The big Delta outbreaks in Victoria and NSW are on different trajectories, but this week there was a strange crossover moment.

On Tuesday, NSW recorded 863 new COVID cases, while in Victoria the daily tally that day was higher, at 867.

In NSW the signs are that the Delta outbreak is finally improving, while in Victoria the case curve remains exponential.

So is this what the modelling predicted?

And will things get worse or better from here?

Today on The Signal, we're looking at what the various models being used by governments predicted would happen, and asking whether we can trust them to forecast the months ahead.

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Professor Greg Dore, Kirby Institute, University of NSW and Infectious diseases physician, St Vincent's Hospital, Sydney

Professor Margaret Hellard, Deputy Director, Burnet Institute, Melbourne