Property is the world’s largest asset class, so any fluctuation within this market has far-reaching effects. Just consider how property values in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the U.K., and the U.S. have sent ripples throughout the global economy.

There are many factors that affect the housing market, and one is the amount of investment activity. Investors contributed to the dramatic home price growth seen in recent years. The surge in investor activity significantly impacted home prices, but the precise extent of this influence remains a subject of ongoing debate among economists.

Another factor affecting the property market is interest rates. When these rates plummeted several years ago, housing prices surged across the world. Then rates began to climb, and the substantial home price gains seen in the aforementioned countries began to correct. But home prices in the U.S. have remained above their 2020 peak, defying expectations.

That leaves the question: Why is the U.S. an outlier in the property market?

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Professional Economist Thom Malone to discuss the effect that the U.S. securitized mortgage system and investor activity has had on both the national and global property markets.

2:04 – What has happened to housing prices since the pandemic and what makes 2023 such a pivotal year?

5:47 – Who are the investors that are participating in the market? Who are the mega investors and what role do they play?

8:33 – How has investor activity impacted home prices?

10:54 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.

12:05 – What is happening in the world of international housing prices?

14:16 – What are the advantages and disadvantages of the U.S.’s securitized mortgage system?

19:53 – Maiclaire Bolton Smith and Thom Malone talk about their experiences speaking with friends from their home countries about buying a house in the U.S.

Links:

Read CoreLogic Intelligence

Register for INTRCONNECT 2024

Up Next: What Is the Future of Mortgage Interest Rates in the Current Real Estate Market?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Instances of mortgage fraud have remained relatively stable in recent years. In the second quarter of 2023, CoreLogic estimates that 1 in 134 applications contained fraud, up from 1 in 131 during the same period in 2022. But that doesn’t mean that lenders shouldn’t be on the lookout for warning signs.

In the 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report, researchers found that suspected occupancy loans have nearly tripled since 2020. This type of fraud, which is difficult to spot during origination, typically occurs when someone identifies an investment property as a primary residence to obtain more favorable rates. Not only is this subcategory of fraud requiring more attention, but a changing economy and the increase in automation is bringing unique challenges to the industry.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Bridget Berg, a senior leader in loan solutions at CoreLogic, to talk about who ends up paying when someone defaults on a loan and how automation may open the door for increased fraud.

0:53 – Who ends up paying when someone default on a loan that has fraud and what happens to lenders that have to buy back loans?

4:10 – Does the normalization of automated underwriting have the potential to lead to more mortgage fraud?

6:30 – Are cash-based borrowers without traditional credit histories turning mortgage fraud more of a concern?

9:07 – Erika Stanley gives an overview of natural disaster headlines from CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central.

10:58 – What does the future of fraud risk look like.

Links:

• Why Extreme Heat-Related Property Risk Is the Next Significant Business Hurdle
• Hazard HQ Command Central Natural Disaster Coverage
• 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report
• October 2023 U.S. Home Price Insights Report

Up Next: HELOC Loans May Be the Next Threat for Mortgage Fraud

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Elevated interest rates have had ripple effects across the U.S. property market. From the appearance of the lock-in effect, which has slowed down home purchases, to increasing questions of affordability, the climbing cost of taking out a mortgage has spurred many to consider how to lower the price tag.

One trend that CoreLogic® has spotted in the property market is an increase in suspected occupancy fraud. In the 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report, researchers found that suspected occupancy loans have nearly tripled since 2020. This type of fraud, which is difficult to spot during origination, typically occurs when someone identifies an investment property as a primary residence to obtain more favorable rates.

Despite this uptick in the subcategory, the overall instance of mortgage fraud has remained relatively flat. In the second quarter of 2023, CoreLogic estimates that 1 in 134 applications contained fraud, up from 1 in 131 during the same period in 2022.

But occupancy fraud is not the only tactic on the table. In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Bridget Berg, a senior leader in loan solutions at CoreLogic, to talk about the types of mortgage fraud, where it is most prevalent in the industry and why it can be so difficult to detect.

2:19 – An overview of the prevalence of fraud through the years.

3:56 – Host Maiclaire describes what it’s like to go through a routine audit following a mortgage, and guest Bridget Berg explains the different ways people can defraud lenders.

5:56 – Is there more fraud happening now than in previous years? How did the pandemic change the trend?

8:29 – Why should occupancy fraud should be top of mind for lenders?

9:47 – Is mortgage fraud difficult to detect, and are there triggers and are there ways that lenders can identify risks?

11:16 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market in The Sip.

12:33 – A discussion about the fraud risk associated with occupancy declarations and HELOC loans.

Links:

• 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report
• October 2023 U.S. Home Price Insights Report

Up Next: HELOC Loans May Be the Next Threat for Mortgage Fraud

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Wildfires are an annual occurrence in many areas of the U.S. However, as our climate changes, fires are beginning to ignite in areas that are traditionally at low risk. Just look at the Hawaiian island of Maui.

Despite the increasing number of regions experiencing wildfires, only about 9% of U.S. properties meet the threshold for high or extreme wildfire risk. So how exactly is this risk measured and what role can mitigation play in reducing this natural danger?

In this episode host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Chief Actuary Howard Kunst to talk about this subject. The two will discuss the wildfire season with a focus on California — one of the most high-profile, wildfire-burdened states in the country — and how the historic rainfall from earlier this year will influence upcoming wildfire risk.

1:25 – California had one of the wettest winters on record last year. How has that changed wildfire risk in the state? Hint: It didn’t necessarily improve things.

4:08 – Why is awareness of wildfires important for mitigation and how do we create awareness in low-risk areas?

6:07 – Is climate change really making wildfires worse?

7:30 – Erika Stanley talks about extreme weather events in the Natural Disaster Digest.

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• How Will Property Data Help Manage the California Insurance Crisis?

Up Next: Does Low Wildfire Risk Create a False Sense of Security?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Knowing the wildfire risk of a home is becoming increasingly important — both for homeowners and insurers. However, it is insufficient to simply know that there is a probability of a wildfire occurring at a certain property. It is imperative to understand the development of historic risks into current risks and how this score will evolve in the future. After all, low risk today does not mean no risk tomorrow.

While only about 9% of U.S. properties meet the threshold for high or extreme wildfire risk, it is worth questioning why wildfires are creating increasingly large damage figures for homeowners and insurers. In short, climate change, where homes are built, and their construction type all play a role.

However, that is not the full story.

Understanding how risk scores are created, what a property’s risk score actually means, and knowing how to promote mitigation — even among homes that qualify as low risk — are essential strategies for maintaining safety in environments that are experiencing prolonged and more frequent wildfire seasons than usual.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Chief Actuary Howard Kunst to talk about wildfire risk, how to use a risk score to map those potential threats, and what different actions insurers can take based on the score.

2:14 – How do we calculate wildfire risk?

3:25 – How are these scores used and why are they different than probabilistic models?

7:04 – How long is a risk score valid, and why is it wise to annually evaluate risk scores across a property portfolio?

8:52 – What are the thresholds for low, medium and high risk? Why are nearly all U.S. properties low risk?

12:08 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market with The Sip.

13:15 – Why are low-risk areas like Maui, Hawaii seeing wildfire events that cause widespread devastation?

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• How Will Property Data Help Manage the California Insurance Crisis?

Up Next: Can Wildfire Mitigation Stop the California Insurer Exodus?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

El Niño has undoubtedly impacted the 2023 hurricane season. But it is not the only weather pattern that is exerting influence. Ocean temperature — also known as sea surface temperature — is also driving the storms swirling in the Atlantic Ocean. As reports of record-breaking temperatures in the Atlantic appeared this summer, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began to postulate that this season will be an above-average one.

As the season progresses, the question has now become: How will insurers fare if one, two or even several storms bring damage to the U.S. housing market?

Another burning question that this conversation touches on is how this summer’s Typhoon Dora in the Pacific Ocean may have created weather patterns that influenced the August wildfire on the Hawaiian island of Maui.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith continues the conversation with CoreLogic's Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer to talk about if insurers are ready for another storm to hit the U.S. and what this season could bring.

0:44 - How is the insurance industry going to fare if we get multiple bad storms this year?

3:45 – What does the appearance of EL Niño mean for Pacific hurricane activity? Are the devastating wildfires of Maui connected to this climate phenomenon?

6:18 – Erika Stanley talks about what is going on in the world of weather in the Natural Disaster Digest.

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• Hazard HQ Command Central

Up Next: Will Scorching Ocean Temps or El Niño Define Hurricane Season?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

The 2023 hurricane season has so far been a wild ride — but that shouldn't be a surprise. With the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) swinging into an El Niño pattern and reports of triple-digit ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, June through November was bound to bring some noteworthy activity, and that pattern could continue.

But what does the combination of El Niño — which is known to dampen hurricane activity — and record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have to do with an active 2023 hurricane season? Well, a lot.

The influence of these weather phenomena is readily apparent from the activity in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of August. From Hurricane Idalia, which brought considerable damage to the Florida coast, to Hurricane Franklin, which soaked Hispaniola and spun a little too close for comfort off the coast of Bermuda, the 2023 hurricane season is peaking. Not to mention that the season started off with the simultaneous appearance of Hurricanes Bret and Cindy.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down again with CoreLogic Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer to talk about the science behind the interaction between ENSO and sea surface temperatures and how knowing a little science can help with seasonal hurricane predictions.

2:20 – What is El Niño and what does it mean as we shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions?

