Cocktail Investing

Download Episode This week, Tematica's investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins face-palmed after learning the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) has been compromised in a cyber-attack. This ironic breach mere days after Equifax broke the news on its breach… as we discuss, this increasing pain point that spills out of our Connected Society investing theme is fodder for our Safety & Security one. As our portfolio mixologists touch on that, they dish on the Fed's latest missive coming out of its September monetary policy meeting and on a variety of data points for our Connected Society, Food with Integrity and Fattening of the Population investing themes. Chris and Lenore also mix in the latest economic data, and share why S&P 500 Global Ratings' first rating cut to China's sovereign credit rating in nearly two decades is important for investors.

• After last week's not-too-special event, we share our view on why it's so disappointing there are connectivity issues with the new Apple Watch model even before it begins to ship.
• As Apple tries to get itself back on track, Google is scooping up the team at smartphone company HTC that helped Google develop its Pixel phone. We share why Google is making this move and it's got something to do with its core search business. Here's a hint – it isn't good news.
• Why is Post Holdings pivoting its business with the purchase of the packaged foods business at Bob Evans? Believe it or not, it's all about the sausage!
• What do drones in Greece and being a neighbor of comedian Kathy Griffin have in common? The answer ties into one of our investing themes.
• Who's hiring and who's not hiring for the year-end holiday shopping season? Part of the answer ties to where people are shopping for toys that is part of our Connected Society theme.
• What's the story behind Panera Bread CEO Ron Shaich challenging McDonald's, Wendy's and other fast food companies? The answer ties into our Food with Integrity investing theme and if you've seen the documentary Super Size Me you can guess where this is going. You can practically see Lenore roll her eyes at the response from McDonald's.
• The Fed expects to hike interest four times before the end of 2018 as it embarks on selling securities on its QE bloated balance sheet, but its economic forecast calls for year over year declines in 2018 and 2019. As Chris and Lenore face-palm, they put some much-needed perspective on this, and explain the real reasons for the Fed's actions.
• Over the coming week, we'll be eyeing several key economic reports, including the Flash U.S. September PMI report, the August reports for Durable Orders and Personal Income & Spending. We'll also be watching Hurricane Maria as we look to get a final tally on hurricane-related damage and what it means to 3Q 2017 GDP.

Companies mentioned on this podcast

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Bob Evans (BOBE)
• Burger King (QSR)
• Equifax (EFX)
• HTC
• KB Home (KBH)
• Kohl's (KSS)
• Panera Bread (PNRA)
• Post Holdings (POST)
• Macy's (M)
• McDonald's (MCD)
• Nest
• Nordstrom (JWN)
• Target (TGT)
• Toys R Us
• United Natural Foods (UNFI)
• Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Wendy's (WEN)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Program's we're currently streaming:

• Versace: Netflix's Jerry Before Seinfeld
• Hawkins: Too much travel for any streaming, been reading "The Well-Tuned Brain" by Peter Whybrow, M.D.

Download Episode In this special excerpt from Episode 33 of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, Lenore Hawkins discusses that while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is likening Bitcoin to the Dutch tulip bulbs bubble in the 1600's, the reality is we are just in the early innings of cryptocurrencies. The question is, can Bitcoin maintain its pole position, or is its fate similar to that of many of the early internet pioneers? Tune into this quick primer on cryptocurrencies (just 6:30 in length) and its impact on our Cashless Consumption investment theme.

Download Episode This week, Tematica's investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins start off the podcast talking about one of the lamest presentations they've seen in a number of years. Yes, we're talking about Apple's September special event held on September 12th. Rather than spoil it for you here, all we'll say is we knew the event was headed downhill fast when the first thing mentioned about the new iPhone was the pretty colors it would come in. We share our takeaways and insights for that event as well as for the latest economic data and thematic signals that are the backbone of our thematic investing lens.

• We share why we were nonplussed with Apple's new iPhones and other product updates as well as its one true surprise to come – wireless charging. Essentially, we see these efforts as just shoring up Apple's market position rather than breaking new ground. Looking at the Apple ecosystem, however, we see several companies that are poised to benefit from technologies being deployed in the new Apple Watch as well as the iPhone X. Chris shares his view on which companies are poised to benefit as these new products hit shelves in the coming weeks.
• Much like Apple's shares that were climbing in anticipation of this week's reveal, the overall stock market has continued to move higher despite growing number of warning signs. We shared several market unnerving items earlier in the week and now we've added Euro junk bond yields falling below that for U.S Treasuries to the list. Yep, you heard us right, and Lenore explains why this is important.
• With football season underway (that's American football, Lenore), we're already seeing broadcast viewership dropping like a bad fumble compared to last year. We explain how our Connected Society theme is at work, and what it means for broadcast networks as Facebook, Amazon and Google focus on content, including live sports.
• We've been vocal about the "death of the mall," but team Tematica was pleasantly surprised by Nordstrom's new strategy to leverage services to fend off Amazon and others. Listen to our take on what this means and some speculation on our part as to what may follow.
• Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are making headlines, but why is JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon likening Bitcoin to tulip bulbs? Lenore digs into this and shares why we are just in the early innings of cryptocurrencies.
• The latest JOLTS provided ample confirmation for our Tooling & Retooling investment theme. Barring some trade and immigration reform, the report also signaled the speed of the domestic economy is likely capped. We explain why that is as well as why the August PPI reading isn't helping the Fed meet its inflation target.
• Over the coming week, we'll be eyeing several key economic reports, including August Retail Sales, as well as the Fed's September FOMC meeting on September 20. We expect Hurricane Harvey to show some disruption in the August Retail Sales Report, but it's the combined impact of Harvey and Irma that might have a more cautious tone coming out of the Fed next week.

Companies mentioned on this podcast

• Alibaba (BABA)
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Applied Materials (AMAT)
• AT&T (T)
• AXT Inc. (AXTI)
• Comcast (CMCSA)
• Costco Wholesale (COST)
• CVS Health (CVS)
• Equifax (EFX)
• Facebook (FB)
• Hulu
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• Nordstrom (JWN)
• Qorvo (QRVO)
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
• Universal Display (OLED)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Program's we're currently streaming:

• Versace: HBO's Game of Thrones, Season 7
• Hawkins: Netflix's The Defenders

Download Episode This week, Tematica's investing mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins start off the podcast copping to the fact that, much to their chagrin, the summer is over, and it's back to work. As they've pointed out to listeners, September is typically one of if not the most tumultuous months for stocks, and between both North Korea and Hurricane Harvey the month is certainly starting off rocking and rolling as CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index understandably sits firmly in "fear" territory. As we turn our thematic gaze forward, however, there is much more to be concerned about, as well as a number of confirming data points for Tematica's 17 investment themes:

• On the heels of Hurricane Harvey, we now have Hurricane Irma barreling down on the Caribbean with its sights set on Florida. Irma has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane, and is widely believed to be one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes ever. Moreover, it's looking to be followed by tropical storm Jose. Odds are this trifecta of back-to-back-to-back storms will hit the economy in a meaningful way, and we expect to see third-quarter GDP forecasts drop as effect of Irma and Jose wind down. The combination is also poised to result in a number of items falling into our Scarce Resource investment theme in the short-term while goosing demand for building and infrastructure materials as well as autos in the coming quarters.
• We're already seeing the impact of this very active hurricane season as companies ranging from United Continental (CCL), Carnival Corp. (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) scuttle aircraft and ships due to dangerous weather conditions. We expect retail and restaurants, which have already borne the brunt of weakening traffic and sales even before Harvey, to be in for a rough ride as well.
• We discuss new reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve that confirm our Cash-Strapped Consumer theme, plus share what it means that Wal-Mart (WMT) is already offering its holiday layaway plan.
• Connected Society company Facebook (FB) is targeting Slack and Google (GOOGL) Hangouts as it looks to attack the enterprise messaging market with WhatsApp. The question we ask is how many messaging apps does a person need? Can our Connected Society get overly connected?
• We reveal the biggest factor taking a bite out of income growth over the last few years is all about what happens on Capitol Hill as Taxes and Health Insurance expenditures profoundly outpace income growth. That is just not a sustainable trend.
• There are two new IPOs being filed – Connected Society player Roku (ROKU) and Content is King contender Rovi – and, and Chris and Lenore share their views on potential challenges ahead for these two companies.
• Next week we not only have several key economic reports, including August Retail Sales, Industrial Production and closely watched inflation metrics, but also Apple's (AAPL) unwrapping of its next iPhone and several other new products. Listen in to hear what to expect and what's at stake.

Companies mentioned on this podcast

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Carnival Corp. (CCL)
• Costco Wholesale (COST)
• General Motors (GM)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH)
• Roku (ROKU)
• Rovio Entertainment (ROVIO)
• Royal Caribbean (RCL)
• TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
• Twitter (TWTR)
• United Continental (UAL)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Books we're currently reading:

• Versace: The Mind Illuminated
• Hawkins: Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are

Our hearts go out to all those affected by the devastation in Texas and Louisiana. The magnitude of this incredible storm is such that in this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the impact of Hurricane Harvey, how it relates to some of our investing Themes, as well as the week's economic data, and relevant political happenings.

