Carolina Weather Group

This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

“The hardworking forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA’s new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we’ll be rolling out in the coming years.”

NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present.

“Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.”

Temperature

Precipitation

Drought

This week on the Carolina Weather Group, climatologist Judah Cohen explains what to expect from the 2022 – 2023 winter, and what factors will influence the chance of snow and winter weather.

Cohen, a Visiting Scientist at MIT’s Parsons Lab, and Director of the Seasonal Forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, explains how the polar vortex, Siberian snow, and artistic ice influence weather in the Southeast United States.

This episode was available early to Carolina Weather Group supporters on Patreon. Sign up to support the show and for just $1 receive exclusive insights and episode extras.

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The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.

Fundraisers have been announced to help the families of WBTV meteorologist Jason Myers and helicopter pilot Chip Tayag. The two men died Tuesday in a helicopter crash while on assignment for the Charlotte television station.

Jason Myers is survived by his wife of twenty years, Jillian, and their four children, Andrew, Lily, Luke and Lydia. You can support their family at https://www.gofundme.com/f/in-memory-of-jason-myers-husband-father-of-4.

Chip Tayag is survived by his wife, step-children, parents, siblings, nieces, nephews, great-nieces, and great-nephews. You can support their family at https://www.gofundme.com/f/in-loving-memory-of-chip-tayag.

WBTV shared these links Wednesday. Knowing that these are safe and secure ways to help the families, the Carolina Weather Group wished to share them with you as well.

The Carolina Weather Group’s James Brierton and Scotty Powell deliver a special message this Thanksgiving week, and Scotty shares his memories of Jason, who mentored him toward his new dream job in television weather.

NASA’s Artemis I mission lifted off on Nov. 16, 2022, from Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39B. This video includes highlights from the event.

With 8.8 million pounds of thrust, the Space Launch System (SLS), is NASA’s most powerful rocket. It will send the uncrewed Orion spacecraft beyond the Moon, 280,000 miles from Earth, farther than any human-rated spacecraft has ever flown.

After 26 days and a total distance of over a million miles, Orion will return home faster and hotter than any spacecraft has before. 

The primary goals for Artemis I are to demonstrate Orion’s systems in a spaceflight environment and ensure a safe re-entry, descent, splashdown, and recovery prior to the first flight with crew on Artemis II.

The first in a series of increasingly complex missions, Artemis I will demonstrate our commitment and capability to build a long-term human presence at the Moon for decades to come.

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The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.

Artemis I managers convened Monday afternoon to review the status of countdown operations as well as two open technical items, and gave a “go” to proceed toward launch Wednesday, Nov 16. The two-hour window for launch opens at 1:04 a.m. EST.

Engineers examined detailed analysis of caulk on a seam between an ogive on Orion’s launch abort system and the crew module adapter and potential risks if it were to detach during launch. The mission management team determined there is a low likelihood that if additional material tears off it would pose a critical risk to the flight.

Technicians also completed replacing a component of an electrical connector on the hydrogen tail service mast umbilical. While swapping the component did not fully fix the issue, engineers have redundant sources of information supplied through the connector.

The countdown, which began Monday at 1:54 a.m., is progressing smoothly. All elements of the rocket and spacecraft are powered up. Overnight, teams will charge flight batteries, conduct final walkdowns at the launch pad, and check out communications with Orion.

The following milestones remaining in the countdown are below. Live coverage of tanking operations with commentary on NASA TV will begin on Tuesday, Nov. 15 at 3:30 p.m. Full launch coverage in English will begin at 10:30 p.m. Click here for the latest information on launch briefings and events.

NASA leader Jim Free is providing an update on the #Artemis I mission to the Moon following the Hurricane Nicole weather event. NASA hopes to launch starting in a two-hour windows Wednesday, Nov. 16 at 1:04 a.m ET.

There are at least two post-Hurricane #Nicole repairs that still need to be monitored and completed before Wednesday's early morning launch attempt.

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The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.

What will remain of Hurricane Nicole is forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to North Carolina and South Carolina late Thursday, Friday, and into the first part of Saturday. The biggest impact from the storm will be scattered tornadoes and flooding, which will be brought on by both heavy rains and high tides. 

