In the first episode of Season 4 of Core Conversations, Host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp dive into the aftermath of the pandemic's influence on migration patterns and how remote work has reshaped the housing landscape.

While the pandemic may no longer dominate headlines, it continues to exert its influence. Remote work opportunities flourished, prompting an exodus from high-cost coastal metros to more affordable regions. This migration then spurred home price inflation across the country, while also altering income distribution, patterns of gentrification and urban sprawl.

The consequences for major cities are profound. Already, large metros have been presented with challenges in retaining high-wage workers, navigating shrinking tax bases and facing declining home prices. Conversely, smaller towns have experienced upticks in wages and local spending.

This episode explores the ripple effects of these changes, discussing how cities like San Francisco and New York are adapting and how smaller, more affordable metros are seizing opportunities. Similarly, going forward, it will be critical to ponder the long-term consequences of remote work on cities' functions and how they can reinvent themselves.

• LinkedIn Remote Work Study
• Fannie Mae study: Remote Work and Housing Location Preferences
• Selma Hepp's Op-Ed on pandemic migration
• Read CoreLogic Intelligence

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2:29 – What is "pandemic migration" and how did remote work enable this trend?

4:05 – Will there be any long-term consequences for cities and towns from remote work migration?

7:06 – What are the economic and housing market implications of migration to more affordable areas?

10:28 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.

12:13 – What is the future for America's high-price cities and tech hubs?

16:11 – How will migration influence the future of small towns?

17:33 – Erika Stanley reviews natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world.

18:40 – How have U.S. home prices fared in the face of this continued migration?

22:44 – How have high interest rates affected migration trends and home prices?

Links:

• Read CoreLogic Intelligence
• Register for INTRCONNECT...

What is the future of the U.S. economy? Host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp dive into this perennial question in the final episode of Core Conversations: Season 3.

From incremental home sales increases to gradually declining mortgage rates, there is a lot that we can expect to happen in 2024. However, geopolitical risks, such as oil prices and inflation, have the potential to impact the trajectory of mortgage rates and change the development of the overall housing market.

Tune into this final episode of the season to gain insights into the uncertain future of the housing market, as well as what current trends and property data indicate is likely to develop as we pass into the new year.

0:40 – A summary of what happened in the 2023 housing market.

1:23 – What does Selma expect to be the 2024 economic outlook?

5:40 – Erika Stanley reviews the natural disasters reported on by CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central

7:33 – INTRCONNECT 2024 is coming to Austin

Links:

• Read CoreLogic Intelligence
• Register for INTRCONNECT 2024
• Hazard HQ Command Central
• White Paper: Why Extreme Heat-Related Property Risk Is the Next Significant Business Hurdle

Up Next: 2023 Economic Look Back: A Tale of Two Housing Markets

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

In the season finale of Core Conversations, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp dive into a discussion about the dynamic landscape of the U.S. housing market in 2023.

This year, mortgage rates surged by almost 500 basis points, home prices catapulted by 42% over three years and mortgage payments witnessed a staggering 60% hike. This episode peels back the layers of the housing market, exploring the sometimes-contrasting contexts of the real estate sector with the larger economy.

One of the major topics that this discussion covers is why some homeowners can navigate these economic shifts while others grapple with pressing affordability challenges. Although housing affordability is a crucial point for both homeowners and renters, according to Pete Carroll, executive of public policy for CoreLogic, the affordable housing crisis is a bit of a misnomer. At its core, the crisis is due to a lack of housing inventory with respect to demand.

So, how is it that the U.S. has arrived at a point where inventory is low, prices and interest rates are climbing, and rentals seem out of reach in some markets?

As 2023 comes to an end, join the conversation to reflect on what happened, where we are now, and what we can expect in the future of the U.S. housing economy.

1:58 – What have the general trends been in the U.S. economy in 2023?

4:09 – Why was there a disconnect in how the housing market and the overall economy fared?

6:05 – How much of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does housing represent? Did inflation dramatically effect this percentage?

7:47 – Discussing the housing market slowdown of 2023

10:35 – Erika Stanley reviews the number in the housing market in The Sip.

12:08 – How did the U.S. rental market do in 2023?

15:26 – What is the future for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) with the current rates of inflation?

18:05 – How did the lock-in effect affect the overall housing market?

Links:

• Read CoreLogic Intelligence
• Register for INTRCONNECT 2024

Up Next: Occupancy Fraud May Be the Next Risk for the Mortgage Industry

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Ever wondered why the U.S. mortgage market offers 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages and what impact this unique loan offering has on housing prices? This is a question that host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and CoreLogic Professional Economist Thom Malone dive into during part two of this episode on the differences between the U.S. and international housing markets.

From the surprising benefits of the U.S. system for homeowners to the potential hazards in concentrating mortgage risk, this conversation explores the effects of inflation on housing prices, drawing connections to global trends. Stay tuned until the end for insights into if and where property markets will experience shifts in the upcoming months.

