BlueDot Narrated

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

I am approaching the end of my AI governance PhD, and I’ve spent about 2.5 years as a researcher at FHI. During that time, I’ve learnt a lot about the formula for successful early-career research.

This post summarises my advice for people in the first couple of years. Research is really hard, and I want people to avoid the mistakes I’ve made.

Original text:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jfHPBbYFzCrbdEXXd/how-to-succeed-as-an-early-stage-researcher-the-lean-startup#Conclusion

Author:
Toby Shevlane

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

This introduces the concept of Pareto frontiers. The top comment by Rob Miles also ties it to comparative advantage.

While reading, consider what Pareto frontiers your project could place you on.

Original text:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/being-the-pareto-best-in-the-world

Author:
John Wentworth

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

(In the process of answering an email, I accidentally wrote a tiny essay about writing. I usually spend weeks on an essay. This one took 67 minutes—23 of writing, and 44 of rewriting.)

Original text:
https://paulgraham.com/writing44.html

Author:
Paul Graham

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

I’ve been obsessed with managing information, and communications in a remote team since Get on Board started growing. Reducing the bus factor is a primary motivation — but another just as important is diminishing reliance on synchronicity. When what I know is documented and accessible to others, I’m less likely to be a bottleneck for anyone else in the team. So if I’m busy, minding family matters, on vacation, or sick, I won’t be blocking anyone.

This, in turn, gives everyone in the team the freedom to build their own work schedules according to their needs, work from any time zone, or enjoy more distraction-free moments. As I write these lines, most of the world is under quarantine, relying on non-stop video calls to continue working. Needless to say, that is not a sustainable long-term work schedule.

Original text:
https://www.getonbrd.com/blog/public-by-default-how-we-manage-information-visibility-at-get-on-board

Author:
Sergio Nouvel

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

Feedback is essential for learning. Whether you’re studying for a test, trying to improve in your work or want to master a difficult skill, you need feedback.

The challenge is that feedback can often be hard to get. Worse, if you get bad feedback, you may end up worse than before.

Original text:
https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2019/01/24/how-to-get-feedback/

Author:
Scott Young

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

Alternative title: “When should you assume that what could go wrong, will go wrong?” Thanks to Mary Phuong and Ryan Greenblatt for helpful suggestions and discussion, and Akash Wasil for some edits. In discussions of AI safety, people often propose the assumption that something goes as badly as possible. Eliezer Yudkowsky in particular has argued for the importance of security mindset when thinking about AI alignment. I think there are several distinct reasons that this might be the right assumption to make in a particular situation. But I think people often conflate these reasons, and I think that this causes confusion and mistaken thinking. So I want to spell out some distinctions. Throughout this post, I give a bunch of specific arguments about AI alignment, including one argument that I think I was personally getting wrong until I noticed my mistake yesterday (which was my impetus for thinking about this topic more and then writing this post). I think I’m probably still thinking about some of my object level examples wrong, and hope that if so, commenters will point out my mistakes.

Original text:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTvBSFrXhZfL8vr5a/worst-case-thinking-in-ai-alignment

Narrated for AI Safety Fundamentals by Perrin Walker of TYPE III AUDIO.

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A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

This article explains key drivers of AI progress, explains how compute is calculated, as well as looks at how the amount of compute used to train AI models has increased significantly in recent years.

Original text: https://epochai.org/blog/compute-trends

Author(s): Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos.

A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses.

Previously, I argued that emergent phenomena in machine learning mean that we can’t rely on current trends to predict what the future of ML will be like. In this post, I will argue that despite this, empirical findings often do generalize very far, including across “phase transitions” caused by emergent behavior.

This might seem like a contradiction, but actually I think divergence from current trends and empirical generalization are consistent. Findings do often generalize, but you need to think to determine the right generalization, and also about what might stop any given generalization from holding.

I don’t think many people would contest the claim that empirical investigation can uncover deep and generalizable truths. This is one of the big lessons of physics, and while some might attribute physics’ success to math instead of empiricism, I think it’s clear that you need empirical data to point to the right mathematics.

However, just invoking physics isn’t a good argument, because physical laws have fundamental symmetries that we shouldn’t expect in machine learning. Moreover, we care specifically about findings that continue to hold up after some sort of emergent behavior (such as few-shot learning in the case of ML). So, to make my case, I’ll start by considering examples in deep learning that have held up in this way. Since “modern” deep learning hasn’t been around that long, I’ll also look at examples from biology, a field that has been around for a relatively long time and where More Is Different is ubiquitous (see Appendix: More Is Different In Other Domains).

Source:

https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/empirical-findings-generalize-surprisingly-far/

Narrated for AI Safety Fundamentals by Perrin Walker of TYPE III AUDIO.

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A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses. 

Right now I’m working on finding a good objective to optimize with ML, rather than trying to make sure our models are robustly optimizing that objective. (This is roughly “outer alignment.”) That’s pretty vague, and it’s not obvious whether “find a good objective” is a meaningful goal rather than being inherently confused or sweeping key distinctions under the rug. So I like to focus on a more precise special case of alignment: solve alignment when decisions are “low stakes.” I think this case effectively isolates the problem of “find a good objective” from the problem of ensuring robustness and is precise enough to focus on productively. In this post I’ll describe what I mean by the low-stakes setting, why I think it isolates this subproblem, why I want to isolate this subproblem, and why I think that it’s valuable to work on crisp subproblems. 

Source:

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/TPan9sQFuPP6jgEJo/low-stakes-alignment

Narrated for AI Safety Fundamentals by TYPE III AUDIO.

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A podcast by BlueDot Impact.

Audio versions of blogs and papers from BlueDot courses. 

Using hard multiple-choice reading comprehension questions as a testbed, we assess whether presenting humans with arguments for two competing answer options, where one is correct and the other is incorrect, allows human judges to perform more accurately, even when one of the arguments is unreliable and deceptive. If this is helpful, we may be able to increase our justified trust in language-model-based systems by asking them to produce these arguments where needed. Previous research has shown that just a single turn of arguments in this format is not helpful to humans. However, as debate settings are characterized by a back-and-forth dialogue, we follow up on previous results to test whether adding a second round of counter-arguments is helpful to humans. We find that, regardless of whether they have access to arguments or not, humans perform similarly on our task. These findings suggest that, in the case of answering reading comprehension questions, debate is not a helpful format.

Source:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.10860

Narrated for AI Safety Fundamentals by Perrin Walker of TYPE III AUDIO.

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A podcast by BlueDot Impact.