• What we know? Hurricane Harvey is in a class of its own, having delivered the greatest amount of rain ever recorded in the lower 48 states from a single storm. One of the areas hardest hit has been Houston, the 4th largest city in the United States.
• What does it mean? The magnitude of the storm damage, which is still being tabulated, is looking to be the most expensive the nation has ever experienced. Enki Research, a group that calculates risks and costs of hurricanes, tsunamis, and other natural disasters, says the "middle-of-the-road" estimate for Harvey ranges from $48 to $75 billion, while Accuweather projected it to be around $190 billion.
• Why is this important? There are no two ways about it - GDP expectations near-term are going to get hit, just the way they were after Hurricane Katrina. We walk you through the whys and share what this likely means for any potential Fed rate hike come September, as well as the potential impact on the upcoming debt ceiling and tax reform debates.
• We cut through some of the talk in the media about how this will be an eventual boon to GDP and point out how this is another example of Frederick Bastiat's parable of the broken window. You know you are dying to learn what that is all about!
• Among the industries that will feel the post-Harvey pain, are the already struggling restaurants and retailers. We share our take on what other areas are vulnerable and where investors can find opportunities as the flooding subsides and the conversation focuses on rebuilding Houston.

For those looking to donate to the victims of Harvey, here are some options:

• Houston Food Bank
• Food Bank of Corpus Cristi
• Houston Humane Society
• Crowdfunding through YouCaring for Victims of Hurricane Harvey organized by Houston Texan Defensive End J. J. Watt
• Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund
• Texas Diaper Bank
• Before donating to any organization, please first check them out using Charity Navigator if you aren't already familiar with them.

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Download Episode Amid the 2Q 2017 earnings onslaught, Chris Versace, Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, and Lenore Hawkins, Tematica's Chief Macro Strategist, are combing through more than 600 earnings reports this week. With companies ranging from Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), Lam Research (LRCX), PayPal (PYPL), MasterCard (MA) and Caterpillar (CAT) to name several, all reporting, there is no shortage of data points to be had. Rather than skip this week's podcast, we're sharing our recent Thematic Summit that we held for our institutional subscribers on June 28, 2017. These conference calls include a deeper look at the economy and markets, but in particular in-depth discussion on a number of things as they relate to the Tematica Select List. The Select List is our recommended list of stocks, ETF's and mutual funds that have the strongest thematic tailwinds and the most upside potential at current market conditions. It's part of our Tematica Investing product, which you can read more about here. With positions in companies like Amplify Snacks (BETR), Universal Display (OLED), and CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) that significantly outperformed the market averages in 2017, we strongly suspect you'll enjoy our thoughts on the Select List Enjoy today's episode and we'll be back next week with a brand new one that should be extra special as Chris will be in Singapore to keynote INVEST 2017 as well as teach a master class in thematic investing. Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Amplify Snacks (BETR)
• Applied Materials (AMAT)
• CalAmp Corp. (CAMP)
• Costco Wholesale (COST)
• Facebook (FB)
• Universal Display (OLED)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Download Episode As the 2Q 2017 earnings onslaught continued this week, Chris Versace, Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, made his way to Singapore to keynote INVESTFair 2017. In this week's episode, Chris catches up with Lenore Hawkins, Tematica's Chief Macro Strategist, and shares his first-hand findings that Singapore is embracing Tematica's Cashless Consumption investing theme. The two then talked about other notable developments with regard to Cashless Consumption as Microsoft's (MSFT) Skype brings the ability to "send money" through its new partnership with PayPal (PYPL), and India's Paytm targets Facebook (FB) as it morphs its payments platform to include messaging. Could riding the Connected Society and Cashless Consumption tailwinds make Paytm India's answer to WeChat, which serves nearly one billion users in China? Rounding out our thematic conversation, we hear once again that body cameras aren't always friendly to police officers… ah, how some forget what always on, always connected means. Last week we shared our Thematic Summit that wrapped 2Q 2017. In today's episode, Lenore and Chris review the latest data that once again raises questions over the speed of the economy. Whether it's a consumer that looks increasingly tapped out or credit card issuers that are raising their charge off rates, there are reasons to be concerned about the consumer's ability to spend in the coming months. We also check in on weekly railcar traffic, which like ISM Service reading for July took a sharp tumble month over month, confirming the pain being felt by General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F) and other automotive OEMs continues in the process. Finally, while the US stock market continues to inch its way higher, Lenore reveals there is a Donald Trump like yuuuge concentration in what's been driving the market higher of late. Here's a hint, if you don't Apple (AAPL) or Boeing (BA), you're probably lagging the market. Lenore also explains what's going on with the dollar, and why the domestic stock market is underperforming on a relative basis. Enjoy today's episode, and be back next week when we get more on Chris's Singapore trip, including his experience with Amazon's (AMZN) Prime Now, and hear all about Lenore's appearances on Fox Business, a network that is now solidly kicking CNBC's rear in the ratings. Companies Mentioned on the Podcast:

• Amazon (AMZN)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Boeing (BA)
• Facebook (FB)
• Ford Motor (F)
• General Motors (GM)
• MasterCard (MA)
• PayPal (PYPL)

Resources for this Podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Download Episode

In this special excerpt from Episode 28 of the Cocktail Investing Podcast, hosts Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss what a unique approach by a panhandler tells us about the state of our Cashless Consumption investment theme and how it reflects the explosion of Mobile Payments across emerging markets.

