Cocktail Investing

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals.

• America woke up on Independence Day morning to learn that North Korea is now capable of landing an ICBM in Alaska, highlighting one aspect of our Safety and Security investing theme. The next day the markets yawned.
• Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the meeting notes from its most recent meeting on rates in which we saw that most blamed the PCE deflationary trend on telecom and prescriptions. Hmmm, while we have seen downward pricing pressure in these areas, removing them shows very little impact on the year-over-year changes in the 3-month moving average for PCE. (Say that five times fast)
• ISM Manufacturing and Markit Manufacturing reports painted a very different picture with the U.S. Census data more in line with Markit's more negative view than the ISM's upbeat finding.
• A recent Bespoke survey found that online shopping continues to growth with 49 percent of respondents having skipped visiting any major brick-and-mortar retailer and 59 percent reported having bought something from Amazon in the past month.
• German auto supplier Robert Bosch reported a surge in demand for radar systems and video sensors, we discuss what that means for the auto sector as part of our Disruptive Technology investing theme.
• More evidence of the rise of our Cashless Consumption theme was found in the latest Federal Reserve report on consumer and business payment habits.
• Finally, Amazon's latest move into the world of wine combined with the new Amazon shopping wand has your hosts discussing the risks of bursts of boozy buying.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• American Outdoor Brands (AOBC) parent of Smith & Wesson
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Axon Enterprise (AAXN) owns Taser
• Bosch Group
• Dillards (DDS)
• Facebook (FB)
• Hanesbrands (HBI)
• Hudson's Bay (HBAYF) parents of Saks Fifth Avenue
• JC Penny Co (JCP)
• King Vintners
• Kohl's (KSS)
• Macy's (M)
• Nordstrom (JWN)
• Green Flash Brewing Company
• Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR)
• Tesla (TSLA)
• True Religion
• Volvo (VLVLY)
• Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com

What we can learn from the Petya and WannaCry attacks with Gray Hall, Chairman & CEO of Alert Logic along with our take on the weakening economic data

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. We then have a fascinating discussion with the Chairman & CEO of Alert Logic, Gray Hall.

A few highlights include:

• Tuesday the U.S. Dollar experienced its worst day in three months after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave an optimistic speech on the state of the Eurozone economy, citing improving political tailwinds and a reemergence of reflationary pressures.
• While the Eurozone continues to show signs of acceleration, this week's Durables report showed an economy stuck in slow gear with both core shipments and orders falling 2 percent month-over-month versus expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent. While that doesn't sound too good, digging deeper we found something more concerning for those high-flying technology stocks.
• Big U.S. banks plan to increase their dividend payouts and share buybacks to their highest level in years after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved capital plans for all 34 firms that took part in its annual stress tests. While this may provide some lift for bank stocks, we discuss why this doesn't necessarily translate into optimism for the economy overall.
• We discuss the level of complacency we see all around as the VIX volatility index has dropped below 10 more times in 2017 alone than in the 22 years prior to 2017.
• While GM had issued a cut to its 2017 auto forecast — surprising no one at Tematica and we've all seen the same pain in the oil sector — analysts are doing little in the way of revising earnings for the rest of 2017. Considering those ripple effects, it's quite the head scratcher as we head into 2Q 2017 earnings.
• Finally, while the mainstream financial media keeps up expectations for accelerating growth in the back half of the year, the bond market is telling a different story.

In our discussion with Gray Hall, Chairman and CEO of Alert Logic, we gained valuable insight into the cybersecurity landscape and the rising need for Security-as-a-Service as more companies move to the cloud. We covered such topics as:

• How cybersecurity needs and providers are evolving along with technology platforms such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft's Azure and Google Cloud.
• Where hacks typically initiate and what that means for your company or those you invest in
• How Alert Logic defines its customers in a way that is very different from most cybersecurity firms… and why they are likely ahead of the pack in thinking this way
• Why advanced analytics such as machine learning is mission critical for cybersecurity's road ahead as the cloud is poised to continue its rapid growth vs. on-premise solutions.
• The evolving landscape for cloud platforms, and much more

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alert Logic
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Blue Apron (APRN)
• Facebook (FB)
• General Motors (GM)
• Microsoft (MSFT)
• Oracle (ORCL)
• Snap (SNAP)
• Twitter (TWTR)
• Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Alert Logic - https://www.alertlogic.com/ , @AlertLogic

With a couple of recent moves by Amazon (AMZN), we now count six — SIX! — investment themes where the company isn't just touching on a category, but fundamentally changing it and how the mainstay companies are able to compete, let alone survive.

In this special excerpt of Episode 24 of Cocktail Investing, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins dig into several recent moves made by Jeff Bezos and the Amazon management team and what it means not just for consumers, but investors as a whole, and which companies it spells trouble for.

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include:

• While most Wall Street economists are still forecasting Q2 GDP to be around 3 percent, the NY Fed's Nowcast and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow are below 2 percent, with an even lower forecast for Q3. We point out what they are likely seeing that the usual Wall Street suspects are missing and why this could be problematic for 2Q 2017 earnings season.
• With the first half of 2017 almost over, only one other year going all the way back to 1928 has had a smaller maximum drawdown in equity indices during the first half. Find out what tends to happen in years where the first half sees such a steady move up.
• The yield curve is giving us a very different message from the major equity indices. We discuss what and why this is important for investors.
• We talk about what is happening in oil, on the demand as well as supply side, and what it means for the economy, geopolitics and earnings expectations for not only oil companies but the entire S&P 500.
• We wrap up our discussion with a focus on Amazon (AMZN) on its whirlwind of recent announcements from its acquisition of Whole Foods (WFM) to Nike (NKE) now selling some of it products directly to the online giant. We also explain why is THE poster child for thematic investing.
• Finally, as if retail isn't suffering enough from the retailing Death Star of Amazon, we discuss why a new report on retail and the food & beverage industries is a positive for our Safety & Security investing theme.

And be sure to tune into next week's podcast when Lenore and Chris talk with Security-as-a-Service provider Alert Logic about the evolving world of cybersecurity. All that plus what to focus on next week and of course all the usual Cocktail Investing Podcast goodness.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Amazon (AMZN)
• Amplify Snack Brands (BETR)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Bonobos
• BP (BP)
• Chevron (CVX)
• Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
• Finish Line (FINL)
• Foot Locker (FL)
• Kroger (KR)
• Marathon Oil (MRO)
• Nike (NKE)
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
• Safeway Inc.
• United Natural Foods (UNFI)
• Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Yum Brands (YUM)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com

It seems every day we hear about the inevitability of the autonomous car, a component of our Disruptive Technology investing theme, with many hoping that it will usher in a new area of safety. To better understand the evolution of the smarter vehicle, Tematica Research's mixologists Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins spoke with Ted Cardenas, Senior Vice President of Marketing, Car Electronics Division at Pioneer Electronics Corp (PNCOY). Pioneer isn't just innovating within entertainment and communications as the company is also developing advanced driver assist for both OEM and aftermarket, allowing owners of older cars to benefit from the latest in safety improvements. When asked about his expectations around the timeline for the truly driverless car, Ted framed his analysis in the context of the evolution of in-car GPS systems – an evolution by degrees rather than a binary event.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alphabet (AAPL)
• Apple (AAPL)
• BMW (BMWYY)
• Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)
• Intel (INTC)
• Pandora (P)
• Pioneer Electronics (PNCOY)
• Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Pioneer Electronics - http://www.pioneerelectronics.com/PUSA/

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include:

