Nick Aubrey is a former actuary who uses advanced mathematics, probability theory and market anomalies to find value as a punter.

He's been on the Betting 360 podcast previously to discuss his approach, quaddies and multi's.

On this episode we pose the standard questions of our form analysis and staking series. You will soon learn the most important factor in everything that he does.

Punting Insights

Why everything he does as a punter ultimately comes down to price

The winners will come along when they're good and ready

The 'sweet spot' price bracket to include in your exotics

Nick's analysis showing a 7/1 chance is just as likely to run 3rd as the 9/4 favourite

Today’s Guest:

Nick Aubrey

Dave Duffield: Good to have you on Nick. We're trying to get a cross-section of people for this series and you fit the bill as someone who doesn't do things the same way as a lot of other people.

Nick Aubrey: Yep, everybody's different I guess.

Dave Duffield: Of course. We'll get stuck into it and you can explain those differences.

In terms of form, are you someone that likes to sit down and do the form, per se? Or is it more about data?

Nick Aubrey: Well I must admit data tends to solidify ... I guess I got into racing because of my gut feel aspect so I thought, oh this is easy. I can work what the odds and form should be but data is a very clinical way of representing horses' performance. It's a bit less biased than perhaps the gut feel. For instance on Saturday, that freak run - maybe it is a freak, maybe it's not - of Winx to win the Cox Plate. That was fantastic and that'll never leave my mind, but what is probably not considered when you think of that was there track bias on the day? What a freak run that Hughie Bowman got to go up on the inside, because ... Was that a high-risk ride or low-risk? There's a lot of factors that only the facts and figures later on will tell.

Dave Duffield: Do you specialise in certain races or do you cover many?

Nick Aubrey: Many, because I get a data feed so therefore I can do as many as I like. The idea is to bet on as many races as possible to try and spread the risk and really betting is not so much about backing winners but getting the right price about them. The winners will come when they're good and ready. I try to do as many races and bet into as many races as possible.

Dave Duffield: I've heard you say that a few times, you might just want to touch on that briefly; "The winners will come when they're good and ready." That's always been your approach.

Nick Aubrey: Yes. I mean, at the end of the day depending upon your circumstances if you're a punter or a bookmaker but it's a zero sum game and bookmakers tend to charge a margin and to win on the punt you've got to overcome that margin.

Like for instance the Cox Plate. The margins there, you're not going to get 20/1 about Winx because the market's got it pretty right. Therefore, you've got to get the best price about Winx. People that took 6/1 about Winx the day before or whatever, they were laughing. People who just put on the TAB and took the $4.20 well, okay they got the winner but would that price if they got it all the time be sufficient to make a profit in the long term?

It is, sadly, all about the price you get. Of course, you need the winners as well but the winners will come when they're good and ready because nobody can predict what the next one is around the bend.

Dave Duffield: What about speed maps? How do they influence the way you price a race or the way you want to bet?

Nick Aubrey: Yes, well that is something that I've only ... Well I've always been interested in it but I've been, circumstances are I've been looking at that in a lot more detail of late. It's amazing that even in races where you don't think speed is that important, like more the staying races, backing an on-pace runner in terms of typically their value and their ability to win,