As the war involving Iran reshapes the strategic landscape of the Middle East, Turkey finds itself navigating one of the most complex geopolitical dilemmas in its modern history. Sharing a long border with Iran and balancing its role as a NATO member with its regional ambitions, Ankara is attempting to manage the fallout of a conflict that could dramatically alter the balance of power across the region. Turkish leaders have condemned U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran against expanding the conflict, reflecting a delicate strategy of hedging between competing interests.

For Ankara, the stakes extend well beyond diplomacy. The prospect of regime collapse in Iran raises fears of refugee flows, border instability, and the emergence of new security threats along Turkey’s eastern frontier. At the same time, the conflict presents opportunities for Turkey to expand its regional influence and position itself as a mediator between global and regional powers. Meanwhile, recent incidents demonstrate how quickly the war could draw Turkey directly into the crisis.

What does Ankara want from this conflict? Is Turkey seeking to prevent the collapse of the Iranian regime, contain regional chaos, or exploit the turmoil to advance its own geopolitical ambitions? And how should the United States and its allies interpret Turkey’s actions at this critical moment?

For a timely discussion on Turkey’s priorities, anxieties, and strategic calculations as the war in Iran unfolds, FDD hosts Henri J. Barkey, adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Steven A. Cook, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The discussion will be moderated by Sinan Ciddi, director of FDD’s Turkey Program.

For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/02/26/beyond-erdogan-turkeys-political-future-under-new-leadership/