Forecasters put Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at 70 percent or more on the eve of the election in 2016. She was also the favourite to carry key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Donald Trump won on the night. This week The Economist data team launches its 2020 presidential election forecast. How useful are models at a time when politics can seem so out of control?

We speak to Elliott Morris, data journalist for The Economist, and pollster Cornell Belcher.

John Prideaux, The Economist’s US editor, hosts with Charlotte Howard, New York bureau chief, and Washington correspondent Jon Fasman. 

For access to The Economist’s print, digital and audio editions subscribe: economist.com/2020electionpod

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