CEPS in focus

South Korea began 2025 in deep political turmoil following the martial law crisis. Despite its gravity, the episode affirmed the country’s democratic resilience. In the early hours of 4 December 2024, the South Korean National Assembly had voted to lift the martial law that President Yoon Suk-yeol had announced the night before. In April 2025, the Constitutional Court formally removed Yoon from office, triggering snap elections.

For the past six months, South Korea has been deeply divided and lacking in strong leadership. On 3 June, the leadership vacuum was filled by the landslide victory of Lee Jae-myung, who took office the next day and pledged to ‘unite the people’.

At first glance, this result could mean continuity for EU-Korea relations. South Korea is expected to remain a key partner in promoting a rules-based international order, from global trade to the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The two strategic partners also have an impressive line-up of bilateral commitments.

But before framing EU-Korea relations in routine terms, it’s worth taking a closer look at today’s South Korea, its new priorities and their practical implications for Brussels and Seoul.

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In recent weeks, headlines have taken a sharp turn, with Anthropic’s CEO warning that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. Business media echo the same worry: is AI replacing – or going to replace – new graduates?

These statements tap into a growing sense that generative AI isn’t just augmenting work – it’s destroying it. This comes amid mass layoffs in tech and consulting. In 2024 alone, more than 95 000 US tech workers lost their jobs. Dismissals at McKinsey, Microsoft, Duolingo and Salesforce are framed as the result of AI efficiency gains.

The narrative is clear: AI is coming for entry-level jobs – and there’s nothing we can do about it. But this deterministic view ignores a simple truth: machines don’t make history. People do.

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The EU is strongly committed to integrating the Western Balkans into its energy and climate frameworks as part of the enlargement process. It also provides financial support for the region’s transition to sustainable energy systems. The Instrument for Pre-Accession III, the Reform and Growth Facility and the EU Energy Support Package together provide more than EUR 20 billion in grants and loans for all sectors.

In the energy sector, new funding under the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans is supposed to speed up action on the commitments made under the Energy Community Treaty, which links the EU neighbourhood to the EU energy market. This should boost the region’s ongoing EU accession negotiations.

However, meeting these commitments is about more than just the Western Balkans complying with the Energy Community Treaty. It’s equally a precondition for reforming the electricity sector and, consequently, unlocking new private investment for a sector that’s currently in distress. The electricity and heat sector alone will require investment of some EUR 31-36 billon, according to the Energy Community Secretariat.

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The recent history of the EU’s relations in its ‘southern neighbourhood’ can hardly be called its finest hour. It has been preoccupied with defensive policies, notably the focus on controlling illegal migration, spurred by the far right’s growing support. Then there’s the rise of other world powers in the MENA region such as China, Russia and Turkey, which are often less demanding on fundamental values and economic reform.

This has holed the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in the South below the water line (the ENP in the East is effectively obsolete) and if not yet irretrievably sunk, it’s listing badly and in need of more than a salvage operation. The US’ disengagement from the region (other than Israel) hasn’t helped either.

Above all, the failure to effectively call out Israel’s disproportionate military campaign and disregard of international law in Gaza, as well as its aggression in Lebanon and Syria, has plagued the EU with accusations of double standards vis-à-vis its positioning on Ukraine. This has badly damaged the EU’s reputation as a global force for peace.

That said, the EU still matters in the region. For most MENA countries, it’s still the largest trader, investor and source of aid, as well as a growing security provider. People-to-people links are also second to none, whether through the EU’s large immigrant communities, the millions who have studied in Europe, or through the still substantial support the EU provides to MENA civil society.

Notwithstanding Israel/Palestine, the EU is also seen as a relatively reliable partner that respects its agreements. Today, as countries like Jordan and Morocco could be subjected to unjustified US tariffs at any moment (despite having FTAs with Washington), reliability is more than ever a prized commodity.

And the region also matters to the EU. Some 250 million relatively young and increasingly well-educated citizens live just a few hundred kilometres across the mare nostrum in countries with major energy resources, whether they be sun, wind, green hydrogen or gas. It’s also an important market for EU exports and a potentially competitive source of products and labour for a rapidly ageing Europe – provided that the right balance can be found in the EuroMed partnership.

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Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ has delivered the highest tariff hike in nearly a century. If they’re implemented, the average US tariff rate will rise to 22.5%, around 11 percentage points higher compared to March. Trump has given the world just one week to absorb the news and potentially begin negotiations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to promise a proportionate response while maintaining an openness to dialogue. But the reality is that any retaliation would be far from ideal. It would be driven by the political pressure to show that such aggression won’t be tolerated and not by cold-hard strategy (as it should be).

There are at least three reasons why it would be wise for the EU not to react – at least for now – especially if reacting involves duties or taxes targeting US goods or services.

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Suppose vast quantities of Europeans’ digital data were being sent every few days to a foreign power that has threatened military action against an EU Member State. How should the EU react?

Oh, and that foreign power isn’t Russia or China – it’s the United States.

