduction to the newly merged Forward Independence Party of Minnesota, represented by state co-chairs Phil Fuehrer and Bill Halter. Phil describes his long history in third-party politics, beginning with the original Independence Party and campaigns dating back to the Jesse Ventura era. Both guests emphasize that the merger of the Forward Party and the Independent Party alliance emerged from a shared frustration with the increasingly polarized, zero-sum nature of two-party politics—and from a belief that Minnesota voters want candidates who prioritize listening, pragmatism, and collaboration over party-line warfare.

The guests detail why the two organizations chose to merge and how aligned their visions already were. They describe a party structure centered on “candidate-forward” flexibility—encouraging candidates to shape their platforms based on the needs of their districts rather than conforming to rigid ideological mandates. Much of the conversation highlights systemic barriers in Minnesota’s party system, including ballot access rules, major-party thresholds, and campaign finance limits, all of which make it difficult for independents to compete. They argue that becoming a major party is essential for leveling the playing field and attracting strong candidates who don’t want to navigate petition requirements or rely on PAC money.

Finally, the discussion turns to the substantive issues the Forward Independence Party hopes to elevate—responsible governance, fiscal realism, political ethics, and forward-looking policy areas like the future of work and artificial intelligence. They stress their commitment to recruiting ethical candidates, embrace evidence-based problem-solving, and can bridge political divides. The episode closes with reflections on election reform, spoiler-effect criticisms, and their belief that Minnesota voters are increasingly ready to consider a viable alternative to the DFL–GOP binary.

The Tour

The state DFL Listening Tour stops in Minneapolis this Thursday, November 13, at the Sabathani Community Center (6:30–7:30 p.m.). We’ll be there — curious to see whether the event brings clarity to a party struggling to define its message and direction.

If you’d like to participate but are unable to attend, you can still add your comments on the DFL website.

Now is the Time

We applaud State Party Chair Richard Carlbom for bringing the Listening Tour to Minneapolis. His effort comes at a time when the party is experiencing significant internal strife. The recent municipal election demonstrated that, although support for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) does not constitute a majority, it remains a formidable presence. Sen. Omar Fateh secured 44% of the vote running as a DSA/DFL candidate, a not insignificant amount. The State DFL will have to come to terms with DSA voters, or it risks losing them. The struggle to define the party’s direction may keep the DFL from growing and strengthening.

It’s too soon to know whether Republican challengers for governor can capitalize on this division, but Governor Walz’s path to reelection has undoubtedly grown more complicated because of their strong showing. Some DFLers may simply stay home — or cast protest votes — forcing Walz to work harder for suburban and rural support. To win his reelection, Walz needs strong support from voters in Minneapolis and Duluth.

The 365-Day Election Cycle

Even in an off year, politics never really stops in Minnesota. With the 2026 elections still a ways off, this quieter stretch offers the DFL a rare opportunity—to pause, regroup, and clarify what it actually stands for. Right now, the message feels scattered.

Over the next few weeks, we’ll look at a few issues the DFL needs to confront if it hopes to regain coherence and momentum. Let’s start with healthcare.

Healthcare: A Test of Unity

Healthcare affects everyone, but the DFL hasn’t landed on a clear, unified plan. Two leading candidates for Senate—Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig—both have ideas, but they approach the problem from different angles.

Flanagan, who recently earned Bernie Sanders’ endorsement, favors a Medicare for All model and stronger limits on insurance company profits. Craig takes a more incremental route—focusing on patient safety, lowering prescription drug costs, and giving Medicare more power to negotiate prices.

Both are addressing real problems, but Minnesotans might benefit from a broader conversation: what would a Minnesota-based healthcare solution look like?

A Local Approach Worth Considering

The many public unions in the state currently negotiate their own insurance contracts—a complicated, costly system that dilutes their collective bargaining power. Instead, could Minnesota pool all public employees—teachers, county staff, park workers, and more—into a single statewide plan?

A combined plan could use its size to negotiate better rates and more comprehensive coverage. The savings could be significant, and the benefits could extend beyond government workers if residents without employer-sponsored insurance were allowed to buy in.

This kind of reform would also simplify labor negotiations. Healthcare would no longer be included in union contracts, freeing both sides to focus on wages and working conditions.

Why It Matters

This idea might be ambitious—or even impractical—but it reflects something deeper the DFL needs to reclaim: the willingness to innovate locally rather than wait for Washington. A coherent, Minnesota-grown healthcare plan could do more than improve coverage; it could remind voters of why they support the DFL.

Tolerance Levels

DFL Rep. Erin Koegel (39A) recently announced she won’t seek reelection, citing a toxic atmosphere where “people are not open to ideas because of the letter behind your name versus the content of the idea.” That exhaustion may explain why Democrats are struggling to rekindle voter enthusiasm.

Currently, the DFL holds more influence in Minnesota than Democrats do nationally. That may be one reason Rep. Ilhan Omar has spent much of the past year campaigning for local candidates — her leverage in Congress has diminished, leaving her more active on the home front.