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals.

• The Republicans' plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act has fallen flat, which calls into question the ability to pass the substantive tax reforms upon which market valuations have been based.
• The timing of tax reform legislation is looking like it will go head to head with not only when the Congressional Budget Office expects the federal government to hit the debt ceiling, but also during the height of 2017 election campaigning.
• We continue to see more data pointing to a slowing domestic economy even as the stock market continues to melt higher as we enter 2Q 2017 earnings season. Lenore explains why greater growth opportunities outside the US might offer more attractive returns for investors.
• Here at U.S. shores, what to make of new market highs amid stretched valuations and some funky business with the VIX.
• Our view on why Netflix's belief that "negative free cash flow will be an indicator of enormous success" is worrisome, and why Amazon is likely to put serious pressure on Netflix's ability to raise prices.
• Despite the focus by Apple and others on mobile payments and our Cashless Consumption thematic investment theme, Alibaba and Tencent are killing it in China where even panhandlers are using QR codes.
• NBC News snuggles up to Snapchat, but we share why Facebook's latest moves continue to set it apart from other the social media platforms.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alibaba (BABA)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• American Express (AXP)
• Ameriprise Financial (AMP)
• Bank of America (BAC)
• Charles Schwab (SCHW)
• CSX (CSX)
• Facebook (FB)
• Harley Davidson (HOG)
• MasterCard
• Netflix NFLX)
• Snap (SNAP)
• Starbucks (SBUX)
• Stifel Financial (XXX)
• Tencent (TCHEY)
• Twitter (TWTR)
• United Parcel Service (UPS)
• Visa (V)
• Walt Disney (DIS)
• WW Grainger (GWW)
• Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals.

• As of the close on Thursday, July 13, 2017, the Nasdaq 100 index had 5 consecutive days of gains. The last time we saw this was over 5 months ago. If this rally continues it will be a bullish sign for equities in at least the short-term.
• The Nasdaq powered higher, led by our Connected Society investing theme, as "FANG" stocks moved now above their 50-day moving averages – another bullish indicator.
• However, while the financial headlines keep touting the strength of U.S. equities, the S&P 500 has actually been one of the weaker indices year-to-date on a broader international basis: the French ETF (EWQ) up over 18 percent, Germany's (EWG) up over 16 percent, Spain's (EWP), and Italy's (EWI) up over 18 percent. Even Mexico, despite the talk of a wall, has gained over 26 percent year-to-date. In emerging markets, India's (IDX) is up over 25 percent and Turkey's (TUR) is up over 30 percent.
• Europe's Industrial Production is also showing much more strength than the U.S. with the Euro area up 4 percent year-over-year versus the U.S. up just 2.2 percent. We discuss what it means for our Economic Acceleration/Deceleration theme. As we see the Federal Reserve and many of the other major central banks around the world shift from looking for reasons to provide liquidity to looking for ones to withdraw it, it is important that we keep a few things in mind. We've never had monetary policy like this in size or substance. The likelihood that it can be unwound without bumps along the way in a world in which policy effects are felt incredibly fast on a global level… unlikely to say the least. We review just how prescient the Fed has been in the past.
• From a thematic perspective, we see more evidence that the move to Cashless Consumption is accelerating around the world and may be particularly impactful in those markets, primarily emerging economies, that previously had poor retail financial infrastructure.
• Amazon's Prime Day seriously knocked the ball out of the park, again, and gives us further insight into just how much buying habits are changing as part of our Connected Society investing theme. For context, retails sales in the U.S. are also weaker than in much of the rest of the world, up just 3.8 percent year-over-year versus France up 4.2 percent, Spain up 5.7 percent, India up 11.8 percent and China up 10.7 percent.
• Our Scarce Resources theme has been keeping an eye on OPEC moves and we were utterly unsurprised to see that, shocker, members aren't exactly in compliance.
• Near and dear to our hearts, and our Guilty Pleasure investing theme, it's looking like both coffee and wine are positives for our Aging of the Population investing theme.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alibabaa (BABA)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• GrubHub (GRUB)
• Starbucks (SBUX)
• United Parcel Service (UPS)
• Visa (V)
• Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting