The United States has launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, hitting roughly 90 targets along the country's coastline, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. With diplomatic channels strained and the regime holding Hormuz hostage, the path back to de-escalation looks increasingly uncertain.

To unpack what comes next, FDD Senior Advisor Richard Goldberg joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to break down the state of the ceasefire, the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's shifting strategy.

The Israel-Lebanon framework brokered by Secretary Rubio may be historic, but Hezbollah still hasn't disarmed. The deal ties Israeli withdrawal to the Lebanese army securing designated pilot zones — yet Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies have already rejected it outright. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran MOU threatens to undercut the whole effort, handing Tehran leverage over Israel's right to self-defense and potentially unlocking billions of dollars for the regime that arms Hezbollah in the first place. With Hezbollah the linchpin of Tehran's "axis of resistance," leaving Lebanon unaddressed is a danger that can't be ignored.

Carine Hajjar — opinion journalist at The Washington Post and Steamboat Institute fellow with deep roots in Lebanon — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask whether this is Lebanon's real chance to break free of Iran's grip, or another false dawn.

The 60-day MOU between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States may dominate headlines, but for 90 million Iranians it changes nothing. The agreement contains no mention of the Iranian people — who only months ago faced a brutal massacre by the regime of an estimated 40,000 protesters. Deal or no deal, the Iranian people face water shortages, power outages, staggering inflation, frozen exports, and throttled internet as a daily reality. Meanwhile, a sanctions waiver allows the IRGC to sell oil and receive payment directly, financing the very institution that oversees their repression.

With the naval blockade lifted and maximum pressure easing, the Islamic Republic is now turning its full attention to the last threat it faces: the millions of Iranians who want it gone.

Medhi Parpanchi — native Iranian and Persian-language journalist at Iran International — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask the question Washington isn't: what does this mean for Iranians?

President Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. The debate is fierce: does the US-Iran MOU go far enough? Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and frozen assets all remain unresolved — leaving critical questions about what any final agreement may actually deliver.

Robert Greenway — military veteran, diplomat, and a key architect of the Abraham Accords — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to cut through the noise. They examine the MOU's terms, the long arc of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, and what happens if Tehran doesn't comply.

The clock is ticking on the Islamic Republic — but what does finishing the job actually look like? With the regime battered, broken, and the pressure campaign at a critical inflection point, the U.S. faces a defining choice: double down or negotiate from strength? What tools remain in Washington's arsenal, and how does the Trump administration turn military and economic pressure into lasting political change?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by Marc Thiessen, American Enterprise Institute fellow, former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, and Washington Post columnist, to map out the next phase of the U.S. pressure campaign, the strategic choices that will define the endgame, and what it will take to finally free the Iranian people from over four decades of brutal rule by the Islamic Regime.

The Islamic Republic played one of the few cards it had left: the Strait of Hormuz. How did military planners prepare for this moment? Was a closure inevitable? If the U.S. and Israel had not confronted the Islamic Republic, where would we be today? And is Hormuz a diminishing weapon of leverage in the hands of Iran as countries take steps to reduce their dependencies on the straits?

Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD Senior Advisor Rich Goldberg — who served on the National Security Council as Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction, helped stand up the White House National Energy Dominance Council, and leads FDD's Energy and National Security Program — to break down the military and energy battles over the Strait and the cards President Trump still has left to play.

Every Iranian revolution begins with an ordinary life hitting an extraordinary wall. Stolen Revolution captures those moments — the personal reckonings with a regime that promised faith and delivered suffocation. Co-authored by award-winning journalists Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the book traces six Iranians living the full arc of modern Iranian history: a Khomeini devotee cast from power, a poet who gave voice to a generation's shattered dreams, a bureaucrat who risked everything to expose state corruption, an entrepreneur crushed by the security apparatus, and two young women who joined the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising.

Iran International's Bozorgmehr Sharafedin joins FDD Iran Program Senior Director Behnam Ben Taleblu to unpack the human stories behind Iran's seismic shift from reform to revolution, and what they reveal about life under the Islamic Republic.

A deal has been struck. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Iran's nuclear program is — allegedly — being curtailed. And sanctions relief is on the way. But what did the United States actually get? What did the Islamic Republic walk away with? And does this agreement close the door on Iran's path to a nuclear weapon — or just delay it? Richard Goldberg — FDD's Senior Director for Energy and National Security, former White House NSC Director for Countering Iranian WMD, and one of the architects of maximum pressure — joins Mark Dubowitz to break down the deal, assess the terms, and ask the question that will define its legacy: vice grip or open door?

Is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire built to last? While the bombs have stopped, the strategic Battle for Hormuz continues to threaten global stability. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz is joined by Aaron MacLean — CBS News national security analyst and host of the School of War podcast — to assess the military, strategic, and geopolitical stakes of the Iran war. Is the ceasefire a pause button or a vice grip? And what did Iran's Hormuz gamble reveal to Beijing, Moscow, and every member of the axis of aggressors watching closely?

In this special solo episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz pushes back hard on the narrative that America is losing the war with the Islamic Republic. Step by step, he makes the case that Tehran has just suffered the most severe strategic defeat in its 47-year history — its leadership decapitated, its nuclear program gutted, its air defenses shattered, its proxies in ruins, and its economy in a death spiral with the clock running out. The only remaining question: will the ceasefire be a pause that lets the regime breathe — or the closing vice on a failing regime? Mark argues the discipline to answer that question correctly is the last thing standing between America and a durable victory.