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Biotalk episodes

May 07, 2025 Episode 27: Inside the Biopharma Market: 2025 Outlook & Emerging Trends
During Episode 27 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, steps back to examine the macro forces shaping the biopharma landscape. After holding a bearish outlook since 2021, Geoff explains why he's finally shifting his stance and what could signal a true turnaround for biotech.
He unpacks the “big three” market headwinds—regulatory hurdles from the IRA, FTC deal scrutiny, and high interest rates—and outlines how recent shifts, including rate cuts, new FTC leadership, and potential IRA reform, could spark renewed momentum, especially in M&A and rare diseases. Geoff also highlights previously underappreciated risks like HHS cuts and aggressive tariffs, which could stall progress if unresolved.
With a balanced, apolitical lens, this episode offers candid insights into why policy matters for biotech investors, operators, and dealmakers—and what to watch for as 2025 unfolds.
Tune in to understand the key inflection points and why Geoff sees the second half of 2025 as a potential breakout period for the industry.
Full Transcript:
Welcome to Biotalk. My name is Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, and you are listening to Biotalk, our podcast for biotech deal makers. In this episode, I want to zoom out and talk about the bigger picture — what's really driving the biotech market right now.
In almost every meeting the past few months I have been asked my views on the market. I decided that I am going to share my thoughts publicly. I fancy myself to be a free market limited government champion across all aspects of life. I do not comment politically nor believe it is my job to criticize or promote any politician or party. That said, the macro policies enacted by both parties directly impact the biopharma industry, and I believe it’s important to analyze and comment on areas related to the life science industry. For all other issues, I subscribe to the University of Chicago’s institutional neutrality, and it is my (and Locust Walk’s) policy to not comment publicly.
First a recap of why I was bearish starting fall 2021 when Locust Walk ran a webinar titled “Has Biotech Peaked”. Throughout 2022, 2023, and until September 2024, despite many market analysts predicting a turnaround, I maintained my bearishness because the 3 underlying headwinds that started blowing hadn’t stopped or reversed, namely:
Regulatory headwinds because of the IRA
Transaction headwinds from an openly hostile FTC
Monetary headwinds via high interest rates caused by high inflation
Until these 3 drivers reversed, I didn’t believe the market would improve beyond incremental changes. When in September 2024 the US Federal Reserve dropped rates by 50 bps, the rate tightening cycle had not only stopped but reversed. My changing perspective was independent of the pending election since the largest factor interest rates was starting to shift.
In January 2025, Lina Khan exited the FTC and a new era of antitrust enforcement began. While far from perfect, it has been markedly more pro-business with a much less aggressive effort to block transactions. Locust Walk’s Quarterly Market conditions detailed a 47% uptick in M&A by value and 35% by volume showing signs of life in this market even though I didn’t anticipate any material improvement until 2H25 because it takes time for deals to come to fruition after the changeover in policy. I predicted M&A had the potential to transform the industry this year after years of suppression. I stand by this prediction and for everyone’s sake I hope I’m right.
The IRA pill fix is being discussed and because President Trump has come out in support, some form of it is likely to make its way into the reconciliation package of tax and regulatory cuts. I hope small molecules move to 13 years of exclusivity but bigger price discounts thereafter to remain budget neutral rather than meeting in the middle at 11 years, which I think would be quite problematic.
8 min
April 16, 2025 Episode 26: Asia’s 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions
During the Asia-focused Episode 26 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, shares fresh insights from Japan, China, and Korea, as featured in our 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report.
Japan saw modest market recovery, a $3.3B buyout of Mitsubishi Tanabe, and lighter licensing activity. Early-stage financings picked up as investors re-engaged.
China shifted from IPO optimism to global deal-making as markets cooled. Notable trends included strong out-licensing ($17.6B), AstraZeneca’s $2.5B investment, and Ascentage’s NASDAQ debut backed by Takeda. Venture activity rebounded, driven by insider-led late-stage rounds.
Korea drew attention with Orum’s IPO, early-stage deals, and a growing focus on CDMO by major players.
Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.
11 min
April 16, 2025 Biotalk Episode 25: 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions
During Episode 25 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends.
Market Overview: The XBI fell 14% YoY, underperforming the NBI. Biotech weakness stemmed from tariff fears, FDA turnover, and HHS layoffs—pressuring small caps.
Capital Markets: Capital raised dropped 33% from Q4. IPOs briefly reopened—large caps gained, small caps declined. Follow-ons fell 60%. PIPEs were weak, except Immunovant’s $450M.
Venture: Slight dip from Q4 but ahead of all 2023 quarters. Late-stage rounds led, with 11 mega-rounds (Eikon $351M, Kardigan $300M) making up over half the total.
M&A & Licensing: M&A hit $25.2B across 13 deals, focused on Ph2+ assets (e.g., J&J/Intra-Cellular). Licensing stayed strong, favoring clinical-stage programs.
Europe: Strategic deal value reached $13B, led by Zealand-Roche and Gubra-AbbVie. Venture hit $1.2B—90% in Series A rounds like Verdiva ($411M) and Windward ($200M).