Now, Latonya Reeves has entered the race under the banner “It’s Time for Change,” setting up a contest that’s likely to reopen the same divisions we saw in the mayoral race. Namely, Ilhan Omar running with support of the Minneapolis DSA, and Latonya Reeves running as a more centrist candidate. The upcoming Senate primary between Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan will likely expose those same rifts as well.

Conclusion

Through this newsletter, we hope to explore the ideas and leadership needed to restore faith in government as a springboard for progress rather than an impediment.

If the DFL can craft clear, forward-looking policies on healthcare, the economy, and public safety, it has a chance to unite voters and drive meaningful change. For now, though, it remains mired in social media outrage, perpetual fundraising, and symbolic gestures that generate noise but little movement.

The Listening Tour offers a chance to reset that conversation — and we’ll be listening closely.

Brief Summary

The politics we’re seeing now will continue for another four years. The question is whether the results change, and Minneapolis experiences less crime, more investment, and a broader group of people reaping the benefits of our economy.

Prediction Review

We did well in our pre-election predictions — correctly calling the mayoral race and 9 of 13 City Council contests. Here’s where we missed, and what those results tell us about the city’s political mood.

Ward 2

Robin Wonsley won with 3,825 first-choice votes, capturing 55% of ballots cast. She outperformed our expectations by turning out more student voters than we anticipated. A proud DSA member, Wonsley is expected to continue championing policies such as municipal grocery stores, stronger renter protections, and a reduced reliance on traditional policing.

Ward 5

Pearll Warren prevailed in round three with 2,437 votes (48.4%). This race was one of the toughest to predict, given its crowded field. In the end, Jeremiah Ellison’s decision to endorse Ethropic Burnett — while leaving the ward for an art program out east — may have backfired. Voters might have seen Warren as a fresh start after what some viewed as years of neglect. She’s new to the council; you can learn more about her in our interview, available here (link).

Ward 8

Soren Stevenson won decisively with 6,685 first-choice votes (55%). Stevenson’s name recognition from his 2023 run, combined with his disciplined, grassroots campaign, paid off. As both the DFL-endorsed and DSA candidate, he was a comfortable fit for the ward’s progressive base. His opponent, Josh Bassais, mounted a credible challenge and raised his profile for future races, but we underestimated Stevenson’s organizational strength. Stevenson is new to the council; listen to our interview available here (link).

Ward 10

Aisha Chughtai secured 6,358 first-choice votes (56%), defeating a formidable challenger, Lydia Millard. Chughtai remains an outspoken critic of Mayor Frey and a consistent advocate for immigrant rights and renter protections — priorities that resonate in a ward where roughly 80% of residents are renters.

2026 Outlook

Mayor Jacob Frey leaned heavily on support from Southwest Minneapolis to secure 50.3% of the vote in the second round of counting. Wards 3 (Rainville), 7 (Shaffer), and 13 (Palmisano) form the core of his base, with Ward 11 (Whiting) also playing a key role. These wards generate high voter turnout and campaign donations — a gauntlet every successful citywide candidate must pass through.

A map showing Frey’s support in tan and Fateh’s in green illustrates the city’s political divide: a familiar pattern between the progressive urban core and the more moderate southwest.

It may be too soon to say whether Frey will have greater latitude to advance his agenda after this election. Although the City Council has lost its veto-override power, the overall sentiment and direction of city governance will likely remain similar to the past two years.

Council Coalitions

Left of Frey (6 votes):

* Ward 1 – Payne

* Ward 2 – Wonsley

* Ward 8 – Stevenson (new)

* Ward 9 – Chavez

* Ward 10 – Chughtai

* Ward 12 – Chowdhury

All six campaigned for someone other than Frey for mayor.

Aligned with Frey (5 votes):

* Ward 3 – Rainville

* Ward 4 – Vetaw

* Ward 5 – Warren (new)

* Ward 7 – Shaffer (new)

* Ward 13 – Palmisano

Swing Votes:

* Ward 6 – Osman. Though he endorsed and campaigned for Omar Fateh, Osman’s alignment tends to shift by issue.

* Ward 11 – Whiting (new). While Whiting appears more likely to side with the Frey coalition, he also seems inclined to take each issue independently. Watch our interview, available here (link).

Conclusion

The first test of the new council may come early in 2026 when they choose a Council President. This position is crucial to how the body functions: the president sets the tone for meetings, assigns committee chairs, and even decides who sits where on the dais.

The current president, Elliott Payne, replaced Andrea Jenkins at the start of the 2024 term, signaling a shift to a more left-leaning majority. Payne has been outspoken in his opposition to the strong-mayor system and insists the council is a coequal branch of government.

If Palmisano, Rainville, or Vetaw were to seek the presidency, the lines of alignment would become clear. Should either Osman or Whiting side with Payne, he retains the position; if both back a challenger, the presidency flips. That 7–6 balance could define the council’s next four years, with close votes determining much of the city’s direction.

We hope this forecast proves too cynical. It would be good for Minneapolis if the heated rhetoric of the campaign season gave way to collaboration and a shared focus on progress — a sentiment every candidate claimed on the trail. Their challenge now is to show that they can lead together and address the city’s complex problems with seriousness and empathy.

