Better Minneapolis Podcast

Property taxes in Minneapolis have seen double-digit increases year after year, yet city employee salaries are rising as though the local economy is booming. It isn’t. Minneapolis currently has the highest number of distressed commercial loans of any city in the country. According to a recent report by CRED iQ, the distress rate for the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro has reached 55.2 percent.

The risk to residents is that more of these loans could fail, pushing property values down further than they’ve already fallen. Over the next several years, that could mean even larger tax increases to cover the lost revenue. In his August 25 commentary in the Star Tribune, Mayor Frey said he wants “to keep finances stable while not kicking the can down the road,” describing his budget as making “the hard choices now” to get the city through what he called a “two-year ring of fire.” What Frey didn’t mention is that his proposal still raises total spending by about 5.3 percent, according to Ag Cohen of the Minneapolis Times.

The proposed 2027 budget doesn’t make the difficult choices the moment calls for. One of the biggest cost drivers is employee salaries, and not just at the MPD. (We’re redacting employee names in this newsletter. The point isn’t to single out individuals, but to illustrate a frustration many residents share.)

A reader sent me this research after my interview with Tom Olsen, president of the Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board.

Comparing salaries for the same job titles from 2019 to 2025, the reader found increases often well over 100 percent. The top example: an employee with the title “Police Sergeant Parks P” went from $89,631 in 2019 to $206,697 in 2025, an increase of more than 130 percent in six years. A “Police Officer Parks B P” went from $75,199 in 2020 to $158,707 in 2025, up 111 percent in five years. An “Environmental Education Lead P” earned $63,807 in 2019 and $117,115 in 2025, an increase of 83.5 percent.

These are presumably all capable employees doing their jobs well. But ordinary residents and taxpayers in Minneapolis haven’t seen anything close to these salary increases. The reader noted that the examples above are closer to the rule than the exception, and encouraged others to look through the data themselves. That growth deserves a place in the budget conversation, given how much taxpayers have absorbed from local government expansion over the past six years.

We ran our own search on GovSalaries.com and found similar patterns. In 2024, a Police Lieutenant earned $492,117, well above the City Operations Officer’s $318,767. An Assistant City Coordinator for Convention Center operations earned $251,939, which the site put at 431 percent above the city’s average salary and 1,538 percent above the median. Another employee, an Assistant City Coordinator and Chief Finance Officer, earned $228,870 in 2024, up $40,062 (21.2 percent) from 2023 and up $54,138 (31.0 percent) since 2020.

The Ugly Budget Battle Ahead

The budget proposal is being pitched as a fiscally responsible way to steward the city through the next two years. Until we see a report with 2026 data that’s transparent about salary growth over the past five years, we remain skeptical. Closing unfilled positions and shuffling departments are marginal changes that don’t alter the underlying trend of continued growth in city government, a trend being financed by resident property taxes even as a potential financial storm builds offshore.

Good governance calls for strategic scenario planning. What happens if a significant share of those commercial loans default? If city revenue from commercial property keeps falling, what’s the plan? What does the best case look like? Is there any realistic scenario in which residents see their property taxes go down?

As an outside observer, it’s hard to know what to believe. Different camps are projecting their own priorities onto the budget without giving enough weight to the underlying conditions and assumptions driving it. It’s not exciting to think about the yield on the 10-year Treasury, but governing is often unglamorous work. The city needs a government that’s prepared for a sharp rise in interest rates and loan defaults; having a plan in place could be what keeps those risks from materializing.

Watching the various factions defend their predictable positions doesn’t build much confidence. We’d rather see some wonky mathy people dig into the numbers and find a solution that doesn’t keep relying on a heavier tax burden for residents.

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For this interview with Minneapolis Council President Elliott Payne, I visited his new office in City Hall. If you haven’t stopped by since they finished the $30+ million remodel, it’s worth a look. They did a nice job. When I passed through the lobby, there was a couple taking wedding photos and a woman using a keyboard to play the bells ringing atop the building. The marble is polished, the carpets new. It feels like a place where serious governing could happen.

Some readers may have noticed we didn’t put out a newsletter last week. We were busy moving our youngest to Montana State University for his sophomore year. We wore ourselves out loading and unloading furniture, assembling lamps and chairs, and shopping for various necessities. He’ll be living with four roommates, and we’re cautiously optimistic that he’ll attend classes and do the work.

Minneapolis has its share of expensive restaurants, but I think Bozeman has us beat. You won’t find a bison burger for under $24 on Main Street. It’s like eating at the Minnesota State Fair every day! Speaking of the fair, and who isn’t these days, Council Member Payne counts himself a traditionalist who seeks out cheese curds every year. As seems mandatory this time of year, we started our conversation by discussing his experiences at the fair. He recalled walking with Richard Carlbom as the party chair tried to convince people that the DFL is still a big tent, after the endorsement of State Senator Omar Fateh at the DFL city convention was rescinded. Payne saw the reversal as divisive, and it appears the party is still trying to recover. According to Payne, the split is perpetuated largely by campaign staffers and communications people. The recent primary between Flanagan and Craig has now concluded, and we’re hopeful the two factions can move past the divisions generated by a hard-fought campaign.

