Our 'For and Against' series continues this week as we learn how our Kiwi analyst has found such an edge on the market.

FORM

Data vs gut.

Every race vs just a few.

Backmarkers vs on speed

Trainers and jockeys.

Barriers.

Weight.

Trials and first uppers.

Wet tracks.

Big vs small markets

Specialise vs diversified.

STAKING

Level staking vs proportionate.

Staking/confidence levels influencing bet size.

Market intelligence.

Early vs late betting.

Pre-post betting.

Faves vs long shots.

Each way vs straight out.

Exotics.

Static vs dynamic banks.

Profit on Turnover versus Profit only.

Today’s Guest:

Kiwi Chris

Dave Duffield: G’day, Chris. Thanks for joining us again. I wanted to get you on the podcast again to continue the for-and-against series that we've had. Just a run through how you do the form and how you start you stake your bets and basically to help people understand that there's many different ways of going about it.

Let's start off with data versus gut. Do you particularly use one or the other, or is it really a combination of both?

Chris: Probably a combination of both. I have the data here and then it's just getting across the field. Yeah, so a bit of both.

Dave Duffield: How do you incorporate gut instinct? You trust the data and you do your own sectional timing, so you want to be able to rely on that, but at the same time you don’t want to not be a slave to that data, so how do you balance that?

Chris: I guess I look at the race data first, and then I'll have a look at what type of race it is, the jockeys and trainers involved, and what sort of horses will more than likely be peaking for this race or improving from their last performance and sort of take it from there.

Dave Duffield: Some people we chat to, they're more on the data side and betting into almost every race. Then you’ve got quite a few others that specialise. Where do you sit?

Chris: I sort of pick and choose. I’m pretty choosy, as you've probably seen by the results. We don't bet in to many races.

Dave Duffield: How heavily do you penalise back markers?

Chris: Because a lot of the races I'm betting into are maiden races or races where there's horses who are only lightly raced, quite often a horse's pattern is not sort of set in stone yet. I don't really bother with speed maps for those type of races. For more tried horses I'll look at where they're probably going to settle but I think just about everyone these days has an idea of a speed map, so I don't get too carried away with them.

Dave Duffield: You're aware of them and you want to get an understanding of where the horse is going to settle, but it's not a big determinant in whether you want to bet into the race or how you price that horse?

Chris: It'll have some bearing. It will obviously all depend on the particular race we're looking at.

Dave Duffield: In the lower class of race, such as a maiden, is it any harder to make ground . Does it tend to favour the on speed types?

Chris: I couldn't say for sure. Generally, I'm looking for the best horse or the horse that's likely to improve the most and go with them.

Dave Duffield: Trainers and jockeys. What role do they play when you're doing the form?

Chris: They play a decent role, yeah. Obviously, some trainers in New Zealand really dominate the racing here, and they're quite well known. There's a few top-end jockeys as well, who, when you get the combination of both, it's normally a good sign.

Dave Duffield: For trainers and jockeys, are you looking at replays, the form that they're in there, or is it based on their stats, whether it's winning percentage or profitability?

Chris: I guess recent race form. I mean, in New Zealand, there's a group who are the top jockeys and the top trainers. They're reasonably well-known and I don't really look into the data so much. I'll check the tables but it's pretty standard, who the best are.