Consider this: Omar Fateh received 65,377 votes after the final round of counting — 44.37% of the total. Around the same time, the city allocated $150,000 to local food shelves to offset a shortfall in federal SNAP funding caused by the government shutdown. According to the city, more than 60,000 Minneapolis residents — roughly 14% of the population — rely on those benefits each month. Nearly the same number of people voted for Fateh.

That parallel underscores a defining truth about Minneapolis: the top 15% and bottom 15% of residents often experience two very different cities. We hope that, over the next four years, the mayor and council will focus less on factional divides and more on what unites those two worlds — a shared interest in a city that works for everyone.

Across the river in St. Paul, State Rep. Kaoly Her stunned Mayor Melvin Carter with a come-from-behind victory. Reflecting on how she won, Her said, “I’m all for boldness, but you have to make sure it makes sense.”

That’s a sentiment we share. As Minneapolis begins a new political chapter, we’ll be watching to see whether the give-and-take required for bold, sensible action can take hold between the mayor and the new council.

Introduction

Election Day is tomorrow — Tuesday, November 4, 2025.What follows are our predictions, drawn from close observation over the past year and the surveys we’ve conducted. These are not endorsements, but simply our best attempt to forecast the outcomes.

If you’re still finalizing your choices, we encourage you to revisit our many candidate interviews — available on the Better Minneapolis YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify.

Mayor

Prediction: Jacob Frey wins.Confidence level: 70 out of 100.

1) Our survey of 122 respondents across multiple platforms shows Frey with a commanding lead among voters over 55. More tellingly, he breaks even with renters and dominates among homeowners.

2) The strategy to rank Fateh, Hampton, and Davis as a group is not being followed consistently. About half of voters who support Hampton or Davis also rank Frey somewhere on their ballot.

3) When Frey is removed from the polling model, Davis leads — suggesting that Hampton’s supporters prefer Davis over Fateh.

4) On Polymarket, an online prediction platform where over $1.1 million has been wagered on this race, Frey holds a 76% chance of winning. That figure has remained steady for the past week. The low point in the last month came on October 25, when Frey stood at 64% and Fateh at 37%. Fateh has since dropped to 24%. The theory behind prediction markets is that participants, willing to stake real money, tend to base their decisions on data rather than ideology.

5) Fateh has stumbled in the final days of the campaign. His performance in the Star Tribune/MPR debate weakened his standing, and his decision to skip a Star Tribune interview reinforced perceptions that he engages primarily with those who agree with him.

6) Finally, many of the negative attacks on Frey have not been paired with a compelling alternative vision for the city. The critique is clear, but the path forward from his opponents has been less so.

Ward 1

Prediction: Elliott Payne wins.Confidence level: 95 out of 100.

This race has generated little commentary or public polling. As the incumbent, Payne appears to enjoy steady support, and we’ve seen no clear signs of dissatisfaction within the ward.

Ward 2

Prediction: Shelley Madore wins.Confidence level: 55 out of 100.

While unseating an incumbent is always difficult, Madore brings strong credentials that could resonate with voters in this historically low-turnout ward. Her campaign has been active and visible, and the relatively small number of votes required to win gives her a realistic path to victory.

Early voting remains low — only Wards 4, 5, and 9 have seen fewer ballots cast. The League of Women Voters Ward 2 forum, held on campus, drew little student turnout, highlighting limited engagement among younger voters. Student candidate Max Theroux has shown potential but is unlikely to generate the level of enthusiasm needed to shift the outcome.

Ward 3

Prediction: Michael Rainville wins.Confidence level: 95 out of 100.

Rainville remains well-regarded in his ward and faces limited opposition. His challenger, Marcus Mills, has not mounted a campaign strong enough to pose a serious challenge.

Ward 4

Prediction: LaTrisha Vetaw wins.Confidence level: 95 out of 100.

An ally of Michael Rainville, Vetaw remains a strong and visible voice for her ward. There are no clear signs that her re-election is at risk; challengers Marvina Haynes and Leslie Davis have not mounted campaigns with significant traction.

Ward 5

Prediction: Ethrophic Burnett wins.Confidence level: 30 out of 100.

Burnett, a former city employee who worked on the Neighborhood Safety team, benefits from her connections within City Hall and the endorsement of outgoing incumbent Jeremiah Ellison — factors that could help her edge out the field.

Meanwhile, Pearll Warren and Miles Wilson appear to be competing for the more moderate share of the vote. Three additional candidates — Anndrea Young, Maurice Ward, and Jovan Northington — make this the most unpredictable race of the cycle, with no clear front-runner emerging.

Ward 6

Prediction: Jamal Osman wins.Confidence level: 95 out of 100.

Despite controversy surrounding his wife’s now-closed nonprofit, Osman appears to have retained strong support within the ward. His mutual endorsement with state senator Omar Fateh strengthens his standing among Somali residents, who make up a significant portion of the electorate. Challenger Mohamoud Hassan has not generated the visibility or momentum needed to seriously challenge the incumbent.

Ward 7

Prediction: Elizabeth Shaffer wins.Confidence level: 50 out of 100.