We’re not talking about the data provided to online service providers such as Google and Facebook – rather the disk backups that are running on everyone’s personal computer, typically every few days. This potentially enormous security exposure is just sitting in plain sight but hasn’t yet visibly bubbled up into the consciousness of European policymakers.

That needs to change – the EU needs to conduct a detailed threat assessment reflecting the new realities, identifying who needs to make changes… and how.

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In the wake of the Draghi report and the EU Competitiveness Compass, ‘competitiveness’ is again dominating debates about the present and future of EU economies and societies, despite being long criticised as an elusive concept or a dangerous (and wrong) obsession.

This is hardly new. The search for competitiveness has shaped EU integration and policy discussions for at least three decades. It was already at the heart of the 1993 White Paper on ‘Growth, Competitiveness and Employment’ and the 2000 Lisbon Strategy. A decade later, the drive for competitiveness underpinned how the eurozone debt crisis was managed, legitimising austerity, wage restraint and the rise of precarious work in many countries.

This time, we’re being assured that competitiveness will bring about ‘good jobs’ and won’t come at the expense of wages and workers’ wellbeing. But will this really be the case? If recent developments are any guide, we have some very good reasons to be skeptical.

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We’re undergoing a global transformation marked by competition for resources, value chain shifts, geopolitical tensions, humanitarian crises, climate change and demographic challenges. This shifting landscape is forcing EU leaders and businesses to rethink their strategies.

The Letta and Draghi reports in particular urged the EU and its Member States to act – rethink governance, remove barriers to innovation, address productivity gaps, simplify legislation and ease compliance burdens.

But if the EU wants to face to these new challenges and emerge stronger, its financial sector needs to be resilient and competitive – and the retail payments system is a crucial part of the financial sector. It underpins economic activity, facilitates cross-border transactions and supports financial stability. In short, it’s one of the foundations of Europe’s digital and economic sovereignty.

Recently, the payments sector has experienced significant transformation driven by digitalisation, rapid technological changes and evolving consumer expectations. That’s why it’s essential to take a forward-looking approach and fully take advantage of the ‘payments revolution’.

The good news is that Europe’s payments landscape is dynamic well-functioning, and increasingly innovative and competitive. Yet it has started to lose ground in terms of reach and scalability, as some key players only operate within their national borders rather than EU-wide. This means that Europe could remain fragmented in a world where scale, speed and technological leadership define success.

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The democratic rule of law is badly deteriorating in many parts of the world and those responsible are hiding in plain sight. In fact, they’re not hiding at all, but they do pretend that their conduct supposedly benefits the public good instead of seriously harming it.

A play on ‘oligarchy’, ‘broligarchy’ is being increasingly used to describe the influence and power of US tech billionaires not only on certain policies and legislation, but on the entire system of checks and balances that underpins the rule of law. While it’s true that a small group of billionaires and the political right have developed a symbiotic relationship across the US and also in Europe, there’s more to this story than merely condemning a few select incredibly wealthy individuals.

In Europe – like everywhere else – corporate influence on policymaking has long been an issue, as lobbyists working for big companies tend to have ‘privileged access’ to decision-makers and, thanks to the millions they spend, have a more extensive impact on political outcomes. This creates a ‘two-tier’ version of democracy, where immense wealth can easily be translated into political power, reinforcing and exploiting existing inequalities across society.

Meanwhile, another International Women’s Day has come and gone, with many political leaders emphasising equal rights and social justice. Their words, however, are hollow so long as moderates continue flirting with the ever-stronger extreme right and most political groups continue to accommodate corporate interests that might be diametrically opposed to justice and equality.

To deliver on the grand ideals of justice, democracy and even equality – as promised in the EU Treaties, in the Charter, in national constitutions and countless political manifestos – the EU must meet the challengers to its core values head on. Instead of falling in line with the backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), it must double-down on its supposed commitment to these principles.

For the third year in a row, CEPS is marking International Women’s Day on 8 March with a special short series of Expert Commentaries to highlight the insights and expertise of some of our most talented female researchers.

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Five years on, Covid-19 taught us the hard way, that health crises can turn our lives upside down overnight – forcing lockdowns, halting even the world’s strongest economies but, most importantly, killing millions. The pandemic exposed the weaknesses of the most advanced healthcare systems – including the EU’s – and demonstrated that unilateral actions are a losing strategy when it comes to tackling cross-border health threats. It became clear that preparedness and prompt, coordinated responses are the crucial ingredients in a successful approach.

This is even truer since Covid-19 is unlikely to be an isolated event. Future pandemics are inevitable due to climate change, deforestation and the loss of biodiversity. With governments around the world scaling back their commitment to both environmental policies and health preparedness, we’re already starting off on the wrong foot in terms of prevention – when actually this could be a great opportunity for the EU to take the initiative and show some global leadership.

For the third year in a row, CEPS is marking International Women’s Day on 8 March with a special short series of Expert Commentaries to highlight the insights and expertise of some of our most talented female researchers.

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