Outlook: Regulatory uncertainty and rates may delay M&A, though late-stage and commercial deals could gain momentum.
Listen now to gain insights into the evolving biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.
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14 min
January 28, 2025 Biotalk Episode 24: Asia’s 2024 Year-In-Review
During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, explores the evolving biotech landscapes in Japan and China, highlighting key trends and developments shaping the region as featured in our 2024 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Geoff leverages extensive conversations with strategics and investors worldwide to provide insights into global biotech deal-making. Key topics include:
Japan’s Recovery in 2024: A rebound in licensing activity reached $2.1B in Q4, driven by preclinical and small molecule deals. Venture financing grew 20%, with Series C and D rounds leading the charge.
China’s Strategic Transactions: Licensing deal value surged to $47B, driven by out-licensing, regulatory improvements, and NewCo formations. US investors are highly valued, with reverse mergers and IPOs becoming popular strategies for accessing US capital markets.
Key Themes: Japan’s focus on in-licensing signals interest in earlier-stage innovation, while China’s “fallen angel” assets provide US companies with cost-effective opportunities.
Looking ahead to 2025, Geoff discusses how stabilization in Japan and China’s growing innovation will shape global biotech, despite regulatory and geopolitical challenges.
Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.  
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13 min
January 21, 2025 Biotalk Episode 23: 2024 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions
During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2024 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Geoff dives into the insights from the comprehensive report and offers a forward-looking perspective on what 2025 may bring for the biotech industry. Key topics include:
Capital Markets Performance: The XBI ended flat, down 0.2%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 24% gain. However, 2024 saw a 156% increase in capital raised compared to 2022, with IPO and follow-on financings improving in Q4.
Venture Financing Trends: Q4 venture financing remained stable at ~$4B across 43 deals, with Series A and B rounds leading. Mega-rounds grew, including Kailera’s $400M Series A and Metsera’s $215M Series B.
Strategic Transactions: Licensing deal value surged 135% in Q4, driven by early-stage deals, while M&A activity slowed, with no deals exceeding $5B.
Regional Highlights: Europe and Asia saw a rise in venture and licensing activity, with Asia’s cross-border deals and NewCo formations becoming key trends. This will be discussed further in a separate podcast.
Market Outlook for 2025: With a new FTC chair, M&A and licensing deals are expected to rise in 2025. IPO markets will improve with gradually reduced interest rates, though risk aversion remains with private mega-rounds persisting to reduce financing risk.
Geoff offers advice for navigating the current market and highlights Asia’s growing role in global biotech. Stay tuned for our upcoming podcast on Asian markets.
Listen now to gain insights into the evolving biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.
Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.  
14 min
December 13, 2024 Biotalk Episode 22: A Conversation with Sudhir Agrawal of ARNAY Sciences
On this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, speaks with Sudhir Agrawal, Founder and President of ARNAY Sciences and a pioneer in RNA therapeutics. Sudhir’s extensive career spans over three decades, during which he has made groundbreaking contributions to the field, including developing gapmer antisense technology, immune modulation approaches, and, in recent years, designing cyclic structures of DNA and RNA for therapeutic applications.
In their conversation, Sudhir recounts his journey from his early days in nucleic acid research to becoming a leading innovator in RNA therapeutics. He delves into the origins of the gapmer technology, its impact on antisense drug development, and the lessons learned from his time Idera Pharmaceuticals. He also shares insights into his latest work on cyclic RNA/DNA structures and discusses his vision for the future of nucleic acid therapeutics.
He concludes by offering practical advice to entrepreneurs aspiring to break into the biotech space and sharing his thoughts on the future of RNA science.
Join us for a deep dive into the world of RNA therapeutics with one of its most influential figures.Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
Timestamps:
1:34 What inspired you to focus specifically on RNA therapeutics, and how did your whole journey here begin?
3:04 Can you provide more details about the initial insight behind the development of the gapmer technology, which has been transformational for the space?
5:34 What lessons did you learn from your experience at Ionis (formerly Isis) that you would apply to your current work?
13:54 How are you thinking about commercializing the cyclic RNA/DNA structures you have developed at your company RNA Sciences?
23:40 Beyond the cyclic structures, what other innovations or areas of focus do you see on the horizon for nucleic acid therapeutics?
23:23 What advice would you give your early self starting out as an entrepreneur and innovator in the biotech space?
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30 min
December 11, 2024 Biotalk Episode 22: A Conversation with Sudhir Agrawal of ARNAY Sciences
On this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, speaks with Sudhir Agrawal, Founder and President of ARNAY Sciences and a pioneer in RNA therapeutics. Sudhir’s extensive career spans over three decades, during which he has made groundbreaking contributions to the field, including developing gapmer antisense technology, immune modulation approaches, and, in recent years, designing cyclic structures of DNA and RNA for therapeutic applications.