To continue the conversation and connect the dots between interest rates, inflation and housing prices, make sure to tune into Episode 60 as well.

• 1:04 – What are the advantages/disadvantages of the U.S.’s 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage system?
• 2:56 – How do interest rate increases affect housing prices in other countries?
• 5:46 – Are there specific U.S. markets where we’re seeing the potential for people to default on their mortgages?
• 8:20 – How does the national cycle of housing price change express itself? (Hint: like a waterfall)
• 10:50 – Are international markets seeing similar home price trends to the U.S.?
• 12:11 – Erika Stanley reviews natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the globe.
• 13:51 – What can we expect to see from home prices in the next few months?

Links:

• Read CoreLogic Intelligence
• Register for INTRCONNECT 2024
• Hazard HQ Command CentralTM natural disaster coverage
• More First-Time Homebuyers Reside in Midwestern and High-Tech Coastal Metros
• Thom Malone author page

Up Next: Why US Property Retains Its Value Compared to Other Global Markets

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Property is the world’s largest asset class, so any fluctuation within this market has far-reaching effects. Just consider how property values in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the U.K., and the U.S. have sent ripples throughout the global economy.

There are many factors that affect the housing market, and one is the amount of investment activity. Investors contributed to the dramatic home price growth seen in recent years. The surge in investor activity significantly impacted home prices, but the precise extent of this influence remains a subject of ongoing debate among economists.

Another factor affecting the property market is interest rates. When these rates plummeted several years ago, housing prices surged across the world. Then rates began to climb, and the substantial home price gains seen in the aforementioned countries began to correct. But home prices in the U.S. have remained above their 2020 peak, defying expectations.

That leaves the question: Why is the U.S. an outlier in the property market?

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Professional Economist Thom Malone to discuss the effect that the U.S. securitized mortgage system and investor activity has had on both the national and global property markets.

2:04 – What has happened to housing prices since the pandemic and what makes 2023 such a pivotal year?

5:47 – Who are the investors that are participating in the market? Who are the mega investors and what role do they play?

8:33 – How has investor activity impacted home prices?

10:54 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.

12:05 – What is happening in the world of international housing prices?

14:16 – What are the advantages and disadvantages of the U.S.’s securitized mortgage system?

19:53 – Maiclaire Bolton Smith and Thom Malone talk about their experiences speaking with friends from their home countries about buying a house in the U.S.

Links:

Read CoreLogic Intelligence

Register for INTRCONNECT 2024

Up Next: What Is the Future of Mortgage Interest Rates in the Current Real Estate Market?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Instances of mortgage fraud have remained relatively stable in recent years. In the second quarter of 2023, CoreLogic estimates that 1 in 134 applications contained fraud, up from 1 in 131 during the same period in 2022. But that doesn’t mean that lenders shouldn’t be on the lookout for warning signs.

In the 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report, researchers found that suspected occupancy loans have nearly tripled since 2020. This type of fraud, which is difficult to spot during origination, typically occurs when someone identifies an investment property as a primary residence to obtain more favorable rates. Not only is this subcategory of fraud requiring more attention, but a changing economy and the increase in automation is bringing unique challenges to the industry.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Bridget Berg, a senior leader in loan solutions at CoreLogic, to talk about who ends up paying when someone defaults on a loan and how automation may open the door for increased fraud.

0:53 – Who ends up paying when someone default on a loan that has fraud and what happens to lenders that have to buy back loans?

4:10 – Does the normalization of automated underwriting have the potential to lead to more mortgage fraud?

6:30 – Are cash-based borrowers without traditional credit histories turning mortgage fraud more of a concern?

9:07 – Erika Stanley gives an overview of natural disaster headlines from CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central.

10:58 – What does the future of fraud risk look like.

Links:

• Why Extreme Heat-Related Property Risk Is the Next Significant Business Hurdle
• Hazard HQ Command Central Natural Disaster Coverage
• 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report
• October 2023 U.S. Home Price Insights Report

Up Next: HELOC Loans May Be the Next Threat for Mortgage Fraud

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Elevated interest rates have had ripple effects across the U.S. property market. From the appearance of the lock-in effect, which has slowed down home purchases, to increasing questions of affordability, the climbing cost of taking out a mortgage has spurred many to consider how to lower the price tag.

One trend that CoreLogic® has spotted in the property market is an increase in suspected occupancy fraud. In the 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report, researchers found that suspected occupancy loans have nearly tripled since 2020. This type of fraud, which is difficult to spot during origination, typically occurs when someone identifies an investment property as a primary residence to obtain more favorable rates.

Despite this uptick in the subcategory, the overall instance of mortgage fraud has remained relatively flat. In the second quarter of 2023, CoreLogic estimates that 1 in 134 applications contained fraud, up from 1 in 131 during the same period in 2022.

