text explores the history of artificial intelligence (AI), focusing on
periods of rapid advancement ("AI springs") and subsequent periods of
slower progress ("AI winters"). It examines the capabilities of current
AI systems, which are mostly "narrow" or "weak" AI excelling at
specific tasks, contrasting them with the hypothetical "strong" or
"general" AI seen in science fiction. The author discusses the Turing
test as a potential measure of AI's advancement and explores Ray
Kurzweil's prediction of a technological "Singularity" where AI
surpasses human intelligence, contrasting Kurzweil's optimism with
skepticism from other AI experts. Finally, the text considers a wager
on whether AI will pass a rigorous version of the Turing test by 2029.