This research explores the potential effects of large language models (LLMs), like GPTs, on the U.S. workforce. It uses a new method involving both human experts and GPT-4 to determine how many job tasks could be affected by LLMs, including when paired with additional software. The findings indicate a significant portion of the workforce may see at least some tasks impacted, with higher-wage jobs potentially having greater exposure, suggesting LLMs could be a general-purpose technology with broad economic and societal implications.

We present an assessment of the long-term debt risks for central governments and central banks in major countries, utilizing a dashboard of indicators. It highlights the significant debt burden of the US government but notes its mitigating factor as the dominant world reserve currency, while also discussing the financial situations and risks of countries like Japan and China. The author proposes a "3%, 3-Part Solution" for the US to address its rising debt, advocating for deficit reduction through a combination of spending cuts, tax increases, and crucially, interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. The text emphasizes that successful fiscal tightening often coincides with easier monetary policy and suggests now is a favorable time for the US to implement such adjustments due to current economic conditions.

We present a detailed examination of macroeconomic cycles, focusing on debt, money, and economic forces over the past 80 years, particularly in the US, China, and Japan. It explains how these economic factors are intertwined with political, geopolitical, natural, and technological forces. The author uses historical examples, such as the shift from a gold-linked monetary system (MP1) to a fiat system (MP2) and eventually to quantitative easing (MP3) and coordinated fiscal and monetary policy (MP4), to illustrate the workings of these large cycles. The analysis highlights how rising debt levels and subsequent crises have historically led to monetary policy shifts, wealth redistribution, and changes in the global economic and political landscape. The text stresses the importance of understanding these timeless and universal cycles to anticipate future developments.

An in-depth analysis of how central governments and central banks go broke, focusing on the archetypical sequence of events leading to major debt crises. It examines the differences between hard money and fiat money systems in the context of these crises, highlighting how fiat systems experience more gradual devaluations. The source outlines nine stages of the final crisis phase, starting with excessive debt accumulation, progressing through private sector distress spilling over to the government and then the central bank, and culminating in debt restructuring, devaluation, and the eventual return to a new equilibrium, often involving extraordinary policies like taxes and capital controls. The analysis incorporates historical data and charts to illustrate the typical patterns and red flags of each stage.

This extensive document explores the Big Debt Cycle, a long-term financial phenomenon characterized by periods of credit expansion culminating in unsustainable debt burdens and subsequent deleveraging. The author, a global macro investor, argues this cycle, typically lasting around 80 years, is not widely understood but is critical for investors and policymakers. The text outlines five stages of this cycle, from the initial "sound money" phase to the eventual "deleveraging" where debt is reduced through defaults, restructurings, or money printing. Mathematical formulas are presented to demonstrate how debt burdens compound and how different factors, such as interest rates, income growth, and deficits, influence debt sustainability. Ultimately, the author contends that central banks inevitably choose to print money and devalue the currency to alleviate debt crises, and that this cycle interacts with other major global forces like political and geopolitical dynamics, acts of nature, and technological advancements.

We detail a novel empirical study analyzing AI usage patterns by examining millions of Claude.ai conversations through the lens of U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET database of tasks and occupations. The research found that AI use is concentrated in software development and writing tasks, accounting for nearly half of total usage, but also extends to about 36% of occupations for at least a quarter of their tasks. The study differentiates between augmentative AI use (57%), which enhances human capabilities, and automative use (43%), which substitutes for human labor. Notably, AI usage is highest in mid-to-high wage occupations requiring considerable preparation (Job Zone 4) and cognitive skills, showing lower use in roles requiring physical labor or extensive training. While acknowledging limitations, the framework offers an automated, granular approach for tracking AI's evolving role in the economy and identifying potential future impacts, providing empirical data that both aligns with and challenges previous predictions.

The AI Index Report 2025, presents a multifaceted overview of the global state of artificial intelligence. It highlights advancements in AI models and performance across various domains like language, vision, and robotics, while also discussing the growing importance of responsible AI, including ethical considerations, safety benchmarks, and policy developments worldwide. The report also examines the economic impacts of AI, such as job market trends and investment patterns, alongside the current landscape of AI and computer science education and public perception of the technology. Overall, the document captures key trends, challenges, and progress within the rapidly evolving field of AI.

This RAND Corporation research report examines government strategic investment (GSI) initiatives aimed at developing new capabilities for government missions. It analyzes three specific cases: In-Q-Tel, Rosettex Technology and Ventures Group, and OnPoint Technologies, which are government-chartered or operate under contract, differing from traditional private venture capital by prioritizing mission-oriented innovation over purely financial returns. The report also employs an economic model to understand the incentives GSI initiatives can use to encourage private companies to adapt their innovations for government needs, highlighting the role of "Other Transaction" authority in providing flexibility. The research offers insights into the design and management of future GSI initiatives, considering factors like the balance between equity investment and contractual support based on the likelihood of product sales to government and private sectors.

Part 6 serves as a guide for navigating the unspoken rules of the professional world to enhance one's competence, involvement, and compatibility (CIC) in the workplace. It uses the fictional experience of Peter to illustrate common missteps in meetings and introduces the concept of strategic visibility and audibility. The source further explores how to prepare for meetings by understanding their purpose, one's expected role (being seen and heard, seen but not heard, or neither seen nor heard), anticipating questions, and contributing thoughtful remarks. The text then shifts to interpreting and seeking feedback from managers, detailing various direct and indirect communication styles and offering strategies for requesting and responding to evaluations. Finally, it addresses conflict resolution by outlining steps to diagnose problems, evaluate options, and address issues tactfully, as well as providing advice on leaving a job gracefully and strategically positioning oneself for career advancement by demonstrating both performance and potential.

Part 5 offers guidance on navigating workplace dynamics and building professional relationships. It emphasizes the importance of understanding hidden hierarchies and informal influencers beyond the organizational chart. The text advises on identifying communication styles, behaviors, and unspoken loyalties to avoid missteps and build rapport. Furthermore, it details strategies for initiating and maintaining connections through mindful conversations and proactive engagement. Ultimately, the source underscores that success involves not only individual performance but also the ability to effectively engage with and understand the social fabric of a team.