• (02:50) The International Triple Threat: While attention is focused on the UK elections, there are three other risks that are coming into focus in Europe, including North Korean leader Kim Jon Un, Beppe Grillo potentially becoming the Italian Prime Minister and the current ongoings in Washington.
• (06:36) Lenore Gets Jolted from the JOLTS! Why the April JOLTS report served as strong reminder that several headwinds to economic liftoff remain… hint: it's good news for our Tooling &Retooling investment theme.
• (11:42) Biz Roundtable: Curb Your Enthusiasm: Despite the Business Roundtable's upbeat CEO Economic Outlook Index for the current quarter, standalone comments from Wells Fargo and Toronto-Dominion paint a much different picture.
• (20:50) Why we're not surprised by the Citibank Economic Surprise Index is at its lowest level since the end of October… making the Trump Bump into the Trump Slump
• (38:22) WWDC 2017: Our view on why Apple's 2017 WWDC event was far more snooze than wow
• (46:40) What hot cosmetics retailer is embracing virtual reality
• (49:40) Why consumers are even more likely to embrace our Cashless Consumption investing theme.
• (53:30) How McDonald's… yes, McDonald's is embracing our Food with Integrity investing theme.

And be sure to tune into next week's podcast when Lenore and Chris talk with digital entertainment product company Pioneer about why it's stoked about the Connected Car and what will happen when the Connected Car and autonomous driving come together. All that plus what to focus on next week and of course all the usual Cocktail Investing Podcast goodness.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Blackrock (BLK)
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
• Citibank (C)
• Honda Motor Company (HMC)
• LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMUY)
• Macy's (M)
• McDonald's (MCD)
• Michael Kors (KOHR)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• Nordstrom (JWN)
• PepsiCo (PEP)
• Sears (SHLD)
• Toronto Dominion (TD)
• Ulta Beauty & Salon (ULTA)
• Visa (V)
• Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Wells Fargo (WFC)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 21 of Cocktail Investing. While the amount of wealth accumulating in China is staggering, the reality is that it is India where the big opportunities could be for investors. Listen in as Cocktail Investing hosts Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace discuss the realities of the Aging of the Population investment theme creating headwinds in China, versus India, which has a much younger population. Subscribe to the podcast on: iTunes ( itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... ) Or as always on www.TematicaResearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 2 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, your hosts Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace dig into the realities of today's housing market and the uncomfortable reality that it's feeling more and more like 2007 again when it comes to housing and mortgages.

Subscribe to the podcast on:

iTunes ( https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... )

Or as always on http://www.TematicaResearch.com

Tune in for the special excerpt from Episode 21 of Cocktail Investing. In this segment, Tematica Chief Macro Strategist Lenore Hawkins (the Bond Girl) digs into the realities of the Trump Bump transitioning into the Trump Slump this summer and the 2 Bond ETF's that are poised to gather even more AUM.

Subscribe to the podcast on:

iTunes ( https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/c... ) Stitcher ( http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/temat... )

Or as always on http://www.TematicaResearch.com

In this week's program, Tematica's investing mixologists, Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins discuss the week's economic data, relevant political happenings and share where they have spotted a few of the latest Thematic Signals. A few highlights include:

• Americans continue to be heavy consumers of digital content, but a new report from Zenith sheds some light on how mobile consumption has altered the playing field. We discuss what it means for the AT&T and Time Warner merger, as well as Dycom Industries.
• A reality check on recent economic data shows why the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed recently cut GDP expectations for 2Q 2017.
• Why the Trump Bump is increasingly looking like the summer's Trump Slump
• Why Americans are making fewer and fewer… well more than fewer… more like 433 million fewer lunchtime visits to restaurants and what it means for Darden and other casual dining restaurants. Plus how does Costco fit into the picture?
• While the investing herd continues to focus on China, we share why India is showing up more and more on our investment radar when it comes to the Rise of the New Middle Class
• We also share out thoughts on upcoming calendar items including Apple's WWDC next week, the ECB's June 8th meeting and the Fed's next monetary policy meeting set for June 13-14. Here's a sneak peak, the Fed likely only needs to see "good enough" data to boost rates at that meeting.

Companies mentioned on the Podcast

• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• American Airlines (AAL)
• Apple (AAPL)
• AT&T (T)
• British Airways (BAIRY)
• Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
• Comcast (CMCSA)
• Costco Wholesale (COST)
• Darden (DRI)
• Dycom Industries (DY)
• Facebook (FB)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
• Time Warner (TWX)
• United Continental (UAL)
• Verizon Communications (VZ)

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace - @_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins - @EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research - https://www.tematicaresearch.com