The main focus of our conversation was housing. At a recent Theater of Public Policy event hosted by Danger Boat Productions, we watched Mayor Frey and Council President Payne discuss their positions on a range of city topics, and we were intrigued by the concept of social housing that Payne raised. It’s a concept with a shifting definition, but it remains a solution for housing affordability favored by many on the left end of the political spectrum. Seattle is experimenting with the idea: people across a range of incomes stay in the same housing complex, each paying a percentage of their income rather than a fixed rent. The city’s first foray into this model is the Elara at the Market apartments in Belltown, where 150 units were purchased by the Seattle Social Housing Developer. The Seattle Times describes the project this way:

Unlike traditional affordable housing, social housing includes tenants at a wide range of income levels in the same buildings. Popular in Europe, the goal is to subsidize more affordable rents for low-income renters, reduce economic segregation, and keep the buildings affordable forever.

Seattle has one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, with the median home price over $850,000. For those first 150 units, the city received more than 10,000 applications. While social housing holds some promise, it’s one tool among many that are needed; demand for affordable housing is far outpacing the current pace of building. Payne likes the concept because it gives local communities more control over housing, rather than leaving them dependent on federal funding.

Whether public or private, housing must be inspected and maintained, which failed to happen at the Heritage Park housing project. Payne and I discuss what occurred there and what still needs to happen to ensure residents are treated with dignity. So far, the city has spent $2.5 million diverted from the Affordable Housing Trust Fund to relocate residents, and the final total remains unknown. A review of what happened is coming, and possibly reforms as a result, but for now Payne is focused on centering the people affected by the housing’s decline.

It’s budget season, and there are many opinions on how close Mayor Frey came to getting it right with his proposal. Council Member Payne and other council members are questioning whether more can be done to trim the Minneapolis Police Department’s budget, which they see as a significant driver of rising costs. To close budget gaps, Frey is proposing the consolidation of some departments, including merging the Human Resources and IT functions of the Minneapolis Parks and Recreation Board with the city’s. The next step in the process is for the Board of Estimate & Taxation to set the maximum property tax levy. Payne sits on this board, as does the mayor, and it will be interesting to see where they land. MPRB President Tom Olsen, whom we interviewed previously, is also a member, and we expect to hear further debate over the difficult choices ahead.

Our conversation concluded with a focus on Payne’s Northeast ward. He highlighted the Central Avenue reconstruction and the push for an Arts District walk. Public Works will need to replace the historic bricks along Quincy Avenue, but it sounded like Payne is working to preserve the neighborhood’s charm and character.

Literary Note

One of my favorite authors, Marlon James, has a new book out called The Disappearers. The New York Times review called it a “masterpiece” and described it as a story of gay experience and murderous homophobia in Jamaica that amounts to “a maximalist’s banquet.” James isn’t for the faint of heart. We discovered him through his Booker Prize–winning A Brief History of Seven Killings. The reviewer, Dwight Garner, has written for the Times for almost three decades, and this book stands out even for him. He expects James to win the Pulitzer Prize at some point. If that praise isn’t enough, maybe it will interest local readers to know Macalester College hired James in 2007 to teach English, and he became a professor emeritus there in 2023. I envy those who got to take one of his classes. In addition to the Man Booker Prize in 2015, he’s received the Minnesota Book Award for Fiction in 2010 and 2015, and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize in 2010.

At over 600 pages, the book will take time, but we’re committed to both starting and finishing it, though we might have to clear the calendar to make it happen.

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At the Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board (MPRB) meeting on Wednesday, August 19, at 5pm, Park Superintendent Al Bangoura will present the recommended 2027-28 budget to the Board of Commissioners. The budget is meant to support the goals and strategies outlined in Parks for All, the MPRB’s comprehensive plan that runs from 2021 through 2036. In my interview with Board President Tom Olsen, he urged residents to tune in for the presentation and make their voices heard. His concern is that if the mayor’s current “placeholder” levy for the parks is passed, it will mean layoffs and service cuts in the park system.

The MPRB budget calls for a 5.86% levy increase, which Olsen describes as a “keep the lights on” budget. Mayor Frey has proposed a 2.5% increase, along with consolidating departments such as HR and payroll between the city and the parks. In its newsletter, the park board said the mayor’s proposal could lead to the layoff of as many as 26 staff members. The newsletter also cites internal data showing that park board HR and IT staff operate at a much lower cost than their city counterparts, meaning any savings from consolidation would likely be minimal.

By contrast, while the mayor has said the city will reduce staff by more than 100 positions, the actual net change for next year is only seven fewer employees. Olsen is one of many people reviewing each line of the mayor’s proposed budget for overspending and waste. As one example, he points to the city assessor’s office, which has a $7 million budget and, he argues, duplicates work the county could handle instead.

There are several reasons to expect this year’s budget negotiations to be tougher than in years past. Chief among them, many city councilors and residents feel the city has done a poor job managing the Minneapolis Police Department’s budget; unaccounted-for overtime has repeatedly been cited as a sign of insufficient budget oversight. Other, more structural challenges exist as well. Economic growth has slowed, commercial vacancies remain high, and tax collections from those properties have fallen. As revenue has declined, city services and costs have continued to rise. Closing that gap will require either meaningful spending cuts or new revenue. According to Mayor Frey’s office, the gap stands at $70 million, and an 11.3% tax levy is needed to help close it. Over the next few months, we plan to examine the range of proposals brought forward to address this shortfall.

