CFB Talks Digital Assets

In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded November 5, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, NinjaTrader Senior Macro Strategist Craig Shapiro, Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo and Mike Treidl, CIO of Blue Coin Capital, two days after Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate.

The panel works through a fast-moving week. A post-election relief rally reversed into a broad chip sell-off, the VIX jumped more than 50% in a single session, and voters backed roughly 40 local measures restricting data center development. The discussion covers what a Democratic Congress means for AI capex, the Fed’s December decision, Bitcoin’s renewed correlation to the Nasdaq and the prospects for the Clarity Act, before a deep dive into how Blue Coin Capital applies fundamental valuation to Venice AI’s dual-token model.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro & Welcome

02:13 Election Night Through the Prediction Markets

05:04 A Blue Wave Rout: First Move vs Second Move

07:31 VIX Jumps 50%: Was Wednesday’s Rally a Bull Trap?

08:27 Under the Hood: Semis Sold, Hyperscalers Bid

11:20 The Median Voter Turns on AI: Data Center Ballot Measures

16:39 Two Years of Pro-AI Policy Start to Unwind

20:45 Texas, Grid Connections & Bipartisan Data Center Pushback

23:34 Payrolls, CPI & the December Hike Debate

26:01 The S&P, the 10-Year & Whether the Election Bought the Fed Time

31:25 Is the Clarity Act Dead Under a Democratic Congress?

33:46 Crypto’s Two-Year Sprint Before 2028

38:33 AI, Not Crypto, Is the Political Target

40:07 Positioning a Crypto Fund After the Blue Wave

41:43 Venice AI (VVV): Valuing a Token Through Its Burns

44:05 Privacy as a Niche: Venice’s Market Share & $150M Run Rate

51:59 Week Ahead: Payrolls, October CPI, Iran & Fund Flows

In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 29, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and returning guest Craig Shapiro, Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader. Alex Butler, who leads go to market for the on-chain offering at CF Benchmarks, also joins to cover the launch of the CFB Oracle.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 with two dissents in favor of a hike. September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% while third quarter GDP grew 3.4%. The panel debates whether a December hike is already locked in, how to read Kevin Warsh’s press conference, and how base effects from the oil spike could shape the path from here. The team also examines Alphabet’s negative free cash flow as a test for AI capex, explains how the CFB Oracle delivers UK BMR regulated indices on chain, and sets out how CF Benchmarks will treat the Bitcoin eCash (ECX) fork scheduled for October 30.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro & Team Welcome

05:01 Warsh’s Press Conference: Same Old Fed?

09:56 “Run It Hot”: The AI Productivity Bet & Balance Sheet Timeline

13:30 Forward Guidance Under Warsh: Fed Speakers as an Echo Chamber

17:45 December Hike Odds: Lock or Coin Flip?

24:35 Is the Fed Seeing Credit Stress the Market Cannot?

26:35 Rates Market: Convexity, Forced Hedging & the Long End

36:58 Hyperscaler Capex: Alphabet’s Cash Burn vs. Microsoft

40:20 AI Financing: Credit Ratings & the Return on Capital Question

42:30 CFB Oracle: What It Is & Where It Is Live

44:32 “Who Signs the Price?” Why Methodology Matters On Chain

46:07 Oracle Roadmap: More Chains & Live Feeds

48:30 The Bitcoin eCash (ECX) Fork: What Changes for CFB Indices

51:35 Week Ahead: Central Banks, Earnings & the Treasury Refunding

In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 22, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and special guest Ben Gray, Kraken’s Chief Legal Officer, for a discussion spanning macro, markets and regulation.

Bitcoin traded near $82,000 as a tech-led, risk-off rotation hit equities, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and Brent crude above $110. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued, yet leverage and macro headlines kept pressure on price. The panel then turns to the regulatory calendar. The OCC finalized the first federal rule under the GENIUS Act on October 21, and the Senate’s September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50. Ben explains what both mean for stablecoin rewards, trust charters and a market structure framework now being written by agencies rather than Congress.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro & Welcome

02:41 Meet Ben Gray: From Federal Regulator to Kraken CLO

07:35 Bitcoin Near $82K: Tech Rotation & the ETF Flow Divergence

18:30 The OCC Finalizes Its First GENIUS Act Rule

21:17 Stablecoin Rewards: How Regulators Will Judge Yield

26:40 Banks vs. Stablecoins: Lobbying & the ICBA Lawsuit

35:28 Rules Without Congress: What the SEC & CFTC Can Deliver

39:02 Five-Year Exemptions & the SEC to CFTC Handoff

43:17 How Sticky Is Agency Rulemaking?

