China in the Americas

To China or the market? Why borrow from a Private lender instead of China? In this episode, Rasheed talks to Federico Sequeda about why international US-based commercial creditors invest in Caribbean bond markets. 

Federico Sequeda is Head of Country Research and Portfolio Manager for the Emerging Markets Team at Eaton Vance. Eaton Vance is a part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. 

Key Points Include:

1. Fundamental Debt Metrics
2. Why governments may prefer private financing over concessionary loans 
3. Do Chinese loans crowd out private creditors 
4. What are the data challenges in investing in emerging markets 
5. Creditor committee views on IMF structural adjustment programs 

Resources Mentioned in this Episode

• The Human Freedom Index (Fraser Economic Freedom Index, as heard in the episode)

I recommend pairing this Episode 28 on the Legal Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Markets

Connect with Federico Sequeda

• LinkedIn

Connect with Rasheed Griffith

• LinkedIn
• Twitter: @rasheedguo

The Republic of Panama officially recognized the People's Republic of China in 2017. Ever since then, there has been a constant parade of op-eds from think tanks about the potential risk of China's advance in Central America. We are joined by Sebastian Naranjo, a PhD candidate at Renmin University in Beijing and an Asia Desk Officer in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Panamá, to seek some truth from facts on this issue. 

• Why did Panamá cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of the PRC?
• How central is the canal to politics in Panamá? 
• What tangible projects has the PRC assisted with in Panamá? 
• How relevant is Chinese culture in the daily lives on Panamanians? 
• Has Panama's relations with the USA soured in any way since 2017? 

We discussed these questions and more! 

Recommendations: 

• Panamá y China: Una relación de tres siglos (Berta Alicia Chen)
• La Ruta de la Seda y Panamá (Eddie Tapiero) 

IMF Structural Adjustment Programs; Private Creditor Committees; Chinese bilateral loan contracts; Activist Hedge Funds; Paris Club vs China Development Bank.

In foreign policy circles there is so much talk about Chinese  bilateral loans in Latin America and the Caribbean (and globally). But there seems to be little understanding of the dynamics sovereign debt markets which have important players like private investors and the International Monetary Fund. To discuss all of this we are joined by Thomas Laryea. 

Thomas formerly served as Assistant General Counsel at the International Monetary Fund, where he was responsible for the IMF’s legal relations in finance and economic surveillance with each of its member countries. Since moving into private practice, Thomas has advised on several recent high-profile sovereign debt restructurings including Argentina, Belize, and Suriname.

U.S Foreign Policy in the Caribbean seldom contemplates Monetary Policy. Domestic currencies in the Caribbean pervert economic freedom. Rather than being seen as economic imperialism, the spread of United States Dollars in the Caribbean should be seen as the spread of economic freedom. I am joined by Dr. DeLisle Worrell, former Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados to discuss why all Caribbean currencies should be permanently retired in favor of adopting the USD as the sole currency throughout the region.  We also discuss the potential of Chinese RMB internationalisation in the Caribbean.

Further reading: The Time Has Come to Permanently Retire All Our Caribbean Currencies by Dr. Worrell

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more information on China in the Americas topics)

Music: Night Nurse by Gregory Isaacs

In this episode I am joined by Ethan Knecht (author of The China-LAC Dispatch) and Mitch Hayes (author of The China Signal) for a roundtable discussion on what we think were the top stories of 2021 as it relates to China-Latin America & the Caribbean relations.

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more information on China in the Americas topics)

Music: Silver Tongue Devil by Masego ft. Shenseea 

Following the 2018 arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou 孟晚舟 on extradition charges to the USA, the political relationship of Canada and China has entered a "Deep Freeze" (as stated by David Mulroney, former Canadian Ambassador to China). In retaliation Chinese authorities arrested two Canadians in China; one of them recently sentenced to 11 years in jail.  Earlier this year Canadian parliament declared that the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjing, China amounts to "genocide". What is the current landscape of Sino-Canadian relations and where can the two countries go from here?

