ChinaEconTalk

Two weeks in a row what has gotten into us.

Outtro music: באמפרים” (pronounced Bam-pe-rim, roughly “Bumpers”) by the Israeli hip-hop duo Ness & Stilla, 2024 https://open.spotify.com/track/3FihyZ7YA7vrNiSUfWww10?si=9817a9122faf4b08

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Dylan bonds with Nvidia's CFO and I try to keep the GPUs in actual democracies.

Outtro Music: FaceTime, Karencici, 2018. https://open.spotify.com/track/2PNDZp0ultOJrQL4AVENPO?si=46cdf72cdffb40a3

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What can Mao Zedong teach us about Donald Trump?

To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed the legendary sinologist Orville Schell, who visited China during the Cultural Revolution and is currently at the Asia Society.

We discuss…

Mao Zedong’s psychology and political style,

Similarities and differences between Mao and Trump,

How Mao-era traumas reverberate in modern China, including how the Cultural Revolution has influenced the Xi family,

How Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping survived the Cultural Revolution, and which of their tactics could be useful in modern America,

What civil society can do to defend democracy over the next four years.

Co-hosting is Alexander Boyd, associate editor at China Books Review and former ChinaTalk intern.

Book recommendations:

Outro music:

Bach's Partita No. 1 for Solo Violin in B Minor, BWV 1002: VIII. Double, Gidon Kremer

https://open.spotify.com/track/3x1Rdpgy6QGSlW9tItHYdm?si=20fa2051dc5d4f91

Aria from J.S. Bach Cantata 'Schwingt freudig euch empor'

https://open.spotify.com/track/5pIy4Gll1YywqKX25EbbOb?si=520327db35f54201

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Just how weird will the AI-powered future be?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Nathan Lambert, who writes the Interconnects newsletter and researches AI at the Allen Institute.

We get into…

Nathan’s book recommendation: Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism by Sarah Wynn-Williams

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What does the future of industrial policy in America look like, and what state capacity investments are needed to get there? How does China factor into the future of the U.S. semiconductor industry? And what do government affairs offices at large technology firms actually do? To explore these questions, we’re concluding our CSIS Chip Chat series with Bruce Andrews. Bruce has had a long career on Capitol Hill, led government affairs for Ford, served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce under President Obama, and most recently headed government affairs at Intel. He’s now a fellow at CSIS.

We discuss…

The decline of bipartisanship and how to bring expertise back to Capitol Hill,

The case for a new “Department of Competitiveness” 

Industry’s role in policymaking and what it took to get semiconductor manufacturers on board with the CHIPS Act,

Why Silicon Valley suddenly became interested in politics,

How to optimize industrial policy in a stick-focused political environment.

Outro music: Moon River, Frank Ocean 2018 (YouTube Link)

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Does anybody really understand China? Could America pursue an abundance agenda without the threat of the PRC? Can podcasters change the world?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, who need no introduction, as well as Dan Wang, who has written beautiful annual letters and is back in the US as a research fellow at Kotkin’s Hoover History Lab. He has an excellent book called Breakneck coming out this August, but we’re saving that show for a little later this year.

Today, our conversation covers…

The use of China as a rhetorical device in US domestic discourse,

Oversimplified aspects of Chinese development, and why the bipartisan consensus surrounding Beijing might fail to produce a coherent strategy,

The abundance agenda and technocratic vs prophetic strategies for policy change,

How to conceptualize political actors complexly, including unions, corporations, and environmental groups,

The value of podcasting and strategies for positively impacting the modern media environment.

Outtro Music: Recomposed by Max Richter, I went with a deep cut Autumn 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUEeqvp_BrQ

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What has happened in the past 100 days to America’s science and technology ecosystem? What are China's ambitions and how is the government trying to take advantage of American uncertainty? And what can we learn from China's war mobilization exercises?

To explore these questions, we're joined by Divyansh Kaushik and Alex Rubin, who both work at Beacon Global Strategies. Divyansh holds an AI PhD from Carnegie Mellon, and Alex spent the past decade at the CIA focusing on China and emerging technologies.

We discuss…

The Historical origins of the US R&D model, and the division of labor between universities, government, and industry,

How budget cuts will impact the NSF, NIH, NIST, and DoD basic research,

Why and how China attempts to emulate US research institutions,

What a leaked wargame exercise from Guangdong province can tell us about China’s grand strategy,

How institutions like ChinaTalk can complement the IC with fresh, independent research.

Outro music: The Elements - Tom Lehrer (YouTube Link)

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Can China use military force to achieve its political goals, without triggering nuclear war? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Fiona Cunningham, a professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the new book, Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security.

Co-hosting today is Michael Horowitz, another Penn professor who served in Biden’s Department of Defense.

We discuss…

How to use open source PLA documents to conduct deep research,

The evolution of Chinese defense strategy, including the impact of the third Taiwan Strait crisis,

Nuclear modernization and China’s “no first use” policy,

How the PLA makes decisions, including why they chose to develop cyber capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and hypersonic missiles over proposed alternatives.

Outtro Music: Beauty by Gui Bian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTlfSOCwYJ8

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What is Trump doing to extended deterrence?

I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

We get into…

The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence,

The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates,

Why France proliferated despite US objections,

How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia,

China’s nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world.

Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing

Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link)

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Rush Doshi (CFR, Biden NSC, author of the excellent The Long Game) and I run through the US-China tale of the tape. The future of America's relationship with its allies may be the key hinge variable for whether this century turns out to be China's to define. Do give this one a listen. Especially if you're JD Vance!

See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP

Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love:

Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero

What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY

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