Toward the end of the interview, we discussed a few park-specific issues. I asked about the closure of the Minnehaha off-leash dog park, an issue close to many dog owners’ hearts. It’s hard to imagine finding an alternative that captures what made that space special. Olsen asked that dog owners contact the MPRB directly with what mattered most to them about the park.

We also discussed this year’s unusually high number of beach closures. Olsen linked the elevated E. coli levels in city lakes to climate change and goose droppings, but noted that the park board is working with the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District to address the problem.

Interview Summary

Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board President Tom Olsen sat down to walk through this year’s budget fight, which pits the Park Board’s request for a 5.86% levy increase against Mayor Frey’s proposed 2.5%. Olsen explained that the Board’s request is a “keep the lights on” budget driven mostly by fixed costs: cost-of-living raises, rising healthcare expenses, the state’s paid family and medical leave program, and staffing needs for new facilities like North Commons and Upper Harbor Terminal. He pushed back on the mayor’s argument that merging Park Board functions like HR and IT into the city would save money, pointing to internal cost comparisons showing the Board’s in-house teams are cheaper per employee than the city’s, and citing a past ransomware attack as evidence of the value of specialized IT staff. He raised a comparable example in the other direction, the city’s own assessor’s office, which he said duplicates work the county already handles for most other municipalities.

Olsen also situated the local fight within a larger pattern of funding pressure moving downhill from the federal government to states, counties, and cities, arguing that Minneapolis and Hennepin County are absorbing costs that should be covered elsewhere. He pointed to a state fund for regional parks and trails that he says shortchanges Minneapolis relative to what statute calls for, and floated new revenue ideas the Board is exploring, including billboard leases on underused land, a dedicated license plate fund, and a larger initiative still under wraps that would require political capital at the State Capitol. The Board might consider potential long-term uses for land it owns outside Minneapolis, such as Meadowbrook Golf Course, as a way to seed an endowment.

On specific parks, Olsen addressed the closure of Minnehaha Park’s longstanding off-leash dog area, explaining that the original approval skipped required archaeological review and misjudged the property’s boundaries, with cultural and environmental concerns now driving a search for alternative sites. He also discussed a rise in beach closures tied to E. coli, attributing it to climate change, lower water levels, and goose activity, while noting ongoing restoration work with the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District. Looking ahead, the levy fight moves to a public BET hearing in early September, followed by a vote and final approval through the City Council and mayor, with Olsen encouraging residents who value the park system to weigh in during that process.

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The easy part of writing this newsletter is that every week there is something new happening. Political personalities are in regular conflict. Proposals that are sometimes impractical and half-baked are routinely put forward for consideration. And once a year, a budget is submitted by the mayor and county administrator that highlights the competing priorities of those who work in government and those who watch their actions closely. There are many topics we could cover, and some we cover on a more superficial basis than we'd like. Our work is constrained by time and resources. Our goal is to encourage discussion and find ways to make Minneapolis a better place to live, for everyone.

The difficult part of writing this newsletter is that we consume an inordinate amount of social media and “news” as we try to understand the zeitgeist of the city and its residents. It’s unhealthy, and we know it. Judging by the conversations we read, we’re not the only people in the city who spin into a stupor because of it. The number of content creators has grown exponentially, and they’re competing for attention. Often the quickest way to get it is by manufacturing controversy or trying to be the meanest or snarkiest commentator in the room. It turns out you have to be extremely petty and cruel to distinguish yourself in this morass of noise and outrage.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey is a frequent target of this outrage. It doesn’t matter what he does; there will be an unhinged wave of protest and mockery. The great ideal of social media bringing us together has proven false. Now anyone, no matter how unwell or unstable, can start a channel and blast the public with hateful rhetoric. There is always an audience for outrage, conspiracy, and mockery.

The latest attack on Frey, of which we’ve seen numerous versions, is over his dancing at the Black Entrepreneurial State Fair. Online commentators have been all over it, and it’s even shown up in national news outlets. What we find telling is the contrast: the NY Post refers to him as “leftist Mayor Frey,” while local commentators call him an “authoritarian” and a “fascist,” language usually reserved for describing Trump. It’s an impossible gauntlet we’ve created for politicians. We want them to be “authentic,” yet if they do anything that resembles spontaneity, they’re skewered for it.

What got lost in this latest fit of mockery is that Frey was promoting exactly what many on the left say they want more of: Black opportunity and Black-owned businesses. Whoever the mayor is, you want them to be the city’s biggest advocate. You want a mayor who loves the city and spends every day promoting it across the country. While those with Frey Derangement Syndrome are busy attacking him, the city and region are falling behind. They act as though attracting jobs and people to the area isn’t important. It is.