46:00 The SEC Innovation Exemption: Scope & Early Uptake

48:50 Week Ahead: FOMC, Big Tech Earnings & PCE

54:43 Ben’s Watchlist: Midterms & the CFTC’s Exchange Framework

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 15, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk. Special guest Bivu Das, Kraken’s UK General Manager and head of Payment Services, also joins to discuss the team’s new paper on stablecoin payments infrastructure.

The first half unpacks where banks and fintechs are starting with stablecoins, why balances are the most exposed pool of capital, and what Kraken’s agreed acquisition of a Lithuanian bank signals about crypto and TradFi convergence. The second half turns to macro: a hotter core CPI print, falling long-end yields, and whether the Fed should hold or hike at its October meeting.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro & Team Welcome

02:19 Meet Bivu Das: Kraken UK & Payment Services

03:40 Stablecoins & the Opportunity

05:08 What Banks & Fintechs Want from Stablecoins

08:42 Three Pools of Capital: Which Gets Disrupted First?

17:04 Kraken’s Bank Acquisition

21:42 Stablecoin Yield: GENIUS, the OCC & MiCA

27:08 Central Banks Pilot Stablecoin Rails

29:34 Is Deposit Flight Overblown?

35:41 Fixing Fiat On & Off Ramps

39:32 Macro: Hot Core CPI, Falling Yields

41:11 October FOMC: Hike or Hold?

45:23 Why Long-End Yields Fell Despite Inflation

50:39 Rate Hikes Before Elections: What History Says

56:09 Bitcoin Key Levels

57:33 Week Ahead: Earnings, Auctions & GENIUS Comments

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure.

With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam.

Chapters

00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome

01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3%

02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil

11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus

12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull?

15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth

22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs

23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs

26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook

30:35 – Who Is Buying the Debt?

32:27 – Late-Cycle Rally, Concentration Risk & What Could Break It

36:27 – Q3 Earnings Preview: 29.5% Growth Led by Energy, Tech & Communication Services

39:14 – AI Earnings, Bank Dealmaking & Estimate Revisions

42:20 – Returns on CapEx: Free Cash Flow & Hyperscaler Financing

44:32 – September Attribution: Fundamentals & Fee Revenue Drive Altcoin Gains

45:41 – Sector Dispersion: DeFi Outpaces Equities, Bitcoin Dominance Holds Near 60%

48:23 – Innovation Exemption & the Regulatory Catalyst Pipeline

59:31 – Week Ahead: Bank Earnings, CPI, PPI & ETF Flows

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets.

BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15.

The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights.

Chapters:

00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome

00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler?

07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In

09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market

11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote

19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields?

23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question

28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA

31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration

36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative

37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path

40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns

43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion

46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets

48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging

52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update

55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained."

With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead.

Chapters:

00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space

02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout

07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect

09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal

12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels

14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation

19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand

26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust

32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha

39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible?

42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate

46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply

47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk

51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch

In a CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 3, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, and CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi.

Fed rate hike odds for the September 16 meeting swung from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip inside 24 hours, after Governor Waller signaled support for holding steady and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks got read as more hawkish than intended. The panel works through what the data between now and the decision, NFP tomorrow and CPI on September 11, would need to show to settle the debate, then turns to Bitcoin's push through $80,000 on the broadest market breadth of the year. The back half covers the Middle East-driven oil spike and its interaction with the debasement trade, a sizable new Treasury buyback program, and closes with a first look at two new benchmarks: the CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index, plus the launch of the CF Benchmarks Oracle for on-chain price verification.