Shaffer has mounted an organized and disciplined campaign against incumbent Katie Cashman. Her prior service on the Park Board has bolstered her reputation as an experienced, capable candidate.

While Cashman holds a long list of endorsements, enthusiasm among her critics appears unusually strong. Her narrow victory in the previous election suggested potential vulnerability, and her campaign’s recent fundraising plea for $2,000 to print additional flyers underscores limited financial momentum in the final stretch.

Ward 8

Prediction: Josh Bassais wins.Confidence level: 65 out of 100.

Bassais has gained steady ground on his main opponent, Soren Stevenson, over the course of the campaign. After a somewhat rocky start, he has demonstrated the organization, temperament, and appeal needed to attract voters outside the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) base, who support Stevenson.

A key factor will be the second-choice votes of Bob Sullentrop, who is expected to capture between 5–10% of the vote, similar to his showing in the previous election. Bassais also benefits from the endorsement of incumbent Andrea Jenkins, who remains well-regarded in the ward. These dynamics point to a narrow but likely win for Bassais.

Ward 9

Prediction: Jason Chavez wins.Confidence level: 75 out of 100.

Chavez’s name recognition and campaign organization give him a strong advantage as the incumbent. While he faces notable opposition from some ward residents, challenger Dan Orban has struggled to build visibility or fundraising momentum sufficient to pose a serious threat.

Ward 10

Prediction: Lydia Millard wins.Confidence level: 40 out of 100.

Millard has run an energetic, well-organized campaign aimed at reaching voters across the ward. Her main opponent, incumbent Aisha Chughtai, has been less visible and appears to be concentrating her efforts on anti-Frey and pro-renter groups, with limited outreach beyond those circles.

Frustration over ongoing challenges in Uptown has mobilized many residents behind Millard, and that grassroots energy could supply the votes she needs for a narrow win. The third candidate, DeShanneon Grimes, remains a wildcard — likely to receive less than 5% of the vote, but her supporters’ second-choice rankings could prove decisive in a close race.

Ward 11

Prediction: Jamison Whiting wins.Confidence level: 85 out of 100.

Whiting entered the race early and appeared to solidify his position following the ward convention. His two challengers, Mariam DeMello and Jim Meyer, have mounted credible campaigns but continue to trail in visibility and organization. While they may narrow the margin, Whiting’s steady presence and early momentum make him the likely winner.

Ward 12

Prediction: Aurin Chowdhury wins.Confidence level: 85 out of 100.

Chowdhury, a popular incumbent, built on the strong foundation of her 2023 campaign with another well-organized effort this year. Her two challengers, Becka Thompson and Edward Bear Stops, have struggled to match her visibility and fundraising strength. Chowdhury has raised nearly four times as much as Thompson and appears poised for an easy re-election.

Ward 13

Prediction: Linea Palmisano wins.Confidence level: 100 out of 100.

Palmisano faces no serious competition in this race and continues to meet the expectations of her ward.

Conclusion

We welcome feedback on these predictions and acknowledge that they are based on limited data and observation. Still, the results of this election will likely shift the balance on the City Council. If our projections hold, Mayor Frey can expect roughly seven consistently supportive votes, two occasional allies, and four members who will regularly oppose his agenda.

Momentum for DSA-aligned candidates appeared to peak around the Minneapolis DFL convention in July and held steady through mid-October. While those candidates continue to benefit from passionate grassroots support, their appeal remains concentrated within a narrower base. In the final weeks of the campaign, more moderate candidates have gained broader name recognition and strengthened their footing citywide.

We chose not to make predictions in other races, as we do not feel we have a clear enough grasp of their dynamics. However, if the momentum has shifted as we believe, incumbents and more mainstream candidates are likely to perform well. For readers looking to understand the broader field, the Minneapolis Times list of candidates offers a helpful overview of each candidate’s general political alignment.

Brief Summary

Commissioner Meg Forney centers her re-election message on equity and accessibility, restoring the city’s tree canopy, and diversifying park funding beyond property taxes. She highlights expanding public access to water through North Side riverfront projects, activating parks like the new Graco “River Hub,” and major investments in North Commons Park. Forney contrasts Minneapolis’s well-programmed parks with other systems’ passive spaces, calls for fairer state funding, and praises local partnerships that keep parks safe and encampment-free. She closes by urging full voter participation and endorsing educator Averi M. Turner as a needed new voice on the board.

The At-Large Race

This race is somewhat unique as there are eight candidates for three spots. It’s essential to rank the top three candidates. Here is a list with a brief description of each. Marty Carlson at the Hill & Lake Press has done a more extensive write-up on all the park board races.

* Matthew Dowgwillo: A tech strategist and parent advocate focused on data-driven park policies, community engagement, and better online access.

* Meg Forney: A longtime Park Board commissioner and former president emphasizing accessibility, environmental stewardship, and diversified funding to ease taxes.

* Amber Frederick: A YMCA youth specialist and labor advocate prioritizing inclusion, investment in green spaces, and community partnerships.

* Mary McKelvey: A teacher and coach championing kids, equity, and environmental justice through collaborative, “smart” park partnerships.

