Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy.

Lily's in Osaka, hit her up at [email protected]

Chapters:

00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama

07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style

24:27 National Defense and International Relations

40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability

48:33 Implications of a Minority Government

01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump

Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust

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Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun.

00:00 Venezuela

16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations

34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters

46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy

48:44 Sledge

Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo

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Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover:

How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao.

Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy.

Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s.

Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations.

Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think.

Outtro Music:

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Guests today include Michael Horowitz (Penn now, in the Biden years was DAS for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities + Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office) and Lauren Kahn (worked with Michael in the DoD, now at CSET).

The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf

Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy

00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process

06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Military Engagement

10:38 AI and Nuclear Weapons: A Seductive Analogy

17:47 Nuclear Energy vs. AI: Lessons in Governance

20:02 The Future of AI in Military Operations

31:46 Transforming Military Lessons with AI

37:38 Operational Surprise and Historical Context

45:55 Social Acceptability of Military Technologies

57:59 Ethics and Accuracy in AI Warfare

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Tarun Chhabra is Head of National Security Policy at Anthropic, and previously served as the Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Technology and National Security on Biden’s NSC.

Today, our conversation covers…

Outro music: Stephen Wilson Jr. - Stand By Me (Live at The Print Shop) (YouTube Link)

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Chrisian Brose is the Chief Strategy Officer at Anduril Industries. He’s been at the forefront of the debate about how America needs to change in order to win a future war against a high-tech adversary like China. He’s the former staff director for the Senate Armed Services Committee and the author of the essential book, The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare.

We discuss:

Outro music: Kay Kyser - Praise The Lord And Pass The Ammunition (YouTube Link)

Gracie Fields - Thing-Ummy-Bob (That's Going To Win The War) (YouTube Link)

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Chris Miller (chip wars), Chris McGuire (10 year State Dpt vet, check out the past episode on the feed) and I discuss a big move by MOFCOM to squeeze Trump in advance of their APEC summit.

Outtro Music: Paul Simon, Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAb2Mu0CRk4

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Last week, Jensen Huang said that China is “nanoseconds behind” the US in chipmaking. Is he right? Today, Chris McGuire joins ChinaTalk for a US-China AI hardware net assessment. Chris spent a decade as a civil servant in the State Department, serving as Deputy Senior Director for Technology and National Security on the NSC during the Biden administration and back at State for the initial months of Trump 2.0.

Today, our conversation covers:

Huawei vs Nvidia, and whether China can compete with US AI chip production,

Signs that chip export controls are working,

Why Jensen is full of it when he says China is “nanoseconds behind”

What sets AI chips apart from other industries China has indigenized,

How the US has escalation dominance in a trade war with China, and the significance of BIS’s 50% rule,

Chris’s advice for young professionals, including why they should still consider working in government.

Outtro Music: Abao Uduli https://open.spotify.com/track/176BwQLW0IGc2mhkkMe0yH

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Bryan Clark, a former submariner now with the Hudson Institute, joins the show!

Outtro speech: George C. Scott's rendition of Patton's speech

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At long last, Jeff Alstott, the fairy godfather of DC AI policy, joins the show. He’s the founding director for RAND’s center for technology and security policy, TASP, worked at NSC, NSF and IARPA, and has a PhD in complex networks.

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