In their conversation, Sudhir recounts his journey from his early days in nucleic acid research to becoming a leading innovator in RNA therapeutics. He delves into the origins of the gapmer technology, its impact on antisense drug development, and the lessons learned from his time Idera Pharmaceuticals. He also shares insights into his latest work on cyclic RNA/DNA structures and discusses his vision for the future of nucleic acid therapeutics.
He concludes by offering practical advice to entrepreneurs aspiring to break into the biotech space and sharing his thoughts on the future of RNA science.
Join us for a deep dive into the world of RNA therapeutics with one of its most influential figures.
Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
Timestamps:
1:34 What inspired you to focus specifically on RNA therapeutics, and how did your whole journey here begin?
3:04 Can you provide more details about the initial insight behind the development of the gapmer technology, which has been transformational for the space?
5:34 What lessons did you learn from your experience at Ionis (formerly Isis) that you would apply to your current work?
13:54 How are you thinking about commercializing the cyclic RNA/DNA structures you have developed at your company RNA Sciences?
23:40 Beyond the cyclic structures, what other innovations or areas of focus do you see on the horizon for nucleic acid therapeutics?
23:23 What advice would you give your early self starting out as an entrepreneur and innovator in the biotech space?
30 min
November 25, 2024Biotalk Episode 21: Analyzing the 2024 U.S. Election’s Impact on Biotech
In this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, is joined by Andy Meyerson, Managing Director, and Daniel Brog, Senior Vice President, for an insightful discussion on the implications of the 2024 U.S. election results for the biotech industry.
The conversation delves into:
What Trump’s victory could mean for the biotech sector.
The potential impact on the HHS and FDA under RFK’s leadership.
How figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy might influence healthcare policy (DOGE dynamics).
We take a balanced approach, covering the potential positive and negative outcomes, implications, and our perspectives on these topics. Our analysis is based on actual statements made and prior activities, focusing specifically on the impacts for biotech. While we aim to minimize bias, we acknowledge that personal perspectives inevitably influence conclusions. Please note this was recorded Friday, November 23, before the announcements of the FDA Commissioner, Surgeon General, and Head of the CDC later that day.
Join us as we explore how these political outcomes could shape the future of biotech and healthcare innovation. We welcome your thoughts and look forward to engaging in further discussions as events unfold.
Email us at [email protected] to share your insights or questions.
Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
35 min
November 19, 2024 Biotalk Episode 20: A Conversation with David Harel of CytoReason
On this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, sits down with David Harel, CEO and Co-founder of CytoReason. CytoReason uses AI-powered disease models to transform drug discovery and development, offering pharmaceutical companies insights that reduce both time and costs in bringing new therapies to market.
David shares his journey from private equity to co-founding CytoReason—an idea sparked on a beach in Israel. They discuss why no one had applied molecular data this way before, how CytoReason’s models differ from existing approaches, and the benefits they offer in accelerating drug development. They also delve into the evolving role of AI in drug discovery, the transformative potential it holds, and the critical challenges the industry will face as the field scales.
Reflecting on the importance of diverse thinking in this fast-evolving space, David notes, "Diversity of opinions is critical to making things work. You need diverse perspectives to distill the truth before it's delivered to the customer, who is highly educated and smart. Without tough questions being asked openly, things can fall apart quickly."
David also offers three key pieces of advice for entrepreneurs looking to enter the intersection of AI and life sciences today.Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
Timestamps:
1:14 To start, nothing in your background said AI or disease biology, how did you decide to work in this space and what motivated you to co-found CytoReason?
5:50 Why hadn’t anyone done this before with molecular data? And how was it different from what was being done?
6:54 Did the vision for CytoReason stay the same or evolve?
7:30 The big question, where do you get the data and is it proprietary?
10:28 What do CytoReason’s models do? What is the benefit and how does this help drug development?
13:50 How are you thinking about building your business out to tackle the industry?
22:00 How do you foresee the role of AI evolving in drug discovery and development, and what challenges do you anticipate as the field grows?
28:55 What advice would you give to entrepreneurs looking to enter the intersection of AI and life sciences today?
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35 min
October 18, 2024 Biotalk Episode 19: 2024 Q3 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions
During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2024 Q3 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Each quarter, Locust Walk’s deal team compiles key statistics and trends showcasing the current state of global private and public capital markets, strategic partnerships, and M&A in the biopharma sector. 
In this episode, Geoff provides valuable insights into our report, focusing on critical areas such as: 
Biotech capital markets: The XBI rose 7% in Q3, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by strong clinical readouts and strategic deals, with six IPOs showing strong investor demand.
Private biotech markets: Venture financing dropped to $3.9B across 41 deals, with average deal size decreasing, while Series A and B deals led the market, showing renewed investor interest in early-stage companies.
Strategic transaction activity: Licensing deal value fell by 22%, and M&A shifted to smaller deals focusing on early clinical-stage opportunities, with global deal values remaining down.
Market outlook and advice for the months ahead: Locust Walk expects continued momentum in Q4 due to further Fed rate cuts, advises careful cash management, and foresees a stronger recovery by 2025.
We invite you to listen to our podcast and read our report and welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.
Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
15 min

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