* Tom Olsen: An incumbent commissioner promoting pedestrian-friendly parkways, equity, and reforming park liquor-use rules for responsible enjoyment.

* Adam Schneider: A sustainability organizer focused on climate justice, youth programs, and supporting workers and neighborhood vitality.

* Averi M. Turner: An educator and equity advocate aiming to expand cultural representation, youth career pathways, and community-led park design.

* Michael Wilson: A parks professional and environmental organizer emphasizing youth, labor rights, and equitable access to safe, sustainable parks.

Interview Summary

In her interview on the Better Minneapolis podcast, longtime Park Board Commissioner Meg Forney spoke about her passion for the city’s parks, her 12 years of service, and the priorities driving her re-election campaign. Forney explained that stepping down as board president allowed her to focus more deeply on three key goals she calls her “three-legged stool”: advancing equity and accessibility, expanding the city’s tree canopy, and diversifying park funding sources so the system relies less heavily on residential taxpayers.

Forney emphasized that true equity in the park system means ensuring public access to water and green space for all residents—particularly in neighborhoods that have been historically excluded. She contrasted Minneapolis’s open, publicly accessible lakes with the limited access around private lakes like Minnetonka, using maps and graphics to show how public access helps distribute both property values and quality of life more equitably. Forney described ongoing efforts to extend this accessibility to the city’s riverfront, especially in North and Northeast Minneapolis, where industrial development long blocked residents from the Mississippi River. Projects like “Above the Falls” aim to reclaim riverfront land for community use, creating connected walking and biking trails.

The conversation also explored Minneapolis’s national park rankings, where the city consistently scores among the top three systems in the U.S. but lags behind Washington, D.C. on equity metrics. Forney argued that Minneapolis deserves higher marks because its parks are “activated” with programming, maintenance, and youth engagement, unlike D.C.’s largely passive park spaces. She highlighted new facilities such as the Graco “River Hub,” which includes a Sparked Studio for youth digital learning, and discussed major investments in North Commons Park—one of the largest single-park projects in city history—serving a community with high youth populations and long-standing disparities.

Turning to funding and sustainability, Forney detailed efforts to establish new revenue sources, including a stormwater utility fee, dedicated funding for parkways, and a long-term endowment managed by the Minneapolis Parks Foundation. She noted that over 80% of the park budget currently comes from local taxpayers, which she considers unsustainable. Forney also pressed for greater state and federal support, arguing that Minneapolis is underfunded relative to its economic contribution to Minnesota. She described creative funding ideas, such as seeking compensation for park-owned land under the airport, and credited legislators like Bobby Joe Champion and Scott Dibble for beginning to address systemic funding shortfalls.

Finally, Forney reflected on her deep connection to the park system, tracing her advocacy back to 1976 when Dutch elm disease destroyed trees near her first home. She praised the city’s collaborative park police and outreach staff for maintaining safety and compassion in parks, noting the absence of encampments since 2020. As the interview closed, she urged voters to “turn over their ballots” to vote in the At-large Park Board race. She voiced strong support for fellow candidate Averi M. Turner, a young educator bringing an underrepresented voice to the board. Forney ended by reaffirming her belief that Minneapolis is “a city inside a park,” and that its parks remain central to the city’s identity, livability, and collective future.

Introduction

It may seem unusual for Better Minneapolis to interview Christina Baldwin, artistic director of the Jungle Theater, and Rachel Murch-D’Olimpio, managing director. We’re not stepping into the theater review business, but we wanted to hear directly from them about how recovery is progressing four years after COVID. The city lifted its mask mandate on July 1, 2021, but the return to normal has been uneven.

While much has improved, small businesses and arts organizations continue to struggle. Audiences haven’t returned in the same numbers, whether due to lingering perceptions about safety, construction, or the simple reality of tighter household budgets. For theaters like the Jungle, that means producing fewer shows each season. And that reduction ripples outward — affecting the performers, stagehands, and designers whose livelihoods depend on steady work. The Jungle employs 100 union workers each year. When ticket sales dip, so do opportunities.

Many of these businesses are in a difficult position. They recognize the challenges — crime, addiction, and instability — but speaking too loudly about them risks driving away the very customers they need to survive. That’s why swift, visible action from the city is crucial to their survival. If these businesses fail, the jobs go with them, and the neighborhood’s recovery becomes even harder.

It’s the restaurants, bars, fitness studios, and cultural venues that give Minneapolis its vibrancy. They create jobs and community life, but they also depend on the city delivering basic services. When city services fall short, small businesses pay the price — fighting not just for customers’ attention, but against construction, graffiti, and safety worries, all while struggling to keep the lights on.

This week brings some long-awaited relief: the Hennepin Avenue construction officially wraps up Friday. Many nearby businesses are holding their breath, hoping patrons will return. Lyndale Avenue is next in line for disruption, and some businesses are already closing or relocating in anticipation.

So now is a good time for a night out. Forget the campaign noise for an evening — catch a show, support local restaurants, and help keep Minneapolis’s creative spirit alive. The Cherry Orchard has been extended through November 9 at the Jungle Theater.

