Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Nutanix (NTNX) Q4 FY2026 — Shares gapped 8.9% ABOVE the prior close on the reaction session, reached +13.8% intraday, then closed 6.2% under their own session high at $69.84, +6.81% on the day - and one session later they sit at $69.16, +5.77% against the pre-print close.

Nutanix reported GAAP diluted EPS of $5.17 for fiscal 2026 against $0.65 a year ago. Approximately $1,208M of that - $4.14 per diluted share - is the release of the valuation allowance on its US deferred tax assets, an item Nutanix names itself as adjustment seven of its own GAAP reconciliation. Net income of $1,507M sits on pre-tax income of $327M, and cash actually paid in income tax for the year was $30M against $33M last year. Strip only that item and reported EPS is $1.03, real growth of +59.2%. The company's own adjusted figure is $2.04 against $1.62, up +25.9%. Meanwhile FY2027 revenue is guided to $3.18B-$3.23B, or 12.3% at the midpoint, against 12.4% just delivered - and the FY2027 operating margin ranges imply 23.7% for the last nine months, below both the 27% Q1 guide and the 26.2% Q4 just printed. We rate NTNX a HOLD at a fair value of $59.39 against $69.16.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$59.39 vs ~$69.16 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Q4 revenue $757M, +15.9% YoY - a beat vs the $738M estimate; FY2026 revenue $2.85B, +12.4%

- Q4 adjusted EPS $0.60 vs a $0.49 consensus - a beat of 22%

- EPS basis PROVEN: the four filed adjusted quarters $0.41, $0.56, $0.47, $0.60 add to $2.04, the filed annual figure

- GAAP diluted EPS $5.17 vs $0.65 - but $4.14 per share of it is the valuation allowance release

- Net income $1,507M on pre-tax income of $327M - 4.6x more after tax than before it

- Cash paid in income tax $30M vs $33M last year; the booked benefit is 39x the cash

- Ex-release reported EPS $1.03 vs $0.65 a year ago; adjusted EPS $2.04 vs $1.62, +25.9%

- Q4 adjusted operating margin 26.2% vs 18.3%; FY2026 23.7% vs 21.1%

- ARR $2.55B, +15.8% (methodology re-cut in Q1 FY26, priors restated); RPO $3.44B, +27.8%

- FY2027 revenue guide $3.18B-$3.23B = 11.4% to 13.2% growth, 12.3% at the midpoint vs 12.4% delivered

- FY2027 margin: Q1 guided 26%-28%, full year 24%-25% - the last nine months imply 23.7%

- FY2027 FCF guide $850M-$950M = +7.1% at the midpoint, against +12.1% growth this year

- FY2026 free cash flow $841M, +12.1%; stock comp $358M (12.5% of revenue); owner earnings $483M

- Buyback $484M exceeded stock comp by $126M; diluted share count FELL 0.65%

- Equity flipped from a $695M deficit to $703M - 86% of the swing is the deferred tax asset

- Fair value $59.39: DCF $57.96, 26x adjusted EPS $60.15, 30x owner earnings $60.62 - all BELOW the $69.16 close

- Bear $35.17 to bull $86.04 - a 2.45x range; Street median $80.00 is ABOVE the price

What to watch: A quarterly update lifting the FY2027 revenue guide above 14% growth, a FULL YEAR of adjusted operating margin above 26% rather than a quarter of it, or owner earnings (free cash flow less stock compensation, $483M today) clearing $600M, would each break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Q2 FY2026 — Shares gapped 5.8% lower at the open on the print, were marked 9.4% down intraday, then turned and closed +1.47% at $17.94 - and three sessions later they sit at $17.50, -1.02% against the pre-print close.

Kohl's raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance by $0.80 at BOTH ends of the range, restarted its buyback, and reported a 303 bp gross margin expansion. Approximately $150M of tariff refunds landed in the quarter, of which approximately $100M ran through gross margin - that alone is 301 basis points on $3.3B of net sales, or 99% of the entire improvement in the rate. Strip it out and operating income is $161M, the identical figure Kohl's posted as ADJUSTED operating income a year ago, and the gross margin rate is 39.9% against 39.9%. The raised full-year guide implies $0.62 to $1.22 for the second half against $1.18 delivered last year - -22.0% at the midpoint. We rate KSS a HOLD at a fair value of $20.68 against $17.50.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$20.68 vs ~$17.5 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net sales $3.318B, -0.9% YoY; comparable sales -0.9% - a small MISS vs the $3.323B estimate