There is serious work to be done if Minneapolis is going to avoid a downward spiral. We are growing at less than the national average. A report from GreaterMSP on our economic vitality shows that if we had kept pace with the national average, each household would be earning an additional $9,000 a year. A few findings deserve attention:

* Workers earning a family-sustaining wage: ranked 36th out of the top 50 metros

* 8th grade students achieving math standards: 21% of Black students, 20% of Hispanic students

* Median cost of childcare: $20,592, ranked 39th

* New business establishments per 1,000 residents: ranked 43rd

* Yearly job growth: 0.6%, ranked 35th

* Top-tier corporate tax rate: 9.8%, ranked 50th of 50

The Portland Paradigm

Friday, we spoke with Andrew Hoan, president of the Portland Chamber of Commerce. Like Minneapolis, Portland has a tremendous amount going for it, especially if you enjoy parks and the outdoors. At the same time, the city is struggling on several fronts, including commercial vacancies and new business creation. Portland has gone from being a high-flying economic engine to one that will require an enormous amount of hustle to bring back. The lesson Hoan tried to impart was that a city can’t rely on what it once was. It has to adapt to current circumstances, and it has to work hard to stay competitive.

Lampooning leaders has its place. We enjoy the way Colin Jost portrays Pete Hegseth. By taking on the job of mayor, Jacob Frey made himself a legitimate target for criticism. But the relentless attacks tend toward the personal, and they seem to be a distraction from what must be the overarching goal: moving the city forward. Minneapolis must establish its identity. It can’t be known for anarchy and strife if it wants to attract businesses and start growing again. Household budgets are down $9,000 because of our lack of focus. For a few households, that money won’t be noticed, but for the rest of us, it translates into childcare, groceries, housing, and transportation. It means part-time jobs becoming full-time. It means being able to find a job in the first place. Those jobs pay the taxes that fund public housing and substance abuse treatment. They fund our parks and schools and keep the lakes clean.

Post what you will, but ask yourself: is what you’re doing helping the city? We need Black entrepreneurs. We need a variety of people willing to take risks on the city and this community. If what you’re posting is motivated by a genuine desire to see Minneapolis thrive, we support you. Otherwise, go to the fair, or a restaurant, or the park.

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Like many readers, we’ve been assessing what Peggy Flanagan’s decisive victory over Angie Craig portends for the future of politics in Minnesota. A 20-point margin across the entire state defied conventional wisdom, which held that Flanagan would win young voters in the Twin Cities while Craig’s more practical message and record would carry outstate. Instead, Flanagan outperformed everywhere. One 19-year-old told us days before the election that Flanagan would win. When asked why, his answer was simple: “Israel.”

Lessons Learned

1. Immigration

Voting for the Laken Riley Act was a mistake Craig was unable to explain away. The vote tied her to Trump and to the trauma inflicted by Operation Metro Surge. People protested her events over it, and when she appeared before media, they asked her repeatedly to account for the vote. The race would have been much closer had she voted against the act. Flanagan used the issue like a dagger, cutting through any explanation Craig offered.

2. Bold Positions Are No Longer Intimidating

Conventional campaign wisdom held that Craig’s more centrist views would play better outstate. It now appears that even Democrats outside the Twin Cities are willing to risk a U.S. Senate seat to elect someone they see as more of an antagonist to Trump and the status quo. The level of frustration in the state runs deeper than mainstream Democratic consultants understood. Rather than timid progress on quality-of-life issues like health care, voters want bold change. Craig helped lower the cost of insulin, a real achievement, but one with limited impact on the overall market. Advocating for Medicare for All, even without a clear account of how it would work, signals the kind of major change voters are looking for.

3. Politicians Must Build Community Like Church Leaders

The DFL Party as an organization remains a vehicle for community and belonging. The party may not resemble what it was ten years ago, but like a church with a new pastor, people keep showing up for service. The Craig campaign skipped the state convention, and more importantly, it failed to grasp the importance of the camaraderie that an authentic, door-knocking, picnicking, socially engaged campaign offers, especially to younger volunteers with the time and confidence to take to the streets and social media. Craig’s campaign recalled Andrew Cuomo’s run for New York mayor: well-funded, especially by outside groups and establishment Democrats, but lacking enthusiasm in the trenches. When a consultant walks into a room full of donors with a data presentation on how the campaign can win, they drown out the voices of the many people willing to donate hours of their lives simply because they like the candidate. No amount of money replaces the neighborhood text chain, the park barbecue, or the personal social media post shared by a voter who feels compelled to get involved.

4. Do Not Accept AIPAC Money

Finally, as we saw with Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, a Democrat cannot win in a progressive state while carrying any association with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). El-Sayed ran as the anti-AIPAC candidate. Association with AIPAC proved to be a red line for progressive voters that no amount of TV advertising could wash away. MinnPost reported on April 20:

Democrats are grappling with their support for Israel, with many rejecting campaign money from pro-Israel groups and that Angie Craig is among the lawmakers caught up in her party’s shifting attitudes.

Since she first ran for Congress in 2018, Craig’s campaign has received more than $800,000 in money linked to AIPAC.

A MinnPost analysis of Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings found that of that money, $400,400 was raised through the pro-Israel group in the months before she announced her bid for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat a year ago.

Summary

There are certainly other reasons for Flanagan’s victory, but we believe these are at the core. If centrist Democrats continue to run Cuomo-style campaigns that ignore or dismiss what the progressive wing of the party wants, they will keep losing primaries to candidates embracing bold ideas. Low-budget campaigns built on door-knocking, community, opposition to Trump and ICE, and distance from Israel are winning. Peggy Flanagan now represents the Minnesota DFL. The challenge ahead is for her campaign to sustain that enthusiasm, bring the Craig camp into the fold, and keep Republicans from defining her as a communist sympathizer who let fraud flourish in the state.