Conversation Summary

Setting the Stage in Uptown

At the Jungle Theater in the Lyn-Lake area, artistic director Christina Baldwin and managing director Rachel Murch are keeping Minneapolis’s creative heartbeat strong — even as the neighborhood around them changes. The Jungle, once a bar with more 911 calls than any other in the city, has evolved into a small but mighty cultural anchor since its 1999 opening. With 150 seats and a reputation for craftsmanship and intimacy, it stands as both a neighborhood fixture and a reminder of what community-centered art can accomplish when supported.

A Theater Rebuilding After Upheaval

Like nearly every performing arts organization, the Jungle was hit hard by the pandemic and the aftermath of the 2020 unrest. Audiences are returning — slowly and differently. Many patrons are new, drawn by the theater’s “pay as you are” ticket model, which makes live performance as accessible as a movie night. Yet Baldwin and Murch see the long-term challenge clearly: funding structures have shifted, the arts workforce is still rebuilding, and the pandemic’s economic scars continue to affect both artists and audiences.

Construction, Confusion, and Communication

For the Jungle, the next big act is survival through construction. The upcoming Lyndale Avenue reconstruction — following the prolonged disruption on Hennepin — looms large. Murch described watching neighboring businesses close in anticipation, knowing how easily unclear or inconsistent updates can drive people away. What the theater needs most, she said, is reliable communication from the city and county about schedules, closures, and access. Without it, even loyal theatergoers may decide it’s simply easier to stay home.

Changing the Narrative About Uptown

Beyond construction, both say Uptown’s reputation has become another barrier. While the area is safe and welcoming, perceptions fueled by media coverage and social media have made some visitors hesitant. News footage of incidents often includes the Jungle’s sign in the background — inadvertently linking the theater to stories about crime or decline. “We’re caught between perception and reality,” Baldwin said, calling for a new, coordinated narrative from city leaders that highlights Uptown’s resilience, creativity, and small business community.

Finding a Common Voice

As Baldwin put it, “Our whole business is communication — and that’s what the city needs more of.” She and Murch hope that upcoming efforts like the Urban Land Institute’s technical assistance program and potential business improvement districts proposed by the Uptown Association can help unify fragmented voices. For now, the Jungle Theater continues to do what it does best: create connection through storytelling, even when City Hall and county offices struggle to do the same. In a neighborhood too often defined by what has been lost, the Jungle Theater stands as a reminder that a shared vision — and clear communication — are what help a city grow back stronger.

Happy Hour is this Thursday, October 30, 4:30 to 6:30.

Introduction

If you watched the documentary Precarious State, you saw Jim Rubin, a longtime Minneapolis apartment owner, featured. Our decision to interview him isn’t an endorsement of the film or his views. It’s part of our ongoing effort to make Better Minneapolis a forum for open, sometimes uncomfortable conversations that move the city toward better solutions. What follows is one of those conversations.

Hosting this interview challenged us for several reasons. After a friend passed along his number and told us Jim wanted to come on the show, my editor and I deliberated over the pros and cons for half a day before calling him. We walked the dog. We wondered if Better Minneapolis might be seen as siding with the landlords some say are trying to run the city.

Jim convinced us on that first call by saying we could ask him anything. Nothing was off limits—not even our misgivings. We told him we weren’t entirely comfortable with the ending of Precarious State, which claims the “new normal” in Minneapolis is gang warfare and shootouts in the streets. Jim said, “Go ahead and ask me about it,” so we did.

The documentary was controversial, and Jim became the target of personal attacks—most notably from the PAC Minneapolis for the Many. We hesitated to risk Better Minneapolis becoming a target of similar vehemence. Jim later fought back against their statements, and the group has since issued a public apology.

In the end, we decided that avoiding the conversation would make us guilty of the same behavior that troubles us most about today’s political climate—where people only listen to those they already agree with. It’s one of the reasons we were grateful to Council President Elliott Payne for agreeing to an interview. We know he disagrees with much of what we write in this newsletter, and yet he still chose to participate.

The reality is that most of Minneapolis’s housing is provided by private businesses. When politicians turn their backs on people like Jim Rubin, they deny that reality in ways that can weaken the city’s housing ecosystem. If the goal is to create more affordable housing, it’s illogical to ignore those already providing much of it—if only to understand the challenges any public solution will face. Even if you believe housing is a human right that should ultimately be provided by government, it still makes sense to learn how housing is built and operated today from the people doing that work.

This morning, we woke earlier than usual, preoccupied with how to frame this interview. A New York Times article about the recent Mamdani rally in Queens helped crystallize it for us:

For his part, Mr. Mamdani has tried to signal that he recognizes the importance of making good on his big promises, even if it involves expanding his ideological tent.

‘The most important thing is delivering,’ he said in an interview on The New Yorker podcast. ‘If that is your framework, then you have to be willing to listen to everyone who can bring you closer to that.’”

If politicians who champion affordable housing are truly focused on delivering it, they would be well served to listen to the Jim Rubins of the world. Otherwise, their rhetoric risks becoming little more than virtue signaling—an attempt to win votes by creating divides rather than solving problems.