But occupancy fraud is not the only tactic on the table. In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with Bridget Berg, a senior leader in loan solutions at CoreLogic, to talk about the types of mortgage fraud, where it is most prevalent in the industry and why it can be so difficult to detect.

2:19 – An overview of the prevalence of fraud through the years.

3:56 – Host Maiclaire describes what it’s like to go through a routine audit following a mortgage, and guest Bridget Berg explains the different ways people can defraud lenders.

5:56 – Is there more fraud happening now than in previous years? How did the pandemic change the trend?

8:29 – Why should occupancy fraud should be top of mind for lenders?

9:47 – Is mortgage fraud difficult to detect, and are there triggers and are there ways that lenders can identify risks?

11:16 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market in The Sip.

12:33 – A discussion about the fraud risk associated with occupancy declarations and HELOC loans.

Links:

• 2023 Mortgage Fraud Report
• October 2023 U.S. Home Price Insights Report

Up Next: HELOC Loans May Be the Next Threat for Mortgage Fraud

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Wildfires are an annual occurrence in many areas of the U.S. However, as our climate changes, fires are beginning to ignite in areas that are traditionally at low risk. Just look at the Hawaiian island of Maui.

Despite the increasing number of regions experiencing wildfires, only about 9% of U.S. properties meet the threshold for high or extreme wildfire risk. So how exactly is this risk measured and what role can mitigation play in reducing this natural danger?

In this episode host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Chief Actuary Howard Kunst to talk about this subject. The two will discuss the wildfire season with a focus on California — one of the most high-profile, wildfire-burdened states in the country — and how the historic rainfall from earlier this year will influence upcoming wildfire risk.

1:25 – California had one of the wettest winters on record last year. How has that changed wildfire risk in the state? Hint: It didn’t necessarily improve things.

4:08 – Why is awareness of wildfires important for mitigation and how do we create awareness in low-risk areas?

6:07 – Is climate change really making wildfires worse?

7:30 – Erika Stanley talks about extreme weather events in the Natural Disaster Digest.

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• How Will Property Data Help Manage the California Insurance Crisis?

Up Next: Does Low Wildfire Risk Create a False Sense of Security?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

Knowing the wildfire risk of a home is becoming increasingly important — both for homeowners and insurers. However, it is insufficient to simply know that there is a probability of a wildfire occurring at a certain property. It is imperative to understand the development of historic risks into current risks and how this score will evolve in the future. After all, low risk today does not mean no risk tomorrow.

While only about 9% of U.S. properties meet the threshold for high or extreme wildfire risk, it is worth questioning why wildfires are creating increasingly large damage figures for homeowners and insurers. In short, climate change, where homes are built, and their construction type all play a role.

However, that is not the full story.

Understanding how risk scores are created, what a property’s risk score actually means, and knowing how to promote mitigation — even among homes that qualify as low risk — are essential strategies for maintaining safety in environments that are experiencing prolonged and more frequent wildfire seasons than usual.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic Chief Actuary Howard Kunst to talk about wildfire risk, how to use a risk score to map those potential threats, and what different actions insurers can take based on the score.

2:14 – How do we calculate wildfire risk?

3:25 – How are these scores used and why are they different than probabilistic models?

7:04 – How long is a risk score valid, and why is it wise to annually evaluate risk scores across a property portfolio?

8:52 – What are the thresholds for low, medium and high risk? Why are nearly all U.S. properties low risk?

12:08 – Erika Stanley goes over the numbers in the property market with The Sip.

13:15 – Why are low-risk areas like Maui, Hawaii seeing wildfire events that cause widespread devastation?

Links:

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• How Will Property Data Help Manage the California Insurance Crisis?

Up Next: Can Wildfire Mitigation Stop the California Insurer Exodus?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt

El Niño has undoubtedly impacted the 2023 hurricane season. But it is not the only weather pattern that is exerting influence. Ocean temperature — also known as sea surface temperature — is also driving the storms swirling in the Atlantic Ocean. As reports of record-breaking temperatures in the Atlantic appeared this summer, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began to postulate that this season will be an above-average one.

As the season progresses, the question has now become: How will insurers fare if one, two or even several storms bring damage to the U.S. housing market?

Another burning question that this conversation touches on is how this summer’s Typhoon Dora in the Pacific Ocean may have created weather patterns that influenced the August wildfire on the Hawaiian island of Maui.

In this episode, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith continues the conversation with CoreLogic's Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer to talk about if insurers are ready for another storm to hit the U.S. and what this season could bring.

0:44 - How is the insurance industry going to fare if we get multiple bad storms this year?

3:45 – What does the appearance of EL Niño mean for Pacific hurricane activity? Are the devastating wildfires of Maui connected to this climate phenomenon?

6:18 – Erika Stanley talks about what is going on in the world of weather in the Natural Disaster Digest.

• U.S. Home Price Insights Report
• Wildfire Risk Report
• Hazard HQ Command Central

Up Next: Will Scorching Ocean Temps or El Niño Define Hurricane Season?

Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt