Two Sydney based pro punters join us on the podcast this week to preview this year's Golden Slipper.

Nathan Snow and Dean the Trial Spy run through their speed maps, early form analysis and recommended betting strategy for the big race.

Punting Insights:

The profile of recent Golden Slipper winners

Does Vancouver deserve to be the warm favourite?

What needs to go right for Exosphere to win?

Who are the best roughies in the race?

Today’s Guest:

Dean the Trial Spy and Nathan Snow

Get the Transcript:

David: Hi everyone I’ve got Dean on the line as I wanted to run through a bit about the history of the Slipper, this year's speed map and also some value bets, potentially. Firstly, the barrier draw as you've done some analysis on that?

Dean: Yeah. There’s been 58 of the Slipper and the most prolific winning barrier is Barrier 1 with 9 wins. If you put them into groups of four, Barriers 1 to 4 have won 22, 5 to 8 have won 16, 9 to 12 have won 14 and 13 to 16 have won ix. Obviously, the key point there, I guess, is Vancouver who looks like he's going to come into the 15 after scratching. You know, only two horses had won from Barrier 15 or 16 in fifty-eight runnings. So, you know, he's got history against him there.

David: And what about in recent times, not just the barrier draw, but you've done some work on where the winners have come from in the run?

Dean: In '04, Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail. In '05 Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail. In '06, Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back, well back and hugged the rail. In '07, Forensics went from gate one, won that course on the rail. In '08, Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail. In '09, Phelan Ready from gate fifteen, uh dropped right back to last but hugged the rail. In 2010, Crystal Lily from gate one was good on the rail. In '11, Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail. In 2012, Pierro from gate one hugged the rail. In 2013, Overreach from gate eleven was third on the rail, and in 2014, Mossfun missed the start and hugged the rail the whole way to win.

So you can see a pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last ten or eleven years, that you want to be on the fence.

David: All right. So how do you think it'll pan out this year? What does the speed map look like so far?

Dean: Well, I think Haptic leads from barrier three. It looks like Furnaces sort of tucks in and gets a lovely trail directly behind from gate one. Haybah has gate two, so that'll probably get a nice run, but take a sit. You know, I think it comes down to the tactics with riders out wide, you know, there are three sort of key pace horses going out wide, from a speed perspective. Headwater, from gate eleven, Speak Fondly from gate twelve, and Vancouver from gate eighteen. It's really going to have to come down to how they jump.

Headwater led in the Sliver Slipper, but then couldn't cross him in the five-course race in the Todman and got caught pretty wide outside Furnaces and Vancouver, so whether he is going to be able to get across in the race, will be interesting. Speak Fondly led last start but can take a sit, so a lot of them might try and get across and see if he can slot in, and Vancouver can jump well but it's also shown a propensity to miss the kick, so where he - and obviously from barrier eighteen, he's going to go a long way to determine his fate.

But, you know, you've got the speed of Haptic and Furnaces, they're still the ones guaranteed to get lovely ones, and then the question is would that speed come from out wide in there, and what pace.

David: So you talked about Vancouver there, and obviously he’s been a spruik horse for quite a while now, with the form that it’s in and the map that you've just spoken about there, would you want to be backing or laying it around the $3?

Dean: Vancouver was the best trialler out of the first set of two run trials on September 22.