The Islamic Republic may discover that surviving the war was the easy part. Its military has been mauled, its deterrence shattered, its proxies weakened, and now an already dysfunctional economy faces relentless pressure — with no victory to rally around and no economic rescue on the horizon.

On the latest episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD’s Miad Maleki, a former senior Treasury sanctions official, to explain why the regime’s greatest threat may no longer come from American bombers or Israeli jets, but from an economic crisis it cannot bomb, repress, or print its way out of.

For decades, Washington and Jerusalem worried about Iran dominating the Middle East. But as the Islamic Republic weakens, is Erdogan’s Turkey positioning itself to become the region’s next great revisionist power?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by two Turkey and Middle East experts: Steven A. Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at FDD.

They discuss Erdogan’s ambitions, Turkey’s growing confrontation with Israel in Syria, Ankara’s support for Hamas, its complicated relationship with Tehran, its future in NATO—and whether Turkey could eventually pursue nuclear weapons.

The central question: As Iran declines, is Turkey the next big Islamist threat?

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with FDD’s Rich Goldberg for a wide-ranging discussion on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets and America’s growing energy dominance.

Rich leads FDD’s Energy and National Security Program and served in the second Trump administration, where he helped establish the White House National Energy Dominance Council. During the first Trump administration, he served at the White House as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction. A former Navy intelligence officer with experience on the Joint Staff and in Afghanistan, Rich also spent years on Capitol Hill, where he was a lead architect of sanctions against Iran. Iran sanctioned him in 2020

Mark and Rich examine the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience and the risks in global energy markets, emerging workarounds to bypass the strait, America’s expanding energy power and China’s role in the equation. It’s a conversation about more than barrels and pipelines—it’s about energy, economics and military power, and the central question: Does Iran have Trump over a barrel—or is it the other way around?

Relevant article: Tehran is losing its grip on Hormuz, and with it all its leverage

What makes the Islamic Republic of Iran different from a conventional regime seeking security, prosperity, and survival? Its ideological DNA fuses Maoist revolutionary thought, Frantz Fanon’s vision of anticolonial struggle and redemptive violence—channeled through Iranian intellectual Ali Shariati—and a revolutionary Shia theology of martyrdom, resistance, and struggle against oppression.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder and first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, forged these currents into a revolutionary state whose legitimacy rests not simply on governing Iran, but on resisting an international order it considers fundamentally unjust.

That helps explain the regime’s remarkable ability to turn military defeats, economic devastation, and mass suffering into narratives of resistance, sacrifice, and even victory.

Haviv Rettig Gur—Middle East analyst at The Free Press, and host of Ask Haviv Anything—joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to unpack the ideological DNA of the Islamic Republic, why it has endured, and what its enemies still misunderstand about the regime they are fighting.

The next battlefield isn’t in the sky or at sea—it’s underground.

The Islamic Republic, together with Hamas and Hezbollah, spent decades building a subterranean fortress: hundreds of miles of terror tunnels beneath Gaza and Lebanon, and deeply buried nuclear and missile facilities designed to survive even the most powerful airstrikes. At the center of that strategy is Pickaxe Mountain, where Tehran is constructing hardened underground infrastructure intended to shield its nuclear weapons program from U.S. and Israeli airpower.

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz sits down with Yadin Soffer, co-founder and CEO of Traysar, a startup developing autonomous systems for underground warfare. They explore how this emerging technology could detect, penetrate, and neutralize subterranean threats—and whether advances in underground warfare could change the strategic equation against deeply buried targets like Pickaxe Mountain.

Iran isn’t dismantling its nuclear program—it’s burying it deeper underground.

At the center of growing U.S. concern is Pickaxe Mountain, a massive underground complex that signals the regime has no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Buried deep beneath solid rock and heavily fortified, the facility may be the most challenging nuclear target the United States has ever confronted, raising difficult questions about whether it can be destroyed by conventional means.

Andrea Stricker, deputy director and research fellow in FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to explain why Pickaxe Mountain matters, what makes it so difficult to neutralize, what military and non-military options remain, and which other parts of Iran’s nuclear program deserve urgent attention.

The United States has launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, hitting roughly 90 targets along the country's coastline, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. With diplomatic channels strained and the regime holding Hormuz hostage, the path back to de-escalation looks increasingly uncertain.

To unpack what comes next, FDD Senior Advisor Richard Goldberg joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to break down the state of the ceasefire, the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's shifting strategy.

The Israel-Lebanon framework brokered by Secretary Rubio may be historic, but Hezbollah still hasn't disarmed. The deal ties Israeli withdrawal to the Lebanese army securing designated pilot zones — yet Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies have already rejected it outright. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran MOU threatens to undercut the whole effort, handing Tehran leverage over Israel's right to self-defense and potentially unlocking billions of dollars for the regime that arms Hezbollah in the first place. With Hezbollah the linchpin of Tehran's "axis of resistance," leaving Lebanon unaddressed is a danger that can't be ignored.

Carine Hajjar — opinion journalist at The Washington Post and Steamboat Institute fellow with deep roots in Lebanon — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask whether this is Lebanon's real chance to break free of Iran's grip, or another false dawn.

The 60-day MOU between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States may dominate headlines, but for 90 million Iranians it changes nothing. The agreement contains no mention of the Iranian people — who only months ago faced a brutal massacre by the regime of an estimated 40,000 protesters. Deal or no deal, the Iranian people face water shortages, power outages, staggering inflation, frozen exports, and throttled internet as a daily reality. Meanwhile, a sanctions waiver allows the IRGC to sell oil and receive payment directly, financing the very institution that oversees their repression.

With the naval blockade lifted and maximum pressure easing, the Islamic Republic is now turning its full attention to the last threat it faces: the millions of Iranians who want it gone.

Medhi Parpanchi — native Iranian and Persian-language journalist at Iran International — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask the question Washington isn't: what does this mean for Iranians?

President Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. The debate is fierce: does the US-Iran MOU go far enough? Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and frozen assets all remain unresolved — leaving critical questions about what any final agreement may actually deliver.

Robert Greenway — military veteran, diplomat, and a key architect of the Abraham Accords — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to cut through the noise. They examine the MOU's terms, the long arc of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, and what happens if Tehran doesn't comply.