- Diluted EPS $1.28 vs a $0.583 consensus - a beat of $0.70. No adjusting items, so GAAP = adjusted

- Tariff refunds of ~$150M received; ~$100M flowed through gross margin (company disclosed)

- That $100M is 301 bp on net sales - 99% of the ENTIRE gross margin expansion

- Ex-refund gross margin 39.9% vs 39.9% a year ago - flat within 2 bp

- Operating income $261M reported; $161M ex-refund vs $161M ADJUSTED a year ago - identical

- Refund is worth $0.65 to $0.97 per diluted share after tax - the beat was $0.70

- FY2026 adjusted EPS guide raised to $1.80-$2.40 from $1.00-$1.60: $0.80 at BOTH ends

- Operating margin guide 3.5%-4.0% from 2.8%-3.4% = $100M more operating income vs a $100M refund

- Remove the raise and the midpoint is $1.30 - exactly the OLD midpoint of $1.30

- Implied 2H EPS $0.62-$1.22 vs $1.18 delivered in 2H last year: -22.0% at the midpoint

- Buyback restarted at $100M for 2026 under a $3.0B authorization; dividend costs $57M/yr

- Those two together are $157M - versus a $150M refund cheque

- Net debt $504M from $1,421M; cash $821M from $174M; revolver at zero

- Depreciation $700M/yr vs guided capex $375M - spending is 54% of the charge

- Normalized levered FCF $409M (20.6% yield); on a maintenance basis $84M (4.2%)

- Fair value $20.68: DCF $20.56, 4.5x EV/EBITDA $21.25, 0.55x book $20.22 - all above the $17.50 close

- Bear $13.47 to bull $34.29 - a 2.55x range; Street median $16.50 is BELOW the price

What to watch: Second-half adjusted EPS clearing the $1.18 delivered a year ago, the gross margin rate widening past 39.9% with no refund in it, or capital spending rising toward the $700M depreciation charge with cash flow held, would each break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

HP Inc. (HPQ) Q3 FY2026 — Shares gapped 8.7% lower on the reaction session and were marked 12.4% down intraday, then closed -2.9% at $29.63 - and the next session took all of it back to $30.52, which is exactly where they closed before the release.

HP added $1,836M of revenue to Personal Systems, up 18.5%, and the division earned $4M LESS than a year ago - an incremental margin of -0.22%. HP files the mechanism itself: average selling prices +40.8% and PC unit volume -15.8%, as a memory and storage cost shock was passed through in price. The only division whose profit rose is Printing, which shrank, and group segment profit only rose at all because a $127M tariff refund sits inside cost of revenue.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$30.23 vs ~$30.52 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net revenue $15,677M, +12.5% YoY (+10.9% constant currency) - a record third quarter

- Personal Systems revenue $11,767M vs $9,931M - $1,836M added, +18.5%

- Personal Systems segment profit $537M vs $541M - DOWN $4M on all that revenue

- Incremental margin on the new revenue -0.22%; divisional margin 4.56% from 5.45%

- HP files the split: average selling prices +40.8%, PC unit volume -15.8%

- Price times volume reproduces the filed +18.5% revenue move to within 0.07 points

- Units ran -7.0% in the April quarter and -4.2% across nine months - it is steepening

- Printing revenue -2.2% (-$90M) but its segment profit +$28M, +4.1%, on 18.1% margins

- Printing is 25% of revenue and 58% of group segment profit

- A $127M IEEPA tariff refund is booked as a reduction of cost of net revenue

- Group segment profit +$20M as reported; -$107M without that refund

- Adjusted EPS $0.83, +10.7%; ex the stated $0.11 of refund it is $0.72, -4.0%

- GAAP EPS $0.71 vs $0.80, -11.3%; gross margin 18.8% from 20.5%, 18.0% ex refund

- FY26 adjusted guide raised to $3.19-$3.29 from $2.90-$3.10 - $0.19 of it is refund

- Q4 adjusted guide $0.69-$0.79 against $0.93 last year: -20.4% at the midpoint

- Free cash flow $1,568M in the quarter; FY26 guide raised to $3.0-$3.2 billion

- Valuation $30.23 blended - DCF $31.58, 10.5x EV to cash $28.02, 10.5% yield $30.44

- Bear $20.64, bull $36.24; seven dated targets, median $23 - 24.6% BELOW the price

- The tape requires only -0.22% perpetual growth against long-run inflation nearer 2.4%

What to watch: PC unit volume returning to flat or better, the Personal Systems operating margin recovering above 5.45%, or adjusted EPS clearing $0.75 with no tariff refund in it would each break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Hormel Foods (HRL) Q3 FY2026 — Shares fell 10.2% to $21.28 on the print - the worst session of the whole twelve-month tape - gapping 3.0% lower and then losing another 7.5% through the day, before taking back 1.4% on Friday to close at $21.57.

Hormel cut its reported EPS guidance to $1.06-$1.12 while raising the adjusted range to $1.45-$1.51. The cut put the $1.17 annual dividend above the top of the company own reported-earnings guide. Underneath it, volume fell 7.4% - 77.5 million fewer pounds - while realised price per pound rose 5.45%, and the adjusted operating profit that rose came out of overhead, not product.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$21.73 vs ~$21.57 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net sales $2,961M, -2.4% YoY; organic net sales -1.7% on the company own definition

- Total volume 969M lbs vs 1,047M lbs - 77.5M fewer pounds, -7.4%

- Realised price per pound $3.06 vs $2.90, +5.45% - price carried the entire top line

- Reported operating profit $111M vs $240M; reported operating margin 3.7% from 7.9%

- Reported EPS $0.11 vs $0.33; adjusted EPS $0.37 vs $0.35, +5.7%

- Adjusted operating profit $266M vs $254M - a $12.0M increase

- But gross profit fell $15.8M and adjusted overhead fell $28.4M; the bridge foots

- Advertising investment $34M vs $41M, -17.1%, about a quarter of the overhead cut

- Retail volume -9.1%, net sales -4.3%; Foodservice net sales +1.6%, 12th straight quarter

- International segment swung to a $29M loss on a $48M non-cash impairment

- Reported FY26 EPS guide cut to $1.06-$1.12 from $1.28-$1.37; sales guide cut $200M

- Adjusted FY26 EPS guide raised to $1.45-$1.51 from $1.43-$1.51 - the top did not move

- Dividend $1.17 a year, 5.42% yield - 104% of the TOP of the new reported guide

- On the PREVIOUS guide the same rate was 88% of expected reported EPS

- Nine-month free cash flow $549M covers $481M of dividends - 88%, with $68M to spare

- Nine-month operating cash flow $769M vs $522M, but net earnings fell $135M

- The improvement is a $255M working capital swing, larger than the $246M cash gain

- Valuation $21.73 blended - DCF $22.22, 9.75x cash earnings $20.54, 5.25% yield $22.29

- Bear $16.91, bull $26.78; street median $26 but four of five targets predate the print

- The tape requires only 1.40% perpetual growth against long-run inflation nearer 2%

What to watch: Total volume turning flat or better, gross margin recovering above 16.1%, or reported EPS returning above the $1.17 dividend rate would each break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Salesforce (CRM) Q2 FY2027 — Shares rose 22.6% to $252.05 the next session - the best day of the whole twelve-month tape - opening 11.9% higher on an opening print that was also the session low, then added another 1.6% on Friday to close at $256.00.

Reported earnings per share grew 119% and GAAP operating profit grew nothing: $2,331M against $2,332M a year earlier, on revenue up 10.8%. The difference is $2,613M of gains on strategic investments, $2.7bn of it an unrealised markup on one privately held holding, Anthropic, that Salesforce did not sell.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$260 vs ~$256 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $11,345M, +10.8% YoY; subscription and support $10,820M, +11.7%

- GAAP operating profit $2,331M vs $2,332M a year ago - flat to the dollar

- GAAP operating margin 20.5%, down from 22.8%; gross margin 76.7% from 78.1%

- Reported EPS $4.29 vs $1.96; adjusted EPS $5.90 vs $2.91

- Gains on strategic investments $2,613M vs $6M in the year-ago quarter

- Of that, $2.7bn relates to one holding, Anthropic, named in the 10-Q

- It added $2.43 to reported EPS and $2.53 to adjusted EPS - the company’s own figures

- Ex the mark, reported EPS is $1.86 against $1.96 a year ago - it fell 5.1%

- Only $179M of strategic investments were sold all quarter; nothing else was realised

- $11,169M of the $11,324M portfolio is carried under the measurement alternative

- Six-month EPS rose $3.12; the company attributes $2.92 to the mark, $0.57 to buybacks

- Salesforce raised $31.0bn of debt in March at coupons of 4.24% to 6.70%

- Interest expense $473M vs $67M - a $406M step, about $1.9bn annualised

- $25bn accelerated buyback took 103M shares at an average of $198.34

- Diluted shares 821M vs 962M; book equity $38.4bn from $59.1bn in January

- Organic revenue growth 6.4% vs 10.8% reported; Informatica added $456M

- cRPO $33.5bn, +14% - the same reported rate as last quarter, 13% to 14% in CC

- Guidance: FY27 revenue $46.1-46.4bn, free cash flow growth only 4-5%

- Valuation $260 blended - owner cash DCF $226, reported FCF DCF $325, 25x EPS $245

- The price needs owner cash compounding 6.5% a year against 4.5% guided

What to watch: GAAP operating profit compounding faster than revenue for two prints, organic revenue growth above 9%, or free cash flow beating the 4-5% guide, would each break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell 10.3% to $216.62 the next session, gapping down 6.7% at the open and never trading back - the session high was still 5.2% below Thursday, and it closed within half a per cent of its own low.

Revenue grew 36.5% to a record $2.739bn and the adjusted gross margin FELL, to 58.9% from 59.4%. Marvell guides it lower again next quarter. Twelve days after the quarter closed it issued Google a warrant over 59.0m shares - 6.4% of the company - which its own accounting books as a REDUCTION TO REVENUE.

THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$123 vs ~$217 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $2,739.3M, +36.5% YoY, a record, and $39.0M above the guided midpoint

- Data center $2,171.5M, +45.7%, now 79% of revenue vs 74% a year ago

- Communications and other $567.8M, +10.1% YoY but -3.0% sequentially

- Adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.67; reported EPS $0.33; the gap is $0.61 a share

- Adjusted gross margin 58.9%, DOWN from 59.4%; Q3 guided to 57.5-58.5%

- Adjusted operating margin 36.6% from 34.8%; reported operating margin 16.8%

- Stock compensation $326.2M, +112.4%, or 11.9% of revenue vs 7.7% a year ago

- That $326.2M exceeds the $308.0M of reported net income by $18.2M

- Buybacks $200.0M covered 61% of it; diluted shares +5.8% to 921.2M

- Google warrant: 59.0M shares at $206.58, issued August 18, 2026, 6.4% of diluted

- It vests in 240 tranches of $500M of custom revenue - $120bn at full vest

- Marvell books a customer warrant as a REDUCTION TO REVENUE as it vests

- Our estimate of its fair value: $7.49bn, or 6.2% of that revenue - OUR ESTIMATE

- One distributor is 44% of revenue, up from 34%; Asia is 84% of revenue

- Balance sheet: $3.93bn cash, $4.96bn debt, $13.87bn goodwill of $27.55bn assets

- Q3 guide: revenue $3.15bn, adjusted EPS $1.10, diluted shares 921M

- Valuation $123 blended - DCF $134, 30x economic EPS $121, EV/EBIT $114

- The price implies 33.8% revenue growth for five years, to $50.7bn

What to watch: Adjusted gross margin back above 59% for two prints while custom revenue accelerates, or stock compensation under 7% of revenue, would break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Synopsys (SNPS) Q3 FY2026 — Shares rose 13.4% to $464.89 the next session, the best day of the year, then handed 41% of it back to close at $442.61.

Design IP - 19% of revenue, and the segment the 10-Q names as the one China export controls hurt - went -6.5%, -5.8%, then +10.8% year on year, with its margin off a 16.3% trough to 26.5%.

THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$373 vs ~$443 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $2.477B, +42.4% YoY; adjusted EPS $3.91 vs $3.39, above the guided ceiling

- Design IP revenue +10.8% to $473.8M after -6.5% and -5.8% in the prior two quarters

- Design IP adjusted operating margin 26.5%, off a 16.3% trough, vs 20.1% a year ago

- Design Automation +52.7% to $2,003.0M, 80.9% of revenue, at a 45.2% adjusted margin

- China revenue $255.5M, +3.3%, vs +48.8% everywhere else; now 10.3% of revenue vs 14.2%

- Nine-month reported net income $627.9M, -29.2%, on revenue +49.2%

- Adjusted net income +37.1% but adjusted EPS +15.3%; diluted shares +18.9%

- Q3 reported EPS $2.84 carries $2.09 of acquisition amortisation and a $2.09 divestiture gain

- Restructuring estimate raised to $425-500M from $300-350M in an 8-K/A the same day

- FY26 guidance: revenue $9.715B, adjusted EPS $15.07, free cash flow ~$2.6B (from ~$2.0B)

- FY26 reported operating margin guided 10.4% against an adjusted 41.5%

- Backlog $10.9B including $1.9B of flexible spending commitments; 49% converts in 12 months

- Balance sheet: $3.61B cash, $10.04B debt, $38.3B goodwill and intangibles of $47.7B assets

- Valuation: owner DCF $373 blended - 40% DCF $311, 35% adjusted P/E $429, 25% EV/FCF $393

What to watch: Design IP holding above 8% growth for two more quarters, with China under 8% of revenue and the total growth rate intact, would break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) Q2 FY2027 — Shares jumped 20.5% to $227.96 the next session - their best day of the year - then eased to $218.40.