Even if the state, county, and city were to deliver a windfall of funding tomorrow, bringing new housing projects to fruition would still take five to ten years. Ignoring those with experience in the field only increases the likelihood of cost overruns, delays, and disappointing outcomes.

We recently invited Tane Danger to host the podcast. As part of his “Sketches of Minnesota” project, he’s heard a wide range of opinions from across the state. It struck us as true when he described people as having a “constellation” of beliefs—meaning that most of us hold views scattered across the political spectrum. We agree with some ideas from the left, some from the middle, and some from the right. Few of us fit neatly into a single camp, and that diversity of thought not only makes life more interesting, it often leads to better solutions. It forces us to think more carefully about where we agree and where we don’t.

Having those difficult conversations often reveals that we share more common ground than we assume—certainly more than social media would have us believe. Online, outrage is rewarded and conflict is amplified. If the Democratic Party is to succeed in “expanding the ideological tent,” it will be because its leaders, pundits, and activists begin listening to a broader range of voices—even those with whom they disagree.

We’ll admit, we never completely overcame our nerves about this interview. We still felt it was important to be clear that it wasn’t sponsored by Jim, the Multi-Housing Association, or any PAC. Better Minneapolis remains entirely funded by readers. If you value the kind of open, honest conversations we’re trying to foster, we hope you’ll consider becoming a subscriber.

Our Happy Hour for paid subscribers is this Thursday, October 30th, from 4:30 to 6:30.

You can find all of our interviews in the archives or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube.

If you’d like to help expand the work we’re doing—and prefer to donate through a nonprofit—we’ve established a fiscal sponsorship with the Local Media Foundation. The project, called Minneapolis Food for Thought, aims to increase civic engagement by creating stories about local businesses, leaders, and residents.

You can learn more about the project and make a tax-deductible donation here: mplsfoodforthought.org/donate

Here are the key takeaways, distilled for readers.

Why Rubin’s in the spotlight

Rubin has spent 30+ years owning and managing largely affordable apartments, most of them in Minneapolis. That work put him, as he describes it, “in the eye of the storm” when neighborhood conditions deteriorated. Filmmaker Rick Kupchella saw Rubin’s portfolio and proximity as a useful case study; Rubin saw a chance to make chronic issues visible beyond City Hall hearing rooms.

The “new normal” debate

Rubin’s most forceful claim is that certain blocks—he cites 19th & Nicollet—have endured a five-year run of open-air drug dealing, periodic gunfire, and the slow hollowing-out of nearby businesses. He’s careful to note this isn’t everyone’s Minneapolis, but argues it’s real and persistent in specific hot spots. In his view, slimmed-down police staffing and the loss of low-level enforcement tools have left “livability” problems to fester until they occasionally escalate into violence.

Leadership and MPD

On city leadership, Rubin draws a distinction: he credits Chief Brian O’Hara (and, broadly, Mayor Jacob Frey) with trying to rebuild MPD and points to improving trends in headline crimes and officer recruitment. He’s more critical of the City Council, citing funding decisions he believes undercut public safety efforts. Readers may not agree with every diagnosis here, but the through-line is consistent: day-to-day quality of life needs sustained attention, not just reactive response after major incidents.

Policy fights and perceptions

Rubin also addresses political heat aimed at him after the film, including a dispute that ended with a public apology from an opposing group. On housing policy, he argues that broad-brush narratives about “bad landlords” invite overcorrections that burden responsible operators alongside negligent ones. He’s skeptical of TOPA (Tenant Opportunity to Purchase), local rent stabilization, and a new tiered licensing escalation to the Council—seeing them as costly, cumbersome, or poorly targeted. He adds that big national firms can absorb new rules more easily than smaller local owners, a design flaw policymakers should keep in mind.

What would actually add affordability?

Rubin’s answer is straightforward: build more homes. New supply, he argues, eases pressure all the way down the market, even if brand-new units aren’t “affordable” on day one. To unlock building, he calls for basics—safety, predictable rules, and a development climate that signals confidence rather than caution. If property values go down but spending doesn’t, someone else ends up paying the price.

Bottom line: Whether you share Rubin’s prescriptions or not, the interview underscores a civic task we all own: restore safety in persistent hot spots, welcome real stakeholder input on housing rules, and make it easier—not harder—to build homes in the city we love. And as Rubin reminded listeners, leadership choices are on the ballot. Research the candidates. Then vote.

For today’s Better Minneapolis podcast, Tane Danger joins us as moderator for a wide-ranging conversation about what we’ve learned from a year of interviews and newsletters. Tane is co-founder of Danger Boat Productions, creators of Sketches of Minnesota — a traveling improv troupe that listens to communities across the state, turns their stories into sketches, and uses humor to bridge civic divides. He’s also no stranger to politics, having recently moderated a Minneapolis mayoral debate.

Editor’s note: In the conversation, Terry White mistakenly referenced the At-Large Park Board race while discussing ranked-choice voting. He meant the Board of Estimate & Taxation (BET). For context, the At-Large Park Board race actually has 8 candidates for 3 seats.

On Tuesday, we’ll air a conversation with Jim Rubin, a rental property owner and central figure in The Precarious State. He’ll address feedback on the documentary and provide a deeper look at housing in Minneapolis.

As election season enters its final week, now’s an excellent time to become a paid subscriber — your support helps us continue the kind of thoughtful local journalism that connects our city.

And if you’re already a subscriber, we hope to see you at our Happy Hour on Thursday, October 30 — a chance to gather, reflect, and toast to the stories that keep Minneapolis talking.

There are many candidates we have yet to interview. Please email us — soon — if you’d like to join us before election day.

Conversation Summary

This episode of Better Minneapolis turns the tables, with improv artist and civic moderator Tane Danger interviewing newsletter founder Terry White about his motivations and insights from running the project. Terry began Better Minneapolis after his own city council campaign in 2023, hoping to stay civically engaged and give residents better access to local issues. He reflected on how door-to-door campaigning revealed widespread confusion about ranked-choice voting and how many voters are focused on hyperlocal concerns—crime, encampments, and neighborhood conditions—more than big-picture policy. The experience convinced him that thoughtful, accessible local coverage could help close the information gap between government and residents.

From there, Tane and Terry discussed how Better Minneapolis has evolved into a platform for long-form civic conversations that allow candidates and community members to go deeper than they can in traditional forums. Both critiqued the “soundbite” nature of candidate debates, where strict time limits and a lack of follow-up questions leave voters with little substance. In contrast, Terry’s interviews and Tane’s community work through Sketches of Minnesota aim to foster real understanding. They agreed that listening authentically, without the goal of arguing or scoring points, is the key to rebuilding trust across political and neighborhood lines.

The conversation closed with a focus on the future—of Better Minneapolis, of local democracy, and of civic culture in the Twin Cities. Terry hopes to expand coverage to include Hennepin County, where major policy and budget decisions often fly under the radar. Both guests emphasized the need for empathy and curiosity in political life: asking candidates why they’re running, what their vision is, and how they differ from their opponents—while remembering to be kind to one another through it all. As Tane put it, we’re neighbors first, and democracy works best when we treat each other that way.

Minneapolis City Council President Elliott Payne joined Better Minneapolis to discuss how his background in engineering and public innovation shapes his approach to governing. From expanding the city’s Behavioral Crisis Response program to strengthening oversight and reform in public safety, Payne outlined his focus on professional management and data-driven accountability. He spoke candidly about housing affordability, sustainable city revenue, and the challenge of balancing market forces with community well-being. Guided by transparency and empathy, Payne sees Minneapolis as a proving ground for policies that can model justice and effectiveness for cities nationwide.

For information about Elliott Payne visit his website:

https://www.elliottpayne.org/

Background and Path to Public Service

Ward 1 Council Member and Minneapolis City Council President Elliott Payne discussed his journey from Milwaukee to Minneapolis, where he moved in 2000 to study mechanical engineering at the University of Minnesota. After working in manufacturing and operations, Payne transitioned into technology and design consulting, eventually joining the city’s innovation team in 2016. His experience developing community-led public safety programs during and after the murder of George Floyd motivated him to run for office in 2021, driven by frustration with bureaucratic resistance to reform.

Public Safety and Behavioral Crisis Response

Payne highlighted the Behavioral Crisis Response (BCR) program as one of his signature accomplishments, describing it as a critical step toward a “comprehensive public safety system.” The program, which dispatches unarmed mental health professionals to crisis calls, has handled over 35,000 calls since 2021 and now operates citywide, 24/7. Payne explained its recent move into the Fire Department as a way to elevate it to the same level as police and fire services. He envisions BCR eventually becoming a fully staffed city department rather than a contracted service, ensuring stability and accountability.

Oversight, Accountability, and Police Reform

As City Council President and chair of the Audit Committee, Payne emphasized his focus on oversight and professional management within city operations. He described progress in the Neighborhood Safety Department, which had faced lawsuits over contract mismanagement, and credited new leadership and financial controls for improving transparency. Payne supports implementing the federal and state consent decrees to reform policing, developing civilian investigator roles to improve case follow-up, and ensuring public safety policy is guided by data—not ideology.

Housing, Affordability, and Economic Policy

Turning to housing, Payne argued that Minneapolis must pursue policies that balance market realities with human needs. He supports rent stabilization to prevent displacement while acknowledging it is not a comprehensive affordability solution. He advocates for social housing models, significant public investment, and federal stimulus to address the housing crisis. Payne also discussed the city’s need for sustainable revenue streams, noting that Minneapolis is exploring new, equitable ways to raise funds without overburdening property taxpayers.

Vision and Governing Philosophy

Payne described his approach to leadership as accessible, data-driven, and rooted in empathy. He holds open office hours and community sessions each month to remain connected to residents. Philosophically, he sees local government as a catalyst for broader state and federal action, citing Minneapolis’s minimum wage and rideshare driver protections as examples. Payne closed by framing governance as a matter of values and trade-offs—arguing that policymakers must decide, intentionally and transparently, which communities to prioritize in pursuit of a fair and just city.