This week we welcome back to the podcast Vince Accardi from Daily Sectionals.

We've had a long association with Vince and he's on the show to give his unique perspective on form analysis:

Database vs. instinct and experience

On-speed vs. backmarkers

Big vs. small markets

Specialising vs. diversifying

And also how he manages his betting strategy:

Level vs. proportionate staking

Standard bet size vs. confidence levels

Market intelligence vs market ignorance

Early vs late betting

Favourites vs long shots

Each way (or place only) vs straight out

Static vs dynamic banks

Profit on Turnover % vs Profit only.

Today’s Guest:

Vince Accardi

Dave Duffield: Always a pleasure to have you on Vince and we've run a For and Against series for a few weeks now and wanted to get your take on things. The standard opener has been whether you're working off data or gut instinct and experience. I'm pretty sure you lean towards the former.

Vince Accardi: Yes, it's all very important. Data versus gut, they both play a role, but first and foremost we need to understand the data. Then from there, we can have our gut instinct which is going to create the opportunity.

Dave Duffield: When you're talking about relying on the data, what type of data do you place importance on?

Vince Accardi: I'm a very big stickler, as you know David, it's all about the IVR data and it's all worked through sectional times. Coming though that derivative of class, having that clarity via that model is what it's all about for me.

Dave Duffield: What part does gut instinct and experience play then in the outputs of that model, or do you just rely on tweaking and fine tuning the inputs, so that the outputs you don't really have to second guess?

Vince Accardi: There's always an element of fine tuning, but the reality is your gut instincts all derive from the confidence level that you get from your information that you are working with, and that's what it's all about. The greater confidence you can have from what you're working with, the better gut feeling you're going to get towards making something happen.

Dave Duffield: For the data itself, you've mentioned this on a podcast or webinar previously, you don't really adjust that for luck in running or other subjective factors?

Vince Accardi: No, I don't. But in ratings, there's always a lot of talk about a horse that was trapped 3 wide or 4 wide. It always comes out in the figures anyway.

The reality is, if you can have that correct profile of the runner, that's going to give you the crystallisation. Then you can truly understand the true merits, perhaps if it was wide, or it didn't get a run in the critical last 150 metres, ultimately, a race is at least 1000 metres, or 1200m, or 1400m, or 1600m.

You need to engage in the entire race, not just one portion.

Dave Duffield: Another common question I've been asking is, whether you focus on every race Australia wide, and grind away at a profit, or whether you're focusing on just a few.

Vince Accardi: Yes, that's a really important point that you make there, David.

There are two types of players as we know, or maybe there's multiple types of players. I am the type of player, that I like to work on identifying key runners that I like to tag, and work within those parameters.

I'm certainly not one that wants to enjoy working on every single race. It certainly doesn't stimulate my philosophy. Whilst I might look at every race, ultimately, I don't like to subject myself to that type of betting activity because I feel less is best for me.

Dave Duffield: A few weeks ago, Nathan Snow said that he really thrives on trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together, and that's why he doesn't want to focus on different states and all different races. It sounds like you're similar?

Vince Accardi: I am similar in the sense that I typically like to focus on Melbourne and Sydney,