Blue Line Futures Macro Corner

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the Fed's QT cycle and how tightening financial conditions affect risk assets. The two also discuss U.S. recession risks and a red-hot warning of the 2s10s yield curve. Towards the end of the podcast, Paul and Jannis talk about global currency markets that reflect the global economic state. Access the episode's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 8, Chart Booklet

Access Jannis Meindl's macro article titled The Withdrawal of Liquidity published on July 24, 2022.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:20 - Fed Policy & Intro

3:14 - U.S. Job Market

5:15 - Fed Treasury Holdings & Quantitative Tightening

10:34 - Bond Market Volatility

13:36 - High Yield Credit

17:08 - Yield Curve

21:16 - Global Currencies & Economic Slowdown

24:09 - Liquidity & Central Bank Divergence

26:10 - ECB Rate Hike & Fragmentation Tool

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Chief Market Strategist Phillip Streible discuss the demand outlook for metals, various macro trends and whether precious metals will regain demand from crypto holders. As metal market experts, the two also talk about their initial introduction to the world of metals, what they find so intriguing, and what they see next within the global macro context. The two also cover the advantages of using futures and  how to strike a balance with your physical coin holdings. Access the episode's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Special Metals Episode, Chart Booklet

Email [email protected] or call 312-278-0500 with any questions! We are here to help with any questions, market strategies, or anything else on the board!

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Intro to Special Metals Episode

1:12 - How Paul & Phil Got Started In Metals

3:28 - Is Gold an Inflation Hedge?

5:50 - Coins vs. Futures

9:00 - Gold Performs when Inflation Falls

10:56 - Silver & Industrial Demand

13:39 - Declining Silver Supply

14:43 - Platinum & Palladium

19:20 - Copper

20:50 - Central Banks, Interest Rates & U.S. Dollar

22:05 - Copper Mining & Supply Shortages

26:00 - Technical Analysis of Metals

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Why MMT doesn't work, tectonic shifts in demographics, and labor unions driving inflation as supply chains get relocated. Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about the flaws of central economic planning, the Fed's balancing act between consumer categories, as well as the current economic state. Access today's chart booklet for free here: Macro Corner Episode 7, Chart Booklet

Access Jannis Meindl's macro article titled Central Economic Planning and Economic Conditions that was published Sunday July 17, 2022.

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Podcast Introduction 

0:59 - Modern Monetary Theory & Sri Lanka 

2:38 - Inflation Spirals 

4:29 - Inflation Mindset in Emerging Markets 

6:28 - Wages & Labor Unions 

8:12 - Golden Age For Blue-collar Workers 

10:14 - China's Demographic Decline 

15:50 - Relocation of Supply Chains 

17:23 - Household & Bank Leverage 

18:56 - Not All Consumers Are Created Equal 

20:15 - Credit Card Debt 

22:12 - The Negative Wealth Effect 

25:02 - Renormalization of Spending 

28:15 - Business Inventories 

30:09 - Labor Force Participation 

33:06 - Disclosure  

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

While western central banks are tightening financial conditions, China is easing on a monetary as well as fiscal basis. Jannis Meindl and Paul Wankmueller, CMT talk about the potential impacts on risk assets and commodities. With 20% of China's copper demand coming from real estate, the country's high levels of grains, and China industrial activity all covered in today's episode, be sure to get your Macro Corner chart booklet: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 6

The booklet comes in addition to Jannis Meindl's weekly macro article Top Things to Watch you can access here: The China Divergence and Commodities

Email [email protected] or call 312-278-0500 with any questions -- our trade desk is here to help with anything on the board!