Along the coast, the storm surge could cause flooding along Carolina shortlines. Heavy rains are expected across the Carolinas, but especially at the coast and in the higher elevations of the western North Carolina foothills and mountains.

Regardless of the storm's name and classification, the impacts for the Carolinas will remain likely the same despite the storm's weakening from a hurricane to a tropical storm or tropical depression.

Across the Carolinas, the Carolina Weather Group provides forecast analysis and explanation to help you better understand what to expect from the storm.

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VISIT OUR WEBSITE: https://carolinaweathergroup.com

The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.

Tropical storm-forecast conditions are possible across portions of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday from Nicole.

Forecast to become a hurricane before landfall along the east coast of Florida Thursday, Nicole will then swing into the Southeast.

While the exact forecast track of Nicole remains uncertain, the storm is expected to bring heavy rains, gusty winds, and coastal impacts, including the possibility of storm surge, rough surf, and erosion to North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

NASA is also closely monitoring forecast weather conditions at Cape Canaveral, where the Space Launch System and Orion capsule for the Artemis-1 mission are sitting on Launch Pad 39B. As of Monday, NASA continues to keep the vehicle at the launch pad but, as they did for Ian, could elect to move the vehicle back to the safety of the Vehicular Assembly Building. The time-consuming move could jeopardize the planned launch attempts next week for this mission back to the moon.

The Carolina Weather Group will have updates throughout the week here on the channel and on our audio podcast feed.

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NASA and Northrup Gruman are set to launch a resupply mission to the International Space Station from the NASA Launch Facility in Wallops, Virginia at 5:50 a.m. EST. Weather is 80% favorable for launch in Virginia.

The launch will be visible across much of the Carolinas and east coast weather permitting. We can expect scattered showers and clouds across the Carolinas at the time of launch.

Don't forget to set your clocks back and join us for live coverage beginning at 5:30 a.m. EST (after the time change) on the Carolina Weather Group YouTube channel.

https://youtu.be/nCP7c2CyJzk

#nasa #artemis #space 

Briefing participants include:

Jim Free, associate administrator, Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate, NASA Headquarters

Cliff Lanham, senior vehicle operations manager, Exploration Ground Systems Program, Kennedy

Teams are on track to roll the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) to Launch Pad 39B no earlier than Friday, Nov. 4 with first motion targeted for 12:01 a.m. EDT.

Minor repairs identified through detailed inspections are mostly completed. Preparations are underway to ready the mobile launcher and VAB for rollout by configuring the mobile launcher arms and umbilicals and continuing to retract the access platforms surrounding SLS and Orion as work is completed.

Testing of the reaction control system on the twin solid rocket booters, as well as the installation of the flight batteries, is complete and those components are ready for flight. Engineers also have replaced the batteries on the interim cryogenic propulsion stage (ICPS), which was powered up for a series of tests to ensure the stage is functioning properly. Teams successfully completed final confidence checks for the ICPS, launch vehicle stage adapter and the core stage forward skirt.

Teams are continuing to work in the intertank area of the core stage and upper section of the boosters to replace batteries. These areas will remain open to support remaining battery and flight termination system activities. Flight termination system testing will start next week on the intertank and booster and once complete, those elements will be ready for launch. Charging of the secondary payloads in the Orion stage adapter is complete.

Teams recharged, replaced and reinstalled several of the radiation instruments and the crew seat accelerometer inside Orion ahead of the crew module closure for roll. Technicians will refresh the specimens for the space biology payload at the launch pad. The crew module and launch abort system hatches are closed for the roll to the pad, and engineers will perform final closeouts at the pad prior to launch.

NASA is targeting the next launch attempt of the Artemis I mission for Monday, Nov. 14 with liftoff of the Space Launch System "SLS" rocket carrying the Orion spacecraft planned during a 69-minute launch window that opens at 12:07 a.m. EST. Artemis I is an uncrewed flight test to launch SLS and send Orion around the Moon and back to Earth to thoroughly test its system before flights with astronauts.

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SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST: https://anchor.fm/carolinaweather

SUPPORT US ON PATREON: https://patreon.com/carolinaweathergroup

VISIT OUR WEBSITE: https://carolinaweathergroup.com

The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.