Commodity Compass Weekly

This was the week the Iran war moved from a supply shock to something closer to an existential market event. Four things happened, and every one of them lands on Monday. April 6th is shaping up to be one of the more consequential market opens in recent memory.

This week’s commodity story came down to three data points, and none of them were bullish for a resolution. Iran’s IRGC turned back two Chinese-flagged vessels — CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean — owned by China’s state shipping giant, less than 48 hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly promised safe passage to ships from five friendly nations, China among them. That promise lasted two days. Washington postponed — again. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants, pushing the threat out to April 6th. And finally, White House proposals went nowhere.

Commodity markets were driven by one overwhelming reality this week: the Middle East conflict moved from a war narrative to an energy system story. After earlier strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the week was defined by the widening fallout — attacks spread across major oil and gas sites in the Gulf, Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, and the commercial viability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became a daily question rather than a tail risk.

This week, commodity markets traded under the shadow of a single question: what happens if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a battlefield? After last week’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the story shifted from the initial shock to the consequences. Through the week, Iran stepped up threats against shipping lanes in the Gulf while the U.S. and its allies moved additional naval assets into the region, forcing energy markets to constantly reassess the risk of supply disruption.

The commodity complex was thrown into one of the most geopolitically charged environments we’ve seen in years this week. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets escalated tensions across the Middle East and immediately forced markets to reprice risk. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves—saw shipping slow dramatically, with insurers pulling coverage and tanker traffic collapsing as the region turned into a conflict zone.

This was a week where volatility wasn’t random — it had a trigger. The release of the Citrini report sent shockwaves through high-multiple tech names, reigniting questions around valuation, liquidity sensitivity, and just how fragile the AI-led equity rally might be. That pressure in growth stocks quickly bled into broader risk sentiment, and by midweek the tape felt defensive rather than euphoric. At the same time, rhetoric toward Iran turned sharply hawkish, with clear U.S. military positioning into the weekend raising the risk premium across global markets. The combination of tech instability and geopolitical escalation created a classic rotation trade — capital moved out of momentum equities and into hard assets. Safe-haven demand in gold and silver built steadily throughout the week, not in a panic spike, but in persistent accumulation.

This week was a headline trader’s market. The Supreme Court’s decision to take up challenges related to presidential tariff authority reintroduced uncertainty around trade policy, and that uncertainty rippled through metals and energy. At the same time, renewed U.S. military movements in the Middle East — including repositioning of naval assets — injected a fresh geopolitical risk premium into crude and safe-haven flows.

This week, commodities traded in a market that was recalibrating fast. U.S. inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the disinflation trend and sending Treasury yields lower across the curve. That drop in rates, paired with a generally weaker U.S. dollar, created a supportive backdrop for hard assets and rate-sensitive commodities. Broadly speaking, the commodity complex leaned constructive — with precious metals finding a bid and energy stabilizing — even as volatility remained elevated.

This week’s commodity session was driven by whiplash volatility across risk assets, with early-week caution giving way to sharp reversals as traders recalibrated macro expectations into Friday. U.S. labor signals helped set the tone: ADP showed just 22,000 private-sector jobs added in January, well below expectations, while weekly jobless claims jumped more than expected, with snowstorms cited as a major driver — all of it feeding the narrative that the labor market is losing momentum at the margin. That softer growth pulse kept rate expectations lively and pushed markets to trade every data point through the lens of “how soon and how deep” policy easing could get in 2026.

This week was defined by a violent correction in precious metals, with both gold and silver pulling back hard after months of relentless upside, as profit-taking, a stronger U.S. dollar, and shifting rate expectations triggered one of the largest weekly drawdowns we’ve seen this cycle. A major macro headline hanging over markets was the growing buzz that Kevin Warsh is President Trump’s preferred pick for the next Fed Chair — a nomination viewed as more hawkish and more market-discipline focused, which pushed yields higher and cooled some of the easy-money narrative that had fueled metals. At the same time, the U.S. dollar staged a notable rebound, snapping a multi-week slide and creating mechanical pressure across the entire commodity complex.