It is no easy task to say with certainty that a particular storm, drought, or other extreme weather event causes human displacement, or that those individual events are due to human-caused climate change. Hurricanes, wildfires, mudslides, monsoons, and other sudden-onset events, as well as slow-onset ones such as drought, extreme heat, and sea-level rise, have happened for millennia. To attribute specific impacts to human-made environmental change requires scientists to parse through years of data and pattern detection. In this episode, we speak with climate scientist Lisa Thalheimer, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, to explain how experts untangle the connections between climate change and migration.

The small island nations that make up the Caribbean are incredibly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many people and businesses are concentrated along the coastline, exposing them to intensifying hurricanes and rising sea levels. Are these hazards prompting greater displacement, either within the region or beyond? And could they reduce tourism, prompting economic shocks to countries dependent on vacationers? This episode discusses these issues and others with Natalie Dietrich Jones, a migration expert at the University of the West Indies.

Does AI have a role to play in mapping and predicting climate migration trends? In this episode of the podcast, we explore the issue with John Aoga, a postdoctoral researcher at UCLouvain in Belgium. He led a study using machine learning algorithms to trace how climate shocks affected migration intentions in several countries in West Africa. We discuss his findings and the broader promise and peril of using these types of technologies to map and predict migration flows.

Under the right circumstances, climate-induced migration can aggravate the drivers of violent conflict. In places such as the Middle East and West Africa’s Sahel region, migration during times of environmental precarity can upset delicate social and demographic balances and place additional pressure on local authorities. Left to fester, the results can be deadly. This episode explores this connection between climate change and human mobility in conversation with journalist Peter Schwartzstein, author of the book The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence.

Floods, drought, extreme temperatures, and other climate events have devastated parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Repercussions of climate change come on top of years of conflict, which have left countless numbers of people unable to adapt to changing conditions. In response, many have fled, either in short-term displacement or permanent migration. Our podcast speaks with researchers Maryam Abbasi and Nasrat Sayed about how climate change is compelling migration in Afghanistan and Pakistan, layering on top of conflict as a driver for displacement.

Natural disasters and other impacts of climate change are already affecting migration, but often in complex ways. This episode, we speak with Julia Neusner, a lawyer and researcher with the International Refugee Assistance Project. She has conducted surveys and interviews with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border about whether, where, and how they have experienced climate impacts, and offers some of their stories here. More than 40 percent of respondents said they experienced climate-related disasters, but few said those factors were the primary reason why they moved—offering further evidence of the fact that the linkages between changing climates and migration are not always clearcut.

Many countries need more workers to fill jobs in clean energy and other sectors that are critical in the fight against a warming planet. Immigrants may be one part of the solution to the challenges posed by climate change. But governments have been slow to ramp up responses to recruit, train, or accredit foreign-born workers necessary for the green transition, with one model estimating a shortage of 7 million green workers globally by 2030. This episode discusses the labor picture and global trends in green sectors with Kate Hooper, a Migration Policy Institute senior policy analyst who focuses on global labor migration.

The international humanitarian protection system that was built in the aftermath of World War II does not offer protection for people displaced by climate change. In this episode, former UN Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees T. Alexander Aleinikoff, who is now Executive Dean of The New School for Social Research, calls the refugee system “broken.” Rather than expanding to accommodate “climate refugees,” he makes the case for starting over with a new paradigm focused on a right not to be displaced. Such a system would be designed to help people stay in their homes through climate adaptations and resilience, he argues, and provide a mechanism for seeking justice. 

The ways in which people talk about climate migration can affect how individuals are treated. While many activists frame climate migrants as blameless victims of circumstance and even refer to them as “climate refugees,” this approach does not always lead to public sympathy. Moreover, highlighting the role of climate in displacement can unintentionally cause a backlash among host communities, who themselves likely are experiencing or expecting to face similar environmental challenges. In this episode, we speak with Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, who is deputy director of MPI's International Program and our in-house expert on public opinion and migration messaging, about the narratives and public attitudes towards climate migrants.

The Arctic region is warming much faster than other parts of the world. Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—have a reputation for being at the forefront of efforts to combat climate change. But does their track record also extend to helping people who have been displaced by environmental impacts, internally and internationally? In this episode, we discuss the impacts and responses in the Nordic region. Our guests are the researchers Miriam Cullen and Matthew Scott, who are among the leaders of the Nordic Network on Climate Related Displacement and Mobility.