In the August edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the monsoon in the Southwest this year. They focus on how it compares to past events and long term averages, and discuss the spatial and temporal variability of the storms that occur during the monsoon (i.e. did it rain at your house or not?). As part of their regional roundup, they talk about why (really how) Phoenix has been hogging more monsoon events than usual, and make note of the untapped potential in other parts of the Southwest, where conditions have been ripe for widespread monsoon activity, but has not seen the kind of 'epic' monsoon that Zack (and much of central Tucson) was hoping for. Mike reminds us that over the longer term it eventually evens out, although this is limited comfort for those who are on the losing (i.e. dry) end of the range of monsoon precipitation to date.  The bet for the monsoon total had Zack guessing 5.75" and Mike at 7.5" (and Ben wins if they both go over). The Tucson Airport is currently sitting at 4.81”…which means Zack might be in the driver’s seat as it needs to hit 6.63 for Mike to win. The peak period of monsoon activity is starting to wind down, but tropical storms that veer back into the Southwest are still on the table, so we'll wait and see.

The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this& onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months.

They also& settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measurable precipitation" at the Tucson Airport, and what will be the July total.& Mike guessed 10 days with rain and 3.5 inches, while Zack guessed 12 days with rain and 4 inches (as a note: as of July 11, the count stands at 4 days and 1.33 inches). Last month's bet was for the highest recorded temperature in June - Mike won with a guess of 109 (Zack guessed 110), while the actual value was 107.

Finally, regarding& their guesses for the entire monsoon& - Zack guessed& 5.75" and Mike& 7.5"& for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.& The current value is 1.61" (as of July 12) which is a bit ahead of average, but was augmented by the non-quite-monsoon activity July 15-16.

The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months.

They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measurable precipitation" at the Tucson Airport, and what will be the July total.  Mike guessed 10 days with rain and 3.5 inches, while Zack guessed 12 days with rain and 4 inches (as a note: as of July 11, the count stands at 4 days and 1.33 inches). Last month's bet was for the highest recorded temperature in June - Mike won with a guess of 109 (Zack guessed 110), while the actual value was 107.

Finally, regarding their guesses for the entire monsoon - Zack guessed 5.75" and Mike  7.5" for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.  The current value is 1.61" (as of July 12) which is a bit ahead of average, but was augmented by the non-quite-monsoon activity July 15-16.

In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement.  First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year.

In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. This month, Zack and Mike report on the results of their May podcast bet, guessing how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - tune in to the podcast to hear who won.  For the June podcast, they put their best guess as to the maximum temperature we'll see in Tucson in June.  The record maximum in June is 117 (and the lowest high temp recorded in June was 107) - Mike guessed 109, and Zack guessed 110.  they also put forth their monsoon guesses - with Zack at 5.75" and Mike at 7.5' for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.  We'll see!

In the May 2018 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss May's weather and climate, especially the windy conditions that seem to fire up every year around this time, and the role that plays in wildfire season.  They also discuss the precipitation history of the past year, reflecting on the low precipitation totals across most of the Southwest, but how concentrated the rain events were in Southern Arizona (July during last the monsoon, and a good run of storms in February).  This leads them to a discussion of drought in the region, which they discuss in terms of recent conditions, how this compares to other droughts in the past 20 years, and the data and information drought experts use to monitor regional drought conditions.

As per usual, there's a friendly wager on the line. Zack "won" last month’s bet guessing the first day over 100 degrees in May (in 2018, it was May 6). In this episode they guess how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - we'll see who won in the June 2018 SW Climate Podcast.

CLIMAS Member(s):  

Ben McMahan

Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They& break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and& wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.

In the February 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido chat about what's been going on in the Southwest over the past few months, since we last recorded a podcast.  In terms of precipitation, the answer is not much, unless the day in question is also a podcast day - the weather has an odd - but welcome - habit of raining on days we record the podcast.  In terms of temperature, the record to near record heat remains a key part of the winter story.

Specifically, Mike and Zack discuss the conditions of the past 1-3 months, focusing on the overall lack of precipitation in the Southwest, meager snowpack, above average temperatures, and impacts associated with warmer and drier than average winters, including an early start to fire season in Arizona. They also discuss the atmospheric patterns that have led to the elevated temperatures and lack of precipitation in the SW, and what changed in the past week that brought much needed moisture and cooler conditions to parts of Arizona and New Mexico. They also grapple with the prospects of a "miracle March" that could pull seasonal precipitation totals back up to near average, and whether we have any shot at this (spoiler: chances aren't great). They also discuss if this were to happen, whether it could quickly reverse long term precipitation deficits and drought impacts (again, unlikely). They wrap up with a discussion of the current La Niña event and the role it has played in the Southwest, as well as what the seasonal outlooks have to say about the next few months.

Materials discussed in this episode:

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the regional temperature and precip of the past 30-90 days, including the mostly above average temperatures, the very dry conditions, and the recent precipitation event that hit parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. They also discuss the California wildfires in the context of the Santa Ana winds, years of persistent drought, and the convergence of conditions that set the stage for the current crisis in California - with an eye towards what conditions in Arizona and New Mexico look like for this coming fire season. They wrap up with a discussion of – you guessed it – La Niña, including connecting the current conditions to the larger arc of persistent drought, seasonal fire risk, and what we might expect looking forward (including a friendly wager on guesses for cool season precip).

Materials Discussed in this episode:

In the Nov 2017& episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discussion temperature and precipitation in the Southwest over the past month or so, and& the discrepancy between Arizona and New Mexico re: precipitation.& They also dive into ENSO and the emergent (weak) La Niña conditions, and what this might mean, taking a close look at last year (another weak La NIña) and other weak La NIña events of the past decades. They wrap up with a quick summary of the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest.