While the United States is on the brink of military action in Iran, Iran itself may be on the brink of something far bigger.

U.S. forces are repositioning. Allies are on alert. And in Tehran, a crippled regime already at war with its own people is threatening retaliation against the United States.

In this urgent episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark is joined again by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh to break down what a U.S. strike would actually mean — militarily, strategically, and for the Iranian people themselves — and why American credibility is once again on the line. 

From Iran’s likely response to the durability of its repression, the conversation confronts the million-dollar question: Is this the moment the regime doubles down — or the moment Iranians begin to take their country back?

Ray and Reuel's Wall Street Journal piece from January 12: Don’t Repeat Obama’s Mistake in Iran

Ray and Reuel's Wall Street Journal piece from January 8: Can Iran Hold the Line Against Its Protesters?

If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next watch.

We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, like Mark, Behnam, Saeed, and Janatan

Iran Breakdown-ers, we're pleased to introduce you to Generation Jihad, a podcast from FDD's Long War Journal hosted by Bill Roggio.

It's January 12, 2026, day 16 of the Iran protests. Bill hosts Mark on Generation Jihad to discuss whether this is the moment.

We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next watch.

Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, like Mark, Behnam, Saeed, and Janatan

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The following content is cross-posted

Mark Dubowitz: The regime clings to its ninth life

After military defeat abroad and at home where the economy also has collapsed, the Islamic Republic is weaker than ever, and the Iranian people know it.

The regime is facing a nationwide uprising unlike anything seen in decades with Iranians across class, age, and ideology back in the streets, and they’re no longer asking for reform. They’re demanding an end to the Islamic Republic itself. 

Meanwhile, President Trump warned that U.S. military action is on the table if the regime slaughters protesters. As we record, a brutal crackdown is underway with reports of hundreds of Iranians killed and tens of thousands arrested. Is this the moment?

Bill asks FDD CEO and  host Mark Dubowitz.

The strong-as-ever Iranian people are back on the streets, protesting against the weak-as-ever regime in the shadow of the 12-Day War. 

Recorded live on X Spaces on Thursday, January 8, 2026 as events unfolded, this episode of The Iran Breakdown brings you a real-time conversation with Mark Dubowitz, Behnam Ben Taleblu, and Janatan Sayeh as they assess what’s different about this protest wave, why fear inside Iran may be breaking, and how years of political repression, economic collapse, and environmental failure are converging into a single moment of reckoning.

—We're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests.

—If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's inaugural interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next listen.

—Our Iran experts are on X, including Mark, Behnam, Saeed, Janatan, and others.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

Israel’s 12-day war with Iran upended years of assumptions and may have rewritten the rules of deterrence — but the aftermath could prove more dangerous than the war itself.

As Tehran absorbs the shock of defeat, it now faces a stark choice: regroup, retaliate, or retreat. The regime’s next move will determine whether this war was a turning point — or merely an intermission.

Retired Maj. Gen. Tal Kelman is one of Israel’s most accomplished fighter pilots and one of its top Iran strategists. He didn’t just help plan Operation Rising Lion — he flew missions in it.

Now a colleague at FDD, he joins host Mark Dubowitz to unpack Israel’s air campaign — including a damage assessment of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program — and discern what comes next as Tehran faces hard choices related to its missile forces, proxy network, and nuclear ambitions amidst growing ties with China and Russia and no clear “day after” in sight.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

We're bringing you another riveting episode from our sister podcast, Foreign Podicy, repackaged for Iran Breakdown followers: Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of FDD’s Iran Program, is joined by former senior U.S. intelligence official Norman Roule to assess Iran’s post–12-Day War reality, including the gap between regime propaganda and mounting internal pressure — and what this volatile moment might reveal about the Islamic Republic’s next moves.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

With the regime reeling from military humiliation, economic decay, and growing defiance at home, Mark sits down with frontline journalist David Patrikarakos to cut through Tehran’s spin to explain what’s really happening inside the Islamic Republic. From the collapse of Iran’s nuclear prestige to the widening cracks in its coercive power, this conversation digs into what’s real, what’s collapsing, and what may come next. A weakened regime. A restless population. A volatile moment. Is Iran Unraveling? Let’s break it down.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

Before new episodes of The Iran Breakdown return (soon!), we’re bringing you a riveting discussion from our sister podcast, Foreign Podicy, featuring FDD's Behnam Ben Taleblu in dialogue with Dr. Ali Ansari — one of the world’s foremost scholars of modern Iran.

In a sweeping, incisive discussion, they trace the forces now reshaping the Islamic Republic after the 12-Day War: a regime struggling with a crisis of legitimacy, the weaponization of Iranian nationalism, and the deep social and political shifts building beneath the surface.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here. 

A new axis is rising — forged not in friendship but in shared hatred of the West. Putin and Khamenei have sealed a 20-year pact: Iranian drones rain over Ukraine, Russian diplomats shield Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, and together they’re plotting to shatter the U.S.-led order.

Mark Dubowitz and Clifford D. May break down this dangerous alliance from imperial rivalries to today’s coordinated campaign to weaken America, divide its allies, and resurrect their empires — and how Washington can still break the axis before it’s too late.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

One of America’s top sanctions experts, Miad Maleki, now a senior advisor at FDD, joins Mark Dubowitz to pull back the curtain on the Islamic Republic’s mafia state — a regime that controls every corner of the economy, launders terror money through “charities,” and weaponizes humanitarian channels to fund global terror.

They break down how U.S. financial power crippled Tehran’s networks, why the myth of “moderating Iran through wealth” is a deadly illusion, and why the next round of snapback sanctions could push the Islamic Republic to the brink.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here.

U.S.–Israeli coordination during the 12-Day War critically damaged Iran’s nuclear program and flipped deterrence on its head. Now, Israeli strikes targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar have sent shockwaves across the region — and a strong message to Tehran. Washington’s latest show of strength? The National Energy Dominance Council.

Established by Trump and co-architected by today’s guest during his most recent White House tour, it ends decades of regime oil blackmail and cements American energy as American power — a tool of statecraft.

Although Washington and Jerusalem are rewriting rules and reestablishing deterrence in the Long War against the Islamic Republic, the fight isn’t over until the regime has fallen. And the next decisive battleground may be Iraq.

To explain why — and to help break down lessons learned from the 12-Day War, Israel’s strike in Qatar, and how American energy dominance is reshaping the strategic landscape — Rich Goldberg is back with Mark on The Iran Breakdown.