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Topic Overview and Emerging Market Stress

2:17 - The China Divergence

8:30 - China Business Conditions

12:13 - Industrial Profits in China

14:19 - The Strategic Importance of Food & Energy

19:43 - China Real Estate Climate

21:29 - Strategic Petroleum Reserves

25:55 - Gauging Oil Demand

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Emerging market debt has seen a lot of stress lately. On today's podcast we talk about capital allocation across EM as investors demand higher returns. Paul Wankmueller and Jannis Meindl also speak about the latest from Jay Powell and central bankers globally as the Dollar is causing havoc for debtor nations. Additionally, the episode runs through China's geostrategic pathway and how the country is running on a diametrically opposite policy trajectory to the rest of the world. This podcast was recorded on 07/05/2022 and alongside the episode, you can access our free Macro Corner Chart Booklet covering a wealth of data here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 5

The booklet comes in addition to Jannis Meindl's weekly macro article Top Things to Watch you can access here: Emerging Markets and Financial Conditions

Email [email protected] or call 312-278-0500 with any questions -- our trade desk is here to help with anything on the board!

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Introduction

1:25 - Stress in Emerging Market Debt

9:10 - Brazilian Debt & EM Contagion

10:56 - China's Policy Pathway & Stocks

16:15 - Tight Labor Market Enabling Hawkish Fed

18:30 - U.S. Financial Conditions

19:56 - Pricing in Peak Inflation

24:00 - Closing Thoughts

24:59 - Disclosure

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

What are the implications of this commodities sell-off within the context of structural undersupply, is the Fed handcuffed by debt and what is happening with emerging market debt? In today's podcast, recorded on 6/27/2022, Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the current macro circumstances. Alongside today's episode, you can access our free Macro Corner Chart Booklet covering a wealth of data here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 4

The booklet comes in addition to Jannis Meindl's weekly macro article Top Things to Watch you can access here: Commodities and Fed Dilemma

Email [email protected] or call 312-278-0500 with any questions -- our trade desk is here to help with anything on the board!

Timecodes:

0:00 - Disclosure

0:18 - Introduction

1:58 - Fertilizer Price Disinflation

6:14 - Commodities Disinflation Broadly

7:11 - Industrial Metals Sell-Off

7:55 - Copper & China Credit Impulse

10:18 - Chile, Copper & Weaponization Of Commodities

11:56 - End Of Month/Quarter Rebalancing & Energy Markets

13:01 - Fed Dilemma

15:40 - Debt Handcuffing Central Banks

16:58 - US Tax Receipts & Savings

19:54 - Emerging Market Debt

20:42 - Argentina Credit Conditions

21:44 - Exporting Inflation To Emerging Markets

23:54 - BRICS Alliance

24:46 - IMF, China & Emerging Market Debt

26:10 - Closing Thoughts

27:10 - Disclosure

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Are the Fed and central banks globally in a position to pull the liquidity rug from financial assets? In today's podcast, recorded on 6/20/2022, Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the monetary environment. Alongside today's episode, you can access our free Macro Corner Chart Booklet covering a wealth of data here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 3

The booklet comes in addition to Jannis Meindl's weekly macro article Top Things to Watch you can access here: Central Banks At The Crossroads Top Things to Watch this Week

Email [email protected] or call 312-278-0500 with any questions -- our trade desk is here to help with anything on the board!   

Timecodes: 

0:00 - Disclosure 

0:18 - Introduction 

2:45 - M2 & Fed Balance Sheet 

5:30 - High Yield Credit 

7:55 - Fed Funds Futures Indicated Yield 

9:11 - Business Sentiment (NFIB) 

11:49 - Freight Rates Cooling Off 

14:26 - European Government Bond Yields 

15:48 - Credit Default Swaps in Europe 

16:03 - Credit Default Swaps in Europe History 

17:05 - Recap 

17:53 - Disclosure 

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In today's episode, recorded on June 13, 2022, Paul Wankmueller and Jannis Meindl talk about US debt, monetary policy and consumer sentiment. Don't miss our Macro Corner Chart Booklet! It complements each podcast episode with a wealth of data and comes in addition to Jannis Meindl's weekly macro article Top Things to Watch.

In today's episode, recorded on June 6, 2022, Paul Wankmueller and Jannis Meindl talk about energy markets, inflation, the wealth gap and services spending. Be sure to check out Jannis Meindl's Top Things to Watch article from which this podcast's ideas come from: Commodities, Inflation and Labor Market | Top Things to Watch this Week