3:50 – Are the patterns we are seeing this year abnormal?

6:42 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market.

7:53 – How do ocean patterns affect hurricane activity?

12:03 – Are we on track to fulfill NOAA's predictions of an above-average hurricane season in 2023?

13:51 – Update on the 2023 hurricane season.

Links:

CoreLogic monthly economic reports

Weather response and analysis by Jon Schneyer

Up Next: Can Wildfire Mitigation Stop the California Insurer Exodus?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

More and more people live in high wildfire-risk areas across the United States. In fact, according to CoreLogic’s 2023 Wildfire Risk Report, California, Colorado and Texas lead the nation in the number of at-risk homes and their total reconstruction cost value. The influx of people into these areas means that there is continued demand for insurers to provide coverage, even though climate change is increasing the potential for and the severity of these wildfires.

While some insurance companies have elected to no longer write new policies in California – a state that is particularly burdened by wildfires – there are opportunities to reduce risk both for homeowners and for carriers. Mitigation is a major component.

Mitigation is not just a trend but a long-term solution. When individuals, governments and insurers work together to create a buffer around a community by fortifying structures and removing potential sources of ignition, CoreLogic and Milliman showed that these efforts could correspond to a 55% reduction in the average total premium (not including reinsurance costs).

In part two of this Core Conversations episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith talks to Senior Product Manager Jamie Knippen about how preparedness for a hazard through education and mitigation is the key to creating resilience for individuals, communities, governments and the insurance industry.

0:51 – What is the advantage of using models to determine wildfire risk?

1:46 – CoreLogic and Milliman studied how significantly mitigation would have affected the outcome of the fire in Paradise, California.

4:19 – How did CoreLogic and Milliman get involved in this study?

6:13 – How can understanding a view of future risk rather than looking at historic wildfire events improve outcomes?

6:52 – Erika Stanley goes over the Natural Disaster Digest

7:53 – Adopting probabilistic models: the when, why and how.

8:50 – What is the future of wildfire insurance across the U.S.?

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report

Up Next: How Will Property Data Help Manage the California Insurance Crisis?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Home insurance is a critical consideration when applying for a mortgage. Without insurance, it’s exceedingly difficult to purchase a property. However, with climate change influencing weather patterns and contributing to the increasing severity of natural disasters, some insurers are reassessing their coverage to better manage their risk.

Insurance risk management is a topic that has cropped up in several U.S. states. This summer, Allstate and State Farm announced that they would no longer write new policies in California and indicated that the frequency and intensity of natural disasters contributed to their decision.

What drove two of the largest insurers in the U.S. to make this decision? How can regulators help manage risk for insurers, carriers and homeowners?

In this episode of Core Conversations, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Senior Product Manager Jamie Knippen to talk about these questions and how understanding wildfire risk scores can help indicate where there are opportunities for risk mitigation.

In This Episode:

3:01 - What happened when two major insurers stopped writing new policies in California?

4:35 – Why are insurers only now saying “This is enough”?

5:54 – Are governmental regulations and mitigation requirements the only answer to rising risk?

8:37 – Erika Stanley gives an overview of the housing market in The Sip

9:36 – How do property, structural and community-level mitigation differ?

12:15 – Maiclaire and Jamie discuss how their jobs have made them hyper-aware of property-level risk

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report

Up Next: Will Wildfire Risk Mitigation Requirements Change the California Insurance Industry?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

In the ever-evolving landscape of the property market, recent years have been marked by volatility and unprecedented challenges. However, amidst this shifting environment, there is an opportunity for lenders to reassess their back-of-house operations and embrace the transformative potential of modern technology.

As the market cools, the stage is set for lenders to revolutionize their processes and cater to the demands of today's discerning consumers. The key lies in embracing automation and digitization to streamline operations and create a seamless borrower experience.

In this episode of Core Conversations, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Praveen Chandramohan, an executive in origination solutions at CoreLogic to discuss how automated underwriting, digital mortgage software, and property technology intertwine to define the future of the mortgage market. From improved borrower experiences to cost optimization, this conversation unveils the transformative power of embracing property technology and mortgage software in the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

0:54 – What are the top priorities for lenders according to a Fannie Mae survey? And how will these priorities solve the “industry conundrum”?

4:28 – Digitizing a cumbersome process begins behind the scenes.

8:53 - Are there ways that technology can widen that net and increase business?

10:21 – How will technology lead the charge in creating new business?

12:42 – Erika Stanley provides the Natural Disaster Digest.

13:33 – Praveen offers some real-life examples of how technology is opening the door for self-employed borrowers and those who prefer to use digital currencies.

Links: 2023 Hurricane Risk Report

Up Next: Modernizing Loan Origination Workflows: A Shortcut Through the Mortgage Maze

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt