Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast

The Cannon Stats podcast is back talking about the fixtures for Arsenal.

The view of the overall schedule, what is the take on how things look?

It’s a tough start, is that good? bad? just a thing?

Then there is talk about the state of the transfers and a bit about what is going on among the other teams in the league.

The second half feature your questions and they are some good ones.

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Adam and Scott get together to give out grades.

Before jumping to the grades, they go through the latest transfer stories talking about the moves that have been made and the latest rumors for Arsenal.

In the second half of the show it is about the grades from the start of the season and an outlook for next year.

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Arsenal can’t get any deals over the line so we have stepped in and drafted Adam to run Arsenal’s business and he wasted no time getting Arsenal all set for the 2025-26 season.

Before jumping straight into the moves, Adam and Scott chat about some of the latest rumors for Rodrygo and Kepa.

At around the 10 minute mark Adam starts with his sales and he is a bit surprising with these and the total volume of moves.

Next Adam goes through and makes the contract extensions that needs to be done.

Finally, about 25 minutes we get to what everyone wants with the incoming deals.

Overall, Adam spent 175 million net and put together a very strong team. Let us know what you think of the team after it is all done.

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On this addition of the Cannon Stats Podcast Adam and Scott get together to chat about Arsenal’s squad and the plan for the summer. They play a fun game where they have to keep the player, be open to listen for offers, or kick them out of the club selling for any price. It is a nice way to go over the player’s season contributions and do a bit of squad planning ahead of the Summer window opening up.

The second half of the podcast is about the latest transfer news with a discussion on Martin Zubimendi and Benjamin Sesko. It is great to chat about both players and how the fit within the Arsenal team.

Rough Running order

0 - 2: Into

2 - 11: A bit of Meta discussion on transfers

12 - 50: Keep, Listen, or Sell

51 - 61: Zubimendi Discussion

62 - End: Sesko Discussion

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Adam and Scott get together to have a bit of a therapy session, reliving Arsenal’s match against Paris St. Germain.

We go through the opening 15 minutes, where Arsenal’s tweaks and pressure nearly got them an early that could have changed the game. We got through the big moments and our reactions to the action.

Then we get a bit meta talking about how this is a game, more than most, where the results are driving the view and where we think that anlayis leaves you missing important context around the way the teams played here.

Finally, there is some discussion about was Arsenal the best team in this competition like Arteta said and could it have been different with a new striker in Janurary.

Hopefully this will help you move forward with whatever your feeling are after this match.

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Join us on Cannon Stats Podcast as we dissect Arsenal’s 0-1 loss to PSG in the Champions League semi-final first leg, discuss tactical tweaks for the return leg, analyze their semi-final scoring drought, and preview the Bournemouth clash with a Premier League top five update.

Timeline Breakdown:

* 0:00–5:00 | Intro: Welcome, episode overview, and Arsenal’s PSG defeat context.

* 5:00–25:00 | Arsenal vs. PSG Analysis: PSG dominated the first 20 minutes (75% possession, Dembele’s 4th-minute goal). Arsenal rallied in the middle 40 (xG 1.5 vs. PSG’s 0.1, Merino’s disallowed header), but faded late, with PSG missing chances (Barcola, Ramos).

* 25:00–35:00 | Tactical Tweaks for Paris: Partey’s return to free Rice/Merino/MLS, exploiting PSG’s home losses (e.g., Nice, Villa), and managing Dembele’s potential injury.

* 35:00–45:00 | Semi-Final Scoring Drought: Arsenal’s fictional six-match goalless streak in semi-finals signals a mental block, critical for Paris.

* 45:00–105:00 | Bournemouth Preview & Top Five: Arsenal (2nd, 67 pts) face Bournemouth (10th, 50 pts) to secure second over Newcastle (62), Man City (61), Chelsea (60). Plus some discussion on the Europa and Conference Leagues.

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Adam and Scott get back together to chat about Arsenal’s 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace.

It was a disappointing and pretty low-quality display but does it matter? The big topics from the match:

* Kiwior shining after a run of games

* Trossard looking sharp as the false nine

* Any worries about the defense or just a one off

The next topic is about Arsenal’s chances for staying in the top 5 and in the top 2. We give our thoughts on the outlook, while looking at the rivals end of season fixtures and what points total Arsenal needs to feel safe.

To finish in the top 5, the magic number is probably 68 points and almost certainly 70 points for Arsenal. To finish 2nd, they probably need 73-75 but could scrape it at a lower number.

Adam wrote up a post today on what this could mean.

The last topic is a look ahead to PSG. The different position battles, thoughts on how the game will go, and a prayer that this doesn’t go to penalties because neither of our hearts could take it.

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In this special episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Scott is joined by Jake Entwistle to dive talk about the youths.

This episode explores Arsenal’s thriving Hale End and the striker options to suplant the perhaps unrealistic target of Alexander Isak.

The first half unpacks Hale End’s golden generation, spotlighting Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly.

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Adam and Scott are back to give an analytical deep dive into Arsenal’s Champions League heroics and beyond! Fresh off a stunning 3-0 win over Real Madrid in the quarter-final first leg, we unpack the tactics, standout performances, and what lies ahead fro Arsenal.

It is a full show with things starting with with Arsenal’s Emirates masterclass, with a tactical breakdown, second-leg strategy, rankings of all the potential other teams in the CL, and a short weekend preview vs. Brentford.

Arsenal dominated with 12 shots, 64% field tilt, and 2 big chances. Declan Rice’s two free-kick golazos and Mikel Merino’s clinical finish sealed the rout. We analyze Arteta’s high press, Jakub Kiwior and William Saliba’s defensive solidity, and the brillance of Myles Lewis-Skelly. Was this Arsenal’s best under Arteta? The best in the Emirates era?

At the Bernabéu, should Arsenal press or protect their lead? We explore countering Mbappe and Vinícius Jr., set-piece defense, and lineup choices. Arteta’s “half-time” mantra aims to keep focus amid 80,000 fans and a trip to a place none of these players have been to with Arsenal.

We then spend the second half going through each of the other teams in the Champions League doing a quick power rank and talking through their first leg matches.

Like, subscribe and do all that great stuff. Thanks for Listening!

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Adam and Scott get together to chat about the latest news in the Arsenal world. That of course, means we get to chat about the injury to Gabriel Magalhães.

* How does the club cope with him out?

* Is it Kiwor next man up or something more exotic?

* How much blame does the club have for this and the other hamstring injuries?

Hamstring Injuries in context:

Arsenal are a bit above average (3.8 and 3.5 median) this season with there 5 total injuries. 3 of Arsenal’s have been to the level that they decided to go to surgery but it is one of those where we can’t really say with confidence that these were grade 2 or 3 injuries here.

Then, there is the other big news with fresh links to Viktor Gyökeres. This has been a more divisive link than many I remember in recent times and that means it makes for excellent fodder for conversation.

He has been a topic of our writing previously, which is linked here:

The big topics here are about the relative quality of the Portuguese League and how that translates for a player like Gyökeres, because there is no doubt that what he has done there is mighty impressive.

The major part here is that the difference between the top teams in Portugal and England is noticeable but it really drops off after you get past the top 4 teams. Elo ratings aren’t perfect here (they are also backed up by the Opta team ratings) but it is one of those things where the level is much closer to the Championship than the Premier League.

This is backed up by the wages that these teams have as well. Sporting laps the League with what they can pay and then it drops quickly. These are sums that are less than most teams in the Championship.

Viktor Gyökeres goals against the top Portuguese teams (in the league):

Benfica - 270 minutes, 1 goal

Porto - 247 minutes, 4 goals (1 penalty)

Braga - 263 minutes, 1 goal

0.58 Non-penalty goals over 8.7 90s played.

This dosen’t mean that players can’t translate from Portugal to the Premier League; I think it just means that it is important to have more skepticism about what the numbers mean and to have larger error bars with an expectation is adjusted down.

Here is how the adjusted numbers look compared to Havertz:

Thank you for listening!

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