Chapters:

00:00 – Disclaimer & Team Welcome

00:49 – September Rate Hike Odds Swing to a Coin Flip

03:09 – Base Case: Hold, With Oil as the Wildcard

05:41 – Warsh's Ambiguity and the FOMC's Historical Hiking Pattern

13:24 – Bitcoin's Push Above $80K

16:02 – Options Positioning Turns Less Lopsided to the Downside

17:23 – Key Levels: Eyeing a Push Toward $90K

18:40 – ETF Flows and MicroStrategy's Return to Buying

24:20 – CME vs. IBIT: Where the Call Buying Is Concentrated

28:06 – Tracking Vol With the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index

29:25 – Middle East Escalation and the Debasement Trade

34:07 – Germany's Fiscal Pivot and European Defense Spending

37:01 – Market Breadth: The Broadest Rally of the Year

39:08 – Getting Altcoin Exposure Beyond Bitcoin and Ether

40:14 – Inside the New CME CF Crypto Market and Emerging Crypto Indices

41:23 – Index Construction: Durability, Product Fit and Filters

46:02 – The CF Benchmarks Oracle Goes On-Chain

48:57 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, Fed Decision & Treasury Auctions

In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 27, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, along with two guests: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital, and Pascal Hügli, Crypto Investment Manager at Maerki Baumann and author of the Less Noise, More Signal Substack.

The debasement trade is back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the long end buyback program on August 19, Bitcoin led the response and gold barely moved. The panel works through what that repricing means for positioning: whether debasement is a trade or a secular regime, what the CME basis, options skew and breadth data say about where we sit in the cycle, why fund flows point to capital rotating out of AI and back into crypto, and what to expect as Jackson Hole convenes on financial innovation and payments.

Chapters:

00:00 – Intro & Panel Welcome

04:29 – Defining the Debasement Trade: Henry VIII, Nero & a $40 Trillion Debt Load

06:13 – Buybacks, the TGA & Bessent's "Whatever It Takes" Signal

10:21 – Bitcoin Leads, Gold Lags: Trade or Secular Regime?

11:11 – Anatomy of an Oversold Market: Apathy, Bad News & a $1 Billion Volume Day

17:25 – Fund Flows: The DRAM ETF as an AI Rotation Proxy

20:21 – IBIT Volume, $2.5 Billion of Flows & Why This Tape Looks Different

22:22 – CME Basis Off Multi-Year Lows: Fast Money Moves First

24:50 – The Coinbase Premium & Waiting on the Broader Market

26:42 – Basis Trade Mechanics: Who Takes the Other Side?

30:40 – Forward Call Skew: Buying Upside Instead of Protection

33:39 – Inside the Market Cycle Engine: Breadth & Momentum

38:30 – Is It Durable? August's Rally Compared to May's

40:15 – Beyond Bitcoin: Hyperliquid Onshoring & the DeFi Revenue Complex

44:24 – Altcoin Catch-Up, CLARITY Act Odds & "Buyback as a Business Model"

48:11 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole Turns to Payments & Financial Innovation

57:00 – Launching the CF Benchmarks GPU Rental Index

1:01:04 – Closing Remarks

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 20, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, with CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung joining as a special guest for a landmark product announcement.

The panel unveils two new benchmarks, the CME CF Crypto Market Index (CMI) and the CME CF Emerging Crypto Index (ECI), set to launch on August 31, before turning to a frenetic twenty-four hours in markets: a US Treasury long end buyback increase that failed to hold yields down for even one session, a sharp Bitcoin breakout past key resistance, and a first look at the July FOMC minutes ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium, where Kevin Warsh takes the podium.

Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome

01:33 – Breaking: CME and CF Benchmarks Announce Two New Crypto Indices

03:15 – Why Build Both a Market Index and an Emerging Leaders Index?

08:47 – Inside CMI's Universe: From 1,000 Tokens to the Top 12

14:57 – Product Market Fit: The Rule That Sets CMI Apart

20:19 – Unveiling ECI: Crypto's Satellite Sleeve

26:29 – ECI by the Numbers: Fees, TVL, Users & the DeFi Leaders Behind Them

28:32 – Why Launch Now? Regulatory Clarity Meets Market Timing

31:27 – Treasury's $4 Billion Buyback Bet Meets the Bessent Put

35:47 – Deficits, Duration & Why Crypto Is Outperforming Big Tech

41:13 – Bitcoin's Breakout: Reflexivity and the Levels to Watch

48:55 – FOMC Minutes Recap: AI Inflation Chatter and a Balance Sheet Task Force

52:35 – Jackson Hole Preview: What Will Warsh Say?

1:01:30 – Week Ahead: PCE, Fund Flows, MSTR & the Treasury Auction Slate