How bad was the "Where's Jackie?" moment? ... Have Republicans found their midterm footing? ... Why Mandela Barnes is slipping ... Why Manchin whfifed on permitting reform ...

Matt attends his high school reunion ... Herschel Walker lowers expectations about a debate with Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Dr. Oz is lowering expectations about John Fetterman's abilities ... Matt raises concerns about the polls. Then, based on Bill's math, Matt predicts Republicans will narrowly take the Senate ... Bill thinks Mandela Barnes' "Defund the Police" rhetoric might have blown his chances of defeating Ron Johnson in Wisconsin ... Matt wonders if Trump reordered politics to the point where states like Nevada—states that seemed to be trending blue—are now competitive ... Matt worries that "Team Normal" in the GOP is normalizing election denying ... Matt laments Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's decision to campaign for Kari Lake. Bill argues this is what Youngkin has to do to be relevant and have a shot at the presidency. Meanwhile, Bill says Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's decision to campaign outside Florida is the weirder story ...

What was Lindsey Graham thinking with his 15-week abortion ban bill? ... Is the GOP going to follow Trump with "younger, smarter" authoritarians? ... How do you know when an incumbent governor is in trouble? ... What does DeSantis get out of sending undocumented immigrants to Martha's Vineyard? ... Can Katie Hobbs get away with not debating Kari Lake? ...

Is John Fetterman's health fair game? ... Are Blake Masters' college emails fair game? ... Are Democrats conflating Trump's threat to democracy with the broader conservative agenda? ...

Is GOP infighting complicating their quest for the Senate? ... How did Democrats snatch Alaska? ... What is Gorbachev’s (and Reagan’s) legacy? ...

Why are Dems overperforming in special elections? ... Why is Dr. Oz so bad? ... Might Dems actually keep the House? ... Does Crist have a prayer? ...

What's happening to the AZ GOP? ... Do Democrats have the edge in the race for the Senate? ... Could DeSantis be in trouble in November? ... Should Republicans be skeptical of the FBI? ... What can we learn from the Kansas abortion referendum? ... Can the IRA save the Democrats? ...

Why did Manchin finally do the reconciliation deal? ... Will reconciliation help Democrats in November? ... Why Biden shouldn't run again ... August 2nd primary preview ...

Why did Maryland Republicans turn Trumpy? ... Are Democrats wrong to help Trumpy candidates win Republican primaries? ... Should Democrats use gerrymandering to box out decent Republicans? ... Is David Frum right that abortion will matter in November? ... Is Joe Manchin helping or hurting Democrats? ...

Is DeSantis eroding Trump's standing in the GOP? ... Why are progressives accusing Biden of not fighting hard enough? ... How the conservative revolt over Harriet Miers doomed Roe ...