Charter House Rules

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs with the US 10-year Treasury still above 5.25%, Brent near US$100 and a weak jobs report. So which market is right?

Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) unpack why this looks more like rotation than a broad rally, why the long end of the curve is still under pressure, what oil, gas and European power are signalling, and why AI is fast becoming an electricity story, from the Google–Constellation nuclear deal to FERC, PJM and who pays for the grid.

This week's rule: high yields are a tax, not a verdict.

In this episode:

00:00 Intro

00:18 Welcome, the Red Sox and Canadian Dave's Winnipeg Jets

02:41 This week's agenda

02:50 Macro: record highs with yields above 5.25%

04:18 Broad rally or rotation?

04:59 Weak payrolls and the long end

06:21 Headwind or wrecking ball?

07:26 The macro conclusion

07:46 Energy: Brent, WTI, gas and German power

08:38 Are inventory releases enough?

09:38 What it means for energy transition portfolios

10:40 AI is becoming an electricity story

11:52 The Google–Constellation nuclear deal

13:03 FERC, PJM and who pays for the grid

14:12 Bloom Energy and Vertiv

15:20 Nvidia chip pricing: slowdown or generation shift?

16:41 Our portfolio response

17:33 Framing the energy transition portfolio

18:29 What would make us cut exposure

19:11 The investment committee verdict

19:55 This week's Charter House Rule

Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned.

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

Last week we set four tripwires: the 10-year Treasury above 5.25%, high-yield credit through 300 basis points, dealer gamma turning negative, and Brent back toward US$110. We said one is noise, two is a warning, and three is a regime change. This week, three tripped.

Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) explain why a calm-looking S&P 500 is hiding a shift in regime, what oil and gas markets are really signalling across the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and what it all means for AI infrastructure and energy transition portfolios.

This week's rule: when three tripwires trip, stop forecasting and start managing.

In this episode:

00:00 Cold open: the tripwire scorecard

00:34 Welcome, plus the grand final and the Red Sox

02:44 Why a quiet S&P is a regime change

03:37 Rates: the 10-year through 5.25%

04:52 Credit through 300bp

06:10 Gamma: the market splits

07:30 Earnings vs credit, and Mike Wilson's 7,100

09:12 Oil: SPR release, Saudi pipeline, Iran talks

10:21 The Brent futures curve

11:17 How long does it last? HSBC vs EIA

12:27 Gas: US, UK and Europe

14:11 Australia's gas reservation and Asian LNG

15:08 The energy portfolio takeaway

15:52 AI: OpenAI, Anthropic and the numbers

16:49 AI governance and the Medicare incident

19:20 Who pays for the AI build-out?

20:19 Compute data

21:23 ABB and Australian data-centre policy

22:22 How Emit is positioned in AI

23:09 Energy transition: credit, grids, energy security

24:42 Who benefits

27:04 This week's Charter House Rule

Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned.

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

Welcome to Charter House Rules, the weekly podcast from Emit Capital Asset Management, recorded at Charter House, Bank Place, Melbourne. We look beyond the headlines to understand what is really driving markets and what it means for portfolio risk.

In Episode 1, Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) and Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) unpack a week where oil broke below US$100, AI leaders pushed the Nasdaq 100 to new highs and volatility compressed, while central banks kept tightening.

This week's rule: a falling risk premium is not the same as falling risk.

In this episode:

00:00 Intro, plus the Hawks, prelims and the Red Sox

01:39 Markets on the surface: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Brent below US$100

02:30 Fed, ECB and BoJ hikes: what the market hasn't priced

03:48 Is oil now the most important policy variable?

05:28 Treasury yields and the 5.1% risk threshold on the 10-year

06:59 Oil below US$100: a genuine macro shift, or diplomacy and winter risk?

08:48 Low index volatility, high dispersion: what's under the surface

10:05 Is the AI rally fundamentally justified? Goldman vs Jefferies

12:11 Power, not silicon, is the bottleneck for AI infrastructure

13:48 Morgan Stanley's 7,100 downside case for the S&P 500

15:11 VIX near 14: complacency, and where to sell volatility

16:51 Five portfolio decisions for the current environment

18:00 Global markets: Korea, Taiwan, China/HK and Trump–Xi

19:00 Australia: RBA rate risk, inflation and the AUD

20:31 What would end the optimism

21:03 Charter House, the Mitre Tavern and this week's rule

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views expressed are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Managing Director of Emit Capital Asset Management, Matt Dever, discusses the performance of the Climate Finance Fund for the month of November 2022. 

An overview by Managing Director Matt Dever of the Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund performance for the month of October 2022.