Revenue grew 26%, calculated billings 29%, the contracted book 49%. Every test of earnings quality came back clean, and the shares still trade at 37x this year's guided revenue.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$107 vs ~$218 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $1,470.9M, +25.8% YoY; subscription revenue $1,400.3M, +27.0%

- Subscription ARR $5.84B, +25%; net new ARR $332.8M, +51% against a soft base

- Calculated billings $1,590.9M, +29.1% - running ahead of revenue at +25.8%

- Remaining performance obligations $10.7B, +48.6%; deferred revenue $4.84B, +26.3%

- Non-GAAP EPS $0.31 vs GAAP $0.01; stock comp $399.0M is 27.1% of revenue

- Non-GAAP operating income $371.6M - smaller than the $399.0M of stock comp added back

- Free cash flow $377.4M, 25.7% of revenue, a Q2 record; H1 FCF $850.1M at 29.8%

- H1 owner cash after stock comp $175.5M, a 6.1% margin on $2.86B of revenue

- FY27 revenue guide raised $64.4M to $5,991-6,011M, against a $31.9M quarter beat

- Our fair value ~$107 vs the $218.40 close; Street median $240; EV 36.6x revenue

What to watch: two consecutive quarters of revenue growth back above 30% would break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Workday (WDAY) Q2 FY2027 — Shares gapped down, reversed, and closed up 5.8% at $204.72 the next session.

AI drove more than 25% of new ACV. Total subscription backlog grew 8.0%, slower than the 13.9% subscription revenue it feeds.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$191 vs ~$205 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $2,649M, +12.8% YoY; subscription revenue $2,471M, +13.9%

- Total subscription backlog $27.40B, +8.0%; 12-month backlog $9.03B, +14.2%

- Backlog beyond 12 months fell to $18.37B from $18.49B in April

- Non-GAAP operating margin 31.1% vs 29.0%; non-GAAP EPS $2.75 vs $2.61 consensus

- GAAP EPS $2.57 includes $1.52 of one-off IP-transfer tax benefit

- Free cash flow $460M, -21.8% YoY; H1 free cash flow $1.08B, +6.6%

- Non-GAAP EPS +24.4% but non-GAAP net income +13.2%; diluted shares -8.8%

- H1 buyback $2.92B = 2.06x trailing free cash flow; net cash down to $414M

- FY27 subscription guide $9.940-9.950B; the $9.950B ceiling is unchanged since May

- FY27 non-GAAP operating margin guide raised 30.5% to 31.0%

What to watch: total subscription backlog growth back above 10% for two straight quarters would break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Okta (OKTA) Q2 FY2027 — Shares jumped 28.6% to $172.91 the next session, then eased to $166.23.

Reported operating income more than doubled to $107M - but 64% of that gain is stock compensation and purchase amortisation shrinking, and the adjusted operating margin did not move.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$135 vs ~$166 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $805M, +10.6% YoY; subscription revenue $793M, +11.5%

- GAAP operating income $107M vs $41M, but 64% of the $66M gain is non-cash

- Stock compensation fell $144M to $114M; purchase amortisation $17M to $3M

- Non-GAAP operating margin 28.1% vs 27.7%; across H1 it FELL, 26.6% vs 27.3%

- Cash opex ex-stock +9.5% vs revenue +10.6%; cash sales and marketing +14.2%

- Free cash flow $227M, 28.2% of revenue, up from 22.3% a year ago

- cRPO $2.585B, +14% against an +11% guide; total RPO $4.858B, +17%

- FY27 guide raised: revenue $3,216-3,226M, free cash flow $910-930M

- But the guided cash margin is DOWN: 28.6% vs 31.0% delivered in FY2026

- Our fair value ~$135 vs the $166.23 close; Street median $190, low $143

What to watch: adjusted operating margin above 30% for two straight quarters would break our thesis

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.