This episode features Prof. Gordon Houlden: Director Emeritus China Institute, a Professor of Political Science, and an Adjunct Professor of the Alberta School of Business at the University of Alberta. Professor Houlden joined the Canadian Foreign Service in 1976, serving in Ottawa and abroad. Twenty-two of his years in the Canadian Foreign Service were spent working on Chinese economic, trade and political affairs for the Government of Canada, including five postings in China. His last assignment before joining the University of Alberta in 2008 was as Director General of the East Asian Bureau of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. 

Show Notes

• China in the Canadian Arctic 
• Meng WanZhou Extradition case 
• Canadian sentenced to 11 years in jail in China
• Chinese Ambassador to Canada interview

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more information on China in the Americas topics)

Outro Music: Northwest Passage by Stan Rogers

How should the embassies of small states be structured to optimize their economic return in relation to China? This episode features Dr. Chelston Brathwaite, Barbados's Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (2014-2017). Prior to that, Dr. Brathwaite served as the Director General of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA). 

Show Notes

• Dr. Brathwaite's recently published memoirs- Memories of China: My Eleventh Defining Moment

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more info on China in the Americas topics)

Outro Music: Hit It by The Mighty Gabby 

Earlier this year China published a white paper on its new approach to International Development Finance. Our guest, Stella Zhang, described this white paper as a "landmark document" in Chinese foreign policy. We discuss the implications of the document along with the nuances of how Chinese firms currently approach international contracting projects and financing. How will these firms operate differently going forward? How will Latin America and Caribbean countries capitalize on China's more explicit signaling of its willingness to assist  with economic growth and development?

Hong (Stella) Zhang is a PhD candidate at George Mason University. Her research interests include China’s role in international development, the internationalization of China’s development state, and the overseas expansion of China’s state-owned enterprises. She had worked for five years as an overseas correspondent with China’s Caixin Media in London and Washington D.C.

Follow Stella on Twitter @StellaHongZhang

Show Notes

• China’s Manifesto for Leadership in Global Development by Stella Hong Zhang
• The Aid-Contracting Nexus: The role of the international contracting industry in China's overseas development engagements by Stella Hong Zhang 
• Roundtable: Will the G7’s B3W Initiative change the game of global infrastructure development?
• 程诚：《“一带一路”中非发展合作新模式：“造血金融”如何改变非洲》

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more info on China in the Americas topics)

Outro Music: La Dueña del Swing by Los Hermanos Rosario

Scott B. MacDonald is a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He is also the chief economist at Smith’s Research & Gradings. Prior to that, he was the head of research at MC Asset Management LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation; chief economist for KWR International and an international economic adviser in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in Washington, D.C.

Show Notes

• The Return of the Cold War in the Caribbean by Scott 
• Is There a ‘New Normal’ for De-risking in the Caribbean? by Scott 

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more info on China-Caribbean topics)

Outro Music: Toast by Koffee

To truly understand Sino-Cuban relations you need to understand the context of Cuba's relations with Venezuela, the US, and the former USSR. Why did USSR become the Patron of Cuba for most of the Cold War? Why did Venezuela step in to support Cuba after the USSR collapse?  Just as the last cold war will Cuba be the nexus of the "New Cold War"? We discussed all of these questions.

Dr. Bradley J. Murg is Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Director of Research, and Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of International Relations and Political Science here at Paragon International University. Dr. Murg also has been recognized as Distinguished Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Cambodia Institute for Cooperation and Peace and Senior Research Advisor at Future Forum.  Dr. Murg’s research languages include English, French, Mandarin Chinese, Russian, and German.

Show Notes

• A Conversation between Che Guevara, Mao Zedong, and Zhou Enlai (1960)
• Venezuela and Cuba: The Ties that Bind
• There Will Not Be a New Cold War by Thomas Christensen
• Sino-Cuban Relations: No "New Cold War" in Havana by Bradley Murg & Rasheed Griffith
• On the Havana Syndrome
•  Willy Wo-Lap Lam Commentary 
• Mao and the Sino-Soviet Split 

Message/Follow me on Twitter: @rasheedguo (for more info on China-Caribbean topics)

Intro/Outro Music: Chan Chan by Buena Vista Social Club