One point Craig raised strikes us as accurate: if Flanagan believed the Craig campaign was unfair in its advertising, she should brace for something far worse once Republicans launch their campaigns against her. As Republicans have shown again and again, there's no bottom to how low they'll go.

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In the coming weeks, we plan to talk with Minneapolis officials about Mayor Frey’s budget. It’s set to be released Wednesday, August 12, and it’s already generating buzz. Residents are being told to expect layoffs of more than 100 city employees, along with other departmental cuts. Minneapolis, like many cities, is finding itself stretched to provide services on lower tax revenue.

A recurring question for us is why the city seems to get blamed for everything that goes wrong, even when much of what draws attention is actually a county responsibility. For example, city council members are exploring Safe Outdoor Spaces, a program modeled on one in Duluth that would let people sleep in a designated area in their cars. That kind of program could be seen as the city stepping into the county’s role. Hennepin County already spends 26.8% of its budget on human services for vulnerable residents and another 21.2% on health care programs, including Hennepin County Medical Center.

Homeless outreach, street-level violence outreach, Youth Group Violence Intervention, the Next Step Program, and Community Violence Prevention Services are all county programs, yet Minneapolis seems to duplicate many of these efforts. Still, when a problem arises, people rarely think to write to their county commissioner, let alone to Hennepin County Administrator Jodi Wentland. Most residents don’t realize there’s an unelected mayoral equivalent overseeing a budget even larger than the city’s.

The county administrator is appointed by the seven county commissioners and runs the county’s day-to-day operations. Instead of a mayor-council system, the county uses a board of commissioners-administrator arrangement.

Wentland may well be doing a fine job; it’s hard for us to say. We don’t have the resources to follow county politics as closely as we’d like. But a few recent stories caught our attention. First, the Hennepin County library system is limiting staff hours even as usage is up. Library Director Scott Duimstra announced the planned cuts last Thursday as the system works to close a $5 million budget gap.

The library cuts are harder to accept set against the $2.25 billion in additional funding the county has approved for the Blue Line light-rail extension, and the county is reportedly asking the Metropolitan Council for additional funding to cover a shortfall. Many residents are also familiar with the serious financial losses at Hennepin County Medical Center this past year, which required state support to stay open.

It adds up to a pattern: huge projects, huge budgets, and unless you’re following closely and digging into the stories, you probably have no idea who’s making these decisions. You didn’t vote on them. All 17 members of the Metropolitan Council are appointed by the governor, meaning that if you care about regional planning, transit, and infrastructure across the seven-county metro area, your best channel of influence is understanding the philosophy and priorities of whoever holds that office.

This week, all eyes will be on the results of the August 11 primary. Among county commissioner races, Districts 2 and 3 have competitive fields; no one is running against Angela Conley in District 4. Once the primary and the mayor’s budget are behind us, Better Minneapolis plans to reach out to Jodi Wentland. We’d like a fuller picture of how she views the role, her governing principles, and what her next budget is likely to include.

For context: the library’s budget is roughly $40 million, or about 1.3% of the county’s $3.15 billion total budget. A $5 million cut represents a 12.5% reduction to that specific budget. We’re watching to see what other resident services may be asked to scale back next.

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The Polls

If the polls taken in Minnesota since January 2026 are to be believed, Representative Angie Craig is in a tough race to win the DFL primary for U.S. Senate on August 11. North Star Dawn PAC, arguably the poll most favorable to Craig, showed her with a one-point advantage over Flanagan in May. KSTP found Craig with a five-point advantage in June, but its follow-up survey in July showed the candidates even. The polls associated with Flanagan’s campaign put her up anywhere from 7 to 14 points.

Polls can be deceiving. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won his primary over Representative Haley Stevens by a much smaller margin than polls predicted. The question now is whether a similar dynamic plays out here, with a more left-leaning Flanagan, like El-Sayed, edging out the more centrist Craig.

What we find most troubling about this race, and to a lesser extent the Hennepin County Attorney’s race, is the level of animosity on display on social media. Whichever candidate you support, the opponent is cast as a complete poser, unworthy of respect or consideration. Our politics, even within the same party, have strayed far from the days when disagreement was possible around the edges of policy. Everything is treated as existential. No pressure, but if you listen to the breathless declarations online, our entire democracy is at stake in this battle of left-of-center versus more left-of-center.

According to the Cook Political Report, the Minnesota Senate seat remains “Likely D.” Whoever wins the primary is likely to become the state’s next U.S. Senator, one vote out of 100. If Democrats can’t flip a few seats elsewhere, that single vote won’t change much. Many observers believe El-Sayed is unlikely to win the general election in Michigan, which would all but assure Republican control of the Senate. Whether Craig or Flanagan represents Minnesota, their impact on the national scene will likely be far less significant than the rhetoric surrounding the race suggests. What does seem certain is that the DFL will remain split, and that the ugly interparty politics playing out in the state will continue.

Two-Front War

Jonathan Chait, writing in The Atlantic, describes the situation within the Democratic Party in his article “Liberals Are Now Fighting a Two-Front War.” According to Chait, El-Sayed’s victory is a serious setback for centrist Democrats, one they need to absorb quickly or risk becoming irrelevant within the party.

He frames the rise of the party’s left wing this way:

the greatest challenge for mainstream liberals is winning the substantive argument with the left. That’s inherently difficult, because within any political party, the more extreme faction can appeal to ideological purity without worrying about the opinions of voters outside the party. Democratic socialism, for instance, is unpopular with the American public as a whole, yet it draws approval from roughly three-quarters of Democrats. As a result, Democratic Party moderates who have good reason to oppose socialism have a hard time convincing partisans who show up to vote in primaries to feel the same way.

Chait draws a comparison to the internal disputes that helped propel Trump to the presidency within the Republican Party. His conclusion:

What left-wing insurgents such as El-Sayed and Piker want is to take over the Democratic Party, a goal that gets easier when traditional liberals flee it. Carville’s wing of the party is being out-strategized by an insurgent faction that has shrewdly exploited the weaknesses of the party’s leadership. The soundest course of action for mainstream liberals is to recognize how and why they have been losing, and learn how to fight smarter and harder.

We tend to agree with Chait’s conclusions. The Democratic Party’s internal battles are a real weakness, one with implications for its national prospects. If centrists on their heels can’t articulate a platform that pulls the party together, that bodes poorly for winning the Senate or the presidency in 2028.

Minnesota faces significant challenges of its own. We are working to rebuild our main economic engine, Minneapolis, and yet each election cycle seems to make it harder to align goals and direct resources where they’re needed. School and city budgets are strained. Our economy is showing signs of slowing. Right now, we need elected leaders who prioritize competent, steady leadership over personal ambition, with a mindset focused on solving our most complex problems. Keeping the DFL intact is only one item on that list.

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Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson is off to a rocky start. In April, at a panel discussion at Seattle University, she laughed and told wealthy residents leaving over taxes to go ahead and go. It was an odd moment for someone who protested Amazon as a union organizer in 2015 and is now, as mayor, trying to keep the company from moving more jobs out of the city. Then this week, several people were shot at a food festival, and Wilson left the public waiting for hours to learn what had happened. She seemed unprepared to communicate with residents and calm their fears. The police chief bore the brunt of it. He was asked to resign, with a $590,000 payout, after it came out that he was out of town during the shooting and spends a good deal of his time traveling between conferences and his family in Chicago.

During our recent trip out West, several elected officials told us they want to improve their cities’ reputations. They were frustrated that the media fixates on the negative. As people who consider ourselves loosely part of the media, we understand the impulse. “If it bleeds, it leads” is still very much how the news works, and it may be getting worse as more outlets compete for the same shrinking attention. But even if the media is biased toward violence and officials' mistakes, and even if that bias breeds distrust, government still isn't off the hook for giving the public accurate information. Politicians and PR firms go to great lengths to manage public opinion, and that effort is part of what feeds the distrust in the first place. Building a good reputation is harder in this environment, but no less important.

Across the river, St. Paul’s new mayor, Kaohly Her, is trying to explain away sexually explicit conduct and convince residents she should stay in office. Meanwhile, Minneapolis is now competing with Seattle for a new police chief, after Chief O’Hara’s resignation dealt a blow to both our reform efforts and our reputation as a well-run city. Mayor Her’s actions and Wilson’s do more than damage their own personal brands. They damage the cities they lead.

Minneapolis has its own version of this problem. The mass shootings that keep happening here, with unnerving regularity, leave an impression that reaches well beyond the metro area. They reinforce the story suburban residents already tell themselves about the city: one more reason to eat close to home or skip a show downtown. The city is working hard to promote its arts and music scene to draw people in, and each incident undercuts that work. To be fair, our officials have communicated far better than Mayor Wilson did in Seattle, though that may just be a sign of how much practice they’ve had.

The Similarities

Minneapolis, St. Paul, Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco are all blue cities trying to recover from Covid, social unrest, and an economy that no longer needs downtown offices full of workers. In that sense, their reputations are linked. When companies decide where to locate, they look for cities that are well run and welcoming, clean, safe, and equipped with good schools. Being a “progressive” city has to mean being a city with programs that actually work. If a mayor’s answer to drug use and homelessness is a research paper, that’s a failure. Research stops mattering to someone stepping over an unconscious body on the sidewalk or the train. Families weighing a move to Minneapolis might see our weak schools and expensive childcare and look elsewhere.

Minneapolis and its peer cities are competing for business against places like Dallas, Charlotte, and Nashville. To keep up, we need to work much harder at building a reputation as a city that is safe, effective, and open for business. We aren’t there yet. When you have to convince outsiders your city is safe despite the shootings and the encampments, you’re already digging out of a hole.

What do you think Minneapolis’s reputation is right now?

What do friends and family outside the state tell you?

What’s at Stake on August 11

Readers of this newsletter tend to be more politically engaged than most, and many understand that the August 11 primary will send a message about the kind of leadership Minnesota and Hennepin County want for the next four to six years. Some voters will want to send a signal that we remain a “progressive” state, and for many of these races, that has come to mean how loudly a candidate opposes Trump. Others will be more focused on finding capable leaders with the experience to do the job well and build a reputation for competence.

