businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

The Sensex and the Nifty have hit new highs recently. Do the current market valuations reflect a balance between the earnings growth of India Inc. and the market run-up? In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline's Parvatha Vardhini C and Sumit Jain, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, ASK Investment Managers, discuss the trends that will drive the Indian markets in 2024.

In the podcast, Jain explained that investing in businesses should be based on their specific merits and potential growth, and cited the importance of earnings delivery and longevity in the market. He also predicted a decent earnings growth for the Nifty to continue in the year ahead. He acknowledged that there are multiple challenges such as global economic slowdown and rural sector issues that could play spoilsport in the short-term. However, he clarified that while the market may fluctuate, the long-term growth prospects for India appear positive.

Regarding investment strategy, Jain stressed the importance of investing in businesses with solid fundamentals, strong management and high return on capital employed, irrespective of short-term market events. He also predicted opportunities in the larger manufacturing segment, capital goods, logistics, premium consumption, and finance, aligning with India's potential for growth in manufacturing and domestic resurgence. 

The conversation also touches on the outlook for the US economy and the Chinese slowdown and its possible effects on India Inc and Indian markets in 2024. 

Listen to this podcast to gain an understanding about Jain's market outlook and his investment philosophy. 

(Host: Parvatha Vardhini C, Producer: V Nivedita)

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this edition of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Raja Simhan talks to J Krishnan of S Natesa Iyer Logistics LLP, about the repercussions of recent geopolitical events on global trade.   

The focal point is the diversion of container ships via the Cape of Good Hope, a shift triggered by attacks on container ships orchestrated by Iranian-backed Houthi militants. This strategic rerouting around the southern tip of Africa raises concerns about the pivotal Suez Canal, a crucial maritime route connecting Asia, Europe, and the US.

The podcast begins as Raja touches upon the uncertainties faced by the marine world since the pandemic, citing disruptions such as the Suez Canal blockade, ongoing issues at the Panama Canal, and recent conflicts in the Red Sea.

The conversation delves into the complexities of the crisis, from the origins of the conflict involving Houthi rebels to the economic implications of rerouting container ships. Krishnan's analysis extends to the potential solutions, including international efforts like Operation Prosperity, which aims to secure safe passage for maritime trade.

The episode sheds light on the practical challenges faced by shippers, increased transit times, rising freight costs, and the domino effect on end customers. Krishnan emphasizes the far-reaching consequences for global trade and, notably, the Indian export sector, where the impact of the Suez disruption is deeply felt.

The podcast concludes with a reflection on the broader implications for maritime trade, the potential shrinkage of capacity, and the necessity for India to bolster its national shipping capacity.  

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(Host: Raja Simhan, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s S Ronendra SIngh talks to Srikumar Krishnamurthy , Senior Vice President & Co-Group Head - Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited, to understand the various facets of the automotive industry, primarily focusing on its performance, challenges, and trends.

The discussion commenced with a retrospective look at the automotive sector, which recorded high vehicle sales across segments after the lull bought by the Covid-19 pandemic. Commercial vehicles and two-wheelers faced notable setbacks due to economic activity restrictions and price hikes, while the passenger vehicle segment encountered supply constraints, primarily linked to semiconductor shortages.

The conversation pivoted towards the increasing popularity of SUVs, attributing their rise to changing customer preferences such as higher ground clearance, enhanced driving quality, and seating comfort. This shift influenced the market as the demand for sedans and small cars witnessed a relative decline.

Insights were shared on the impact of electrification trends on the market, highlighting a relatively slower growth rate in the electric vehicle (EV) segment for passenger vehicles. It was noted that while EV sales in commercial vehicles could grow, overall adoption remains relatively low due to factors like infrastructure limitations, consumer mindsets, and awareness.

The discussion also touched upon factors affecting two-wheeler sales, including significant price hikes and the impact of interest rates on financing. The conversation concluded with expectations for a sustained growth trajectory in various automotive segments, albeit with varying degrees of impact from electrification trends.

In essence, the conversation provided a comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry’s dynamics, spanning demand, trends, challenges, and prospects across different vehicle segments and their relationship with emerging electrification trends.

In this edition of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline’s Hamsini Karthik talks to Srinath Sridharan, author, policy researcher and corporate advisor, following up on the Reserve Bank of India’s new rules on bank investments in AIFs.

The podcast begins by discussing whether the RBI's move is a step towards addressing concerns in private credit. The discussion delves into the potential impact on private credit funds, especially those associated with regulated entities.

Sridharan decodes RBI's message, emphasising the central bank's concerns about structures outside its regulatory regime and the need for mark-to-market valuations. The conversation highlights the rarity of the RBI explicitly expressing worries, particularly about evergreening practices.

Hamsini and Sridharan explore the potential consequences for banks and NBFCs. Sridharan notes the urgency conveyed by RBI, requiring entities to unwind certain structures within 30 days. The podcast touches upon the harshness of the circular and its potential implications for the financial sector.

The conversation takes an interesting turn as they discuss the entry of large family offices and wealthy individuals into the private credit market. Hamsini raises the question of whether these sophisticated investors are capable of understanding the risks involved in the high-yield private credit segment.

Towards the end of the podcast, the focus shifts to the responsibility of managing non-performing assets in the private credit market. Sridharan discusses the need for a joint ownership model and questions the suitability of current market participants, suggesting that a different breed of professionals may be required to manage this complex landscape.

(Host: Hamsini Karthik, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar, Siddharth Mathew Cherian) 

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

COP 28 recently wrapped up in Dubai. The meeting has brought some great insights into different aspects, including climate change, health, and agriculture. In this State of the Economy podcast, Dr Srinath Reddy, cardiologist and founder and former president Public Health Foundation of India, talks to Jyothi Datta on the unprecedented inclusion of health in the climate change agenda. 

The podcast emphasised on the escalating impact of climate change on human health. Not only are extreme weather events becoming more frequent, but there's also a heightened vulnerability to infectious and non-infectious diseases. Dr. Reddy stressed the urgent need to place health at the core of climate change discussions. 

Dr. Reddy stated that there are specific health challenges posed by climate change, including the immediate impacts of excessive heat, vector-borne diseases, and waterborne diseases. He highlighted the importance of building climate-smart and resilient health systems to mitigate these challenges effectively. 

The discussion extended to the broader implications on mental health and non-communicable diseases. The rise in air pollution, exacerbated by climate change, was identified as a significant contributor to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory issues, and even cancers. 

A key recommendation from Dr. Reddy was the necessity to strengthen primary healthcare services, promoting early detection and disease prevention. He emphasised the role of technology, such as telehealth services, in making healthcare more accessible and reducing the carbon footprint associated with extensive commuting to large hospitals. 

The conversation seamlessly transitioned to the critical link between climate change and agriculture, shedding light on the impact on crop quantity and quality. Dr. Reddy underscored the need for climate-resilient crops and sustainable agricultural practices to address the impending challenges of food scarcity and nutrient deficiencies. 

Furthermore, the discussion expanded to the often-overlooked connections between climate change, deforestation, and the increased risk of zoonotic diseases. The disruption of habitats and migration patterns could lead to the transmission of infections between animals and humans, potentially triggering epidemics. 

In addressing these challenges, Dr. Reddy advocated for a holistic approach that involves reprioritising agricultural production, moving away from water-intensive and environmentally harmful crops. The need for responsible land use and reduced deforestation emerged as critical components of climate-smart food and health systems. Dr. Reddy emphasised on the proactive role that individuals, policymakers, and healthcare providers can play in building a sustainable and resilient future.  

(Host: Jyothi Datta, Producer: Anjana PV) 

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this State of the Economy, Jyoti Bantia talks to Karan Mehta, Venture Principal at Green Frontier Capital, and Jaydip Mukherjee, Co-Founder of Snap-E Cabs, about the climate tech startups landscape in India. 

The discussion covers the recent surge in funding, emerging sectors in climate tech, government policies influencing investments, and the challenges and innovations within the industry. 

Karan Mehta highlights the significant capital inflow into sectors like renewable energy, electric mobility, and sustainable agriculture. He emphasises the growing interest from investors and entrepreneurs alike, driven by the economic opportunities in climate tech.  

Jaydip Mukherjee provides insights from E-mobility space, discussing the importance of environment-friendly solutions and the evolving landscape of technology in this sector. He emphasises the role of government policies and the need for adaptive, evolving frameworks to support heavy asset-oriented businesses like charging infrastructure. 

The conversation delves into specific areas gaining attention in climate tech, such as carbon accounting and renewable energy, with both guests expressing optimism about the sector's growth and potential for India to become a global leader in climate change mitigation.  

Karan Mehta envisions India as a hub for making innovation affordable and scalable in the global climate change mitigation story. Jaydip Mukherjee sees India becoming an innovation hub for E-mobility, anticipates consolidation opportunities in the mobility services sector, and envisions a transition from an informal to an organized industry.  

(Host: Jyoti Bantia, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessLine's Amiti Sen talks to Mukesh Bhatnagar, Former Professor at Centre for WTO Studies, about MC 13, where India will be navigating complex negotiations to safeguard its development needs and secure exemptions for small-scale fishers.  

Amiti starts the podcast by talking about the forthcoming WTO Ministerial Conference, MC 13, scheduled for February 2024 in Abu Dhabi. She goes on to examine the ongoing negotiations in Geneva surrounding the Agreement on ending harmful fisheries subsidies. While partial agreements were reached during MC 12 in 2022, significant aspects of this agreement are still under discussion.   

According to UNCTAD, global marine fish stocks at biologically unsustainable levels have resulted in staggering economic losses. The WTO discussions aim to curb these harmful subsidies, raising complex questions about the shared responsibility of developed and developing nations and the potential for environmental carve-outs.  

The discussion goes into detail about India's active engagement in negotiations, highlighting its evolving stance on disciplining fishery subsidies. Bhatnagar elucidates India's emphasis on securing special and differential treatment for developing countries, particularly in the context of distant water fishing.  

The podcast goes on to provide a nuanced understanding of India's challenges and interests in the negotiations, emphasising the importance of special and differential treatment.  

The episode concludes by visiting ongoing discussions and future developments in global economic policies. 

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(Host: Amiti Sen, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar and Anjana PV)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this State of the Economy podcast, Subramani Ra Mancombu talks to Ravinder Grover, Programme Lead of HarvestPlus, to discuss the issue of malnutrition in India and the role bio-fortified crops can play in addressing it.

National Family Health Service data reveals alarming statistics: 36% of children under five experience stunted growth, 19% are at risk of malnutrition, and 32% are underweight.

HarvestPlus specialises in biofortified crops abundant in vital nutrients like iron, zinc, and vitamin E. The Health and Nutrition of School-Age Children and Farming Families in India (HaNSA) program seeks to enrich the nutritional content of government-sponsored meals for school-aged children by introducing biofortified crops such as millets, zinc rice, and red lentils.

Launching in Maharashtra and expanding to Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, the program targets 2 million children over the next five years.

HarvestPlus's collaborations extend beyond the government to include partnerships with the National Rural Livelihood Mission, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Education, and the Food Corporation of India.These alliance can combat malnutrition and foster acceptance of bio-fortified crops.

Ravinder Grover underscores the programme's success, noting that around 7 million farmers in India are already cultivating bio-fortified crops.

Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu; Producers: V Nivedita, Amitha Rajkumar, Siddharth MC.

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline's Abhishek Law talks to Manoj Gaur, Chairman of Credai, about the current outlook of the real estate market. Gaur starts by observing a significant shift in buyer preferences post-COVID. He goes on to state that people now seek better homes with superior amenities, and view real estate not just as an investment, but as a crucial asset for living through challenging times. The podcast goes on to note the permanence of this change, evident in the increased demand for residential housing across India over the past year. The lockdown experience led individuals to value their homes more, prompting a surge in the residential real estate market. 

As the discussion progresses, the attention turns to the future, specifically the last quarter of the fiscal year and the subsequent year. Gaur anticipates high demand due to limited inventories and challenges in launching new projects. He emphasises the scarcity of clear-title land suitable for quality projects, which may contribute to sustained demand in the coming months. 

The conversation touches upon the topic of affordable housing, where Gaur points out the decline in demand for smaller apartments in metros due to increased construction and compliance costs. He suggests a revision of the definition of affordable housing to align with the economic realities of different cities. 

The podcast concludes with insights into stalled projects, legal challenges, and potential solutions being explored by the government and local bodies, expressing hope that within one to two years, many of these issues will likely be addressed.  

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(Host: Abhishek Law, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar and Anjana PV)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this episode of the "State of the Economy" podcast, Chitra Narayanan talks to Shiv Shivakumar, Operating Partner at Advent International, shares insights on the significant marketing trends of 2023 and predictions for 2024. Key highlights include the transformative impact of AI, the challenge of higher food prices on brand strategies, and the persisting reliance on price and celebrity-centric marketing in India. The discussion also touches on the evolving landscape of e-commerce, the changing dynamics of consumer behavior, and the potential dominance of Gen Z in shaping marketing narratives. Additionally, the episode explores the ebb and flow of metaverse discussions and its future implications.

(Host: Chitra Narayanan; Producer: Darshan Sanghvi)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.