Blue Line Futures Macro Corner

Email [email protected] with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.  Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 18, Chart Booklet

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest indications that inflation may be in the process of quickly slowing down. Today's podcast puts the inflation story into context with the latest Fed speak, the Bank of England's intervention in the Gilt market, and much more. 

Access Jannis Meindl's article Poking Holes In The Inflation Balloon expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Market Addictions Get Revealed

12:38 - Disclosure

This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2022.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.  Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 17, Chart Booklet

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest market signals and what they're telling us about Fed policy. Today's podcast also covers the Chinese Yuan and what a depreciation would mean for U.S. treasuries, commodities and stocks.  

Access Jannis Meindl's article Fighting Addictions & Lonely Places expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Market Addictions Get Revealed 

11:24 - Disclosure  

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2022. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.  

Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 16, Chart Booklet

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl dive into the latest datapoints driving Fed policy action, the tug of war between labor & capital as well as investor assumptions priced in.  

Access Jannis Meindl's article Monetary Hostile To Fiscal And Vice Versa expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Potential Fed Error & The Distribution of Profits Between Capital and Labor 

12:49 - Disclosure  

This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2022. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.

Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 15, Chart Booklet

We talk about the Fed's path forward and whether a soft landing, as indicated by some indicators, is indeed possible or whether higher for longer will put financial assets at risk. Paul and Jannis also cover the implications of structural underinvestment and key factors to watch in this week's CPI report.

Access Jannis Meindl's article Higher For Longer & A Soft Landing expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.

This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2022.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research. 

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the shift from the Fed's hawkish rhetoric at Jackson Hole to fiscal dominance. What fiscal spending implies for financial markets and much more covered in today's episode. Access a new chart booklet for free here: Macro Corner Episode 14, Chart Booklet

Access Jannis Meindl's article Fiscal Dominance And The Fed's Amplification Of The Business Cycle to learn more about fiscal dominance.

This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2022. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any questions and be sure to access the chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 13, Chart Booklet

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest macro drivers coming off of Jackson Hole and why the speech was merely a direct shift to data dependence. Making economic stability as a whole conditional on price stability, what does it mean for risk assets going forward and are we due for a multiple re-rating?

If you want to learn more about today's topics, be sure to access Jannis Meindl's article titled The 2nd Fed Error.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosures

0:18 - Macro Corner Intro

1:08 - Why Jackson Hole Wasn't A Pivot

12:55 - Will Value vs. Growth Have to Re-Rate?

17:04 - Global Wage Coordination

19:25 - U.S. Energy Production

This podcast was recorded on August 29, 2022.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Email [email protected] with any follow-up questions to the podcast or anything else on the board!

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the lack of fixed asset spending in old economy sectors and the implications for the Fed as well as the economy as a whole. As output gets constrained by a lack of capital formation, the two also talk about the inflation outlook and current market expectations. Macro Corner Chart Booklet accessible: here.

Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday article published yesterday The Structural Underpinnings of the U.S. Economy Compared to FOMC Projections.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Podcast Intro 

1:31 - Old Economy Constraints 

2:46 - Real vs. Potential GDP Growth 

4:44 - Energy Markets & Open Interest 

11:32 - The U.S. Output Gap 

14:15 - 2-Year Yield Dictating Monetary Policy 

18:20 - Europe's Energy Crisis 

22:24 - Podcast Outro

This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2022.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest on the inflation front, the effects of quantitative tightening, and the relationship between QT and financial assets. We also talk about consumer credit ballooning and the implications for credit card delinquencies going forward. Access the episode's chart booklet: Macro Corner Episode 11, Chart Booklet

Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial Markets Move with Macro Expectations and Expectations Change.

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Podcast Intro 

1:15 - Is The First Inflation Wave Over? 

7:25 - Investor Sentiment 

12:26 - Credit Card Debt Rising 

16:56 - Fed Balance Sheet & Correlation To Risk Assets 

20:37 - Outro & Jackson Hole Talk  

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about secular forces in the U.S. economy while weighing those longer-term forces against short-term market dynamics. The importance of a wage-price spiral, the TINA effect and money flows. Be sure to give the episode a listen!  Be sure to check out this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 10, Chart Booklet 

Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial Risk Asset Pricing is a Function of Flows. 

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Podcast Intro 

2:15 - Stagflation Economy & What Portfolios Work 

7:31 - Is The Wage-Price Spiral Real? 

15:45 - Multiples & TINA 

21:38 - Money Flows 

25:07 - Economic Data & Outro  

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about the current state of monetary policy and why high inflation may reduce the burden of high debt levels. The podcast also covers the most important aspects of last week's Fed meeting and what Jay Powell's dovish tone means for financial assets. Be sure to check out this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 9, Chart Booklet

Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial The Reality of Negative Real Rates that was published on July 31, 2022.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Podcast Intro

1:02 - Negative Real Interest Rates

3:00 - U.S. Debt & Interest Outlay

14:50 - Dovish Fed & Financial Conditions

22:23 - Wage Inflation

28:27 - Loan Growth

30:31 - Outro & Disclosure

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.