Danny Westneat wrote about what is occurring in a recent column about Seattle, and it applies just as much here:

“The establishment really has fubared a lot of stuff, so the impulse to sack them is understandable. But politics and governing remain unique, demanding skills. It’s not like running a business or an activist group, as we are seeing play out in real time. Boring question, then, after a tumultuous week: Is it too much to ask for stuff just to work?”

When it comes to the basics, like clean and safe streets, people want results. That doesn’t mean trading compassion for cruelty. It means voters want leaders who share their priorities and have the experience and judgment to actually deliver.

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It was announced this week that the post-Modern Café will close to give the owner and staff a break. Restaurant staff have been working nonstop the last six months to provide meals to anyone who entered. Prices were removed from the menu. Donations were optional.

The model stopped working as donations slowed. The owner and staff are taking a fresh look at their payment model during the hiatus. Their experiment was unique and remarkable in many ways. They served thousands of meals to hungry people.

While many people have focused on this change as an example of the limits of socialism, we want to add that it is part of an emerging trend, one where people are reasserting the need for public order in their communities. When the café began to attract people who failed to respect the surrounding community, support for the project floundered. Neighbors spoke of open drug use on corners, overdoses, used syringes, human feces, thefts, and fights. The experiment in donation-based payments resulted in neighbors feeling unsafe and general chaos.

Sunday, shortly before 12:30 a.m., nine people were shot outside the Reign nightclub in Uptown. Public outcry and frustration boiled over. The Uptown community is working hard to build on its revitalization. A mass shooting at one of its busiest intersections is the last thing they needed. That same night five people were shot on the 1800 block of Nicollet Avenue South, an area the city seems to have given up on and now allows drug dealers to operate there with impunity.

In St. Paul, the Pig’s Eye Park encampment is set to be removed August 5. It has over 100 people living in tents. Mayor Her is hopeful that the advance warning will allow people staying in the encampment sufficient time to seek out services and leave before city workers show up.

A common thread runs through all of these events: people favor a compassionate response when people are in need, but there are limits to how much public disorder they are willing to accept.

West Coast Observations

These local flashpoints are part of a pattern we saw echoed on our recent trip west. David Therkelsen and Terry White have returned from their fact-finding mission to the West Coast. We’ll be writing about our findings in the coming weeks. Those stories will be published on the Minneapolistimes.com website. We were able to record a podcast with several Seattle journalists. You can listen to that conversation here.

The reasons why each of these cities has struggled with drug addiction, the unhoused, and economic revitalization are complex. There are both similarities and differences in the resources at their disposal, resident attitudes, and progress toward their goals. A common theme was that these problems need to be addressed differently than they might have been 10 years ago. One important reason for this change is the power and addictiveness of the latest fentanyl and synthetic crystal meth. These drugs are manufactured in Mexico and travel directly up I-5. It is the main north-south interstate, and it runs 1,381 miles from the Mexico border up through Washington State. As the drug formulas have changed, the path to serious addiction has quickened. Treatment methods that might have worked for heroin or cocaine a decade ago are simply not up to the current crisis. After billions have been spent by California, Oregon, and Washington to address the onslaught of these drugs and homelessness, people are ready to support leaders willing to embrace new methods. These are still very liberal places, with liberal leaders, including the socialist Katie Wilson, mayor of Seattle, but they are recognizing, as both Mayor Frey and Mayor Her seem to be, that the previous system of tolerance without consequences is due for a reset.

Conclusion

Similar to the reset occurring at the post-Modern Café, cities must look anew at the intersection of housing, drug addiction, and crime. Time and again we heard from people who have come in direct contact with drug addiction who believed the old approaches were insufficient. More so than policymakers, it was the people on the front lines, the ones staffing shelters, or cleaning up trash in the parks, or who had a family member taken from them that were the most fervent about the need for more intervention and accountability.

The dilemma of balancing tolerance and accountability was summed up for me when I traveled to a small town south of Seattle called Tukwila. The leader of We Heart Seattle invited me to listen to what residents had to say as they debated whether to ban unauthorized public camping. Many cities are turning to these bans since the 2024 U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Grants Pass v. Johnson, which granted municipalities the authority to enforce public camping regulations. On July 20, the council voted 4-3 to enact a ban. Proponents felt the police needed the tool even if it wasn’t used. Opponents believed that it criminalized homelessness rather than providing adequate housing solutions.

One of the people who testified was Patrick, a 61-year-old Army veteran and engineer. I spoke to him outside the townhall where he smoked cigarettes through yellowed teeth. The conversation took place as the sky darkened and we were surrounded by massive western red cedars over 1,000 years old. Unshaven and dressed in a rumpled, careless manner, he proceeded to tell me the many standard reasons why he supported the ban. What stuck with me was his account of his sister. His family had spent $250,000 on rehab, and yet it hadn’t been enough. She had died of an overdose, and the experience traumatized the family. He fought to hold back tears as he explained that incarceration might have saved her. In less than twenty minutes, he’d gone from a somewhat unsympathetic figure to one whose pain stayed with me. I hoped he could come to terms with what he carried.

Patrick’s story was one of several we heard during our trip, each ending with a tragedy. It seemed that the families and front line workers closest to the unhoused were the most passionate advocates for changing the system. The problem, they agreed, is more complex than simply providing more housing. Housing alone isn’t keeping people from overdosing; they advocate for a more diverse range of housing, and more robust treatment programs as a requirement for extended housing support. This trend toward accountability wasn’t the product of coldness or a new fervor for “tough on drugs” policies. It was coming from those who had either experienced drug addiction themselves or watched someone close to them suffer from it.

As we discuss the facts and figures and policies of our research in subsequent articles, I hope readers keep in mind the picture of Patrick and his cigarettes and those hulking, silent western red cedars. What’s happening in Minneapolis and around the country, in cities big and small, is a growing recognition that a reset is needed. We’re learning that a compassionate response to drug addiction and homelessness can include guardrails and limitations.

Public order and strong communities are the product of consistency and fairness. If we want to be a city where people choose to raise their families, and where our sons and daughters return after they graduate or explore the world, it requires that we are intentional about how we use our resources and where we set limits. When people consider moving to Minneapolis, or investing here, we want them to see a strong, healthy community. At the core of what must change is an understanding of the current situation. Beneath the statistics on growth, taxes, transportation, and demographics, a city’s fate rests on whether its residents believe they and their families have social stability and economic opportunity ahead. Now is the time to decide whether Minneapolis will be a city of the past, or one ready for today’s challenges.

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Introduction

Minneapolis City Council Member Michael Rainville (Ward 3) joined me this week to discuss a few of the recent issues to come before the council: drones, the Heritage Park housing emergency, the upcoming budget battles, and the current dynamics of the council itself.

The prevalence of last-minute amendments that sometimes overwhelm city staff and council members reflects the relative inexperience of leadership. He talks about why the Lyndale Avenue project stalled for five years despite broad agreement on goals. He explains what happened at Heritage Park, where 636 residents lost their homes when a developer abandoned the property and the city’s oversight systems failed. And he makes the case for the drone pilot program, which he believes could save lives.

Rainville also describes the harder truths: downtown property tax revenue has collapsed by $54 million since 2022. Police are drastically understaffed. Every household in Minneapolis is about to see property taxes jump unless the city makes tough cuts. And some of the loudest voices in these debates don’t always represent the people most affected.

What emerges is a picture of a city trying to solve big problems with broken processes and divided leadership.

Interview Summary:

Process Issues

We begin with a discussion of some of the routine process challenges, such as multiple amendments with last-minute changes, confusion over what’s being voted on, and inconsistent adherence to established decorum.

Lyndale Avenue & Road Redesign

The controversial Hennepin County road project has dragged on for five years and seen tens of thousands of public comments. While the goal of walkable, safer communities is admirable, Rainville expresses concern that small business owners, who have real money at stake, feel unheard and disrespected. He cites advocates booing a business owner during meetings and notes that if these businesses fail, large chains will consolidate control of neighborhoods, ultimately reducing walkability. The county should provide business support similar to what it’s offering Blue Line extension businesses.

Drone Pilot Program

Rainville strongly supported a 75-day drone pilot for emergency response (no cost to the city). He argues drones are already used successfully in major cities (New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Denver) and provide faster response times (60 seconds vs. 7 minutes for police). The pilot could have gathered crucial data on effectiveness, but it was rejected due to what he calls “governing on fear” rather than facts—opposition focused on distrust of police and government rather than on drone technology itself.

Heritage Park Housing Crisis

A for-profit developer (McCormack Baron Salazar) allowed this housing project to become mold-infested and unlivable. Multiple city entities and the developer failed to address the deteriorating conditions. Rainville praises Council Member Pearl Warren for taking responsibility and pushing accountability. The new Emergency Services Director has expertise managing major crises.

HERC Incinerator & Waste Management

City staff analysis shows that while burning trash creates some air pollutants, transporting trash to distant landfills via truck is a costlier alternative and may create more pollution. Methane from landfills is seven times worse than carbon emissions from burning. The facility closes in 2030; the city must develop a recycling plan with county and state coordination before then. Increased recycling was identified as key to reducing pollution.

Public Safety Concerns

Crime remains elevated, with weekend shootings now normalized. Minneapolis police are critically understaffed (600 officers vs. 900 in 2020), with 80 officers having under 18 months of experience. Behavioral Crisis Response and violence interrupters show promise but need better data on effectiveness. Rainville supports the mayor’s new enforcement approach against open-air drug markets, noting that community leaders, especially Native American elders, oppose encampments. He emphasizes that public drug use and transit safety issues are deterring residents from using public transportation.

Budget Crisis

The city faces serious fiscal strain. Downtown property tax revenue has dropped $54 million since its 2022 peak, driving property tax increases on residents. A business-as-usual budget would require a 13% increase, which Rainville calls unacceptable. In two previous cycles, he advocated for across-the-board cuts of 2% to 5% rather than department-by-department negotiation. Just as every household is tightening its budget during economic hardship, he feels the city should do the same.

Council Collaboration

An external Wisconsin firm is facilitating council cohesion efforts. Rainville notes that divisions stem largely from experience levels—some members bring significant professional background, while others lack business or management experience. Recent coaching sessions have shown modest progress, with agreements to communicate privately and avoid public disparagement, though several members seem disinclined to participate.

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