businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Subramani Ra Mancombu, Head of Commodities and Agri-Business, delves into the dynamics of the platinum market. Despite platinum prices slipping below $900 an ounce due to uncertainties over China's economic recovery, the demand for this precious metal is on the rise in India. With gold prices soaring, platinum's competitive edge is explored, and the Platinum Guild International (PGI) aims to enhance its popularity among the digital-savvy youth demographic. In an exclusive interview, Vaishali Banerjee, Managing Director, Platinum Guild International (PGI) - India, outlines the strategic initiatives to captivate consumers and sustain growth, emphasizing the emotional significance and cultural importance of platinum in the Indian market.

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu, Producer: Darshan Sanghvi) 

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this State of The Economy podcast, Nabodita Ganguly talks to Anurag Mittal,Anurag Mittal, Head - Fixed Income, UTI AMC, covering various aspects of the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on interest rates, the US dollar, and Indian bond yields.

Anurag Mittal begins by addressing the anticipation of interest rate cuts and the cautious approach of central banks, emphasising the need for a thorough evaluation of economic data before implementing any policy changes. He highlights the sequencing of events, indicating that a shift in policy language and liquidity management would precede any significant easing of monetary policy.

Mittal shares insights into the factors influencing the strength of the US dollar. He notes the importance of global economic conditions, particularly in the Eurozone and Japan, in determining the trajectory of the dollar.

Mittal provides a comprehensive analysis on the potential decline of the dollar’s dominance, suggesting that while there are talks, the dollar’s status remains robust due to limited alternatives for transparent and convertible currencies.

The discussion transitions to Indian bond yields, with Mittal pointing out the attractiveness of Indian bonds, especially with the expected policy easing and inclusion in the J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Bond Index. He explains the potential for a rally in bonds from a tactical perspective but cautions that the long-term trend depends on the level of disinflation.

The conversation concludes with Mittal sharing insights into the inflation scenario in India, discussing the challenges posed by food prices and the expectations for a shallow rate-cut cycle. He provides valuable insights for foreign investors, recommending moderate-duration funds for those with a longer investment horizon and suggesting short-term options for those with a shorter horizon.

Hosts: Nabodita Ganguly,Producer: Lokeshwarri SK. 

Lay-offs and poor campus recruitment dominated the news cycle in 2023. What is the current state of tech talent opportunities in India's job market? In this State of the Economy podcast hosted by businessline's Haripriya Sureban, Rajesh Chandran, head of Talent Acquisition at Happiest Minds Technologies and Aditya Mishra, MD & CEO of CIEL HR, provide insights into the landscape and offer guidance for the country's tech talent.

Aditya Mishra observed that the Indian tech sector was reeling under the impact of a funding winter for start-ups and global headwinds on IT services. Despite this, he noted that there is a demand for specific skills like cybersecurity, full-stack development, and analytics. Rajesh Chandran noted that the IT services sector was changing rapidly, and the focus is shifting to shorter-term projects, impacting hiring strategies and focusing on utilizing existing talent.

Both speakers highlighted the importance of upskilling for freshers and professionals, highlighting the need for continuous learning in an ever-evolving tech landscape. They also encouraged flexibility in roles, salaries, and locations to increase job prospects.

Regarding graduates' career paths, both speakers recommended exploring opportunities outside the IT sector, particularly in BFSI, pharma, engineering, and construction sectors. They encouraged graduates to grasp any opportunity for exposure through internships and to remain open to learning across domains, as digitisation impacts every industry.

Listen to the podcast to gain a comprehensive view of the current challenges and opportunities in the Indian tech talent landscape, and how people can get jobs bt broadening perspectives beyond traditional IT roles.

(Host: Haripriya Sureban, Producer: V Nivedita) 

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this episode of businessline's State of the Economy Podcast, the host, Parvatha Vardhini, talks to Anuj Kapoor, MD, and CEO of Private Wealth and Alternatives Asset Management at JM Financial. With over 26 years of experience in financial services, he shares valuable insights into the current state of the equity markets. 

The discussion kicks off with an analysis of recent market trends, addressing the impact of geopolitical events like the Israel-Palestinian conflict and fluctuations in U.S. bond yields. Kapoor expresses optimism, citing a rebound in the markets fueled by resilient earnings, a ceasefire in the conflict, positive developments in oil prices, and a decrease in U.S. bond yields. 

He anticipates the positive trend to continue, supported by strong domestic flows and favourable earnings expectations.  He identifies political risk as a remote concern, emphasising the likelihood of an extended bull run if the BJP retains power. 

Kapoor also shared insights into the corporate earnings landscape. He highlights the value proposition in large-cap stocks and advises caution in mid-caps to small-cap sectors, suggesting a wait for more favourable valuations.

The focus shifts to global economic factors, particularly the outlook on interest rates in the U.S. Kapoor acknowledges the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy, expecting interest rates to remain stable until mid-2024, followed by a potential rate cut cycle. The conversation broadens to include China's economic slowdown. Kapoor identifies both positive and negative implications for India from this, focusing on the potential for increased global investment in Indian markets as an alternative. 

The podcast concludes with a glimpse into the mindset of high net worth and family office investors, focusing their institutional-like approach to investments and risk management. Kapoor also discusses the rising interest in alternative investments, showcasing the diverse opportunities available to investors in India.  

(Host: Parvatha Vardhini, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar and Nabodita Ganguly) 

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Rishi Ranjan Kala talks to Akshay Singhal, founder and CEO of Log9 materials, about challenges related to EV’s and clean energy storage globally.  

The podcast starts by emphasising the pivotal role EVs play in India's efforts to decarbonise the transport and logistics sectors, identifying them as major consumers and polluters in the country. The conversation goes on to talk about the adoption of EVs in the logistics sector. Singhal sheds light on the challenges faced by logistics companies, especially concerning the reliability of batteries and vehicles. He points out that many batteries were not designed to operate efficiently in Indian conditions, leading to quick degradation and performance issues.  

He further goes on to talk about the impact of EVs on climate change, emphasising the need to electrify the last mile segment first. He articulates the unique challenges and opportunities presented by the Indian ecosystem and the global South, advocating for a holistic approach from materials to battery packs. 

The discussion extends its focus to government policies and their execution. Singhal talks about the alignment of intent in policy frameworks but highlights the need for optimisation in execution, especially in accessing incentives and streamlining processes for private players. 

Addressing the concern of public charging infrastructure, the podcast highlights the challenges faced by logistics companies in Kerala and explores potential solutions. Singhal stresses the importance of dynamic and pragmatic approaches in government machinery to ensure the efficient setup and running of charging stations. 

The podcast concludes by Singhal addressing the issues of financing in the industry and how to tackle that in the log run.  

(Host: Rishi Ranjan Kala, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar and Anjana PV) 

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Jyothi Datta talks to Dr V Mohan, Chairman, Madras Diabetes Research Foundation and Dr Mohan’s Diabetes Specialities Centre, about the nuances of diabetes and the latest developments in treatments and medications.

The podcast begins by talking about the implications of living with diabetes, especially for a country like India, which houses the second-largest population of people with diabetes after China. Dr. Mohan emphasises that periodic screening is crucial to identify diabetes early and prevent uncontrolled diabetes from progressing for many years.

Dutta highlights that a significant number of people with diabetes remain unaware of their condition. The discussion continues to acknowledge this and emphasises the importance of periodic screening to detect diabetes and pre-diabetes early.

The conversation then shifts to the introduction of new developments in diabetes medications, particularly injectables like semaglutide and others gaining popularity globally. Dr. Mohan provides insights into the effectiveness of these drugs in controlling diabetes and achieving weight reduction.

Dr. Mohan explores the accessibility of these drugs in India, addressing concerns about their high cost. He goes on to acknowledge the effectiveness of these drugs but raises the issue of affordability for a common person. He suggests exploring the production of generics or biosimilars by Indian manufacturers to make these medications more accessible. The discussion expands to cover the recent launch of a biosimilar of insulin aspart in India and its significance in making insulin more affordable for patients.

As the conversation concludes, Dr. Mohan offers key messages to those living with diabetes, encouraging regular check-ups, adherence to medications, and adopting a healthy lifestyle.

(Host: Jyothi Datta, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar and Anjana PV) 

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this State of the Economy podcast, businessLine’s KR Srivats, Senior Deputy Editor, discusses the recent landmark Supreme Court judgement on personal guarantors' insolvency in India with Dhananjay Kumar, Partner, Cyril Amarchand & Mangaldas, a leading law firm. 

By upholding the constitutional validity of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) provisions related to personal guarantors' insolvency (Sections 95 to 100), the three-member SC Bench led by Chief Justice of India D YChandrachud has, in its verdict in the cases of Dilip B. Jiwrajka vs. Union of India and others, strengthened the hands of banks and other creditors efforts in using this route for loan recoveries.

In one go, the apex court dismissed 384 petitions that raised several legal challenges in the implementation of the insolvency process on personal guarantors. The quietus seen on this front in the last two years because of the legal challenges has come to an end, thanks to the SC judgement.

In this podcast, Dhananjay Kumar delves into the legal impact of the judgment and its potential as a game-changer for banks in recovering corporate dues from personal guarantors.

With this SC judgement, banks will certainly go after personal guarantors in respect of corporates, where there have been huge haircuts on corporate borrowers, according to Kumar.

It will certainly encourage banks—who were sitting on the wall—to go after the personal guarantors for recovery and file insolvency applications against them in a big way.

With this judgement and given the number of pending petitions, the time is ripe for banks and creditors to consider innovative tools for recovery from personal guarantors.

Kumar felt that a lot of opportunity for innovation has arisen in cross-border situations where money has left shores and money has been deployed in other structures.

Put simply, creditors can even reach overseas jurisdictions to recover assets held abroad by personal guarantors. There is going to be an opportunity for banks to recover more money than what has been given under the IBC repayment plan for personal guarantors, says Kumar.

Not only that, the latest SC judgement will bolster the flow of credit to the industrial sector, as banks now know they have a powerful tool at their disposal to recover money should the loan go bad.

However, Kumar felt there was also a need for the government to strengthen the DRT and SARFAESI structures so that insolvency is not the only effective tool available for creditors to recover money.

When you want to ramp up industrial credit in the economy, you must also give powerful tools to creditors for recovery. Strengthening the DRT and SARFAESI systems is also equally important, emphasises Kumar.

SC has clarified that all personal guarantees issued prior to November 2019 will also be subject to these insolvency provisions of the IBC, and creditors will be able to move against the personal guarantors to seek their recoveries, says Kumar. In essence, banks can go after personal guarantors for their past guarantees as well.

So does all this mean that the SC judgement has come as a huge setback for personal guarantors? Not really, says Kumar, who sees this IBC insolvency process as a second opportunity for personal guarantors to deal with issues in a peaceful way. This is an excellent mechanism not only for the banks' loan recovery but also for the liability management of personal guarantors. This landmark SC judgement is a win-win for lenders and personal guarantors and a game changer for the IBC landscape, for sure.

(Host: KR Srivats, Producer: Nabodita Ganguly) 

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Subramani Ra Mancombu talks to Manav Modi, Research Analyst Commodities and Currencies, Motilal Oswal Financial Services about the current state and future prospects for gold. 

The podcast starts by highlighting the recent firmness in gold prices, hovering around $1990.00 an ounce, marking a six-month high. The journey throughout the year has been marked by volatility, with prices fluctuating between $1800 and $2050 per ounce. Various factors, including high-interest rates and geopolitical crises such as the Ukraine war and the Hamas-Israel standoff, have contributed to the swing in gold's value. 

Modi provides a comprehensive overview, discussing the impact of high-interest rates and geopolitical tensions on gold prices. He anticipates that high-interest rates will persist until the first quarter of 2024, after which central banks might initiate a shift. The Reserve Bank of India has been actively buying gold, leveraging the depreciation of the rupee. 

The conversation doesn’t limit its focus to gold; he also shares insights into silver and emphaises its high-beta nature and potential for outperforming gold.  

The conversation goes beyond gold; he also shares valuable suggestions to investors and buyers. He advises keeping a close watch on central bank policies, geopolitical events, and economic data.  

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar) 

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In the latest episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, businessline's Hamsini Karthik engages in a discussion with Rajan Pental, Executive Director at YES BANK, a veteran in the banking sector with a focus on the retail space. The central topic of discussion revolves around the recent developments in risk-weighted assets (RWA) in the banking industry, particularly focusing on the unsecured portfolio. 

He provides valuable insights into the recent changes implemented by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), specifically the increase in risk weights on consumer durable loans, unsecured personal loans, and credit cards. The regulatory move aims to address potential risks in these segments, signaling a proactive approach to risk management. 

Hansini raises pertinent questions about the implications of these changes on the lending landscape. She highlights concerns about whether banks will witness lower growth and if they will be able to adjust loan pricing to accommodate the increased capital requirements. The key concern is whether the additional costs will be passed on to borrowers and if there is sufficient demand to absorb these higher costs. 

Pental responds by emphasising that the regulator has provided ample time for the industry to prepare for such changes, indicating a cautious approach. He expresses that the inclusion of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in the regulations aligns with the regulator's goal of maintaining control over certain customer profiles. 

Addressing the issue of pricing, Pental assures that banks are adequately capitalised, and the overall return on capital is well-managed. However, he acknowledges the need for adjustments in pricing for specific products with elevated risk weights. He stresses the importance of finding the right balance between interest rates and their impact on consumer demand. 

The conversation delves into the impact on digital lending, where innovative repayment mechanisms such as Equated Daily Installments (EDI) have become popular. He believes that prudent pricing decisions need to be made for each segment, considering the associated risks. He suggests that while there may be adjustments in pricing, the fundamental structure of products is likely to remain. 

As the discussion progresses, the focus shifts to the broader perspective of the lending industry. Pental asserts that the recent years have seen a positive transformation in the banking sector, with a focus on cleaning up and moving towards retail and SME lending. He sees the shift as an opportunity for growth, particularly with more customers entering the organized economy. 

Pental provides an optimistic outlook, stating that the Indian economy is thriving with abundant opportunities for banks and NBFCs. He anticipates some temporary disruptions but believes that the long-term impact on growth will be positive.  

(Host: Hamsini Karthik, Producer: Anjana PV) 

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this episode of the ‘State of the Economy’ podcast, on Real Estate, Ravi Aggarwal, Managing Director of Signature Global India Ltd, shares insights on the thriving real estate market. The festive season has proven to be a catalyst for home buying, with developers offering incentives, discounts, and attractive financing options. A report by Colliers predicts a significant increase in housing sales for 2023 compared to 2020, indicating a robust market. Mr. Aggarwal, highlights the positive sentiment in the industry, emphasizing the demand for aspirational homes with integrated living and amenities. As the economy booms, infrastructure developments and improved connectivity in the NCR region contribute to the positive outlook, though concerns about affordability persist. Overall, the real estate market is poised for growth, driven by strong demand and favorable market conditions.

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(Host: Abhishek Law, Producer: Darshan Sanghvi)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.